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there is at least some evidence that beijing was expecting a landslide of their own in the elections
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Nov 26, 2019 14:25
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Known Lecher posted:I wouldn't be so quick to give the CCP credit for playing 4-dimensional intergalactic chess over the elections when, based on how off-guard and flat-footed the reaction was, it seems they were genuinely convinced that the pro-Beijing side was going to win (or at least not lose nearly as badly as they did). They may have wanted to election to go forward simply because they were expecting a much better result than they got. Ultimately, how much did actually change with this election? It is a "strong moral" victory but pro-democratic candidates have had good elections in the past and it never led to a meaningful reform of electoral system. Maybe China/CCP has learned from the West that it is "better to let election that won't change anything" happen and just use other conduits of power to keep their situation under their control. Even if they miscalculated their chances, it is another question if they will actually start compromising their core goals for the pro-democratic movement. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Nov 26, 2019 |
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Nov 26, 2019 14:29
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Ardennes posted:
It's still kind of important until RMB dual track system go away/RMB digital currency become formalized, which will happen in the next...10+ years. Also, the single biggest group of people who don't know HK is not that important are the Hong Kongers. well you edited away your 2nd paragraph but I am quoting it anyway.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:38
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whatever7 posted:It's still kind of important until RMB dual track system go away/RMB digital currency become formalized, which will happen in the next...10+ years. I thought it wasn't relevant to the discussion at hand, but either way, it shows not just a disconnection between Beijing and the HK population (there is one) but also the HK population and the broader situation at hand especially in Mainland China. The PRC isn't the same country it was in 1997, and the useful of Hong Kong has diminished as the Chinese economy has grown. Arguably, HK is still a useful financial hub but I don't know if it is irreplacable considering the mainland itself is the main draw for investment and it is hard to see Beijing losing complete control over the situtation. Also, I suspect at least that China isn't really that concerned about the day in and day out politics of HK or Carrier Lam but if the situation gets out of control. At the end of the day, despite losing local elections, 42% of the population voted for pro-Beijing canidates...and thats probably still enough of Beijing. Beijing doesn't need HK population to like them...but just be split enough that outright insurrection isn't possible. It is why it is both a moral victory for the pro-democracy camp that won't effect the balance of power.
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Nov 26, 2019 15:08
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Let me just say this. China gains some of my respect by not subverting the voting process with intimidation. 70% turnout is good for any future democracy. Drill.tweet
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Nov 26, 2019 15:17
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This high turnout will be great for the half-assed democracy we have for another year or two before we’re taken over by force!
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Nov 26, 2019 19:48
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It's all about next years LegCo elections in September, which is stacked towards the pro-Beijing parties anyway. It'll be interesting to see what changes then
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Nov 27, 2019 02:39
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Things not looking good
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Nov 27, 2019 18:01
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coffeetable posted:there is at least some evidence that beijing was expecting a landslide of their own in the elections Well, that sounds disturbingly Stalinist. This just raises more questions for me. I've wondered for some time just how much China's leadership believes their own spin. Now I gotta ask if they're only getting the news that they want to hear. The quality of life can crash and burn real quickly if your government is only getting good news.
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Nov 29, 2019 22:19
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Viola the Mad posted:Well, that sounds disturbingly Stalinist. Not like this is unique to China, the British Tories have been getting high on their own supply for a while now. E: Also kind of in the nature of ideology. Your first generation of leaders might half believe what they're saying, but a sizable proportion of the next generation of leaders is going to believe it fully. This is what leadership training programs are for.
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Nov 29, 2019 22:39
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Pretty much the same thinly sourced reporting you love and expect from the western media when it comes to their official enemies:quote:I spoke with editors and journalists, both foreign and Chinese, at China Daily, the flagship English-language newspaper of state media; at the English-language version of the nationalist tabloid Global Times; and at the People’s Daily—the CCP’s official newspaper. (My sources universally asked for anonymity.)
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Nov 29, 2019 23:15
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:Pretty much the same thinly sourced reporting you love and expect from the western media when it comes to their official enemies: The “official enemies” are precisely the people he mentions talking to, so I’m not sure what you’re objecting to. The author used to be an editor at an “enemy” publication himself, even!
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Nov 29, 2019 23:22
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Viola the Mad posted:The quality of life can crash and burn real quickly if your government is only getting good news. That's partly what the surveillance apparatus is for.
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Nov 29, 2019 23:28
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Silver2195 posted:The “official enemies” are precisely the people he mentions talking to, so I’m not sure what you’re objecting to. The author used to be an editor at an “enemy” publication himself, even! Palmer is an obsessive China watcher with negligible language ability, exactly the kind of the guy foreign policy rags will pay to stay at the mandarin oriental in beijing and cook up stories for their benefit.
