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Blyth Valley had a Labour majority of 7,915 and if it falls, or even is close, it's a clear sign of a landslide coming.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:09
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OwlFancier posted:Again it is entirely possible for the national vote share to be quite accurate but due to the way the votes are distributed, with tories going up in labour marginals and labour going up in tory strongholds, it being a massive loss for labour, and marginal-specific constituency polling would show this better than a national vote share extrapolated via haruspicy. parliamentary district first-past-the-post is a completely shitheaded system, jesus loving christ
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Dec 13, 2019 00:09
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HidaO-Win posted:Sorry for this UK Goons.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:09
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Dec 13, 2019 00:09
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HidaO-Win posted:Sorry for this UK Goons. I'm Irish and we could of waited longer, its a bit poo poo to get our country back at the expense of another's.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:09
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The left aren’t going to win an election in the UK/US/AU in my lifetime. The Labour/Democrats/Labor party may, but only by shifting even further right to be unrecognisable and kissing the Murdoch ring
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Dec 13, 2019 00:10
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Watching Sky and both Cleverly and Raab really aren't crowing very much. They keep saying "it's just a poll, we'll see" - not what I expected at all.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:10
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hahahahahahaha wretched country
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Dec 13, 2019 00:10
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It doesn't seem like the center left in the UK is as angered by Johnson as it is in the US by Trump.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:10
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exit poll seems to point toward the most absurd possible outcome, with boris johnson and jo swinson both losing their seats despite a tory majority forming
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Dec 13, 2019 00:10
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Ursine Catastrophe posted:Sleep now, worry about tomorrow tomorrow i had a power nap i am cool for like another hour or so
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Dec 13, 2019 00:11
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i guess i can get some catharsis in all you britnats clamouring to escape to scotland
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Dec 13, 2019 00:11
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Gravitas Shortfall posted:Yes but we all know he is, everyone knows he is, and no-one cares. This is the new normal. They can do whatever they want. This is what kills me. He literally hid in a fridge to avoid any short of scrutiny on his vision. He has nothing to offer. But he's now going to be remembered as the leader of one of the most successful tory campaigns in history if these numbers hold. And all that's going to do, is have opposition strategists now adopting the same. Politics has become so very, very hosed.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:11
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TTerrible posted:Watching Sky and both Cleverly and Raab really aren't crowing very much. They keep saying "it's just a poll, we'll see" - not what I expected at all. Remember that clip of Stephen Kinnock's wife in 2017, yelling at him to not say anything yet because he doesn't actually know anything yet? They're all thinking like that.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:11
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Venuz Patrol posted:exit poll seems to point toward the most absurd possible outcome, with boris johnson and jo swinson both losing their seats despite a tory majority forming I would almost be worth it if those cunts lose their seats
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Dec 13, 2019 00:11
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bbc have ashfield at 90 odd percent to flip tory i don't drink but jesus christ i want to right now
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Dec 13, 2019 00:11
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They're recounting Blyth loving valley. Blyth valley
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Dec 13, 2019 00:12
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gilljoy posted:As someone who lives in Belfast. gently caress me we are super hosed now I am most worried for you guys. The biggest challenge will be trying to find some accommodation that keeps Northern Ireland from turning back to the 1970s. Keep safe.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:12
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JerikTelorian posted:I'm sorry UK Goons. Please take care of yourselves. Hope is not a lie. If you feel gutpunched right now that's good because it means you still care enough to hope. Apathetic acceptance of hellworld timeline is when you know you've actually lost, and the reaction of this thread to the exit polls prove we are not lost.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:12
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mcmagic posted:It doesn't seem like the center left in the UK is as angered by Johnson as it is in the US by Trump. He's a toff and the English loving love a good toff
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Dec 13, 2019 00:12
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Blyth Valley doing a re-count. Exit poll probably correct.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:12
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Ursine Catastrophe posted:denial There's a lot of "bargaining" going on with people talking about exit poll methodologies.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:12
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Slake Fistcrunch posted:i don't drink but jesus christ i want to right now loving mood.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:12
