UKMT General Elexmas 2019 - casually eating surstromming

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Apraxin: Feb 22, 2006; General-Admiral

Chuka Umana posted:

Good morning,

It does kind of feel like if only we'd been able to extend the campaigning period by a couple of weeks, Boris Johnson the Absolute Unit might have just keeled over of his own accord

# ? Dec 15, 2019 08:24

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# ? May 25, 2024 03:09

Snowman_McK: Jan 31, 2010

I'm real sorry for you UK goons. There's not much to say other than that. Good luck.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 08:45

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

in retrospect, if the thesis is now "it was Brexit wot lost it", then the answer should have been "push for a second referendum first to get the debilitating culture war out of the way, then the general election" rather than "general election first at any cost"

the focus on a GE first was premised on a lack of confidence in the non-Brexit package of policies to hold on to liberal-leaning votes once Stopping This Tory Brexit could not be trusted to keep them on-side, as it had in 2017... probably a justified fear, mind you, but one that looks a little quaint in retrospect of the largest defeat in X years

# ? Dec 15, 2019 08:57

Blasmeister: Jan 15, 2012; 2Time TRP Sack Race Champion

ronya posted:

in retrospect, if the thesis is now "it was Brexit wot lost it", then the answer should have been "push for a second referendum first to get the debilitating culture war out of the way, then the general election" rather than "general election first at any cost"

the focus on a GE first was premised on a lack of confidence in the non-Brexit package of policies to hold on to liberal-leaning votes once Stopping This Tory Brexit could not be trusted to keep them on-side, as it had in 2017... probably a justified fear, mind you, but one that looks a little quaint in retrospect of the largest defeat in X years

Big assumption that there were ever the numbers in parliament for a specific 2nd ref setup to get through all while Boris tries to collapse parliament or force his deal

# ? Dec 15, 2019 09:14

Lobster God: Nov 5, 2008

https://twitter.com/someotheralex/status/1205946545138552832?s=19

Hmmmm... interesting pivot.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 09:16

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Blasmeister posted:

Big assumption that there were ever the numbers in parliament for a specific 2nd ref setup to get through all while Boris tries to collapse parliament or force his deal

I suspect there would have been votes by October, the numerous Kyle-Wilson amendments had gradually gathered votes over time, and the one in April was very narrow (and pre-Euros)

There was another Kyle-Wilson amendment scheduled for the October MV4 confrontation too, but it got derailed by Letwin, which did succeed. The rest we know.

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1184933930870423552

ronya fucked around with this message at 09:25 on Dec 15, 2019

# ? Dec 15, 2019 09:22

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

to be clear, I don't think the argument was self-evident at the time, only plausible, but 1) the certainty in the GE-first strategy wasn't justified either 2) very much inconsistent with the posthoc analysis

# ? Dec 15, 2019 09:36

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

I see people are thinking of leaving the party if a centrist makes leader but that's absolutely the wrong decision - how are you going to vote a leftist in further down the line if you're not a member? How are you gonna stack the NEC with leftists if you're not a member?

# ? Dec 15, 2019 09:44

sebzilla: Mar 17, 2009; Kid's blasting everything in sight with that new-fangled musket.

Apraxin posted:

It does kind of feel like if only we'd been able to extend the campaigning period by a couple of weeks, Boris Johnson the Absolute Unit might have just keeled over of his own accord

Should have killed the queen.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 09:47

CGI Stardust: Nov 7, 2010; Brexit is but a door,
election time is but a window.

I'll be back

http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-working-class-politics-of-brexit.html

interesting article from Phil BC here; his reading is Labour has finished the transition to attempting to represent a different "working class" of immaterial production, rather than the old and declining proletariat

quote:

