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If pollsters had a reason to want a Labour government we'd be hearing about it loving constantly. No poll matters. If you allow a poll to demoralize you then it is doing its job.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:51
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coffeetable posted:it's fine to criticise the methodology of individual polls, but when you find yourself having to do it for every poll, that's a problem. I agree. And we have empirical evidence that in 2017 when that happened, the problem was that nearly all of the polls were incorrect due to bad methodology. We even had counterexamples backing up that conclusion because they used a different methodology, and called the election much more accurately. We also know that this time around polling companies are not using the more accurate methodology, because it is difficult and expensive. Whether or not there are other motivations for them doing so, we know all of this for a fact. This election, the polls run by polling companies which decided not to improve their methodology appear to be underestimating support for Labour. Just like what happened last time, and we know why it happened last time. I think the problem that you are looking for is the same as last time.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:52
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What were the bookies saying last time? Polls I can understand dismissing as propaganda but I'm more wary of writing off the odds offered publicly by places looking to make money. They're generally pretty risk averse and wouldn't be offering those odds just to influence opinion if it was going to cost them. Unless they think Labour being in power would cost them even more, I guess
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Nov 24, 2019 15:52
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For a bookie to stay in business they have to make money no matter what the outcome. They adjust their odds to account for betting, to balance the money placed on one outcome with the money placed against it, not for the actual likelihood of something happening.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:56
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TTerrible posted:What were the bookies saying last time? Polls I can understand dismissing as propaganda but I'm more wary of writing off the odds offered publicly by places looking to make money. They're generally pretty risk averse and wouldn't be offering those odds just to influence opinion if it was going to cost them. Your spoilered conspiracy theory would have zero or negligible effect I think. (I know you don't actually think that  )Being risk averse could lead them to hesitate to throw out received wisdom. And the received wisdom on this at present is bollocks because the people giving it to us are liars. Bookies are fallible too
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Nov 24, 2019 15:56
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OwlFancier posted:What are you going to do if the polling is perfectly representative? Kill yourself? Whether it's right or wrong does not change the necessary course of action, it can only possibly serve to demoralize you or make you complacent. What's not useful about it. I think knowing how the parties are doing is pretty useful, especially if you are looking to vote to keep the tories out. Like if my seat was a three way tie with SNP Labour and Tories I'd probably look at polling to see who is better placed to beat the tories. VideoGames posted:I dismiss the polls easily for one reason: they were proven last time to be wrong. That's a very big generalisation. Some polls were wrong, sure. Some were pretty much dead on. Braggart posted:Your spoilered conspiracy theory would have zero or negligible effect I think. (I know you don't actually think that Didn't the bookies pay out on Hillary winning lol
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Nov 24, 2019 15:58
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In 2017 the polls said we would face the biggest wipeout Labour had ever seen, we played an extremely defensive campaign and not only did gain seats, we scalped Clegg and flipped a seat to red that's been blue ever since it was created 80 years ago. We're not playing defence this time.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:58
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I feel a disclaimer post that I rejoined Labour just prior to the election and am not here to Just Ask Questions. Just feeling a bit of a wobble after how much fun QT was. 
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Nov 24, 2019 15:59
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Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:tory manifesto lmao: https://vote.conservatives.com/news/our-manifesto-gets-brexit-done-and-unleashes-the-potential-of-the-whole-country Bread and circuses, sans bread and circuses.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:59
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the full manifesto isn't up yet, but an excerpt.... i'm that last line
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Nov 24, 2019 16:00
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Is labour behind at the moment? Sure. But I'd reckon that we're 6-7 points behind, not the 15 of the Tory polls. That's a closable gap- there's 2.5 weeks to go.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:01
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Captain Fargle posted:In 2017 the polls said we would face the biggest wipeout Labour had ever seen, we played an extremely defensive campaign and not only did we scalp Clegg we flipped a seat to red that's been Blue ever since it was created 80 years ago. They said that at the start of the campaign and then the tory lead narrowed a lot, they weren't that wrong right before the election
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Nov 24, 2019 16:01
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marktheando posted:What's not useful about it. I think knowing how the parties are doing is pretty useful, especially if you are looking to vote to keep the tories out. Like if my seat was a three way tie with SNP Labour and Tories I'd probably look at polling to see who is better placed to beat the tories. Because as I said, it really only serves to demoralize or make people complacent. As a human being you're not capable of just taking in all information and processing it dispassionately, what you expose yourself to determines what you think, how you feel, what you do. So expose yourself only to information which elicits reactions you want to have. The alternative to you deciding what infromation you're exposed to and thus the perception of the world you will have and the actions you will take, is simply handing that control over to media companies, and they are not capable of acting in your best interests.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:02
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marktheando posted:That's a very big generalisation. Some polls were wrong, sure. Some were pretty much dead on. Which ones were dead on? I do not remember that.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:02
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Survation were 4 point tory lead +/- 2 points, actual was a 2 point lead.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:03
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RDevz posted:Having read the Labour manifesto, I did end up with one question that the combined wisdom of the UKMT comrades may be able to help me with while I try to work out what I'm going to be voting for. I can't answer your whole post, but I can say this: the exact details of how nationalisation will be achieved are not set in stone by the manifesto. If big business tries some funny tricks – and they will because it's what they do – we can adapt. The shadow cabinet have shown that they can be quite cunning and practical.  I'm sorry Jeremy, you said that you would only nationalise the biggest six energy firms, so we've consolidated the industry into just five. Oh excellent, that means we won't have to talk to as many people to get this done. Wait what? You can't do that! That's not fair! 
