UKMT November 2019 - Andrew Can't Denounce Epstein Properly

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT November 2019 - Andrew Can't Denounce Epstein Properly

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Apraxin: Feb 22, 2006; General-Admiral

ThomasPaine posted:

What precisely makes this poll more accurate than any other, especially given the mass registration we've seen. What did it say this soon before the 2017 election?

2017 version was pretty close to the actual result, but published a week closer to the election.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:08

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# ? Jun 12, 2024 18:33

Leggsy: Apr 30, 2008; We'll take our chances...

ThomasPaine posted:

What precisely makes this poll more accurate than any other, especially given the mass registration we've seen. What did it say this soon before the 2017 election?

This is YouGov's MRP model. Aside from the BBC exit poll it was by far the most accurate poll of the 2017 election. Although there's a caveat that they released this model a week before the election last time around as opposed to 2 weeks this time.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:10

ThomasPaine: Feb 4, 2009; We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.

Leggsy posted:

This is YouGov's MRP model. Aside from the BBC exit poll it was by far the most accurate poll of the 2017 election. Although there's a caveat that they released this model a week before the election last time around as opposed to 2 weeks this time.

Did they not have it running for quite a few weeks before the election in 2017. I seem to remember it being continually updated.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:11

Chuka Umana: Apr 30, 2019; by sebmojo

Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he?

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:11

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

Chuka Umana posted:

Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he?

please stfu with your doom mongering

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:11

kustomkarkommando: Oct 22, 2012

quote:

Boris Johnson is on course for a comfortable majority, according to a polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago.

The Conservatives would win 359 seats, Labour 211, the SNP 43 and the Lib Dems 13 if the election were held today, according to a seat-by-seat analysis based on current polling by YouGov for The Times.

That result would give Mr Johnson a majority of 68 as he made gains at Labour�s expense, particularly in the Midlands and north of England. Labour would suffer its second-worst postwar defeat, with Jeremy Corbyn�s total two above Michael Foot�s in 1983.

However, the projected margins of victory are below 5 per cent in at least 30 seats predicted to be Conservative. YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 percentage points to less than 7 could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority.

Based on more than 100,000 interviews over seven days, the pollster has modelled voting preferences based on age, gender, education, past vote and other factors, along with local political circumstances. The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model is then applied to the demographic make-up and individual characteristics of each of the 632 constituencies in the United Kingdom to provide projected vote shares for each seat.

It was used for the first time in a general election in 2017. The Times published a YouGov-MRP poll that accurately predicted a hung parliament when many other polls were pointing to a big Tory majority ten days from the vote on June 8.

Today�s version is based on national vote shares of the Conservatives on 43, Labour 32, Lib Dems 14 and the Brexit Party 3. The pollster will repeat the model before election day using updated results. The analysis suggests that this time Mr Johnson is holding off the Lib Dem threat in most Tory seats that voted to remain and will not suffer anything like the wipeout in Scotland that some had predicted.

Of the 58 seats predicted to change hands on December 12, 44 are Tory gains from Labour. However, Labour is within 3 points of retaining 16 seats the model predicts it would lose now.

The SNP would recover some of its losses in Scotland, taking eight seats from rival parties under the model. It predicts that the Tories would lose two of their 12 Scottish seats and Labour would lose five.

The analysis suggests that the casualties for Labour could include Dennis Skinner in Bolsover and Caroline Flint in Don Valley despite their support for Brexit in the Commons. For the Tories Zac Goldsmith appears doomed in Richmond Park. Mr Johnson is forecast to hold Uxbridge comfortably.

If the prime minister achieves this result he will have torn down the �red wall� of Labour seats from Great Grimsby to the Vale of Clwyd in a realignment of politics. His aide, Dominic Cummings, warned against complacency, writing in his blog: �Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.�

The biggest Tory swings are forecast in constituencies with the strongest Leave vote. In West Bromwich East the analysis suggested that the party was on course to overturn a 7,713-vote majority; in Don Valley they are expected to overturn a majority of 5,169.

Six Labour marginals that have never voted Conservative would turn blue, as would at least nine seats that have been Labour since the Second World War.

The Lib Dems are forecast to make one net gain on 2017. The SNP would make gains but the Scottish Tories would avoid the wipeout strategists feared. The Brexit Party wins no seats.

The modelling suggests that Labour seats with majorities below 8,000 begin to fall in north Wales, where the Tories are forecast to win four seats: Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South, Wrexham and Ynys Mon.

The biggest Tory gains are forecast to be in the Midlands, where it could pick up nine seats from Labour. In the West Midlands, the potential Conservative gains include Dudley North, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East and Wolverhampton South West.

In Nottinghamshire, the modelling suggests the Tories would pick up Ashfield and Bassetlaw. In Derbyshire potential gains include Bolsover and Derby North. In Staffordshire the party is predicted to gain three seats: Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke-on-Trent Central and Stoke-on-Trent North.

In Cheshire the model projects that the Tories would win three seats � Crewe & Nantwich, Warrington South and Weaver Vale. Bury South and Leigh in Greater Manchester were also expected to turn blue, and Blackpool South and Hyndburn in Lancashire.