There is a very complex dynamic of decomposition and recomposition in play here. Basically, what landed on Labour yesterday was the culmination of the disintegration of the labour movement's community base.
...
there are three key factors in play on top of community fragmentation: the specific issues with old people and their voting behaviour, the stoking of ontological anxiety, and the disproportionate exclusion/absence of younger workers from the political process.
...
As I've argued before, Corbynism is the first mass expression in English and Welsh politics of a new working class. Its features are the immaterial character of its labour, that is it produces knowledge, services, care, relationships, and subjectivities/identities, and it depends on our social capacities and competencies as social beings - skills that can only be parasited off but not directly possessed by capital... Acknowledging immaterial labour is not the same as the old embourgeoisement thesis, nor is it about glamourising this kind of work. The typical socialised worker is your care home worker or call centre employee, not relatively privileged programmers or university lecturers. In fact, you are very likely to find millions of the former distributed right across the working class constituencies the Tories won but, for a number of reasons, are not as politically engaged as the huge concentrations you can find in the big cities. By virtue of their work they are much more likely to be socially liberal than older workers, which lends itself to a spontaneous liberal internationalism (and therefore greater receptivity about the EU) and, thanks to how the Tories have barred millions from the housing ladder and frustrate attempts at building stable lives, are largely anti-Conservative. Yes, anti-Tory but not spontaneously pro-Labour.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 09:49

goddamnedtwisto: Dec 31, 2004; If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you; Fun Shoe

ronya posted:

in the context of the larger arc of the north - even the actually-existing Soviet Union could not find any way to make labour-intensive heavy industry sustainable, and every industrial society, Western or communist alike, had one of two options:

1) viciously enforce wage restraint, and in employment terms, in large part deindustrialize anyway,

2) deindustrialize even harder when the will to keep shovelling hard currency into a bonfire runs out

short of winding back so that Anthony Crosland succeeds in tearing up Clause IV in the 1950s, continental tripartism (and German/Wassenaar-flavoured wage restraint) was never on the table for the UK as the Keynesian consensus retreated; it was always going to be a failed confrontation and all the jockeying did was to move the years around a bit. Neither could the UK see a left-wing Labour party coming to terms with neoliberalism on its own terms (a la the Netherlands Labour Party); FPTP in the UK meant that a party leadership struggle always came first. The arc of the SDP demonstrated the alternative... the UK would be governed by a New Right government across the 80s, but a UK Labour government then would have done much the same as a Labo(u)r government did in Australia (which has 2PP - Bob Hawke: wage restraint, floating the dollar) or New Zealand (then FPTP - Rogernomics: shock therapy, floating the dollar).

nothing ever guaranteed that the means of production are easy to command, even if one has the commanding heights - there's no guarantee of constancy, no immunity to material change. And there is no framework on the left that gives comfortable answers for a managed sunset of whole regions that, through no fault of their own, have been deprecated by history - industrial democracy, cooperatives, municipalism, etc all run into the twofold problems of denial on the part of those sunsetting and refusal on the part of those expected to pony up to fund transitional industries for someone else in another community altogether. No easy answers, just varying degrees of disappointment.

on the flip side, focusing on the problem for UK Labour today: the demographic scissors do slice both ways. It has declined amongst working-class voters, but gained amongst middle-class voters, especially the educated/professional/managerial segment; the target voter's sensitivity to being a little more taxed has fallen and that traditional terror has ebbed. This is opening a space that has not been available to the party for decades, ever since income taxes rose enough to be relevant to "working people".

Corbyn's Labour briefly flirted with a New Economics Foundation-flavoured charge toward redefining socialism as universal basic services rather than redistribution; this probably has promise (locally-funded basic public services free at the point of use are always de facto gated by where that point-of-use is located, i.e., local property prices - but any taxes raised are put to "people like us" i.e. local residents). Labour could embrace an identity as a party of the cities, and shifting the party to contesting the larger towns and writing off the north and semirural midlands as permanent losses. Given the depth of party's edge in the cities, any last gasp in the heartlands would be directed at pushing through proportional reform (aided, one supposes, by a Conservative desire to see its votes in Scotland pay off), after which flinging around one's weight in the southeast would be quite sufficient for a role in government for many years. Or at least that seems to be the direction suggested by Clark's tweet above.

In such a scenario, the future would be Preston indeed - "socialism" within spatial blocs of neighbourhoods, steep inequality between blocs, but across the the cities all under a Labour grip; very effective at dealing with "lived experience" of local poverty or precariat homelessness (that terror of the middle class of falling out of the middle class) even if is ineffectual at national inequality or pockets of entrenched dysfunction

... this might not be a stoppable vision, given the city skew of the party membership

While I unfortunately don't have enough time right now to give a full answer to it, I just wanted to say this is a good post - you've shown your thinking and tried to take the reader along with it, and not assumed they have read the same PPE textbooks as you.

