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OwlFancier posted:This insanity about "well based on the EU elections we can predict the outcome of the general election" while ignoring that UKIP/BXP keeps winning loads of seats in the EU elections. The EU elections are for completely different candidates on completely different issues in a completely different system. You'd do just as well basing your predictions on who's winning Strictly. Is Strictly a voting show? I think it is but I've never actually watched it
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Nov 3, 2019 14:35
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Samovar posted:Trying to entice Gapes? Thank you for the vivid mental image of mike gapes doing a striptease with two big fans made out of empty 2l milk bottles stuck on his fingers.
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Nov 3, 2019 14:35
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CGI Stardust posted:devil's advocate: Swinson isn't entirely wrong from the LD point of view. They're assuming that politics has restructured entirely around Brexit and Leave / Remain, in which case the good council and EU election results for LD in that district might become a better predictor than the 2017 result, and the graph almost (with a bunch of twisting around in the ol' brainpan) makes sense - Full Remain vs Full Leave and we don't understand what Labour are doing and neither does anyone else. Do you think the Lib Dems might have an incentive to claim to hold this belief? 
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Nov 3, 2019 14:37
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HauntedRobot posted:A friend from South Carolina once explained to me that "y'all" was singular, the plural was "all y'all" Fortunately this is a descriptive language. Tenebrais posted:The EU elections are for completely different candidates on completely different issues in a completely different system. You'd do just as well basing your predictions on who's winning Strictly. Partially. The viewers vote for the bottom two (combined in some manner with the judges' scores), then the judges pick the one who leaves, except in the final where it's pure viewer vote. And in the christmas show which is filmed in October or something, so it's just audience votes.
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Nov 3, 2019 14:37
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gh0stpinballa posted:intense "camp counsellor embezzling the milk money" vibes from swinson tbh A dark and extreme Bearsden & Milngavie energy Seriously, I can’t even begin to explain how apt this is to non Glasgow folk Lmao OwlFancier posted:Thank you for the vivid mental image of mike gapes doing a striptease with two big fans made out of empty 2l milk bottles stuck on his fingers. 
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Nov 3, 2019 14:38
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Nov 3, 2019 14:39
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Tsaedje posted:The problem with the government announcing an intention to end the benefits freeze is that it reminds people that benefits have been frozen and therefore cut in real terms. It's a phenomenal self own during an election campaign Domino Cummies, everyone!  Also the rest of the out of touch cunts.
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Nov 3, 2019 14:42
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Someone just point out in the replies to that Ridge clip that even in a two horse race between the Lib Dems and Tories, 8% would still vote Labour
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Nov 3, 2019 14:43
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Braggart posted:Do you think the Lib Dems might have an incentive to claim to hold this belief?
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Nov 3, 2019 14:45
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ronya posted:Are you sure about that? The wonderful thing about the legality is that it allows the use of industrial processes to clear forests - the completely legal import, maintenance, and deployment of heavy machinery, with highways to remove spoil and and move cattle. This is orders of magnitude greater than stealthily cropping patches in the mountains far away from prying eyes. Even in Guatemala, which has much easier access to US trafficking routes, the majority of forest loss is driven by the sort of agricultural produce it is perfectly legal to consume - this is noted in the paper you cite. On the differences between regulated agricultural as in Bolivia and clandestine as in Colombia I'd challenge that the former is larger in quantity or inherently more destructive. The cocaleros are only growing in the Andes foothills, not in the Amazon basin, and the amount that each family can grow is regulated by the collective to a cato (~1.6km²). Since doing that, coca production has decreased, cocaine production (one of the least efficient uses of coca leaf) has plummeted, and in general crime and police violence is down. Compare that to the inefficient and scattered coca farms of Colombia and the deforestation due to clandestine labs. CIFOR 20 year deforestation in Bolivia is now one of the lowest in the region, mostly from commercial logging, and mostly in the early 90s (although it has regrettably made a comeback in the past couple years). OwlFancier posted:is there a big jewish baking tradition outside of matzoh? OwlFancier posted:Thank you for the vivid mental image of mike gapes doing a striptease with two big fans made out of empty 2l milk bottles stuck on his fingers.
