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I see, so like the Dems can say they want to call someone and he can agree to do it but the GOP might decide to overrule it.
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Dec 15, 2019 04:42
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oh poo poo, did we ever get those pizzazz levels up?
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Dec 15, 2019 05:14
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https://twitter.com/FoxNewsSunday/status/1206222424590704640 https://twitter.com/FoxNewsSunday/status/1206222350506692609 fox's polling outfit is totally legit and respectable and also looool
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Dec 15, 2019 16:21
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working hard, thank you!
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Dec 15, 2019 16:32
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eke out posted:https://twitter.com/FoxNewsSunday/status/1206222424590704640 Fwiw, 538 lists both Fox news affiliated pollsters as A or B rated
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Dec 15, 2019 16:51
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oxsnard posted:Fwiw, 538 lists both Fox news affiliated pollsters as A or B rated oh yeah that wasn't a joke, fox consistently has good polls that contradict their own narratives
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Dec 15, 2019 16:55
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Oh ok was hard to tell what you were getting at based on how you structured your post
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Dec 15, 2019 16:58
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Hey eke out, how are you feeling about the senate now? Do you still think there are the 5 or so senators who will insist on a real trial or has McConnell's nee public messaging changed your mind?
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Dec 15, 2019 17:05
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E:Eh this is the wrong thread for this
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Dec 15, 2019 17:16
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oxsnard posted:Hey eke out, how are you feeling about the senate now? Do you still think there are the 5 or so senators who will insist on a real trial or has McConnell's nee public messaging changed your mind? i think McConnell and Graham and the rest of leadership clearly stating, for all to hear, that they want a sham process actively hurts their chances of getting a sham process. it makes it harder to get to 50/51 on any vote on a rules change, which will be necessary to actually have a sham process (assuming for the sake of argument that they can do it correctly and such a vote would not be filibusterable; they will fail any filibusterable vote by default unless they've explicitly agreed to neutral rules with dems) impeachment polling continues to suggest that things have been basically unchanged over the past few weeks, like 49% +/- 3 of americans support removal and anyone in a purple state remains in an absolute nightmare position. the only polls I've seen directly about problem are for Susan Collins, but for her there's some clear polls showing that no matter which way she votes it hurts her. i'd strongly suspect similar things are true for at least 2-3 other people. it's just none of those people are talking to the media because they are aware of how bad this looks for them, so wishcasting by the right end of the senate republicans has dominated the media narrative
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Dec 15, 2019 17:17
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eke out posted:i think McConnell and Graham and the rest of leadership clearly stating, for all to hear, that they want a sham process actively hurts their chances of getting a sham process. Thanks for the insight. So what do you make of this then? McConnell is many things, but he's no idiot. Is he doing this to bolster his own reelection chances? I'm with you on it hurting chances for a sham trial which is why I'm wondering if there's some other strategy here or if they're just batting down the hatches and trying to make the purple state Republicans realize it's a lost cause. Maybe hope it all blows over heading into the election
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Dec 15, 2019 17:29
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oxsnard posted:Thanks for the insight. So what do you make of this then? McConnell is many things, but he's no idiot. Is he doing this to bolster his own reelection chances? yeah i dunno, it's good red meat for their base no doubt, but i have no good explanation for why McConnell appears to think it's a good idea. the easiest answer is he just stupidly said the thing he actually thinks and not the thing that helps his party -- maybe there's some more complicated strategic explanation but idk, it's the 2019 republican party and i wouldn't bet on it Lindsey's a lot easier: his race appears closer than he's comfortable with, and he needs to burnish his True Trump Defender Conservative credentials to make sure turnout is good for him in a state Trump will win by default even if republicans don't turn out
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Dec 15, 2019 17:33
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eke out posted:https://twitter.com/FoxNewsSunday/status/1206222350506692609 Who are the people who want him impeached but not removed? 
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Dec 15, 2019 17:37
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My tinfoil self wants to believe that Mitch knows a real Senate trial is nearly as bad as just kicking the fucker out so you have a binary choice: sham trial and hope you survive or get wiped out in 2020, in that the hit from trial revelations is worse than the hit for making the process a mockery
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Dec 15, 2019 17:38
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Ither posted:Who are the people who want him impeached but not removed? republicans who are Very Concerned about this Abuse of Power but don't think that it's a Real Crime That Counts For Impeachment Purposes or some nonsense along those lines. soft nevertrumper types that frown on his lack of decorum but ultimately hate democrats more oxsnard posted:My tinfoil self wants to believe that Mitch knows a real Senate trial is nearly as bad as just kicking the fucker out so you have a binary choice: sham trial and hope you survive or get wiped out in 2020, in that the hit from trial revelations is worse than the hit for making the process a mockery this is a reasonable point. a real trial means Donald Trump throwing a fit on twitter when Roberts tells him he can't call Hunter Biden and Joe Biden and Adam Schiff, and the full senate having to vote down motions to overrule Roberts on these things, and trump declaring any republican that votes against him a traitor and carrying that grudge through the election. it's going to be an insane mess that trump makes so much worse for them, so you might have the right explanation there eke out fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Dec 15, 2019 |
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Dec 15, 2019 17:42
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The obvious solution is to call @Jack in to hellban Trump's personal twitter account ahead of announcing SHOCKING NEW REVELATIONS that force the GOP to conduct the most honest, transparent impeachment in the history of ever, and then have Pence throw Trump under the bus with some poo poo like "I have become aware of a gross misuse of power by the President and must testify against him for the good of the constitution" and have hours of "gosh, I can't believe he lied to all of us like that wow".