Keep this up. You're probably one of the better-informed posters ITT (considerably more than I am, for one) and it's really important we have decent arguments from a centrist/technocratic perspective in the mix over the next few months if only for sparring reasons.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 09:51

Jeffrey Dahmer: May 21, 2017; by Pragmatica; Muldoon

https://twitter.com/EXTOMMYFANS/status/1205833223651176448

# ? Dec 15, 2019 10:40

Lady Demelza: Dec 29, 2009; Lipstick Apathy

I've been avoiding this thread/ the news in general so I'm just popping in to ask which charity I need to donate to on the goon seat prediction? I can't find the spreadsheet.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 10:40

Tarnop: Nov 25, 2013; Pull me out

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

I see people are thinking of leaving the party if a centrist makes leader but that's absolutely the wrong decision - how are you going to vote a leftist in further down the line if you're not a member? How are you gonna stack the NEC with leftists if you're not a member?

In order to remain a member after I became unable to work due to my health, I had to cut into my £16 per week food budget to pay my dues. If it comes to a choice between food and a Jess Philips election campaign, that's not a hard choice.

e: also, frankly, gently caress the Labour party for making people on loving disability pay for membership

Tarnop fucked around with this message at 10:47 on Dec 15, 2019

# ? Dec 15, 2019 10:43

Braggart: Nov 10, 2011; always thank the rock hider

Not So Fast posted:

Chuka Umana posted:

when is this coming back?

"Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair"

My name is Milibandias, Ed of Eds;
Look on my Workshopped Policies, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing besides Remain. Controls on immigration.
Round that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Of course that refers to Ed's persona as Labour leader. Real Ed's pretty alright IMO. He was the Ed of Eds, but now he's the Id of Ed.

(Yes I know Remain wasn't a thing at that time. He campaigned for Remain and it fit too well, dammit!

)

# ? Dec 15, 2019 10:43

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

Lady Demelza posted:

I've been avoiding this thread/ the news in general so I'm just popping in to ask which charity I need to donate to on the goon seat prediction? I can't find the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/101ShRNc4MC1YtBI2XE0ru8rda4aTlNBaIytsutD-QIc/edit#gid=1959274628

Azza's choice:

quote:

Find your local foodbank, and give them the money. If you want to be a huge legend, instead of just donating through their website, go in person and ask what they need to then go and give it to them.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 10:54

Braggart: Nov 10, 2011; always thank the rock hider

Trin Tragula posted:

The next leadership campaign: numerology and wild guesses

When there is a vacancy for leader, candidates require nominations from CLPs and affiliated organisations (which should be easy to get), plus 10% of the combined PLP and European PLP (about 210 strong, so the magic number is roughly 21 MPs and MEPs). In theory this leaves room for about 10 candidates to get in, but it's more likely to be no more than 6. Remember that the leader is elected by AV and splitting the vote becomes much less of a concern.

Two questions; with people like Laura Pidcock losing their seat, can a single continuity candidate still can get over the line? And how likely is it that two or more such candidates could do so?

The first thing to do is go back to that list from 2016 and look at who survives today. Stars indicate candidates who might be considered, or who might consider themselves, leaderbile. From Core Group:

Andy McDonald (Middlesbrough)
*Cat Smith (Lancaster & Fleetwood)
Diane Abbott (Hackney & Stoke Newington)
Grahame Morris (Easington)
Ian Lavery (Wansbeck)
Ian Mearns (Gateshead)
Imran Hussain (Bradford East)
Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North)
John McDonnell (Hayes & Harlington)
Jon Trickett (Hemsworth)
Kate Osamor (Edmonton)
*Rebecca Long-Bailey (Salford & Eccles)
*Richard Burgon (Leeds East)
*Clive Lewis (Norwich South)
Rachel Maskell (York Central)

That's 15. To that list I think we can safely add the following people from Core Group Plus:

Catherine West (Hornsey & Wood Green)
*Chi Onwurah (Newcastle upon Tyne Central)
*Dawn Butler (Brent Central)
Debbie Abrahams (Oldham East & Saddleworth)
Vicky Foxcroft (Lewisham, Deptford)
*Holly Lynch (Halifax)
*Kate Hollern (Blackburn)
*Louise Haigh (Sheffield, Heeley)
John Cryer (Leyton & Wanstead)