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Nov 3, 2019 14:47
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CGI Stardust posted:Incentive to claim? Yes. Incentive to actually believe? Also yes. Hard to tell. Well I would argue that whether individual Lib Dems actually believe it or they are just lying for short term advantage is irrelevant to us. And also to them
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Nov 3, 2019 14:49
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https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1190324617879212039?s=19
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Nov 3, 2019 14:53
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Debbie Does Dagon posted:I'd point out that people were making the same argument about gay men until a few decades ago, and before that they were making the same arguments about black men. The "predator" argument is a naked attempt to dehumanise and otherise vulnerable groups, it's bigotry and your friend is a oval office As I said, they aren't my friend, I merely work in the same building as them.
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Nov 3, 2019 14:54
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Why is she pointing at a studio flat worth £500k in London?
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Nov 3, 2019 14:56
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Oh my. Is anyone currently in Photoshop working on Jo Swinson's Stop Brexit Bus? 
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Nov 3, 2019 14:58
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has corbyn and labour talked specifically about the paradise papers in this election push?
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Nov 3, 2019 15:04
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bump_fn posted:has corbyn and labour talked specifically about the paradise papers in this election push? remember when the journalist who exposed it died in a car bombing
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Nov 3, 2019 15:09
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Corbyn and McDonnell have alluded to it, the latter usually as his biting retort to the "magic money tree" jeer "we found the magic money tree, it's in the Caymans"
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Nov 3, 2019 15:09
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gh0stpinballa posted:remember when the journalist who exposed it died in a car bombing yeah this is why i’m mad more politicians aren’t yelling about it all the fuckjng time
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Nov 3, 2019 15:10
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This is such a libdem concern. Is there also a photo of her pointing at a dog poop?
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Nov 3, 2019 15:21
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Guavanaut posted:Pretty sure, because even though you're right that the further north you go, the more likely it is that the deforestation is 'secondary deforestation', i.e. money laundering for traffickers, the first article also makes it clear that this is comparatively recent and due to US-led interdictions in the Caribbean, making the strong case that if Jamaica et al had made the same case as Morales, that the safety of foreign agencies could no longer be guaranteed (know what I mean guv) then this would not be happening. At its peak 38,000 hectares was devoted to coca farming in Bolivia. This includes illegal coca farming. For comparison, deforestation per year is measured in hundreds of thousands of hectares. Agriculture is measured in millions of hectares. When Bolivia wants to bet on the Chinese appetite for beef, it legislates to clear 4.5 million hectares more in ten years. I confess I am just baffled by your perspective on the relative scales of things here. The claim in the Davalos paper is that cocaleros are insignificant as a deforestation contributor. Legal agriculture - mechanized agriculture and cattle ranching - are the main drivers. Limits imposed by upland village collectives are irrelevant; this is good ole' enclosure a la Volume I, staffed heavily by internal migrants. The strategy pursued by Morales is not new. It is unsurprising that an administration prioritizing economic growth and self-sufficiency would pursue infrastructure fuelling export growth.
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Nov 3, 2019 15:24
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Braggart posted:Oh my. Is anyone currently in Photoshop working on Jo Swinson's Stop Brexit Bus? Not the bus, but  --- Also https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1190986936602832896 Cum Dom pulling numbers from his secret arse. Pesky Splinter fucked around with this message at 15:30 on Nov 3, 2019 |
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Nov 3, 2019 15:26
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how do i get myself on this trial or have i missed my chance https://www.healtheuropa.eu/project-twenty21-providing-medical-cannabis-to-patients/92129/ edit: its here https://myaccessclinics.co.uk/ but also I can't afford it Jose fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Nov 3, 2019 |
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Nov 3, 2019 15:27
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That's a bit of a ripoff unless theyre giving everybody green crack
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Nov 3, 2019 15:32
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Pesky Splinter posted:Not the bus, but Pesky Splinter posted:Also "Fewer than 5 people have access to Cummies' election model." Zero people have access to the model because he lost it somewhere and pulled something out of his arse up to cover it up. The result was slightly more accurate.
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Nov 3, 2019 15:43
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Based on how badly Jo Swinson handled that interview I can only assume that she hadn't heard about the chart and assumed that it was put out by the national level Lib Dems instead of a local one. And she thought it was her head on the block. She could easily have dodged responsibility if she just said it wasn't a very good chart and that she's going to talk to them about it. Now she made their local lovely chart her own chart.
