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thespaceinvader posted:The Tories have a majority OP, the rest is kind of irrelevant. Eh the makeup of the PLP is very relevant to who gets nominated for leadership. And the type of tory these new MPs are will be relevant to what happens next.
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Dec 15, 2019 19:50
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Labour can poo poo the bed and still get 200 seats
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Dec 15, 2019 19:53
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RockyB posted:Sooner the better IMO, at least then people won't be forced to pay the TV licence just to avoid prosecution. Just lol if you think they won't keep the TV licence, and just make it something you have to have to own a TV.
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Dec 15, 2019 19:54
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Well I mean he's already https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/15/boris-johnson-set-decriminalise-not-paying-bbc-licence-fee-11909878/ Be interesting to see just how far they can go, given the royal charter currently takes us up to 2027. Oh and in other news https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/15/british-muslims-start-leaving-uk-boris-johnson-wins-election-11911078/ quote:However, after Mr Johnson’s Conservatives won a landslide in the election on December 12, Manzoor Ali, who runs the Barakah Food Aid charity in Greater Manchester, said that his family have given him their blessing to look for a place that would be safe and secure for them. Mr Ali told Metro.co.uk: ‘My charity has been going on for 10 years, we’ve helped people from all walks of life, including former soldiers and white working class English people. Yup, all the Jews will leave the country if Corbyn gets in. Ignore everyone else, or the vile racist shite currently spewing from the mouths of all the gloating 'winners'. Looking forward to that surge in hate crime statistics. E: https://twitter.com/uncooljerk/status/1206238032464093185 Please eat well and crawl back out of the bottle goons. You've got work tomorrow. RockyB fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Dec 15, 2019 |
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Dec 15, 2019 20:03
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I know Tory apocalypse but hey we had a very interesting in Northern Ireland which I think is worth talking about as we are now entering the DEFINITELY LAST TIME TO NEGOTIATE A GOVERNMENT I SWEAR talks with talk of an election if there is no agreement by January. Considering the major talking point elsewhere at the minute is "More Nationalist MPs than Unionist" I think its worth looking at the changes in actual voting numbers here - Simple percentage swings are often a bit simplistic as its often a game of GOTV and we've seen seismic voting shifts in recent years in part due to big leaps in voter participation in the 2017 Assembly Election at the start of the oopsie no government crisis. So looking at total votes cast since 2001 it looks like this:  So while actual voter engagement seems to have been kept at 2017 levels, which where extremely high comparative to the years post agreement, the DUP and SF have seen their cumulative votes drop significantly while Alliance has seen an explosive gain in voters that has propelled them to third party status overnight. Some of this has been hand waved away as tactical voting and there are some distortions caused by that to be sure - South Belfast for example was won by the DUP almost by accident in 2017 with a mere 30% of the vote and a voting pact there to unseat them in this election saw the SDLP's vote increase by 16k votes. But drilling into the vote in the seats won by the parties in the last election do show some rather significant trends:  In the DUPs traditional safe seats, excluding Belfast South because again this was almost a fluke win and practically impossible to defend for them, their vote dropped by about ~36k (18% of their 2017 votes) while Alliances vote increased by ~39k, that's 86% of their total in 2017. While some of this could be attributed to tactical vote switching by Nationalists in DUP constituencies the combined SF/SDLP vote drop is only about ~14k (and Sinn Fein picked up an extra 4000 votes in North Belfast offsetting dips elsewhere). The DUP are still sitting on some of their highest every vote numbers since the 2015 election that saw them decimate the UUP in parliament though but come assembly time minor parties like the extreme TUV and Independent Unionist candidates have a tendency to peel back voters - there is a significant and definite slip towards Alliance within their heartland seats and if an Assembly election where run on these figures its likely Alliance would make pretty big gains within the Assembly. Meanwhile in SF's seats:  Though they picked up an MP in Belfast North the outlook for SF in their safer seats with no immediate Unionist contest is considerably less rosy. The explosive vote gain they leveraged in 2017 from the collapse of the Executive appears to be slipping away from them. Of course in this election they lost their 2017 gain of Foyle to the SDLP losing about ~9k votes in the process but that only accounts for about a quarter of lost votes throughout their seats with only a strong turnout. The Alliance jump here is still significant if not considerably smaller, not a surprise really, but might make them competitive for an Assembly seat in some unlikely places (West Tyrone seems like a good shout). Though this election was overwhelmingly fought on Brexit terms seems like a strong indicator that SF may be feeling the bite of voters over the continued absence of an Executive. Some pretty strong indicators that SF and the DUP may hastily attempt to come to an agreement to avoid a new round of Assembly elections I think.
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Dec 15, 2019 20:07
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Guavanaut posted:The problem with the left is when it does lawnorder authoritarianism it can sometimes do it so 'well' that everything gets poo poo for everyone until even the Tories are winning points by pointing out how harsh they're being. loving this. Remember when David Davis was the champion of civil liberties and freedom by going up against ID cards and poo poo? The noughts were loving wild.
