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Lord Ludikrous posted:Keep in mind though that the Conservative voter base is quite literally dying off, and last time the Tories literally cannibalised nearly the entire UKIP voter base. The more important thing to remember is that in 2017 the Tories were standing against Kippers. This time they are not. Take a look at that graph showing that three quarters of BXP voters are now voting Tory. They swapped because Farage stood down his candidates, but they almost all did so in seats the Tories already hold. I can't recall if I posted this statistic before, but the Tories have 163 ultra-safe seats (30% or greater lead) while Labour have only 45 including Chorley, which doesn't count. The Tory vote is thus already much more tightly concentrated; it's why LAB -7 can indicate no overall Tory majority. Now, thanks to Farage they've gained several more percentage points, but all it's really done is mean there are 200 ultra-safe Tories and we could see a hung Parliament at LAB -10. In summary: if the 2019 polls match the 2017 polls at the same point in time, Labour are actually closer now than they were then. E: the Commodore 64 was not a British computer, but it was better than the Spectrum.
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Dec 5, 2019 11:42
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I've been reading The Lord of the Rings when I can't sleep (which is often) because it's comforting as heck to disappear into all his lush landscapes and ludicrously detailed fictional history, but it's also got some choice quotes for heartening comrades in the face of defeat 'Far above the Ephel Dúath in the West the night-sky was still dim and pale. There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach. His song in the Tower had been defiance rather than hope; for then he was thinking of himself. Now, for a moment, his own fate, and even his master’s ceased to trouble him. He crawled back into the brambles and laid himself by Frodo’s side, and putting away all fear he cast himself into a deep untroubled sleep.' 'No more debates disturbed his mind. He knew all the arguments of despair and would not listen to them. His will was set, and only death would break it. ' ‘If the war is lost, what good will be my hiding in the hills? And if it is won, what grief will it be, even if I fall, spending my last strength?’
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Dec 5, 2019 11:46
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2017 was a roller-coaster for me. When the election was called it seemed like we were hosed. Then, when things started to look like they were improving I scarcely wanted to believe it. When the polls just kept narrowing I was taken over by this bubbly, incredulous optimism that's never really gone away. This year? This year I feel motherfucking invincible. Believe, friends. We are going to vote Corbyn in so hard they're going to be picking pieces of Johnson off the walls.
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Dec 5, 2019 11:48
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KOGAHAZAN!! posted:2017 was a roller-coaster for me. When the election was called it seemed like we were hosed. Then, when things started to look like they were improving I scarcely wanted to believe it. When the polls just kept narrowing I was taken over by this bubbly, incredulous optimism that's never really gone away. Spaff Johnson up the wall, comrades! 
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Dec 5, 2019 11:49
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The numbers are a little similar for the end of the Thatcher/Major tenure - a majority whittled down to nothing followed by a landslide. If you, personally, were to put the polls and internet to one side and considered what it is you're seeing day-to-day and conversations you're overhearing, I believe that change is coming. Lifelong Tories either not voting or switching parties. People who've never voted before going for Labour. For every boomer who can't connect the dots to voting Tory harms the generations below, there are more engaged young people actually going out and doing something about it - so many of my friends or people I work with have been out knocking on doors. Of course, there's the 'bubble', but I work with people from a wide variety of backgrounds across the North - people give a poo poo.
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Dec 5, 2019 11:52
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With a week to go here's your reminder to get your bets in https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/101ShRNc4MC1YtBI2XE0ru8rda4aTlNBaIytsutD-QIc/edit#gid=1959274628 17 takers so far, i know we have more posters than that 
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Dec 5, 2019 11:53
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 https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1202537570124619782?s=20
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Dec 5, 2019 11:54
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JeremoudCorbynejad posted:With a week to go here's your reminder to get your bets in Pissflaps needs to sort his bet out.
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Dec 5, 2019 11:56
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Thanks for the positive effortposts guys, I've been feeling low lately and I'm weaning off my antidepressants so it's been hard not to despair lately. Your posts are really helping!