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Pistol_Pete posted:This is what the 1980's must've felt like when Thatcher kept getting elected. It is. We couldn't believe it then either. (Pending real results confirming exit poll ofc). This is not the end. This is a temporary set back. The struggle never rests. Be kind to yourselves and each other, help others out if you can, don't beat yourself up if you can't. If (when) the government ceases to care about the welfare of you or yours focus on self-sufficiency (but never fail to demand what little they grudgingly say you are entitled to), create networks (keep in touch with the new comrades met on the campaign trail!) for mutual aid, remain humane it's what marks you out as different from the Tory scum. Angela Davis posted:You have to act as if it were possible to radically transform the world. And you have to do it all the time.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:13
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Venuz Patrol posted:exit poll seems to point toward the most absurd possible outcome, with boris johnson and jo swinson both losing their seats despite a tory majority forming A small beacon of light in a pit of darkness.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:13
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I thought it would be bad but... not this bad.Even if the exit polls are wrong they won't be that wrong. I should probably sleep. I don't know what the next steps are.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:13
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I don't know if I can deal with this. Thank you for your explanations. Peace and love to all in this thread.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:13
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gilljoy posted:As someone who lives in Belfast. gently caress me we are super hosed now My sister moved there a few years ago, she was crying down the phone at the thought of what might happen a few days ago, I dread to think what she'll be like now.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:14
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And I hope that you die And your death will come soon I'll follow your casket By the pale afternoon And I'll watch while you're lowered Down to your deathbed And I'll stand over your grave 'Til I'm sure that you're dead
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Dec 13, 2019 00:14
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I’m trying to stay strong. For the first time i’m planning to look for voluntary stuff for helping the homeless in this area, who are literally being left to die. And I kinda calm down. And then I remember the NHS is likely to be gone in a few years. And I lose it. In a few years time I might be paying hundreds for medication. Hundreds I don’t have. And I don’t have it that bad. But it’s enough that what little comfort I had on this terrible island is now gone. In a few years I might be left to just die from a treatable disease, or at best just be put into a debt I cannot hope to pay off. So I guess that’s the new fight now. Wait for their plans to commence and then commit to civil disorder and protest. One has to hope that the destruction of the NHS will cause riots. It’s the only thing left now. However unlikely.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:14
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OwlFancier posted:I think I went directly from depression to acceptance in the span of about 45 minutes. from my american perspective, that's pretty good. took me about 3 days post-Trump.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:15
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gently caress this country. I spent my childhood surrounded by inbred Tories who thought they were better than everyone because they had a couple of quid to rub together, and now those people are running the country for the foreseeable future. Snapped at a Tory earlier and called him nonce supporting wall fodder. I'm out of this country next year and I don't think I will come back. What kind of loving country dangles hope in front of your collective faces only to snatch it away? It's happened every time I've had hope in my loving life. Consider me radicalised.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:15
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OwlFancier posted:I think I went directly from depression to acceptance in the span of about 45 minutes. Same, I think I was expecting this really, there's something really wrong with the Midlands
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Dec 13, 2019 00:15
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Marmaduke! posted:My sister moved there a few years ago, she was crying down the phone at the thought of what might happen a few days ago, I dread to think what she'll be like now. It really depends on a the rumoured assembly election, I recon if the nationalist parties get a majority there'll be a push for a border poll.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:15
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goddamnedtwisto posted:It's the exact same methodology and constituencies as they polled last time. wasn't there talk of *mutes mark francois* a new per-constituency predictor though? like do they usually have this tool?
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Dec 13, 2019 00:16
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Jesus christ... Stay safe UK (rip) goons
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Dec 13, 2019 00:16
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We need a totally new strategy
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Dec 13, 2019 00:16
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Exit poll suggesting Hartlepool and loving Sedgefield will go Tory. 6-7k majorities there. The loving hologram that is David Morris of Morecambe and Lunesdale is at 99% to keep his seat. This is a disaster unless it's the worst exit poll in history several times over. The only silver lining is that my MP, Cat Smith of Lancaster and Fleetwood, is predicted to hold, with the barely-existent Tory campaign only given an 11% chance.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:16
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I had a feeling this would happen. This is gonna suck.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:16
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Lurker here, love and hugs to everyone in the thread. We will come back from this.
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Dec 13, 2019 00:16
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