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Nov 29, 2019 23:33
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I really should have drawn attention to this earlier, but the thread on Wang Huning's book is up. We've just gotten through a chapter on the Amish and the succeeding chapter will be on a proto-socialist community in Iowa. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3903914
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Nov 30, 2019 20:58
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Kassad posted:That's partly what the surveillance apparatus is for. Would you mind elaborating on this? I don't quite follow what you mean. Just to clarify, when I posted previously I didn't mean to imply that a decline in quality of life will lead to widespread resistance to the CCP. The news coming out of China just gets more and more Orwellian (this trend predates 2019), and I've started to wonder if Xi, like Mao, will get so drunk on his own bullshit that he embarks on his own catastrophic experiments on a national scale.
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Dec 3, 2019 04:16
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Viola the Mad posted:The news coming out of China just gets more and more Orwellian (this trend predates 2019), and I've started to wonder if Xi, like Mao, will get so drunk on his own bullshit that he embarks on his own catastrophic experiments on a national scale. This is already happening to a degree as far as foreign policy is concerned, as well as the CCP's reaction to the Hong Kong protests and the Xinjiang Genocide. The belt and road initiative, the "management" of Western China, relations with Hong Kong and Taiwan, and relations with the West and the US in particular all bear Xi's personal trademark and is a large contributing factor as to why China is seemingly unable to course correct despite all of the above being thus far disastrous under Xi. There is widespread speculation that it's one of the reasons for the spy defections and cable leaks that have happened from China over the past while.
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Dec 3, 2019 04:31
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Fojar38 posted:There is widespread speculation that it's one of the reasons for the spy defections and cable leaks that have happened from China over the past while. Australian secret police already figured out that the recent spy 'defection' was a scam: https://twitter.com/JKynge/status/1...ticle%2F3040190 Fojar38 posted:China is seemingly unable to course correct despite all of the above being thus far disastrous under Xi. On the other hand, Xi has been more popular with the rank and file people in China than the last few closet liberals that westerners trashed in the media anyway. Much like AMLO in Mexico or Morales in Bolivia, Xi has done more than any of the dengists in the past to correct the economic imbalance between urban and rural areas. For example, my grandparents pension now is larger than their salary was when they were working. I can see why that would be alarming to China watchers, who thought that letting princelings attend Harvard etc. in the 90s like the children of Eastern European kleptocrats would mean that 20 years later the country would be run by neoliberals just like in the US. What Americans didn't count on was that those guys were getting out of the politics game to make money in the private sector-- the country is still firmly under the control of people who have never left China or been exposed to western education. Of the politburo standing committee, literally zero members have an Ivy league degree and only 2-3 have credentials from institutions outside of China. I would also like to see why you think BRI is a disaster, given that most of the world seems incredibly receptive and even traditional US buddies like the UK want a piece of the pie.
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Dec 3, 2019 04:55
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:Xi has done more than any of the dengists in the past to correct the economic imbalance between urban and rural areas. By making them both destitute wastelands? Fair enough.
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Dec 3, 2019 05:13
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:I would also like to see why you think BRI is a disaster, given that most of the world seems incredibly receptive and even traditional US buddies like the UK want a piece of the pie. Boris of course would never lead the UK into a huge disaster.
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Dec 3, 2019 05:19
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Dec 3, 2019 06:03
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Viola the Mad posted:Well, that sounds disturbingly Stalinist. I asked an old acquaintance of mine who's a bureaucrat in HK and he said it wasn't as crazy an expectation as you'd think. quote:If you look at the election data, there is good reason for the pro-Beijing camp to believe that it will win the election.
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Dec 3, 2019 07:01
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Viola the Mad posted:Would you mind elaborating on this? I don't quite follow what you mean. It just seems like one obvious goal of widespread surveillance would be to have at least a rough idea of how many people are mad as hell and won't take it anymore. It's not just about enforcing compliance.
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Dec 3, 2019 07:06
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Charlz Guybon posted:I asked an old acquaintance of mine who's a bureaucrat in HK and he said it wasn't as crazy an expectation as you'd think. I'm a registered voter in Hong Kong and in the past I barely pay any attention to district council election, because the officials are basically neighborhood busybodies that deals with extremely localized issues like garbage disposals or busy traffics intersection in the two, three streets that each is responsible for. I voted this time because after 5 months of protests I'm pretty fed up with the tone deaf responses from the SAR government and lack of any political resolution. I didn't participate in the protests so for me voting is how I tell the government how I feel. Apparently I wasn't the only one that thought this way, because at 8:30 am Sunday, all the polling stations near my area have long lines of people queuing up to vote, averaging at least 45 minutes of wait time. Now this is quite phenomenal given that Hong Kong is a city where half of the inhabitants never leave their apartment before noon on a public holiday. I can understand where the official you quoted is coming from. But the fact that they don't seem to realize that the voting turn out is going to be huge shows how aloof and detached these bureaucrats are from the average citizens : that they would rather trust some survey numbers as opposed to visiting the protest grounds, or even just turn on the TV and they can see how angry and frustrated the people are. If this were two hundred years ago, I'm sure Carrie Lam would ask her assistants why don't we all just eat cakes.