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Dec 5, 2019 11:58
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Barry Foster posted:I've been reading The Lord of the Rings when I can't sleep (which is often) because it's comforting as heck to disappear into all his lush landscapes and ludicrously detailed fictional history, but it's also got some choice quotes for heartening comrades in the face of defeat And in the far distance, he saw Jorc; and her war party stuck in an ent, with squirrels blocking all escape routes down or outwards, just watching and waiting. Waiting for them to make a mistake.    Welcome to Part 3 of JoSwin's Bizarre Adventure to Middle Earth, where something finally happens!  Part 1 Part 2 Bonus DVD extra
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Dec 5, 2019 12:02
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lol one of the things listed in the annex of that document is that labour appointed someone as asked but that his position is questionable because he mdae public statements supporting jewish voice for labour its also important that it appears to have been leaked wtihout the appendix that has the actual documentation of all instances of antisemitism
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Dec 5, 2019 12:03
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Starting to think this 'leak' was a deliberate publication by the not-required-to-be-Jewish JLM which seems to have a load of gentile Blairites in its ranks. No reason to be suspicious there. It owns that the conspiracy theory is that Jewish people run the media but in this case it's a bunch of non-Jewish people pretending to be Jewish to control the media.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:09
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*thinking really hard* do you ever think the right-wing owns the media
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Dec 5, 2019 12:10
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Can someone explain why Oz Katerji has the submission to leak in the first place?
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Dec 5, 2019 12:11
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Remember that whatever the result next week, this is merely a battle in an ongoing war. Even with a Labour win, it's going to take longer than one term to unfuck everything and the media will be on all out attack mode on a Labour govt from day one. The only lives that have got better since 2017 are those that are locked in Tory anyway. The rest are all to play for and Labour's ground game is cutting through. The fact all the media can really do is blast the anti-Semitism angle at 11 while floundering through the same tired old smears from 2017, from a press that is considered the least trustworthy in Europe, speaks volumes. They are shook as gently caress and our time is coming. Reminder: https://twitter.com/UKDemockery/status/1198726817206722560
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Dec 5, 2019 12:12
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TheRat posted:Can someone explain why Oz Katerji has the submission to leak in the first place? He's a Nazi who hates the left so he's a useful vector.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:12
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2019 is a sequence of increasingly rattled melty types baffled that committing career hara-kiri hasn't unseated Jeremy Corbyn
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Dec 5, 2019 12:12
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Tesseraction posted:Starting to think this 'leak' was a deliberate publication by the not-required-to-be-Jewish JLM which seems to have a load of gentile Blairites in its ranks. No reason to be suspicious there. They also didn't exist until 2015 lol
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Dec 5, 2019 12:12
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I was out of the country for the 2017 election so I missed out on all of the build-up and everything that happened afterwards. I was dreading and expecting a Tory landslide so it was loving amazing to bump into some random English guy in a Polish nightclub at 2AM telling me about the hung parliament.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:12
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Isomermaid posted:2019 is a sequence of increasingly rattled melty types baffled that committing career hara-kiri hasn't unseated Jeremy Corbyn "I keep loving a baby on live television and saying Corbyn did it and these whining paupers have the temerity to call me Childfucker Steve on twitter'
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Dec 5, 2019 12:14
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https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1202539484761534470?s=19 Seems like a good move, hopes it's mentioned. Still won't watch.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:15
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BizarroAzrael posted:https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1202539484761534470?s=19 It's gonna be Labour vs three cunts and Ian Blackford taking sideswipes when convenient.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:17
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Bundy posted:Remember that whatever the result next week, this is merely a battle in an ongoing war. Even with a Labour win, it's going to take longer than one term to unfuck everything and the media will be on all out attack mode on a Labour govt from day one. Hell yes
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Dec 5, 2019 12:17
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Purple Prince posted:I'm outta the UK early next year, which I feel very privileged to be able to do. not to be a dick but there's no chance of electing socialism in this system. we should only be looking at corbyn as a nudge towards something better. and if he tries to pivot to a full anti-capitalist platform make no mistake, they *will* kill him and set up a dictatorship to put down the resulting unrest. receipts for this claim are only a google away. i agree if the tories win next week i am more or less done with electoral politics entirely tbh. if they win it demonstrates the british public are hosed, so i'm a ghost at that point, i'm moving somewhere else. gently caress em all.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:17
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When do you think the Guardian will do its editorial to endorse the Lib Dems?
