UKMT Red October 2019: Lies, dem libs, and polling companies.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Red October 2019: Lies, dem libs, and polling companies.

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A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

A not-very-political friend posted on her timeline that she 'knows what has to be done' and shared a tactical vote thing recommending vote LibDem in her constituency (where that is a reasonable option).

Is it a reasonable option? Haven't the LibDems been lying their asses off about "almost" winning a ton of seats?

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:03

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# ? May 25, 2024 11:33

Pesky Splinter: Feb 16, 2011; A worried pug.

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

Which makes me wonder how long it takes to get a tory prospective candidate selected?

"Will all the nonces, sex offenders and racists please stand up? ... Good you're the new candidate."

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Is it a reasonable option? Haven't the LibDems been lying their asses off about "almost" winning a ton of seats?

For the most part, they're about 15-20k votes behind labour in the seats where labour came second. But it's also emerged that the some of the tactical voting things are hosed, seemingly either basing things on how well a party did at the EU elections, or just flat out wrong, but still telling them to vote libdem.

Pesky Splinter fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Oct 30, 2019

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:04

Rarity: Oct 21, 2010; ~*4 LIFE*~

namesake posted:

Just about all the tactical voting sites are Lib Dem propaganda telling you to vote for them no matter what the actual record is (based on EU election results, etc).

I checked the Getvoting advice for Bristol West and not even they have the cheek to suggest voting Lib Dem here although they did tell me that my vote will make a difference which is easily disproven by Thangam's 40000 majority.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:07

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

lol someone behind the site is trying to defend their methodology

https://twitter.com/pimlicat/status/1189530857108848641?s=20

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:08

quidditch it and quit it: Oct 11, 2012

gently caress it, just donated �13 to Labour (newborn kid, times are hard). Certainly hope it helps a bit.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:08

Communist Thoughts: Jan 7, 2008; Our war against free speech cannot end until we silence this bronze beast!

i made a voting flowchart for your amufement and the education of your friendes and familey

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:08

Skull Servant: Oct 25, 2009

Does anyone have a link to the tweet that's like "David Cameron announced that his government murdered 20 people. Should Jeremy Corbyn step down?"

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:09

Endjinneer: Aug 17, 2005; Fallen Rib

DroneRiff posted:

Dropped £25 each on Labour and Momentum, doing a little bit to help them out.

Also, loving lol at the ever growing list of MPs tapping out before they get crushed in the election.

Yeah, it's hilarious. Amber Rudd is "definitely not finished with politics". Between having a margin of 300 barely votes at the last election and losing the whip, politics is definitely finished with her.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:09

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

i shared a grenfell thing about blaming the firefighters on facebook someone else shared and got a surprising amount of notifications. People are extremely pissed off about it and this report has come out at a bad time for the tories

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:10

Skarsnik: Oct 21, 2008; I...AM...RUUUDE!

Catboy Autonomist posted:

the "cracking open a cold one with the boys" meme was v underrated and died out way too quickly, gonna be honest

It's not as good as the goldeneye one from last time but I enjoyed it anyway

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:10

feedmegin: Jul 30, 2008

Pesky Splinter posted:

For the most part, they're about 15-20k votes behind labour in the seats where labour came second. But it's also emerged that the some of the tactical voting things are hosed, seemingly either basing things on how well a party did at the EU elections, or just flat out wrong, but still telling them to vote libdem.

Funny that.

We're looking into who's running these sites, btw.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:13

Gonzo McFee: Jun 19, 2010

Chucat posted:

The Grenfell news is making me have such a loving meltdown it's unreal.

Apparently people want the head of the LFB to resign and they want to change the stay put policy?

Stay put was the right call if the tory council hadn't put flammable cladding on the sides of the building. But then the government would be to blame so better to risk the lives of everyone by having them run headlong into carbon monoxide filled oxygen vacuums that will spread fire quicker than come to terms with that.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:13

Bape Culture: Sep 13, 2006

Social media is such a bummer isn�t it. Like people you really like and stuff always turn out to have abysmal political opinions. My wife posted a corbyn tweet and a friend who is gay and working class went mental saying the tories were the only sensible option. Like I understand millionaires voting like cunts, but people who vote for their life to directly be shitter blows my mind. Sheep voting for wolves.

Not really any point to this post but only place I can really vent. Thanks.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:22

Pesky Splinter: Feb 16, 2011; A worried pug.

feedmegin posted:

Funny that.

