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Household debt good. Government debt satanic evil.
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Nov 26, 2019 16:38
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cowofwar posted:Went for a hike starting up at the top of British Properties. Lots of oversized ugly stucco houses clearly not maintained and with missing roof tiles or plastic covering sections. Hilarious. Brothers creek trail?
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Nov 26, 2019 16:49
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Vancouver City Council voting on some measures to increase rental supply in Vancouver by using rental only zoning and expanding the amount of areas where multi-unit rental buildings are allowed. quote:Four-storey apartment buildings could replace houses on more Vancouver side streets Plenty of reasons for plenty of groups to hate on this. The NIMBYs will hate any and all attempts of intruding apartment buildings into single family home areas, while the activist left will hate on this expansion of programs which give money to developers to incentivize them to build a rental building instead of a condo. I have no idea how this vote is going to go, but it would be a remarkable city wide development if this passes.
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Nov 27, 2019 04:05
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James Baud posted:Decent reddit thread on why everything about affordable housing (for legit poor people) sucks: Just so I am understanding right, your point wasn't that the tenant in the OP isn't garbage and its the landlords fault, but that the discussion in the thread later from other landlords illustrates inherent problems in the system? Because drat the OP there seems like a really bad example when we are trying to say its always the landlords fault.
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Nov 27, 2019 06:55
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Femtosecond posted:Vancouver City Council voting on some measures to increase rental supply in Vancouver by using rental only zoning and expanding the amount of areas where multi-unit rental buildings are allowed. This is actually pretty good. It is a bit annoying how the article doesn't actually define "side streets" until about halfway through. The lede makes it sound like they're allowing four-storey buildings everywhere, not "in a 150m zone around main roads".
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Nov 27, 2019 20:04
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Lead out in cuffs posted:This is actually pretty good. It is a bit annoying how the article doesn't actually define "side streets" until about halfway through. The lede makes it sound like they're allowing four-storey buildings everywhere, not "in a 150m zone around main roads". Four story residential or mixed buildings should be the default zoning for all land between the Burrard Inlet and Fraser River. Having giant swaths of the lower mainland being SFHs full of retired boomers is choking the city economically. Neither my work nor that of my wife is able to hire effectively since everyone looking for a job lives south of the Fraser. The city is also spending massive amounts of money to move around services and infrastructure since the family dense areas are now all childless households. cowofwar fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Nov 27, 2019 |
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Nov 27, 2019 21:35
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The zoning changes will just drive up land values. If you don't care about that and only care about unit counts, fair enough, but high land value means high unit cost and the cycle perpetuates. Concentrating all the offices at the tip of a peninsula is the mistake and it's not one people need to make. Your staff retention is higher when you're out on the fringes and are one of very few "close to home" options for your employees who will indeed relocate to minimize their commutes over time.
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Nov 27, 2019 22:58
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For sure there are industries that need those near proximity clusters, but for others in the worst case you can put the handful of staff who need it in a separate location. Most don't.
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Nov 27, 2019 23:01
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This was the most baffling part of the recent Surrey decision to abandon a local LRT in exchange for running a Skytrain extension to Langley. Surrey should absolutely be attempting to be a second downtown, and would probably become the primary one in my lifetime. Instead they opted for status quo and making Langley's commute to downtown better.
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Nov 27, 2019 23:34
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James Baud posted:The zoning changes will just drive up land values. If you don't care about that and only care about unit counts, fair enough, but high land value means high unit cost and the cycle perpetuates. Rezoning only boosts land values if you slowly mete out the changes. If you mass rezone there isn’t enough demand to inflate the values to that extent. It might cause outer areas to lose value while inner ones appreciate. I’ll advise my wife’s hospital and UBC to relocate further out. Lots of businesses need specialized buildings that aren’t available further out. We spent a year looking and ended up keeping our lab space at UBC and moving the rest of the non lab people to another site but both are still too inconvenient to reach from the sky trains.
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Nov 28, 2019 03:27
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Haven't seen an article about it yet but remarkably it seems like all those various zoning changes passed! To my eye the policy looks designed a bit like the duplex policy in that it's explicitly designed not to spike land values and induce a wave of demolitions, but rather to simply provide another alternative for persons that find themselves holding a marginal land value only lot. We'll see what happens.
