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ThomasPaine posted:What precisely makes this poll more accurate than any other, especially given the mass registration we've seen. What did it say this soon before the 2017 election?
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:08 |
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# ? Jun 13, 2024 06:51 |
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ThomasPaine posted:What precisely makes this poll more accurate than any other, especially given the mass registration we've seen. What did it say this soon before the 2017 election? This is YouGov's MRP model. Aside from the BBC exit poll it was by far the most accurate poll of the 2017 election. Although there's a caveat that they released this model a week before the election last time around as opposed to 2 weeks this time.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:10 |
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Leggsy posted:This is YouGov's MRP model. Aside from the BBC exit poll it was by far the most accurate poll of the 2017 election. Although there's a caveat that they released this model a week before the election last time around as opposed to 2 weeks this time. Did they not have it running for quite a few weeks before the election in 2017. I seem to remember it being continually updated.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:11 |
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Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he?
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:11 |
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Chuka Umana posted:Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he? please stfu with your doom mongering
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:11 |
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quote:Boris Johnson is on course for a comfortable majority, according to a polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago. no paywalls kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Nov 27, 2019 |
# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:12 |
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Edit: nope
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:13 |
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peanut- posted:Let's be realistic though, I am very sceptical that a single loving one of those Tories claiming they'll vote Lib Dem will actually do it on election day. Of course not; anyone claiming to be or vote lib dem is scum.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:14 |
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Chuka Umana posted:Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he? Lol have you not followed any of the media for the last 3 years? Fuckers have been hitting Corbyn 24/7 forever, this is hardly new
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:14 |
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They're clearly seeing where the wind is blowing and releasing the final result now to shape the narrative while it's still looking good for the Tories.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:15 |
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Zac Goldsmith is still around? Zac Goldsmith is still trying to get people to vote for him? wow
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:15 |
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Find your hexagon
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:17 |
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Josef bugman posted:Can you talk to her IRL? Doubt I'll have the chance before the election sadly. I think she lives in the LIB/CON marginal next door though, so that's at least a vote that won't matter not being for Labour
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:17 |
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This model itself doesn't do any polling - it assumes a national vote and then models that onto individual constituences. in 2017 the model was updated as new polls come in. it only became really accurate 3-4 days before the election. SO national movement will swing this. I'm assuming there's not going to be a live site this time around though.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:18 |
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Just caught up on about 12 pages of thread due the joys of waking up at 5am, to leave the house at 6am to start work in Bracknell at 8am because I'm going to be off the road for the majority of the next month and jedit - thanks for the story of the big Irish printer, but i have enough problems with the medium-sized office bound ones, I want nothing to do with no digital print press bastard
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:18 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:Find your hexagon canterbury still red
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:18 |
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love that people have to be told that polls are bullshit over and over again and exist only to push a narrative, so that we are constantly in a cycle of brief and hesitant optimism before crashing down in to annoying, repetitive doom saying.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:19 |
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its genuinely weird they'd release it this early https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1199814957682036736?s=20
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:20 |
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I think there will be a live site in a bit but this seems to a "buy our paper" Times exclusive at the minute
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:20 |
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I can't believe that after a decade of austerity and brexit bullshit the Tories are going to pick up 58 seats and gain a majority.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:20 |
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https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1199797040135442438 What about this?
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:21 |
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so, so many of you need to have a full time therapist.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:21 |
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The YouGov MRP poll being held up as super-accurate was done literally the day before the election, 7 June. This methodology is specifically way more accurate the closer to polling day we are. If this was a couple days out from the election I'd say it's over but the wind is absolutely blowing our way and we can win this poo poo.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22 |
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Yeah, no, Rotherham isn't turning Tory lol
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:Find your hexagon I'm guessing that's one of the Portsmouth constituencies as Labour. Can't see Mordaunt getting unseated in the North, and the candidates in the South are pretty lacklustre and a quick survey (well, the walk to the off-licence on Palmerston Road from my house) saw 6 Labour window posters, one Lib Dem, and one combined Lib Dem/Tory split as in Tory poster in half the window, Lib Dem in the other. Labour might actually keep hold of this consituency, despite the city's inherent dislike of the colour red
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22 |
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seizure later posted:love that people have to be told that polls are bullshit over and over again and exist only to push a narrative, so that we are constantly in a cycle of brief and hesitant optimism before crashing down in to annoying, repetitive doom saying. Propaganda works, its not people's fault that so much of it gets pumped out every day
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22 |
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Yeah, I think that there is a bit of negativity around the Chief Rabbi thing still lingering, but I also have hope that things will still function fairly well when it comes to the day itself. Quick question though, does any Marxist talk about psychology at all? Like for helping oneself?
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22 |
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Jose posted:its genuinely weird they'd release it this early It's yougov that's all you need to know. I went to the imperial war museum yesterday and ashcroft's gallery is a heap of garbage too, gently caress him hump day bitches! posted:I can't believe that after a decade of austerity and brexit bullshit the Tories are going to pick up 58 seats and gain a majority. This is very much not a given
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22 |
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Jose posted:its genuinely weird they'd release it this early Always remember that the point of public polling is to influence public opinion, not to measure it. They're just trying to demoralize Labour voters.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:23 |
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Why the gently caress is Sedgefield a marginal?
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:23 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:Find your hexagon purely anecdotal but what the gently caress? Norwich is never going to vote Tory - I call nonsense. haakman fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Nov 27, 2019 |
# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:23 |
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Comrades, comrades, all will be fine. The Octopus is with us https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pc0FLC8H7D8
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:24 |
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unwantedplatypus posted:Propaganda works, its not people's fault that so much of it gets pumped out every day lamenting in negative thought and then purposefully inflicting it on other people isn't healthy for yourself or for anyone else.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:24 |
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I know there's a goon who lives in Hyndburn (or was?) which is the constituency next to mine in Lancashire. I work in Hyndburn. I have insane doubts that it'd turn Tory, but I might be wrong. Not saying that Graham Jones doesn't deserve to be out on his pathetic, Saudi-worshipping arse, but turning Tory is a big, big ask.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:25 |
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ShaneMacGowansTeeth posted:I'm guessing that's one of the Portsmouth constituencies as Labour. Can't see Mordaunt getting unseated in the North, and the candidates in the South are pretty lacklustre and a quick survey (well, the walk to the off-licence on Palmerston Road from my house) saw 6 Labour window posters, one Lib Dem, and one combined Lib Dem/Tory split as in Tory poster in half the window, Lib Dem in the other. Labour might actually keep hold of this consituency, despite the city's inherent dislike of the colour red Aye Portsmouth South - They have as Labour 41.98%, Tory 34.63%, LibDem 15.68% and Brexit 5.87%
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:26 |
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Chuka Umana posted:Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he? You're getting a swirlee everytime you post like this
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:27 |
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Maybe when you see a projection that contains multiple extremely improbable swings it's smarter to conclude that the polling is garbage rather than just blindly trust in the proclamations of modern day entrail readers?
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:27 |
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seizure later posted:so, so many of you need to have a full time therapist. Good luck finding one under the American run NHS.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:27 |
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would probably drop the majority to maybe 40ish. those couple of points in brexit if concentrated in the right areas wold be huge. There are a tonne of very close midlands seats
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:28 |
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# ? Jun 13, 2024 06:51 |
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Chuka Umana posted:Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he? No. Stop knee jerk reactions to every poll. It's rotten for your health and has no value. One poll matters & it's the election. Be depressed if Labour loses, until then, head down, campaign. Knock on doors, convince your friends & family & co-workers, whatever it takes.
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# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:29 |