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Nov 3, 2019 15:58
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Poison Jam posted:That's a bit of a ripoff unless theyre giving everybody green crack Weed for some, miniature union jacks for others
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Nov 3, 2019 16:09
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Another one gone lmaoooo https://www.thenational.scot/news/18011699.ross-thomson-stand-mp-candidate-following-latest-allegations/
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Nov 3, 2019 16:12
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ronya posted:At its peak 38,000 hectares was devoted to coca farming in Bolivia. This includes illegal coca farming. But even if we do then the Colombian system of small moving coca farms in the forests that get periodically hosed with defoliants from the air by the DEA causes far more damage than either the Bolivian system or a pure hectare based analysis of the crop. It's not the plant is itself, it's telling the DEA to  that saves forests.Maybe not as much as regulating mechanized agriculture, but it adds up (and the thread has already established that agriculture was the greatest human mistake).
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Nov 3, 2019 16:13
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https://twitter.com/jrc1921/status/1191011518458089472?s=19
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Nov 3, 2019 16:21
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https://twitter.com/AndrewBartletta/status/1190997981618671617?s=19
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Nov 3, 2019 16:25
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Guavanaut posted:The amount of cleared forest caused by secondary deforestation that has resulted directly from US led interdiction in the Caribbean is far larger than the amount of primary deforestation caused by the actual coca farming, but is still caused by it, it seems unfair to ignore those externalities. That article is packed full of typos to the point of being distracting.
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Nov 3, 2019 16:26
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https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1190920113194749952 Conspiring to beat up a journalist is probably not even in the top 50.
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Nov 3, 2019 16:29
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Guavanaut posted:The amount of cleared forest caused by secondary deforestation that has resulted directly from US led interdiction in the Caribbean is far larger than the amount of primary deforestation caused by the actual coca farming, but is still caused by it, it seems unfair to ignore those externalities. The choice of coca approach is irrelevant - even in the maximally Plan Dignidad period, Bolivian coca agriculture was never a significant component of agriculture. We are not talking sixty percent, thirty percent. The correct order of magnitude to hold in one's mind is less than 1%. It was an outsized factor in Bolivian society because, for obvious reasons, it is a stellar producer of hard currency when exported. Hence, the surplus product is fantastic and said product gets diverted to societal enrichment (and politics). It could sustain middle-class aspirations on labour/capital levels that would normally imply a subsistence quality of life. Even cash crops face fierce competition, tight margins, and the iron law of the Prebisch-Singer tendency of the relative price of primary products to fall, but coca is immune to being subject to heavy mechanization with high capital inputs at stake for self-evident reasons. But absolutely don't mistake it for environmental relevance. The orders of magnitude matter here. Even further north, consider this diagram, based on the paper you linked:  Secondary deforestation is not a force because of coca agriculture itself, iasmuch as because timber logging is a suitable front for money laundering. When there are easier mechanisms for money laundering - here that noted country of many Papers - narcotics promptly ceases to be a driver
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Nov 3, 2019 16:29
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Sanitary Naptime posted:Same, American shite. Use “yous” instead Yinzers delenda est
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Nov 3, 2019 16:31
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Gonzo McFee posted:
I got into an argument with someone about this because he refused to accept it wasn't a joke and when I said you can listen to the recording started making excuses that you can't see their body language
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Nov 3, 2019 16:31
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just ran into some labour canvassers when I was out for a walk and got the guys number  Im not a huge fan of chatting to random people, but Ive done it a few times before and it wasn't actually too bad from what I remember
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Nov 3, 2019 16:37
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speaking of MI5 cunts, i see james bloodworth got owned again this weekend
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Nov 3, 2019 16:37
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Jose posted:I got into an argument with someone about this because he refused to accept it wasn't a joke and when I said you can listen to the recording started making excuses that you can't see their body language You could also bring up that he has a slew of bastard children, he's been caught cheating on pretty much every girlfriend and wife he's had and even pushed the women he cheated with to get abortions, he has been fired twice from the press for being caught out on blatant lies (One of which was him using his uncle to land a front page story where he just made up quotes hoping his uncle would be too embarrassed to call him out on it) and is, by all accounts, just a massive oval office.
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Nov 3, 2019 16:39
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Well flavible.com isn't a real thing but if they mean .co.uk then ??? 
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Nov 3, 2019 16:40
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