This makes 24, and should (should!) guarantee a continuity candidate a place on the ballot. To that list I think we can probably add the following MPs who were elected after the list was drawn up:

*Angela Rayner (Ashton-under-Lyne)
Marsha de Cordova (Battersea)
Mick Whitley (Birkenhead)
Peter Dowd (Bootle)
Naz Shah (Bradford West)
Darren Jones (Bristol North West)
Sarah Jones (Croydon Central)
Bambos Charalambous (Enfield, Southgate)
*Dan Carden (Liverpool, Walton)
Afzal Khan (Manchester, Gorton)
Nadia Whitomme (Nottingham East)
Alex Davies-Jones (Pontypridd)
Apsana Begum (Poplar & Limehouse)
Stephen Morgan (Portsmouth South)
Olivia Blake (Sheffield, Hallam)
Matt Western (Warwick & Leamington)
Mike Amesbury (Weaver Vale)
Tracy Brabin (Batley & Spen)
Preet Gill (Birmingham, Edgbaston)
Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Brighton, Kemptown)
Alex Sobel (Leeds North West)
Alex Norris (Nottingham North)
Anneliese Dodds (Oxford East)
Alex Pollard (Plymouth Sutton & Devonport)

Which leaves us with a total of 48. We can probably add a few from the new intake and delete a few from the above, whose precise positioning I've not been able to detect after 15 seconds with their Wikipedia entry.

But still, this is an absolutely unrecognisable position from having to borrow nominations for Jeremy from the likes of Margaret Beckett. There seems to be clear room to put two candidates from the left of the party on the ballot. This could be a Good Thing; everyone else would be unable to focus fire on the left in exactly the way that didn't happen in 2015 until it was far too late, and it would allow for some debate about what exactly socialism for 2025 should look like. On the other hand, we all love a good split, and there's more than enough room there for a nasty and lingering split, perhaps along that dividing line of urban vs small towns.

As to who might go in for it, nobody knows. If you ask me there is absolutely no excuse to not have a woman in 2020. The strongest potential male candidate (from the left) is probably Clive Lewis. Don't trust Emily Thornberry, she came into the party as a Blairite, she's easily painted as an urban elite, and I wouldn't be surprised if she came at this from the angle of "I can unite all sides of the party". Using the superficial grounds we have to judge people by at the moment, Cat Smith seems in a very strong position; like Rebecca Long-Bailey or Angela Rayner she's been in the shadow cabinet a long time and has had a chance to put herself about a bit, but Smith has Lancaster & Fleetwood while Long-Bailey and Rayner have urban seats in Greater Manchester. If "well, we need to appeal to Workington Man now" gains traction, Smith seems in the best position to capitalise (even if she is from Barrow and not Workington) from the left. You may well see a dark-horse new-broom run from the likes of Kate Hollern (Blackburn) or Holly Lynch (Halifax), who supported Owen Smith in 2016 but were then welcomed back into the Shadow Cabinet later.

There's probably going to be a lot of sharp elbows out in the next few months. This leadership contest is going to be far more like 2010 than any other in living memory, coming off the back of a gut-punching end-of-an-era defeat, with no obvious successor and a lot of different ways it could go. Force me at gunpoint to name 5 people to be on the ballot and I'll give you Keir Starmer, Jess Phillips, Thornberry, Long-Bailey, and Rayner, with Rayner as a very modest favourite. But gently caress knows.

edit: as I post this, there's vivid rumours of Long-Bailey for leader and Burgon for deputy swirling round Twitter

Bolding of one sentence is mine.

Reminder that we've had a thoughtful effortpost on the next Labour leader. I understand the concerns from posters, and naturally the Labour Right see this as their Next Big Opportunity, but I don't think the shower that brought us every previous failed coup on Corbyn are going to magically be better at politics this time. If anything I think their constant whining and failure and refusal to do any introspection has destroyed their chances to take advantage now. Besides, a bunch of them purged themselves prior to the election. Who do they even have left to unite under? The membership is solid Left and vastly larger than it was before Corbyn. The NEC is markedly different in composition. This is our party now.

Don't be complacent, sure. Guard against attempts to subvert the party back towards Blairism, of course. But this is a last gasp from people who already lost and don't know how to win.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:02

justcola: May 22, 2004; La-Li-Lu-Le-Lo

Lady Demelza posted:

I've been avoiding this thread/ the news in general so I'm just popping in to ask which charity I need to donate to on the goon seat prediction? I can't find the spreadsheet.