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Nov 24, 2019 16:05
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some more excerpts:  flexible childcare funding (but only for a year)
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Nov 24, 2019 16:05
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marktheando posted:Yeah people ITT are too dismissive of polling. Looking at the movement of polls is useful even if the weighting is off. And even if they are like 20, 30, 40% off that's still far too many tories. I agree, relative movement in the numbers produced by individual polling companies is worth looking at for trends. I don't think anyone was disputing that. We are saying that the headline numbers are bullshit 
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Nov 24, 2019 16:09
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Pesky Splinter posted:Bread and circuses, sans bread and circuses. I dunno, the country is on fire and there are a load of clowns running around preventing each other from putting it out. Boris is trying to avoid being eaten by a lion, and the audience are watching in shocked disbelief No bread though, true. Eat your turnip and sawdust. No wait, give me your turnip.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:14
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one of the interesting points raised by DataPraxis: leading Brexiteers like Johnson and Raab and Baker are, for whatever reason, choosing to stand in unsafe seats a hilarious outcome of a CON majority that promptly tears itself apart as the chief ERGers disappear from the Commons is still possible
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Nov 24, 2019 16:15
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OwlFancier posted:Because as I said, it really only serves to demoralize or make people complacent. This doesn't sound like a healthy attitude to me. Braggart posted:I agree, relative movement in the numbers produced by individual polling companies is worth looking at for trends. I don't think anyone was disputing that. We are saying that the headline numbers are bullshit Well fair enough if true, that's not the way I read what people have been posting.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:16
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OwlFancier posted:As a human being you're not capable of just taking in all information and processing it dispassionately, what you expose yourself to determines what you think, how you feel, what you do. So expose yourself only to information which elicits reactions you want to have. well, at least i understand your aversion to statistics now
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Nov 24, 2019 16:18
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marktheando posted:Well fair enough if true, that's not the way I read what people have been posting. That is my view, and it is the conclusion that these discussions always come to ITT
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Nov 24, 2019 16:18
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ronya posted:one of the interesting points raised by DataPraxis: leading Brexiteers like Johnson and Raab and Baker are, for whatever reason, choosing to stand in unsafe seats Boris not defending his original seat would be such a show of weakness that even the most lead poisoned brexiteer would laugh at him
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Nov 24, 2019 16:18
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Braggart posted:I agree, relative movement in the numbers produced by individual polling companies is worth looking at for trends. I don't think anyone was disputing that. We are saying that the headline numbers are bullshit Braggart posted:That is my view, and it is the conclusion that these discussions always come to ITT What's with the smiles, don't patronise me
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Nov 24, 2019 16:20
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3 weeks out from the 2017 election Survation were still showing a 12 point Tory lead. Which is not to say you should dismiss polls, Survation were probably correct at that point. But more to say that polls are just snapshots of a few days prior and we've got evidence that large swings can happen in three weeks of campaigning.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:21
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https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197952220844711936 "What do we want!" "More young debt!"