There are also significant gains in Yorkshire, with the Tories picking up three seats in South Yorkshire � Don Valley, Penistone & Stocksbridge and Rother Valley � and four in West Yorkshire including Dewsbury, Keighley and Wakefield. Bishop Auckland, Darlington and Stockton South are all expected to turn blue in the northeast.

Under the model the Lib Dems would gain only one seat on the 12 it won at the last election � far fewer than the 20 it had when parliament was dissolved this month thanks to a spate of high-profile defections. No defectors would win their seats, the analysis suggests.

The party would retake Sheffield Hallam, Sir Nick Clegg�s former seat, from Labour, and the Remain strongholds of Cheltenham, Richmond Park and St Albans from the Tories. It would lose Eastbourne and North Norfolk to the Conservatives and one of its Scottish seats to the SNP. Were that result borne out on December 12 it would prompt an inquest into Jo Swinson�s leadership of the party she took over in July.

The Brexit Party, which has stood aside in all the seats the Tories won last time, appears to have widespread support in a few seats. In the Labour strongholds of Barnsley Central and Barnsley East it is on 25 and 24 per cent respectively, although Labour still has a commanding lead in both. In Hartlepool, where Richard Tice, the Brexit Party chairman, is the candidate, it is on 23 per cent, behind the Conservatives on 31 and Labour on 40.

The SNP�s 43 seats would be an improvement of eight on 2017. Five gains would come from Labour, two from the Tories and one from the Lib Dems.

Scottish Conservatives had feared a much worse result north of the border, having expanded rapidly from one MP in 2015 to 13 in 2017. Only two of those 13 � Paul Masterton in East Renfrewshire and Stephen Kerr in Stirling � would lose. Mr Masterton, however, is within a percentage point of the SNP

no paywalls

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Nov 27, 2019

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:12

Vlex: Aug 4, 2006; I'd rather be a climbing ape than a big titty angel.

Edit: nope

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:13

Chuff McNothing: Sep 9, 2019; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

peanut- posted:

Let's be realistic though, I am very sceptical that a single loving one of those Tories claiming they'll vote Lib Dem will actually do it on election day.

Of course not; anyone claiming to be or vote lib dem is scum.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:14

Pochoclo: Feb 4, 2008; No...; Clapping Larry

Chuka Umana posted:

Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he?

Lol have you not followed any of the media for the last 3 years? Fuckers have been hitting Corbyn 24/7 forever, this is hardly new

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:14

Cerebral Bore: Apr 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

They're clearly seeing where the wind is blowing and releasing the final result now to shape the narrative while it's still looking good for the Tories.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:15

Angepain: Jul 13, 2012; what keeps happening to my clothes

Zac Goldsmith is still around? Zac Goldsmith is still trying to get people to vote for him? wow

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:15

kustomkarkommando: Oct 22, 2012

Find your hexagon

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:17

thespaceinvader: Mar 30, 2011; The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

Josef bugman posted:

Can you talk to her IRL?

Doubt I'll have the chance before the election sadly.

I think she lives in the LIB/CON marginal next door though, so that's at least a vote that won't matter not being for Labour

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:17

Chuff McNothing: Sep 9, 2019; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

This model itself doesn't do any polling - it assumes a national vote and then models that onto individual constituences.

in 2017 the model was updated as new polls come in. it only became really accurate 3-4 days before the election. SO national movement will swing this.

I'm assuming there's not going to be a live site this time around though.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:18

ShaneMacGowansTeeth: May 22, 2007; I think this is it... I think this is how it ends

Just caught up on about 12 pages of thread due the joys of waking up at 5am, to leave the house at 6am to start work in Bracknell at 8am because I'm going to be off the road for the majority of the next month and jedit - thanks for the story of the big Irish printer, but i have enough problems with the medium-sized office bound ones, I want nothing to do with no digital print press bastard

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:18

Chuff McNothing: Sep 9, 2019; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

kustomkarkommando posted:

Find your hexagon

canterbury still red

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:18

seizure later: Apr 18, 2007

love that people have to be told that polls are bullshit over and over again and exist only to push a narrative, so that we are constantly in a cycle of brief and hesitant optimism before crashing down in to annoying, repetitive doom saying.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:19

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

its genuinely weird they'd release it this early

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1199814957682036736?s=20

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:20

kustomkarkommando: Oct 22, 2012

I think there will be a live site in a bit but this seems to a "buy our paper" Times exclusive at the minute

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:20

hump day bitches!: Apr 3, 2011

I can't believe that after a decade of austerity and brexit bullshit the Tories are going to pick up 58 seats and gain a majority.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:20

Chuka Umana: Apr 30, 2019; by sebmojo

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1199797040135442438

What about this?

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:21

seizure later: Apr 18, 2007

so, so many of you need to have a full time therapist.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:21

mfcrocker: Jan 31, 2004; Hot Rope Guy

The YouGov MRP poll being held up as super-accurate was done literally the day before the election, 7 June. This methodology is specifically way more accurate the closer to polling day we are.