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Nov 28, 2019 18:25
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Empty home tax going up! Vancouver hikes empty homes tax by 25 per cent quote:Vancouver city council has approved a 25 per cent increase to its empty homes tax.
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Nov 28, 2019 23:56
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25% on 1% to 1.25%. gently caress off. Make it 25%. God drat these useless loving feet dragging do-nothing politicians. City staff warned if the tax went up too high it might result in non-compliance? Then have brutal fines for non-compliance, make the fines so high people lose their properties. Make the fines so high the city salivates at the idea of someone trying to dodge the tax.
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Nov 29, 2019 00:02
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Baronjutter posted:25% on 1% to 1.25%. Yes. I'd also like the city to make rental restrictions by stratas a thing of the past. It's absolutely ridiculous that in current year Vancouver a person with an apartment or condo who wants to rent it out cannot because of their strata.
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Nov 29, 2019 00:06
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Claes Oldenburger posted:Yes. I'd also like the city to make rental restrictions by stratas a thing of the past. It's absolutely ridiculous that in current year Vancouver a person with an apartment or condo who wants to rent it out cannot because of their strata. Stratas are the worst form of governance known to man. All the restrictions of renting, with all the costs of owning. People do this because why?
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Nov 29, 2019 01:22
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Yeah, make the fine for non-compliance civil forfeiture of the asset. See how fast people pay that tax.
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Nov 29, 2019 01:39
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McGavin posted:Yeah, make the fine for non-compliance civil forfeiture of the asset. See how fast people pay that tax. It is a municipal property tax isn’t it? Seizure of the asset should already baked into non-payment.
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Nov 29, 2019 02:03
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Probably hit bottom in the Vancouver SFH space? RIP CI's dreams of a $500k SFH.quote:Five bids for Vancouver Special amid fevered market That's your housing bubble bursting. Down 10%.
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Nov 29, 2019 17:23
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Realtors have been declaring the bottom for months now. There was always a group of people in a position to buy who were waiting to see prices come down a bit. That local money they’re referencing to is not near so big a pool as the foreign money is. It’s going to dry up and then the market will slow again. I have a hard time taking the word of people who’s job it is to sell houses to say this is the right time to buy. Especially a group as sleazy as realtors.
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Nov 29, 2019 18:17
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And when this capital bump dries up?
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Nov 29, 2019 18:17
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I recall being mocked by CI for stating that there was "pent up demand" that would keep the bubble afloat but yeah that's exactly what we're seeing. "Under housed" upper class people have been cooling their heels in condos for the last few years because they were priced out of SFHs, but now not only do they have the savings from those years, but also the equity they've built in those condos that they can leverage. All of those people grasping for anything that falls down to that sub $1.2M price point is keeping prices aloft. As for foreign investors well those are no where to be found which is why all those mansions in West Van are in free fall. What happens next is anyone's guess. Rich millennials are likely to keep non-teardowns above $1.1M for a while. How long will it take for everyone else with established SFH equity to shuffle around and take advantage of those declining West Van properties? I have no idea. In not too long boomers start dying in droves and then the entire dynamic is going to be up in the air as incredible wealth pours into the pockets of millennials that are currently priced out of the market.
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Nov 29, 2019 18:50
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I feel like there’s a not so hidden land mine just sitting around ready to blow up as that mine’s name is the HELOC. How many properties are going to be leveraged to the point where people just can’t sell them at the price point they should be valued at because they need to repay all the loans, HELOCs, second mortgages, and god knows what else? Boomers are going to start passing on and I feel like their estates aren’t nearly so tidy as everyone is expecting. How much value is entirely on paper and inflated by equity loans that must be repaid when the asset is sold?
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Nov 29, 2019 19:26
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Number19 posted:I feel like there’s a not so hidden land mine just sitting around ready to blow up as that mine’s name is the HELOC. How many properties are going to be leveraged to the point where people just can’t sell them at the price point they should be valued at because they need to repay all the loans, HELOCs, second mortgages, and god knows what else? I completely agree, but I think we're still a ways from that? Boomers are getting close to the end of their lives but they still have a ways to go before they start passing away en masse. People cling to assets if they don't absolutely have to sell them, so maybe it'll be a slow taper of the estates hitting the market, as opposed to a drop?
