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Slowpoke! posted:National polls are misleading. Yup. We live in a hell earth were a 10 point win would not be enough if rural states continue to support Trump in his dismantling of the government. I'd like to hope a recession would hurt him, but those just tend to polarize toward people pushing minorities out to make room for the white working class.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:19
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1191697612191219712?s=19
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Nov 5, 2019 16:21
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Nail Rat posted:Look at a list of Chinese years I assume. The work's already done and you can just look online (or at a placemat in a restaurant depending on where you live) and see them listed by the years we use today.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:22
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https://twitter.com/Relentlessbored/status/1191489878724403200 HOLYYYYYY SHIIIIITTTTTTTT Just.....the gall to utter these words
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Nov 5, 2019 16:22
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Rodenthar Drothman posted:This is interesting- was is part of your schooling or did you have access to a computer separately and played it? The dumb thing about "Oregon Trail generation" is that a lot of schools kept those crappy Apple IIs or Tandys around until like 2000, so it's just a bunch of Gen Xers not realizing that Millennials also played Oregon trail.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:23
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friendbot2000 posted:https://twitter.com/Relentlessbored/status/1191489878724403200 "Oh wait, I don't have socks!"
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Nov 5, 2019 16:24
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edit: Thought the forums ate my first post, this one is a waste of space. As are all my posts
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Nov 5, 2019 16:29
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Data Graham posted:It's always seemed crazy to me that one ~6-year period of privation during one's youth can imprint you so hard that 80 subsequent years of life as a functioning adult in a prosperous country can't teach you different habits. I mean, i know for a fact that the Great Recession hosed me up.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:30
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friendbot2000 posted:https://twitter.com/daveanthony/status/1191470625883185152 Panic! At The Poorly-Attended Rally
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Nov 5, 2019 16:32
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Nonsense posted:Boomers are dotarded This is loving BULLSHIT. 9/11 happened the year that kids born in '83, ie: Millennials, turned 18, and a whole bunch of them went off to the Middle East to be blown up by IEDs.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:35
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i am harry posted:This is loving BULLSHIT. 9/11 happened the year that kids born in '83, ie: Millennials, turned 18, and a whole bunch of them went off to the Middle East to be blown up by IEDs. Also, some of us graduated college in 2008 If you want to say the job market was better in 93, then you are dumb
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Nov 5, 2019 16:37
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On the one hand, astrology is not a thing I'm into or care about. On the other hand, metal monkey is pretty rad.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:39
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Rodenthar Drothman posted:This is interesting- was is part of your schooling or did you have access to a computer separately and played it? I only ever played the game in school. We had a computer room in our Elementary school. It even had a robot! The district I was in when we played it was probably wealthy but I moved to another town later on that was backwoods by comparison, and kids my age knew what I was talking about there, too. But yea, I don't think Oregon trail is a great demarcation of a generation.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:40
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Doctor Spaceman posted:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1191708086140047361?s=19 The “funniest” thing about this is that the family isn’t even from Utah. They’re American citizens living in Mexico, but they’re part of a Mormon offshoot group so our Brain Genius in chief saw Mormon and thought Utah!!
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Nov 5, 2019 16:42
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2016 broke alot of brains. i dont think trumps loss is 100% guaranteed. but i think all of the poo poo happening with him, plus impeachment, i also think it helps that he isnt an "unknown" anymore. i think alot of people get now that he really is just a stupid rear end in a top hat who does evil stupid awful for petty wrathful reasons. and id like to think alot more people hate that than love it.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:43
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Slowpoke! posted:National polls are misleading. Hillary won the national vote by just 2 points and only lost the 3 critical states by a combined 90k votes. It’s not an exact correlation but if the Dem in 2020 goes on to win the national vote by a much wider margin, say 8 points like Obama in 2008, it’s essentially guaranteed that they carried those states. Btw for funsies someone on another site looked at some polls from November 2015 that had the hypothetical Hillary/Trump matchup and the predictions were much closer than people remember. CNN had Hillary +3. PPP, which is a Dem affiliated outfit, had her at only + 1. Once the Republican debates had been going on for a while and the primaries were close, meaning Trump had well established himself since the summer when he was just considered a joke, Hillary never had the giant lead that people incorrectly seem to recall.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:46
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Whether or not it’s a good thing, I remember reading that younger people don’t buy “luxurious items” anymore at least partially because even when they have savings they feel that one bad day will just wipe it all out. So while it’s not hoarding food it’s still the economy influencing behavior like it.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:46
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Dapper_Swindler posted:2016 broke alot of brains. i dont think trumps loss is 100% guaranteed. but i think all of the poo poo happening with him, plus impeachment, i also think it helps that he isnt an "unknown" anymore. i think alot of people get now that he really is just a stupid rear end in a top hat who does evil stupid awful for petty wrathful reasons. and id like to think alot more people hate that than love it. This presumes all those "but what if Trump is really a moderate!?" takes weren't just establishment Republicans trying to justify their foregone conclusion without looking racist. 99% of those "I voted for Trump and now I regret it" stories end with "but I'll do it again in 2020."