If this was a couple days out from the election I'd say it's over but the wind is absolutely blowing our way and we can win this poo poo.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22

Mesopotamia: Apr 12, 2010

Yeah, no, Rotherham isn't turning Tory lol

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22

ShaneMacGowansTeeth: May 22, 2007; I think this is it... I think this is how it ends

kustomkarkommando posted:

Find your hexagon

I'm guessing that's one of the Portsmouth constituencies as Labour. Can't see Mordaunt getting unseated in the North, and the candidates in the South are pretty lacklustre and a quick survey (well, the walk to the off-licence on Palmerston Road from my house) saw 6 Labour window posters, one Lib Dem, and one combined Lib Dem/Tory split as in Tory poster in half the window, Lib Dem in the other. Labour might actually keep hold of this consituency, despite the city's inherent dislike of the colour red

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22

unwantedplatypus: Sep 6, 2012

seizure later posted:

love that people have to be told that polls are bullshit over and over again and exist only to push a narrative, so that we are constantly in a cycle of brief and hesitant optimism before crashing down in to annoying, repetitive doom saying.

Propaganda works, its not people's fault that so much of it gets pumped out every day

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22

Josef bugman: Nov 17, 2011; Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Yeah, I think that there is a bit of negativity around the Chief Rabbi thing still lingering, but I also have hope that things will still function fairly well when it comes to the day itself.

Quick question though, does any Marxist talk about psychology at all? Like for helping oneself?

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22

ThomasPaine: Feb 4, 2009; We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.

Jose posted:

its genuinely weird they'd release it this early

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1199814957682036736?s=20

It's yougov that's all you need to know.

I went to the imperial war museum yesterday and ashcroft's gallery is a heap of garbage too, gently caress him

hump day bitches! posted:

I can't believe that after a decade of austerity and brexit bullshit the Tories are going to pick up 58 seats and gain a majority.

This is very much not a given

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:22

Cerebral Bore: Apr 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

Jose posted:

its genuinely weird they'd release it this early

Always remember that the point of public polling is to influence public opinion, not to measure it. They're just trying to demoralize Labour voters.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:23

Chuka Umana: Apr 30, 2019; by sebmojo

Why the gently caress is Sedgefield a marginal?

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:23

haakman: May 5, 2011

kustomkarkommando posted:

Find your hexagon

purely anecdotal but what the gently caress? Norwich is never going to vote Tory - I call nonsense.

haakman fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Nov 27, 2019

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:23

RockyB: Mar 8, 2007; Dog Therapy: Shockingly Good

Comrades, comrades, all will be fine. The Octopus is with us

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pc0FLC8H7D8

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:24

seizure later: Apr 18, 2007

unwantedplatypus posted:

Propaganda works, its not people's fault that so much of it gets pumped out every day

lamenting in negative thought and then purposefully inflicting it on other people isn't healthy for yourself or for anyone else.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:24

Sycophantry: Jan 4, 2009

I know there's a goon who lives in Hyndburn (or was?) which is the constituency next to mine in Lancashire. I work in Hyndburn.

I have insane doubts that it'd turn Tory, but I might be wrong. Not saying that Graham Jones doesn't deserve to be out on his pathetic, Saudi-worshipping arse, but turning Tory is a big, big ask.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:25

kustomkarkommando: Oct 22, 2012

ShaneMacGowansTeeth posted:

I'm guessing that's one of the Portsmouth constituencies as Labour. Can't see Mordaunt getting unseated in the North, and the candidates in the South are pretty lacklustre and a quick survey (well, the walk to the off-licence on Palmerston Road from my house) saw 6 Labour window posters, one Lib Dem, and one combined Lib Dem/Tory split as in Tory poster in half the window, Lib Dem in the other. Labour might actually keep hold of this consituency, despite the city's inherent dislike of the colour red

Aye Portsmouth South - They have as Labour 41.98%, Tory 34.63%, LibDem 15.68% and Brexit 5.87%

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:26

serious gaylord: Sep 16, 2007; what.

Chuka Umana posted:

Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he?

You're getting a swirlee everytime you post like this

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:27

Cerebral Bore: Apr 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

Maybe when you see a projection that contains multiple extremely improbable swings it's smarter to conclude that the polling is garbage rather than just blindly trust in the proclamations of modern day entrail readers?

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:27

Judge Tesla: Oct 29, 2011

seizure later posted:

so, so many of you need to have a full time therapist.

Good luck finding one under the American run NHS.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:27

Chuff McNothing: Sep 9, 2019; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Chuka Umana posted:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1199797040135442438

What about this?

would probably drop the majority to maybe 40ish. those couple of points in brexit if concentrated in the right areas wold be huge. There are a tonne of very close midlands seats

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:28

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# ? Jun 12, 2024 18:33

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

Chuka Umana posted:

Andrew Neil really hosed up this election didn't he?

No. Stop knee jerk reactions to every poll. It's rotten for your health and has no value. One poll matters & it's the election. Be depressed if Labour loses, until then, head down, campaign. Knock on doors, convince your friends & family & co-workers, whatever it takes.

# ? Nov 27, 2019 23:29

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT November 2019 - Andrew Can't Denounce Epstein Properly

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