We're looking into who's running these sites, btw.

Oh look. It's the lady Jose posted. Who's that blurry sack of poo poo standing next to her. Can't quite make him out...
https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1189605028048322561

Pesky Splinter fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Oct 30, 2019

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:23

TTerrible: Jul 15, 2005

I live in an extremely pro-brexit safe Tory seat. I've heard a rumour from a gammon relative that Boris might be parachuted in nearby. Good god I need to get out.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:23

Necrothatcher: Mar 26, 2005

After a long and slightly emotionally manipulative campaign I think I've convinced my grandparents to vote Labour for the first time ever. They hate the current batch in government and while they don't like Corbyn either "we can see it means a lot to you".

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:26

Subbz: Nov 4, 2008

This seems on topic as we're heading into an election: Twitter went nuclear.

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1189634360472829952

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:28

Necrothatcher: Mar 26, 2005

Subbz posted:

This seems on topic as we're heading into an election: Twitter went nuclear.

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1189634360472829952

This is a HUGE boost for Labour.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:30

Illuyankas: Oct 22, 2010

Here's that Jeremy vs Boris image as a template btw

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:30

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Bearemy or Joris

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:31

Vitamin P: Nov 19, 2013; Truth is game rigging is more difficult than it looks pls stay ded

Subbz posted:

This seems on topic as we're heading into an election: Twitter went nuclear.

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1189634360472829952

Oh gently caress yes

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:31

Julio Cruz: May 19, 2006

Pesky Splinter posted:

Oh look. It's the lady Jose posted. Who's that blurry sack of poo poo standing next to her. Can't quite make him out...
https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1189605028048322561

I was going to go through every constituency and see what their recommendation is

the first constituency alphabetically is Aldershot - 2017 results:

Con 26950
Lab 15477
LD 3637

guess what the recommendation is

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:36

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Julio Cruz posted:

I was going to go through every constituency and see what their recommendation is

the first constituency alphabetically is Aldershot - 2017 results:

Con 26950
Lab 15477
LD 3637

guess what the recommendation is

If it's not "Blast it with piss" they've already lost me

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:38

Communist Thoughts: Jan 7, 2008; Our war against free speech cannot end until we silence this bronze beast!

added a scottish section to my handy voting flowchart, making it much more hideous

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:39

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

Necrothatcher posted:

This is a HUGE boost for Labour.

Is it? I thought labour was good at social media, doesn't this harm them more?

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:39

Debbie Does Dagon: Jul 8, 2005

https://youtu.be/OFdgR8Zt084

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:40

Necrothatcher: Mar 26, 2005

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

Is it? I thought labour was good at social media, doesn't this harm them more?

It's a ban on paid political advertising, Labour/Momentum have high rates of organic shares, as opposed to the Tories who pay for promoted tweets.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:41

Vitamin P: Nov 19, 2013; Truth is game rigging is more difficult than it looks pls stay ded

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

Is it? I thought labour was good at social media, doesn't this harm them more?

It empowers grassroots people, that organically push political prop, and disempowers money, which pays to push political prop. In the context of the UK money prop getting culled while normal people prop is still allowed decisively benefits Labour.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:44

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Necrothatcher posted:

It's a ban on paid political advertising, Labour/Momentum have high rates of organic shares, as opposed to the Tories who pay for promoted tweets.

Somebody post some images of broken bots tweeting "Hahaha great bants Boris !! &&23//9048U&& "

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:44

kustomkarkommando: Oct 22, 2012

Communist Thoughts posted:

i made a voting flowchart for your amufement and the education of your friendes and familey

Laughs northern irishly

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:48

Beefeater1980: Sep 12, 2008; My God, it's full of Horatios!

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

Is it? I thought labour was good at social media, doesn't this harm them more?

If I�m reading the tweet correctly, they are not banning anyone from posting political content, so momentum can still share whatever. What they are doing is banning anyone from buying their advertising space to use for political messages, which would get it preferential treatment. This is good for mass movements and on point social media, and bad for traditional campaigns and sponsored content.

Overall it should be good for Labour and possibly also Brexit party, and bad for Tories and Lib Dems.

E:f;b

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:48

RabidWeasel: Aug 4, 2007; Cultures thrive on their myths and legends...and snuggles!