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Nov 29, 2019 19:42
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Claes Oldenburger posted:I completely agree, but I think we're still a ways from that? Boomers are getting close to the end of their lives but they still have a ways to go before they start passing away en masse. People cling to assets if they don't absolutely have to sell them, so maybe it'll be a slow taper of the estates hitting the market, as opposed to a drop? True, but there's a whole pack of boomers who's whole retirement portfolio is rental properties because they don't trust the stock market. My aunt is one, and she justified it by saying that when all the boomers retire then them selling their stocks at once will make the stock market crater, but she somehow didn't consider that the exact same thing is true for housing stock but much more so. Good thing she's got a public sector pension.
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Nov 29, 2019 20:44
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Femtosecond posted:In not too long boomers start dying in droves and then the entire dynamic is going to be up in the air as incredible wealth pours into the pockets of millennials that are currently priced out of the market. That's really the crux of it. I feel like within my lifetime home ownership is gonna become near entirely correlated with inheriting a windfall from your parents property value, if it isn't there already.
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Nov 29, 2019 20:49
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Square Peg posted:True, but there's a whole pack of boomers who's whole retirement portfolio is rental properties because they don't trust the stock market. My aunt is one, and she justified it by saying that when all the boomers retire then them selling their stocks at once will make the stock market crater, but she somehow didn't consider that the exact same thing is true for housing stock but much more so. Good thing she's got a public sector pension. Estates are going to have to start unloading this stuff for whatever they can get in order to untangle all the assets that have equity loans against them that must be resolved in order to do a proper liquidation. At this point it's entirely possible that lawyers and accountants are going to eat up a lot of the value gains that holding all those properties made simply from the fees needed to pull the web apart. I know some people in this position have been starting to slowly do this as they retire but I'm willing to bet there's still a lot of "I deserve a new BMW every year" people who are going to ride that mentality straight into their coffins. e: I would be very curious to see exactly how many people that are retired or are close to retirement who have significant equity in their homes locked up in loans. I bet it's a pretty alarming amount.
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Nov 29, 2019 20:58
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Square Peg posted:True, but there's a whole pack of boomers who's whole retirement portfolio is rental properties because they don't trust the stock market. My aunt is one, and she justified it by saying that when all the boomers retire then them selling their stocks at once will make the stock market crater, but she somehow didn't consider that the exact same thing is true for housing stock but much more so. Good thing she's got a public sector pension. How correlated even is the stock market to investments by actual people? I thought most of it was a giant human centipede of corporations owning each other. Investments by us mere mortals are just along for the ride.
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Nov 29, 2019 22:59
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How many boomers are gonna die with years or even decades of deferred property taxes too lmao
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Nov 29, 2019 23:36
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Lead out in cuffs posted:How correlated even is the stock market to investments by actual people? I thought most of it was a giant human centipede of corporations owning each other. Investments by us mere mortals are just along for the ride. Yeah her argument is nonsense. Maybe if every non-billionaire boomer totally cashed out all their retirement investments all at once it would make some waves, but that wouldn't make any sense. Good thing you can just sell bits of houses at a time!
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Nov 29, 2019 23:44
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Lead out in cuffs posted:How correlated even is the stock market to investments by actual people? I thought most of it was a giant human centipede of corporations owning each other. Investments by us mere mortals are just along for the ride. Not much at all: https://www.pionline.com/article/20170425/INTERACTIVE/170429926/80-of-equity-market-cap-held-by-institutions And keep in mind of those 20% of retail investors, most are just using mutual funds through their banks/brokerages, getting ripped off while doing so, and really have no idea what's going on in the details. Over represented here so it's easy to forget, but it's actually super rare for someone to be balancing their own portfolio with broad market ETFs and whatnot. leftist heap posted:How many boomers are gonna die with years or even decades of deferred property taxes too lmao The general theme of the generation has been "salt the Earth and gently caress you" so expect every last penny to be spent keeping them alive to 120 years looking and acting like Emperor Palpatine.
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Nov 29, 2019 23:51
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Oh and also most of the Canadian mutual funds the banks push are like 80% Canadian companies. BCE, CP, TU, CTC, oh my!