Was it Mermaids? https://www.mermaidsuk.org.uk/ (I didn't look at the sheet)

The 20's will be an interesting decade I think. Global recession round the corner, the rise of automation, Tory Brexit, climate change and mass migration, other countries becoming more powerful, the restart of space exploration, the decline of the anglosphere and challenges faced in antibiotic resistant diseases and more highly concentrated populations risking pandemics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzhPzHhnFl0

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:04

bionic vapour boy: Feb 13, 2012; Impervious to fun.

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

I see people are thinking of leaving the party if a centrist makes leader but that's absolutely the wrong decision - how are you going to vote a leftist in further down the line if you're not a member? How are you gonna stack the NEC with leftists if you're not a member?

I guess the question here is whether or not you consider electoral politics to still be worth it if we get a centrist (and in Jess Philips' case, a loving TERF) at the lead.

I dunno, it's hard to say. I wanna do what I can within Labour but if the tide's against me I'm out; if the leadership goes blairite again we'd be fighting a war on two fronts if we're trying to build alternative structures while also pulling Labour back to the left.

bionic vapour boy fucked around with this message at 11:09 on Dec 15, 2019

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:07

Bacon Terrorist: May 7, 2010; to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022

Supposedly Boris's first priorities are to redraw constituency boundaries to 600 and abolish the fixed term parliament act (rather than you know, getting Brexit done) how hosed does that leave us?

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:12

RottenK: Feb 17, 2011; Sexy bad choices

FAILED NOJOE

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

I see people are thinking of leaving the party if a centrist makes leader but that's absolutely the wrong decision - how are you going to vote a leftist in further down the line if you're not a member? How are you gonna stack the NEC with leftists if you're not a member?

if a centrist gets anywhere near power they will rewrite the rules and make it impossible for the membership to affect anything, at that point Labour as a force for good is 100% dead and there's literally no reason to stay as a member

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:12

Venomous: Nov 7, 2011

Bacon Terrorist posted:

Supposedly Boris's first priorities are to redraw constituency boundaries to 600 and abolish the fixed term parliament act (rather than you know, getting Brexit done) how hosed does that leave us?

hosed if you think national electoralism is the be-all and end-all of socialist electoralism. Strongly feeling that localism is the way forward in England, building up local resources from square one.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:21

Braggart: Nov 10, 2011; always thank the rock hider

RottenK posted:

if a centrist gets anywhere near power they will rewrite the rules and make it impossible for the membership to affect anything, at that point Labour as a force for good is 100% dead and there's literally no reason to stay as a member

Yes but we can stop them getting into the position to do that. Being aware of that danger is good, because it means we can better guard against it. But don't fall to despair. We can prevent it. We're in control of the party.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:22

waffle: May 12, 2001; HEH

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

I see people are thinking of leaving the party if a centrist makes leader but that's absolutely the wrong decision - how are you going to vote a leftist in further down the line if you're not a member? How are you gonna stack the NEC with leftists if you're not a member?

Jess Phillips is a special case to me. She's so obviously self-serving and was so strongly anti-Corbyn the whole time that it'd be very hard for me to support a party led by her. I guess I'd stay in the party to keep voting against her but no way I'd go campaigning or anything like that. The other centrists being floated (Starmer, Thornberry, even Cooper to a degree) would have a huge problem galvanizing youth/volunteers like Corbyn did, but I personally at least would be able to hold my tongue and go on the doorstep for them.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:22

Bacon Terrorist: May 7, 2010; to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022

Venomous posted:

hosed if you think national electoralism is the be-all and end-all of socialist electoralism. Strongly feeling that localism is the way forward in England, building up local resources from square one.

I hope you're right, though might a slow burn. Saw some (admittedly rookie) local Labour candidates get soundly beat by out of town tories on Thursday. But as you say it was dominated by a single issue and a polarising leader etc.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:26

Jel Shaker: Apr 19, 2003

Bacon Terrorist posted:

Supposedly Boris's first priorities are to redraw constituency boundaries to 600 and abolish the fixed term parliament act (rather than you know, getting Brexit done) how hosed does that leave us?