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Dec 5, 2019 12:20
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BizarroAzrael posted:https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1202539484761534470?s=19 Labour putting a woman on at the last minute is a good way to put a spotlight on Tice' obvious misogyny. In the last debate, the look of disgust on his face whenever the opposite sex had the nerve to disagree with him was palpable.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:22
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What would a first pass journalism reform look like? I’d like to take newspapers out of private ownership completely but what if you make it so that journalists within an outfit vote collectively for their editorial board (secret ballot) and the editor has complete immunity from being fired while and for a year after finishing a term. Just take editorial control completely out of the hands of the owners.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:23
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Tesseraction posted:When do you think the Guardian will do its editorial to endorse the Lib Dems? too obvious, they trade on their lefty cred. halfhearted Corbyn endorsement with backhanded compliments and a strong "anyone but Boris" energy, as late as is possible imo
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Dec 5, 2019 12:24
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The solution is to arm John McDonnell
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Dec 5, 2019 12:24
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CoolCab posted:too obvious, they trade on their lefty cred. halfhearted Corbyn endorsement with backhanded compliments and a strong "anyone but Boris" energy, as late as is possible imo More seriously they will endorse "Vote Tactical" but really if you read their frontpage it's like a Lib Dem leaflet. All about Brexit when it's Tories, all about anti-Semitism or "troubles" for the Labour Party, cheerfully declaring that Swinson has absolved herself of any wrongdoing over austerity.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:26
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https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1202549775465435136?s=20
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Dec 5, 2019 12:29
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JeremoudCorbynejad posted:Link? I'm not sure I've seen this and i must https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuA4gi8_SFc&t=323s
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Dec 5, 2019 12:30
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Hmm I'd watched that one but she didn't look particularly upset (though she certainly wasn't beaming) - do you have a timestamp perchance?
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Dec 5, 2019 12:32
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She sounds like she's going to cry lol
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Dec 5, 2019 12:33
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ughhhhhhhhh please let this work I don't care how I just need us to not have a loving nazi still in number 10 by mid december
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Dec 5, 2019 12:33
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ever since someone posted about the small c conservative/bad weather relationship I've noticed that the express and the sun are, every day, predicting -15c winter storms that will kill your family and it will be loving laughs all round if this doesn't actually favour the large f Fascist tory party with the likes of Johnson, Patel and Javid as senior figures
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Dec 5, 2019 12:33
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forkboy84 posted:Same but that oval office Kinnock's face. Oh god yeah. I've said it before but the tableau of his wife (who presumably is a rather more skilled political operator than him, having been PM of Denmark rather than a loving Welsh Hapsburg) glaring at him as his perfectly smooth brain attempts to process what has happened is *exactly* like a man who's just driven his car into a river looking for a shortcut to Ikea, despite his wife telling him for 10 miles that he was heading in the wrong direction: 
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Dec 5, 2019 12:35
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Spangly A posted:ever since someone posted about the small c conservative/bad weather relationship I've noticed that the express and the sun are, every day, predicting -15c winter storms that will kill your family Kinda hoping it wipes out a bunch of the fascist cunts. The sheer bullshit of the campaign is making me Extremely Tankie at this point and I need to calm the gently caress down.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:35
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 even with the ten point lead from last week, the Tories have a majority of only 28.
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Dec 5, 2019 12:36
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incredible political analysis https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1202542579553853440
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Dec 5, 2019 12:36
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