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Nov 29, 2019 23:54
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leftist heap posted:How many boomers are gonna die with years or even decades of deferred property taxes too lmao Oh yeah add this to the pile as well. Everyone is expecting to get full value out of their homes but they don't appear to have considered fully who will be able to pay for it.
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Nov 30, 2019 00:38
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Number19 posted:Oh yeah add this to the pile as well. Everyone is expecting to get full value out of their homes but they don't appear to have considered fully who will be able to pay for it. As of 2013, the 80th percentile for household income in Vancouver was about 240k, and in Toronto it was just shy of 300k. That's probably climbed at least 10% higher by now. At these interest rates, there are thus plenty of people who can afford the 1-2m dollar single family homes, especially when you consider that the number of them out there continues to shrink as they're lost to multifamily redevelopment. I can't remember the exact number of SFHs around, but I suspect there are around twice as many people earning that much as it would take to fill them all up. So if you take the somewhat common belief that, post-2009, interest rates are never going to "normalize" after all; and decide that the bottom really is in, you'll definitely be able to get your capital back from another buyer later in the long run (subject to climate apocalypse), so what the heck, buy away. Your net worth rises by nearly half of your mortgage payment right from day one.
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Nov 30, 2019 01:59
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How much is a $1000000 mortgage payment? $4000/month?
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Nov 30, 2019 02:07
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half cocaine posted:How much is a $1000000 mortgage payment? $4000/month? 25 year amortization at 2.69% (I've got friends renewing who are being offered this or better without negotiating), 1m mortgage (ie, 20% down on 1.25m property) monthly payment = 4392, biweekly = 2026. At a 30% debt service ratio that's 14,640 income per month or "perfectly fine" (room to spare!) on a household income of 175,680 per year. That pesky stress test everybody whines about makes qualifying a bit harder though.
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Nov 30, 2019 02:18
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James Baud posted:25 year amortization at 2.69% (I've got friends renewing who are being offered this or better without negotiating), 1m mortgage (ie, 20% down on 1.25m property) monthly payment = 4392, biweekly = 2026. Do your friends all have defined benefit pensions? Or is the theory that they don't need to save any money because their 2 million dollar houses will be worth 8 million in 30 years?
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Nov 30, 2019 03:09
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After taxes that 14k is what, 9k a month? Are your friends all DINKs?
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Nov 30, 2019 03:13
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half cocaine posted:After taxes that 14k is what, 9k a month? Are your friends all DINKs? Probably the sort of people that are considering taking a 25 year mortgage in their mid to later 40s. They probably also have a separate and unrelated retire at 55 plan.
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Nov 30, 2019 04:31
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James Baud posted:As of 2013, the 80th percentile for household income in Vancouver was about 240k, and in Toronto it was just shy of 300k. That's probably climbed at least 10% higher by now. Your numbers are nonsense. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/dv-vd/inc-rev/index-eng.cfm 80th percentile for individuals in Vancouver CMA is $68K. Doubling that for two incomes gets you to $140K. Nowhere near your $240K household income.
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Nov 30, 2019 20:12
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Maybe around 2015 or however many years ago when I started reading this thread, I fully bought into the notion that Vancouver didn't have a 'real' economy and was just a bubble of FIRE endlessly selling houses back and forth and jr miner grifters, however, in the last few years it feels more and more that Vancouver is legitimately developing an economy of real value. quote:Amazon’s Vancouver expansion tripling in size with deal to occupy city’s largest downtown office space 10,000 people earning 6 figure salaries is a lot of real estate money. If WeWork or some other sham company was moving into this space that'd be one thing, but Amazon isn't some fly by night operation that's gonna go away. People may have finally clued into the fact that Hootsuite was all hype, but aside from that tech companies like Microsoft and Kabam have quietly become big operations employing hundreds of people. Add onto this we have Lululemon building a big new global HQ in the False Creek Flats. All this means that while back in 2016 the bubble may have been built by yolo hype, helocs and foreign cash, we're transitioning to a point where there's actually gonna be enough high income earners around to justify the lofty condo prices that we've become used to. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Nov 30, 2019 |
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Nov 30, 2019 20:57
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