Unfortunately there's a good few weeks for the Tories to splurge all of their budget on dodgy ads before they actually start the ban but it's still good (generally speaking it's a good thing even ignoring the election since on aggregate the bad guys always have the most money behind them)

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:48

Pesky Splinter: Feb 16, 2011; A worried pug.

Bape Culture posted:

Social media is such a bummer isn�t it. Like people you really like and stuff always turn out to have abysmal political opinions. My wife posted a corbyn tweet and a friend who is gay and working class went mental saying the tories were the only sensible option. Like I understand millionaires voting like cunts, but people who vote for their life to directly be shitter blows my mind. Sheep voting for wolves.

Not really any point to this post but only place I can really vent. Thanks.

You can still be a minority, or disparaged group or whatever, and still have loving terrible politics, either hoping that you personally won't be hosed over despite supporting horrible policies that only exist to cause harm, or pulling the drawbridge up behind you when other groups have normalised (not the right word I'm looking for - made acceptable I dunno), to poo poo on the latest b�te noire du jour.

Julio Cruz posted:

I was going to go through every constituency and see what their recommendation is

the first constituency alphabetically is Aldershot - 2017 results:

Con 26950
Lab 15477
LD 3637

guess what the recommendation is

I'm sensing a...a diamond shape....a...a. piss diamond.

What a loving shocker.

[e]:

Communist Thoughts posted:

added a scottish section to my handy voting flowchart, making it much more hideous

Noice

Pesky Splinter fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Oct 30, 2019

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:51

Debbie Does Dagon: Jul 8, 2005

Failed Imagineer posted:

Somebody post some images of broken bots tweeting "Hahaha great bants Boris !! &&23//9048U&& "

https://twitter.com/Challengeitnow/status/1187607877281812480

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:53

Vitamin P: Nov 19, 2013; Truth is game rigging is more difficult than it looks pls stay ded

Necrothatcher posted:

It's a ban on paid political advertising, Labour/Momentum have high rates of organic shares, as opposed to the Tories who pay for promoted tweets.

Reading the thread they are also not stopping voter registration ads. I'm not sure when the voter reg window closes for this election and it might well be before the new policy kicks in anyway but it's very cool that they made the distinction, the right do 'stop normal people being able to vote by any means necessary' so often I forget it's technically not a partisan political issue.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:55

Angepain: Jul 13, 2012; what keeps happening to my clothes

after sending a long and detailed essay to jack about how everything is political really once you think about it, twitter advertising of any kind is banned forever. soon the company folds and nobody ever has to look at a tweet ever again. i am hailed as a hero

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:55

Comrade Fakename: Feb 13, 2012

Unfortunately Twitter isn't banning political ads until Nov 22, which still leaves a bit of time for the Tories to pump out ads. But in general it's great news.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:58

coffeetable: Feb 5, 2006; TELL ME AGAIN HOW GREAT BRITAIN WOULD BE IF IT WAS RULED BY THE MERCILESS JACKBOOT OF PRINCE CHARLES

YES I DO TALK TO PLANTS ACTUALLY

there's a json file there with all the recommendations

code:

import requests
import json
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

URL = 'https://www.getvoting.org/NewData.json'
raw = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(json.loads(requests.get(URL).content.decode()), orient='index')

sub = {
    'Lab': 'Labour',
    'Lib Dem': 'Lib Dem',
    'Pledge': 'Pledge',
    'none': 'None',
    'Dominic Grieve': 'Independent',
    'Green': 'Green',
    'David Gauke': 'Independent',
    'Philip Hammond': 'Independent',
    'Antoinette Sandbach': 'Independent',
    'Anna Soubry': 'Independent'
}

with plt.style.context('seaborn-talk'):
    ax = raw.Reco.replace(sub).value_counts().plot.barh(zorder=2)
    ax.grid(axis='x', zorder=1)
    ax.invert_yaxis()
    ax.set_title('getvoting.org recommendations')
    ax.set_xlabel('number of constituencies')

# ? Oct 30, 2019 21:59

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

Imagine telling someone to vote for Anna Soubry.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 22:01

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# ? May 25, 2024 11:33

Hungry: Jul 14, 2006

Communist Thoughts posted:

added a scottish section to my handy voting flowchart, making it much more hideous

No joke sending this to my parents. Probably still have to sit them down and explain why not to vote Lib Dem though.

# ? Oct 30, 2019 22:04

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Red October 2019: Lies, dem libs, and polling companies.

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