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Nov 5, 2019 16:47
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smug n stuff posted:The “funniest” thing about this is that the family isn’t even from Utah. They’re American citizens living in Mexico, but they’re part of a Mormon offshoot group so our Brain Genius in chief saw Mormon and thought Utah!! Hey Mexico, you better take care of our citizens living in your country better *locks up your citizens in concentration camps*
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Nov 5, 2019 16:48
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Data Graham posted:It's always seemed crazy to me that one ~6-year period of privation during one's youth can imprint you so hard that 80 subsequent years of life as a functioning adult in a prosperous country can't teach you different habits. Food insecurity and digging stuff out of trashcans to try to bring home something extra to eat doesn't have to go on for long before it makes a huge impact. Food insecurity is such a jarring thing that there's almost always this little thing in the back of your mind saying, "what if it happened again?" and you want to never, ever, be unprepared (somehow) ever again. What's funny is that with the whole milk shaking fascists thing I was extremely conflicted because on the one hand gently caress fascists that's hilarious, but on the other... those were good milkshakes somebody could have eaten and I get all  about it.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:49
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friendbot2000 posted:https://twitter.com/Relentlessbored/status/1191489878724403200 A: I don't believe this rear end in a top hat would LET his wife drive his boat. 2: Not that a small fine isn't the right punishment for killing a rich person, but I suspect I would have gotten a harsher sentence.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:49
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theflyingorc posted:Also, some of us graduated college in 2008 I was slated to graduate in 2007 but clairvoyantly knew the economy was going to take a poo poo so I delayed (hosed up a lot, postponing graduation) until 2011  Also gently caress that guy, I had friends that died in Iraq that were born in 1985.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:50
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KillHour posted:This presumes all those "but what if Trump is really a moderate!?" takes weren't just establishment Republicans trying to justify their foregone conclusion without looking racist. 99% of those "I voted for Trump and now I regret it" stories end with "but I'll do it again in 2020." There were a not insignificant number of Obama-Trump voters believe it or not. I don’t understand it, it shouldn’t make sense, but there were many. Those people may not go back to voting for a Dem but they might easily just sit the election out.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:50
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VA Absentee Vote Info 2019 Source: VPAP https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/profile-2019-absentee-voters/ They also are doing an election prediction game if you think you're an absolute expert and know how everything will go. https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/K69RHB8
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Nov 5, 2019 16:52
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I don’t understand it, it shouldn’t make sense, Misogyny.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:53
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theflyingorc posted:The dumb thing about "Oregon Trail generation" is that a lot of schools kept those crappy Apple IIs or Tandys around until like 2000, so it's just a bunch of Gen Xers not realizing that Millennials also played Oregon trail. "oregon trail generation" is bad shorthand for old millenials, probably the average goon
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Nov 5, 2019 16:54
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OB_Juan posted:I like these. How did you determine them? Year you were born + elemental cycle of that year. It's useful to use a calculator if you have a jan/Feb birthday because the Chinese calendar is lunisolar and wobbles a little. So 4716 (pig) started on Feb 5th 2019 and 4717 will start on Jan 25th. Then look up the traits. For example, earth oxen are crazy lucky. https://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/chinese-zodiac/china-five-elements-philosophy.htm
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Nov 5, 2019 16:54
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smug n stuff posted:The “funniest” thing about this is that the family isn’t even from Utah. They’re American citizens living in Mexico, but they’re part of a Mormon offshoot group so our Brain Genius in chief saw Mormon and thought Utah!! Oh, so one of the polygamist/pedophile enclaves
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Nov 5, 2019 16:54
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ManBoyChef posted:They really don't care about reality. How do you debate people that fundamentally disagree about what reality is? It just seems like we are talking past each other and there is no way to convince these folks that they may be wrong and to follow the evidence. Any ideas on how to deal with this? I'd like to be able to talk to my family about politics at some point but its so frustrating when we can't agree on what is real. "Okay Boomer" seems to sink in pretty hard tbh The idea that you would just openly dismiss any of their insane or bigoted poo poo outright as the stupidity that it is seems to really gently caress with their heads Some of them want to make it a slur on par with the n-word for god sakes
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Nov 5, 2019 16:55
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Dapper_Swindler posted:2016 broke alot of brains. i dont think trumps loss is 100% guaranteed. but i think all of the poo poo happening with him, plus impeachment, i also think it helps that he isnt an "unknown" anymore. i think alot of people get now that he really is just a stupid rear end in a top hat who does evil stupid awful for petty wrathful reasons. and id like to think alot more people hate that than love it. It is as it always has been. Turnout, turnout, turnout. If we let ourselves sit home and disengage he'll win because Republicans turn out. If we surpass 2018 Trump will be defeated. I don't see that any narrative or current hoopla has changed that simple fundamental truth. We need to show up in numbers next year, and get everyone we know who cares to do likewise.