It�s all a bit up in the air - the fixed term parliament act was a poo poo show and clearly hosed the country for months with paralysis

However the constituency thing was reported to both help and hurt both the tories and labour depending on who you ask , if we get some hilarious gerrymandering like the USA though that�s a problem

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:34

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

waffle posted:

The other centrists being floated (Starmer, Thornberry, even Cooper to a degree) would have a huge problem galvanizing youth/volunteers like Corbyn did, but I personally at least would be able to hold my tongue and go on the doorstep for them.

Remember to put the poo poo in the bag before you light it.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:34

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

waffle posted:

Jess Phillips is a special case to me. She's so obviously self-serving and was so strongly anti-Corbyn the whole time that it'd be very hard for me to support a party led by her. I guess I'd stay in the party to keep voting against her but no way I'd go campaigning or anything like that. The other centrists being floated (Starmer, Thornberry, even Cooper to a degree) would have a huge problem galvanizing youth/volunteers like Corbyn did, but I personally at least would be able to hold my tongue and go on the doorstep for them.

The manifesto is far more important than the leadership and if we have the same hard-left manifesto at the next election i would absolutely be out there giving it my best, even if it was bloody Blair leading the party to be honest

I'm not gonna abandon vulnerable people just because the person at the top didn't like Corbyn

Now if the manifesto turns centrist, that's another story

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:40

Oh dear me: Aug 14, 2012; I have burned numerous saucepans, sometimes right through the metal

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

I see people are thinking of leaving the party if a centrist makes leader but that's absolutely the wrong decision - how are you going to vote a leftist in further down the line if you're not a member? How are you gonna stack the NEC with leftists if you're not a member?

Agreed. Of course this stops being an argument if that leader manages to get the rules rewritten to exclude members from power, by giving the PLP more power in the leadership election or reducing member influence on the NEC or NEC power vs the PLP. That's when I'll leave, but let's not throw in the towel before then.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:46

Lady Demelza: Dec 29, 2009; Lipstick Apathy

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/101ShRNc4MC1YtBI2XE0ru8rda4aTlNBaIytsutD-QIc/edit#gid=1959274628

Azza's choice:

Thanks - I'll chuck an extra fiver's worth of goodies their way before they close for Christmas.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:50

jaete: Jun 21, 2009; Nap Ghost

kustomkarkommando posted:

I mean the usual argument against list-PR in the UK is the importance of the constituency link between elected representatives and constituents - thats why no one really propose classical list-PR and the usual recommendations are STV or a variant of MMP (AV with MMP being the recommendation of the Jenkins commission back when we where actually thinking about maybe changing the voting system)

Yep this is a good point. I don't have much experience in how the whole "local MP" thing works here, but back in Finland the districts are like half a million people each (between 180k and 1 M people, between 7 and 35 representatives (out of 200) each). There's not much "locality" there that's for sure

# ? Dec 15, 2019 11:56

nurmie: Dec 8, 2019

Say centrist/Blair/CUKTIG sleeper cell/Blue fash wing wins and pushes Labour away from the left. Would there be a potential for a new, socdem/demsoc left party then? Or would it just spread the support thin and it's better for Labour to remain """"broad-church""""? What does UKMT think?

# ? Dec 15, 2019 12:00

Purple Prince: Aug 20, 2011

RockyB posted:

Let's have some actual political analysis from juuuust before the election

http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/punishmentdemocracy/

This is a Good Article describing Bad Things.

Because this describes fascism perfectly.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 12:02

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

nurmie posted:

Say centrist/Blair/CUKTIG sleeper cell/Blue fash wing wins and pushes Labour away from the left. Would there be a potential for a new, socdem/demsoc left party then? Or would it just spread the support thin and it's better for Labour to remain """"broad-church""""? What does UKMT think?