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Nov 24, 2019 16:22
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marktheando posted:What's with the smiles, don't patronise me Absolutely not my intention. I do that sometimes to try to indicate that I am not being at all hostile. I am autistic. I have plenty of experience with people taking what I say in a more hostile manner than I intended.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:22
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Pesky Splinter posted:https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197952220844711936 It's genius. Give young people the chance to take on state backed debt to further subsidise the buy-to-let market. Leverage the nation's balance sheet to make sure house prices never fall. Boomers with property portfolios must be protected.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:25
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RockyB posted:So, did the channel four climate debate get officially cancelled? Literally the only one where climate change is the main agenda, and Johnson didn't show. They should have just no-chaired him. I thought they were going ahead and threatening to empty chair him? Just caught up from the overnight posts. For the people swinging in feeling down/dour/what's the point of all this, the point is we stay together and don't let them divide us while we keep fighting. You can have a rest while others fight, but don't give up, that's entirely the aim of the oppressor. Demoralise. Also, don't poo poo on WASPI women or the olds. If we're socialists we don't get to pick and choose our compassion and empathy. loving decimate with holy vengeance those actively trying to harm people for their own greedy ends, sure, but keep compassion for those that they've successfully duped and weaponised, for they know not what they do. Until we're nothing more than citizens of earth where all production is owned by labour, then the powerful are going to hold the power, what changes is how much we let them get away with. By design many people are somewhere between where I was from 2010 (feeling politically lost, main difference between Tories and New Labour being that NL at least lubed up before loving you over) to where I was beginning to become interested in politics again and first rocked up in UKMT. What changed for me in finding UKMT and having the opportunity to expand my political thinking and learning and having a better understanding of socialism, isn't that I am now of the mindset "this fight is to get Labour into government and it is a resounding defeat if we don't", but of the mindset that I finally have a political home, I've found a movement that wants compassion and fairness for everyone and a belief that there is a real achievable alternative to "you're either lucky and live well, or unlucky and loving suffer or die". That's not just an election campaign, it's a cause, a war, elections are the skirmishes in the ongoing fight where sometimes you gain ground and sometimes you lose it. The key is, however those skirmishes turn out, while we've still got each other and compassion for those unable to fight we carry on and we absolutely do not turn our sights on the pawns used against us; stay focused on those that are loving making GBS threads themselves over their gravy trains being cut short. So to those feeling hopeless, just hang with us and stay a while, the solidarity that exudes from this group of people and the people I've come to follow on Left Twitter will absolutely recharge your batteries I promise. Then you can pick up the mantle while someone else takes a breather. They cannot take us out so long as we are numerous and stay together. Solidarity.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:25
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Pesky Splinter posted:https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197952220844711936 “Plan for Britain’s future “ sounds more like a doomsday preppers manifesto to me
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Nov 24, 2019 16:27
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Liberal Democrats: Canned Sunshine For A Brighter Future
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Nov 24, 2019 16:29
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marktheando posted:This doesn't sound like a healthy attitude to me. you'll understand if it might make people hesitant to engage with you when your response to posts like this is just "no" polls do influence opinion, this is a fact. the people who own many of the pollsters have an incentive to influence opinion against Labour, this is also a fact. the polls are producing results which don't seem to line up with how actual people are responding to the parties, this is subjective but about as close to a fact as you can subjectively get. does this prove, incontrovertibly, that pollsters are trying to influence opinion more than they are to reflect it? of course not but it's a pretty suggestive set of facts huh
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Nov 24, 2019 16:29
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Braggart posted:Absolutely not my intention. I do that sometimes to try to indicate that I am not being at all hostile. Sorry, interpreting smiley faces as some kind of dig probably say more about me than it does about you. Also I haven't had any sleep.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:31
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Talk about giving up on the issue, now we need "help" to get into the loving rental market. edit: ignore, not my business
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Nov 24, 2019 16:32
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Dabir posted:you'll understand if it might make people hesitant to engage with you when your response to posts like this is just "no" I don't dispute that polls are used to influence opinion, that's obvious, I was taking issue with Owlfancier saying "expose yourself only to information which elicits reactions you want to have"
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Nov 24, 2019 16:36
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Dabir posted:you'll understand if it might make people hesitant to engage with you when your response to posts like this is just "no" the whole point of polls is to escape the selection effects that come from looking around you and seeing 'how people are responding'. if you're young you've a huge bias towards seeing how other young people respond. if you live in a city there's a huge bias towards seeing how other citydwellers respond. if you have post on internet communities like SA or twitter, there's a huge bias towards seeing how the kind of people who post on internet communities respond. pollster might have trouble with their sampling methodology but believe you me, they're an exact science compared to your personal methodology coffeetable fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Nov 24, 2019 |
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Nov 24, 2019 16:36
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marktheando posted:Sorry, interpreting smiley faces as some kind of dig probably say more about me than it does about you. Nah, don't worry about it. I understand. If anything your feedback is useful to me, because other people may have thought the same at times. I simply would not know unless they tell me, because autism. I'm extremely literal, and what I say is exactly what I mean. If anyone is wondering whether I'm trying to insinuate something, please ask me. The answer is probably no. Hope you can catch up on your sleep tonight 
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Nov 24, 2019 16:37
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liberal democrats boldly announcing for their 2030 manifesto a Help To Airbnb Fund, where for one time only young people from ages 18-21 can get a loan for 50% of the first day's stay at an airbnb which they can then potentially use as a reference for half a room in a bedsit that can get them on the Place To Sleep Ladder and maybe even get a place to rent within ten years if all goes well
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Nov 24, 2019 16:37
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coffeetable posted:the whole point of polls is to escape the selection effects that come from looking around you and seeing 'how people are responding'. if you're young you've a huge bias towards seeing how other young people respond. if you live in a city there's a huge bias towards seeing how other citydwellers respond. if you have post on internet communities like SA or twitter, there's a huge bias towards seeing how the kind of people who post on internet communities respond. alright, look at their relative performances and reception on question time. does that look like a ten point Tory lead to you?
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Nov 24, 2019 16:39
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