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Dec 15, 2019 20:15
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Azza Bamboo posted:I love the idea of going down swinging. Something you miss out in British schools that much of the rest of the world gets, is they story of how, "after 100s of years of brutal oppression (usually by the British) we finally won our freedom." Thing is, that story even works in Britain. The NHS, universal sufferage, the weekend and a hundred other good things weren't won without a fight. It loving sucks to lose a battle, and it's a good time to re-evaluate strategy. I think lots of people here have made good points about how the failings of this campaign and how the Labour party should do more than show up at elections and ask for our vote. We learn from our mistakes and do better next time, until we win.
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Dec 15, 2019 20:39
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thespaceinvader posted:I admire your optimism that they won't simply blame Labour for it and succeed becuase our press is a monumentally corrupt horror show. What also needs to happen is a unified front. This is true whether you prefer electoralism, direct action or violent revolution. That means either: 1) Labour becomes a broad enough party to bring back the liberals, essentially absorbing the Greens and LDs; or 2) Labour continues to reject them but enters a formal electoral pact with the SNP, Greens and the LDs. Farage just gave an object lesson in how powerful this can be. Voluntary tactical voting is weak; forced tactical voting is very strong. The voters who went Tory aren’t coming back soon. They want empire 2.0 and - thankfully - nobody here does.
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Dec 15, 2019 20:41
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Beefeater1980 posted:What also needs to happen is a unified front. This is true whether you prefer electoralism, direct action or violent revolution. That means either: 1) Remember 2015? Didn't work that well. 2) Remember 2010? The Lib Dems are Orange Tories, they will not enter an electoral pact with a left wing Labour party.
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Dec 15, 2019 20:59
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Paul Mason posted a thing, I think there's some really interesting insights in here (caveated that he's writing for a particular audience, I don't think sabotage by the 'right wing' of the party is a viable argument for this election): https://www.paulmason.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/After-Corbynism-v1.2.pdf This feels like key analysis; quote:Despite strong lobbying from CLPs, the NEC on 29 April voted against the call for a second referendum on any deal. Glance back at Figure 1 (above) to understand how that vote prepared us for catastrophe. The result was an immediate slump in Labour's polling position, the eventual loss of half of Labour’s European Parliamentary seats and our score of 14% in the elections of 23 May. Then, on 28 May, under CLP pressure, Corbyn unilaterally flipped over to the “second referendum on any deal” position. But with Unite, the CWU and their allies actively resisting this, it took until the party conference for branch delegates to win the commitment to a second referendum. Even then it came at the cost of losing any clear commitment to Remain, and with Corbyn himself adopting a reputation-destroying position of neutrality. Those who are now saying "centrist Remainers forced Corbyn into the second
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Dec 15, 2019 21:01
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fuckin yikes https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1180197163265134592
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Dec 15, 2019 21:03
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lol at labour leadership candidates scrambling to be Blair 2.0 I thought Rayner was a good egg though? Bit confused
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Dec 15, 2019 21:05
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Trades posted:Thinking on fairness, I know it’s like a day late but re slogans what about ‘Fair work for fair pay’. Traditional, ties to the moral messaging that worked well down south and implicitly resists the handouts and scroungers counter narratives. Or does that sound too union? That's a good one imo. Maybe not as the "only" slogan but as someone said, if it was like a collection of max five or something. I dunno I think proper, ugh, marketing is needed, simplify the message, etc marktheando posted:And the type of tory these new MPs are will be relevant to what happens next. literally every one of them is a brexit true believer and johnson loyalist
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Dec 15, 2019 21:07
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That's from october.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:08
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With Boris offering huge investments in the North, is the Conservative party "brand new customers only?"