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Nov 5, 2019 16:57
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Flesh Forge posted:Oh, so one of the polygamist/pedophile enclaves Yep. There doesn't seem to be any indication that the people killed were polygamists, but the community they were living in was founded in the 40s by Mormons mad that the institutional church wouldn't let them do polygamy. I have a lot of Mormon ancestors and find this stuff really interesting--the Lebaron family, which the people killed were part of, have a crazy story, brothers murdering brothers over leadership of their sect, all that good stuff.
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Nov 5, 2019 17:02
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Virginia elections today, apparently the early turnout in blue areas has been overwhelming. This is important because if the Dems take a strong majority of the Virginia house and Senate, they can ratfuck the GOP in 2020 redistricting.
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Nov 5, 2019 17:02
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VH4Ever posted:It is as it always has been. Turnout, turnout, turnout. If we let ourselves sit home and disengage he'll win because Republicans turn out. If we surpass 2018 Trump will be defeated. I don't see that any narrative or current hoopla has changed that simple fundamental truth. We need to show up in numbers next year, and get everyone we know who cares to do likewise. I see around a lot that people think that Dems did so well in 2018 because Republicans were just demoralized and didn’t turn out because Trump wasn’t on the ticket. But they did turnout, in record numbers. It’s just that Dems turned out in historic numbers to counter it. Republicans enthusiasm to vote is always high. It’s always higher than Dems. It’s usually like double or more in past years. But recent polling has shown that Dem enthusiasm for 2020 is just about on par with Republicans which bodes well. Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Nov 5, 2019 |
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Nov 5, 2019 17:02
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Dapper_Swindler posted:2016 broke alot of brains. i dont think trumps loss is 100% guaranteed. but i think all of the poo poo happening with him, plus impeachment, i also think it helps that he isnt an "unknown" anymore. i think alot of people get now that he really is just a stupid rear end in a top hat who does evil stupid awful for petty wrathful reasons. and id like to think alot more people hate that than love it. You'd like to think, but like you said, 2016 broke me. I spent 17 years in retail and I thought I had a pretty good handle on just how stupid and lovely the general public can be as a whole. And then Trump got elected and I realized I wasn't even close. Tribalism is probably the most uniting force we have, and the right uses hate and fear to increase and indoctrinate their ranks to keep them loyal and uninformed. It works like a charm.
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Nov 5, 2019 17:03
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axeil posted:VA Absentee Vote Info 2019 Isn't 28% absentee voting for the first time kind of an insane amount?
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Nov 5, 2019 17:07
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:You'd like to think, but like you said, 2016 broke me. I spent 17 years in retail and I thought I had a pretty good handle on just how stupid and lovely the general public can be as a whole. And then Trump got elected and I realized I wasn't even close. There is one iron law in US politics right now: when Democrats vote, they win. They greatly outnumber the GOP. They didn't vote in 2016 because they weren't excited by Hillary and also convinced themselves Trump wasn't going to win, so why bother. There's pretty much no chance of low turnout happening in 2020.
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Nov 5, 2019 17:08
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Nonsense posted:Boomers are dotarded I guess it's kinda dumb to correct the baseball man, but those are the most cherry picked age brackets he could possibly have used.
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Nov 5, 2019 17:08
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smug n stuff posted:Yep. There doesn't seem to be any indication that the people killed were polygamists, but the community they were living in was founded in the 40s by Mormons mad that the institutional church wouldn't let them do polygamy. It's not really my bailiwick but I know there's still a lot of Mormons that expat to Mexico for those same reasons, e.g. some of Warren Jeffs' people. https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Execution-Style-Murders-Expose-Polygamous-Cult-in-Mexico-20171111-0023.html quote:The execution-style murder of three U.S. males – two of them teenagers – has cast damning light on a polygamist Mormon cult in Mexico, following the arrest of its fugitive leader. .... what a segue!
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Nov 5, 2019 17:09
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Captain Invictus posted:Isn't 28% absentee voting for the first time kind of an insane amount? 28% of 122k is only ~34,000 and we have no idea what districts they're voting in nor what party they voted for/their party ID. If they're all up in Arlington that's not really going to help anything, we need solid numbers Commonwealth-wide. It's not bad news, but I wouldn't call it good news either. Just interesting. I personally am somewhat pessimistic and think we only manage to take the House (because it got un-gerrymandered) and fall short in the Senate because both Dem and GOP voters turn out.
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Nov 5, 2019 17:10
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Rigel posted:There is one iron law in US politics right now: when Democrats vote, they win. They greatly outnumber the GOP. While you're not wrong, the right has consistently resisted ANY measure of election security whatsoever. They've enacted voter suppression tactics. Hell, you thought Russia interfered LAST time? That's nothing compared to what they're going to do. There's a better than 50/50 chance that this election will be completely illegitimate.
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Nov 5, 2019 17:10
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