Under FPTP it would just gift the Tories more wins by splitting the vote. There's no solution to be found in new parties, the only one is keeping Labour left.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 12:03

Not So Fast: Dec 27, 2007

Splitting the party wouldn't work. I think the only solution is to stay and keep pushing the argument that the problem was Brexit, not the manifesto at large.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 12:05

RottenK: Feb 17, 2011; Sexy bad choices

FAILED NOJOE

nurmie posted:

Say centrist/Blair/CUKTIG sleeper cell/Blue fash wing wins and pushes Labour away from the left. Would there be a potential for a new, socdem/demsoc left party then? Or would it just spread the support thin and it's better for Labour to remain """"broad-church""""? What does UKMT think?

if right wing takes control of Labour any continued support for the party might as well be support for the tories. leave, burn the party down on your way out if you can, then start over without blair's parasites

# ? Dec 15, 2019 12:07

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

nurmie posted:

Say centrist/Blair/CUKTIG sleeper cell/Blue fash wing wins and pushes Labour away from the left. Would there be a potential for a new, socdem/demsoc left party then? Or would it just spread the support thin and it's better for Labour to remain """"broad-church""""? What does UKMT think?

No, The end result would be exactly like CUKTIG, annihilation.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 12:07

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

https://twitter.com/alanmaddison20/status/1205842110932496384?s=19

# ? Dec 15, 2019 12:08

HJB: Feb 16, 2011; I can't get enough of are Dan

nurmie posted:

Say centrist/Blair/CUKTIG sleeper cell/Blue fash wing wins and pushes Labour away from the left. Would there be a potential for a new, socdem/demsoc left party then? Or would it just spread the support thin and it's better for Labour to remain """"broad-church""""? What does UKMT think?

# ? Dec 15, 2019 12:08

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# ? May 25, 2024 03:09

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

interesting throughout:

https://twitter.com/paulhilder/status/1205914328953696257

quote:

[describing the private focus grouping]

Dominic Cummings�s �Get Brexit Done� was an extraordinarily effective campaign message for this election. While arguably not as game-changing as �Take Back Control�, we found it resonating with a large majority of the public at large, and with the overwhelming majority of all parts of the voter coalition the Tories needed to assemble - even many Conservative and Labour Remainers. The British public are simply sick of the Brexit tug-of-war, and want to move on to other pressing issues. The irony is, of course, that Brexit is far from over and done with. We will see whether this ends up damaging Johnson in the months and years to come. The Conservatives� attack lines were also highly effective. The �cost of Corbyn� attacks (�The cost of Corbyn will hit you in the pocket�) cut through well, as did the lines that �the country can�t afford the promises in Labour�s manifesto�, and that �a hung Parliament just means more dither and delay�.

Labour had many lines in this campaign. Their initial headline message, �It�s Time For Real Change�, tested brilliantly. It communicated the radicalism of the manifesto positively, connected with the strong desires for change across all voter tribes, and made clear the contrast with the Tories� offer of �more of the same�. However, it was used too infrequently and inconsistently in the campaign. Headquarters started using �On Your Side� instead after they belatedly realised the threat to the Labour Leave group; but this message was too inert to be an effective counter to �Get Brexit Done�.

What proved much more successful for Labour was the counter-attack on the NHS. Rather than bland familiar messages about Labour being �the party of the NHS� or saving the NHS, the specific threat of US-style privatisation of the health service from a post-Brexit Trump trade deal was communicated vividly and relentlessly, through leaked documents, viral videos and a swarm of movement communications. The core values statement that �Our NHS is not for sale� was so powerful that Boris Johnson started trying to reclaim it. But �Boris Johnson will sell our NHS to Donald Trump� and similar messages gained very broad and rapid agreement, as did �you can�t trust the Tories with the NHS� and �I�m worried my local hospital can�t cope�. This attack effectively disrupted the Brexit-Boris-NHS nexus of associations created through the �We send �350 million a week to the EU, let�s spend it on our NHS instead� message repeated relentlessly by Vote Leave in the 2016 referendum. We believe the NHS attack line was a major factor in Labour�s resurgence of support among its 2017 Leave voters and other key groups. Our private polling found the NHS rose in importance through the campaign, becoming a bigger issue even than Brexit among undecided voters.

But it was all too little, too late. Negative messages about Jeremy Corbyn proved overwhelmingly strong, in particular among Labour Leave and Conservative Remain voters. Regardless of the origins of these negative perceptions, and despite the party�s position strengthening through a strong campaign and massive grassroots mobilisation, this was the fatal factor in the end for Labour�s prospects in this election. While statements like �We need a new government to deliver real change� had a slight edge over �We need to re-elect the current government to get Brexit done�, more people were more worried about Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister than about a Boris Johnson majority and a hard Tory Brexit.

# ? Dec 15, 2019 12:11

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT General Elexmas 2019 - casually eating surstromming

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