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Dec 15, 2019 21:10
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OwlFancier posted:That's from october. Like I'm going to understand the flow of time under this blanket of yeast pee
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Dec 15, 2019 21:11
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OwlFancier posted:That's from october. Wow I'm a fuckin rear end, I saw it linked on my TL by someone criticising it and assumed it was recent.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:11
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I mean yes it is still slightly iffy that she's cosying up to BAE but labour unfortunately does have a military union component, which is also a major component of the democratic support for trident among the party base.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:13
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OwlFancier posted:I mean yes it is still slightly iffy that she's cosying up to BAE but labour unfortunately does have a military union component, which is also a major component of the democratic support for trident among the party base. Biiiiiiiiiig union support for arms, military infrastructure investment and dirty industries. Brings the jobs. Difficult to square with socialist pacifism in the Fenner Brockway/Corbyn tradition, so usually conveniently ignored. The Bevan/Big Len school has no issue with it.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:21
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I had some...strange dreams about Priti Patel last night that have been bothering me all day. Basically I'm really turned on by her being a national authority figure. I find her so motherly yet so attractive, like I just want her to dominate me like she'll dominate British society.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:24
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Horny is definitely prohibited. Or at least I propose the establishment of a horny ceasefire or DMZ if that's the level of escalation we're going to. Perhaps a START to try and reduce the proliferation of world destroying horniness.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:25
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Chuka Umana posted:I had some...strange dreams about Priti Patel last night that have been bothering me all day. Basically I'm really turned on by her being a national authority figure. I find her so motherly yet so attractive, like I just want her to dominate me like she'll dominate British society. you've been told before about role playing your username
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Dec 15, 2019 21:27
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Guavanaut posted:Does he have the ability to stop a border poll in NI? I don't think Boris gives a poo poo about breaking the law tbh :/
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Dec 15, 2019 21:28
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I have a terrible idea that might just work. Create an Edstone now with Boris' policies on them and leave it on display somewhere so that it's there set in stone to compare his actual outcomes with.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:31
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I think left wing electoralism is necessarily reactive, taking advantage of your enemy's misfortune or weakness, because we can't set the media agenda other than through that. So I don't think we can realistically come up with the agenda for the next election until much closer to the time. The point right now is trying to stop the party going right or center, and to spread support for socialist ideas where we can, because there's no slogan or one weird trick right now that's gonna win the next one.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:37
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Chuka Umana posted:I had some...strange dreams about Priti Patel last night that have been bothering me all day. Basically I'm really turned on by her being a national authority figure. I find her so motherly yet so attractive, like I just want her to dominate me like she'll dominate British society. of all the lovely things you've posted recently this is definitely the worst
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Dec 15, 2019 21:39
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Azza Bamboo posted:I have a terrible idea that might just work. My name is Bozzymandias, World King; Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair! For they are poo poo, and always were My Garden Bridge, overbudget just a smidge My Brexit Deal, just unreal My racist words, no more than turds Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal Prick, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away. lol I got to do 2 variants of the same joke today  Braggart posted:My name is Milibandias, Ed of Eds;
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Dec 15, 2019 21:42
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So what should have Labour done differently?
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Dec 15, 2019 21:42
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Probably focused more of the manifesto specifically on how it was going to help the northern areas left behind by blair and the tories and spend more money and time promoting it here, also hope that brexit wasn't still enough to scupper them.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:45
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punk rebel ecks posted:So what should have Labour done differently? Honestly everything went as well as the media and society will allow, I think I don't think anything would have changed I think society needs a couple more decades of progress before a real left wing government happens. Here's hoping we don't all die of climate crisis before that
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Dec 15, 2019 21:45
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punk rebel ecks posted:So what should have Labour done differently? Yeah the question to ask is "Was there actually a different path that would have gave Labour victory" and the more I think about it, the answer is no.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:46
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punk rebel ecks posted:So what should have Labour done differently? Two years ago: put Tessa's deal through. Four years ago: start community action that puts people into contact with the Labour party outside of elections. Or should I say putting the Labour party into contact with the people so we can actually have an ear to the real world. Twenty seven years ago: Destroy Kinnock and Blair.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:49
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Ugh, I'm chatting with my remainworms friend, who's wishing he'd voted for Andy Burnham back in 2015.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:50
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Azza Bamboo posted:Two years ago: put Tessa's deal through.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:53
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punk rebel ecks posted:So what should have Labour done differently? I think that Brexit is a political Singularity. It seems to foul up the calculus for any political entity that has actual principles other than "rape, pillage, and no brown folk."
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Dec 15, 2019 21:55
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punk rebel ecks posted:So what should have Labour done differently? It pains me to say, but maybe campaigned more on Brexit? Don't think hard remain or leave was necessary, their actual position might have been ok if they had been crystal clear on it months ago and been hammering it consistently.
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Dec 15, 2019 22:03
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An accurate mappe of Brits and Tans, plesynge nawther.
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Dec 15, 2019 22:05
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Bobstar posted:Ugh, I'm chatting with my remainworms friend, who's wishing he'd voted for Andy Burnham back in 2015. We would have just had this result, but in 2017 (and possibly worse) Get him to check the SPD in Germany for what a centre-left party looks like when they double down on lovely neoliberalism (spoilers: they are nearly dead)
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Dec 15, 2019 22:05
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Beefeater1980 posted:The voters who went Tory aren’t coming back soon. They want empire 2.0 and - thankfully - nobody here does. This isn't true I think - you look at quotes out of the ex-industrial areas that flipped Tory and they are very much lending their votes to Boris to get Brexit done and for some kind of change. If that doesn't happen they have no reason to stay loyal. Doesn't necessarily mean they will stay Tory (the shadow of the Brexit/Reform/nationalist parties loom large) but a lot of these places were only won by a thin margin and it would seem like the Tory vote won't go up much from where it is currently.
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Dec 15, 2019 22:10
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If I was going to suggest a theme for the next labour platform then it should probably focus on the "left behind", places, people, who have been ignored by all governments. Because even if you yourself aren't doing badly, chances are you live somewhere that has been. Come up with some good plans to rebuild towns and cities, fix housing, schools, public spaces, the environment. Because labour needs to win back those northern seats. It can't retake scotland and I don't think there's much more progress to be made in the cities. It's also a good chance to really disown blair, or at least his politics, because you need to get out the idea that we aren't all the same. With the impending loss of EU subsidies there's probably also an agricultural policy you could throw in there, local subsidy for local supply, with unneeded land being bought and reforested. OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Dec 15, 2019 |
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Dec 15, 2019 22:12
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