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Dec 3, 2019 10:17
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WarpedNaba posted:By making them both destitute wastelands? Fair enough. The overwhelming evidence is Chinese cities have both been growing extensively. Rural areas are emptying, but that is the usual assumption with mass urbanization. I mean you can look at recent youtube videos of most Chinese cities and can clearly see the difference from even a decade ago. Also for the BRI, it seems like it has generally been successful looking at most projects (the new railroad in Kenya was both expensive...but also is now completely booked). Chinese engineering firms are even working on the Moscow metro at this point. I would say the biggest failure I have heard about is probably that new airport in southern Sri Lanka. It is true that US-Chinese relations were on the slide for a while and Xi is part of that, but it may also have been just a matter of time. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Dec 3, 2019 |
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Dec 3, 2019 14:45
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Portugal resists US appeal to bar Huawei from 5G network quote:LISBON, Portugal (AP) — Portugal won’t exclude Chinese companies from supplying technology for the country’s next-generation 5G wireless network, senior Portuguese officials told U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday. As if the US wasn't caught with its hands in the cookie jar with Angela Merkel.
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Dec 9, 2019 01:21
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:Portugal resists US appeal to bar Huawei from 5G network I bought a Huawei phone recently and did research through cybersecurity websites etc first. Outside of the US government bubble, the concern doesn't seem to be with any sort of weird backdoors. On network equipment, Huawei gear seems to have a typical issue which is that it's not standards compliant and therefore doesn't meet all security standards: it's implied it has backdoors but these seem to be down to bad engineering, not by design. Huawei is significantly cheaper and generally quicker to build new features than other manufacturers, however, which makes them appealing for non security critical applications. On consumer equipment Huawei is no better or worse than any other Android manufacturer. That said, it takes an aggressive line against root kitting devices in the types of ways you would need to if you were in a national security position. This doesn't imply anything malicious, just a defence of intellectual property, however, and lab tests have consistently failed to show any trojans or callbacks from Huawei devices like you'd expect to see if it 'rang home' to China.
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Dec 9, 2019 10:10
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:Australian secret police already figured out that the recent spy 'defection' was a scam: Do you have a source for the Aussie gov saying the spy defector was a scammer?
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Dec 9, 2019 12:52
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Central government is about to enlarge the Macau SAR and give it the same financial status it used to reserve for HK The idea of enlarging a SAR is novel- Macau is more evenly prosperous compared to HK. It would also be hilarious if this was a policy to bait more American intervention towards the Portuguese speakers there and take the heat off HK alone.
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Dec 15, 2019 17:31
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I'm all those Portuguese-speaking Macauans who aren't laundering CCP money in the casinos
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Dec 15, 2019 17:43
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Mean while in HK https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/photos/2664737973618694/ Joshua Wong chose to attack China on the angle that its not doing its part to prevent climate change. I am trying to figure out the logic of a broke brain that arrive at the decision of attacking China on climate change front. I know it! Just read whoever and whatever is getting an award in the last 5 minute and spin it as a topic to attack China. That's the MO.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:56
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https://twitter.com/joannachiu/status/1206255094229921798?s=19
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Dec 15, 2019 22:23
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whatever7 posted:I am trying to figure out the logic of a broke brain that arrive at the decision of attacking China on climate change front. ...Because China emits nearly a third of all carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and is continuing to build coal plants at home and abroad?
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Dec 15, 2019 23:00
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Acebuckeye13 posted:...Because China emits nearly a third of all carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and is continuing to build coal plants at home and abroad? How crucial is that thought considering China is still developing and relative use of coal power has sustainably been decreasing in recent years? (Also, I believe many of the coal plants they are building abroad at also in developing countries, but they have also been building substantial numbers of hydro-electric projects as well.)
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Dec 15, 2019 23:13
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China now emits double what the US does. It's not an unfair complaint at all.
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Dec 15, 2019 23:42
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Arglebargle III posted:China now emits double what the US does. It's not an unfair complaint at all. On a per capita basis it is still a fraction of the US. Unless your argument is that only western people deserve first world comforts and someone else should bear the brunt of decarbonization.
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Dec 15, 2019 23:44
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:On a per capita basis it is still a fraction of the US. Unless your argument is that only western people deserve first world comforts and someone else should bear the brunt of decarbonization. huh? No one, including China, should be building up dirty energy, especially if China is already the #1 pollutant in the world. Who made per capita pollution the metric. Is your brain broke? It's about the literal survivial of our planet.
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Dec 16, 2019 00:02
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Every county should do its utmost to reduce pollution. China doesn't do it. The US also doesn't do it. Both are terrible.
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Dec 16, 2019 00:03
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Acebuckeye13 posted:...Because China emits nearly a third of all carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and is continuing to build coal plants at home and abroad? And how do you work on lower the emission? I wonder if there is an international treaty to fight climate change together?
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Dec 16, 2019 00:11
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Plucky little China, forced by foreigners to pump toxic gas into the atmosphere
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Dec 16, 2019 00:23
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