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Dec 15, 2019 18:19
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FilthyImp posted:The obvious solution is to call @Jack in to hellban Trump's personal twitter account ahead of announcing SHOCKING NEW REVELATIONS that force the GOP to conduct the most honest, transparent impeachment in the history of ever, and then have Pence throw Trump under the bus with some poo poo like "I have become aware of a gross misuse of power by the President and must testify against him for the good of the constitution" and have hours of "gosh, I can't believe he lied to all of us like that wow". His base would tear them to shreds. You forget what happened to the old Republican politicians during Obama?
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Dec 15, 2019 18:35
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KillHour posted:His base would tear them to shreds. You forget what happened to the old Republican politicians during Obama? 75% of them would rally behind the party but the republican party is a house of cards based on marginal voting advantages in districts with unequal representation by population. So yeah even a 10% defection rate would spell doom LOL
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Dec 15, 2019 18:39
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Forget the general, I mean the primaries. They'd be replaced by even more insane people.
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Dec 15, 2019 18:45
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KillHour posted:Forget the general, I mean the primaries. They'd be replaced by even more insane people. They can shift over to "Dems are FURIOUS President Pence celebrates CHRISTMAS" poo poo after to distract everyone with shiny things.
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Dec 15, 2019 19:35
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https://twitter.com/rachaelmbade/status/1206282500303134727 this is a very good idea, it's basically the perfect situation for it, since Amash completely agrees with them on everything related to impeachment (and nothing else) and is already spending most of his time calling republicans hypocrites
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Dec 15, 2019 19:47
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eke out posted:republicans who are Very Concerned about this Abuse of Power but don't think that it's a Real Crime That Counts For Impeachment Purposes or some nonsense along those lines. soft nevertrumper types that frown on his lack of decorum but ultimately hate democrats more Also people on the left who think Trump being impeached but walking will make the biggest bloodbath for the GOP in November.
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Dec 15, 2019 20:41
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oxsnard posted:y'all do realize that the senate is going to acquit, the SC is going to force Trump to release financial records and then those records are still not going to get released? It's because there is no repercussion for it as the Senate and DOJ are fully under trump's control I mean at that point we have a full on constitutional crisis, so the question is if elections actually happen in 2020 after that.
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Dec 15, 2019 20:49
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Killer robot posted:Also people on the left who think Trump being impeached but walking will make the biggest bloodbath for the GOP in November. i think think they are right about that. id rather have him thrown out and its theoretically possible for him to get removed, but it sounds like its gonna be a circus no matter what happens. the GOP is possibly hosed either way and pence probably wouldn't win if he became president.
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Dec 15, 2019 21:18
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eke out posted:https://twitter.com/FoxNewsSunday/status/1206222424590704640 so there's still a significant portion "undecided" people and we're still at around 50% impeach and remove?
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Dec 15, 2019 21:49
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I particularly enjoy that even applying the margin of error they give, it still comes out to a majority impeach and remove.
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Dec 15, 2019 22:31
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Kiranamos posted:I particularly enjoy that even applying the margin of error they give, it still comes out to a majority impeach and remove. plurality. majority = >50% plurality = biggest chunk given 100 people: if A has 30, B has 25, C has 5, and D has 40, then D has plurality but not a majority. if A and B join forces, the new groups would be AB with 55, C with 5, and D with 40. AB would have both a plurality and majority
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Dec 15, 2019 22:47
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Liquid Communism posted:I mean at that point we have a full on constitutional crisis, so the question is if elections actually happen in 2020 after that. The GOP has already shown that they are more than okay with foreign government's interfering in our elections as long as it benefits them. I am very concerned about the 2020 election if Trump is acquitted and runs. Like, "Republican sanctioned vote system hacking" concerned".
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Dec 15, 2019 23:50
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I find it funny that "abused his power" gets the largest agreement on that poll, when you could try to wriggle off that hook about what constitutes "abuse," whereas he has flagrantly and repeatedly obstructed congress by blocking people from responding to congressional subpoenas.
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Dec 16, 2019 00:58
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It's all in the name. You don't have to be paying much attention to see the varied and pervasive ways that Trump has been abusing his power, even if those specific abuses aren't necessarily included in the article. Obstruction of Congress, on the other hand, requires at least a little bit of attention to understand.
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Dec 16, 2019 01:09
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Akumu posted:I find it funny that "abused his power" gets the largest agreement on that poll, when you could try to wriggle off that hook about what constitutes "abuse," whereas he has flagrantly and repeatedly obstructed congress by blocking people from responding to congressional subpoenas. It also has the highest "no" percentage. Basically, people are unsure about the actual charges but are more sure about how feel about Trump in general. Also, I'm the 1% of people who think Trump definitely committed bribery while in office but also thinks he didn't abuse his power.
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Dec 16, 2019 05:21
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KillHour posted:
Seems Mulvaney convinced somebody with his "get over it" talk
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Dec 16, 2019 05:58
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Might also be people who hate Trump but think the best outcome is to convict but leave him in office through the election instead of elevating Pence?
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Dec 16, 2019 06:14
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I'm sorry if this has been asked and answered before but Fox as a whole is pretty biased towards the right, I think we can agree on that. How is their polling considered super accurate? Is it because Murdoch et al have no control over that branch? The same with some of fox news' employees who push back against the narrative. Is it al to remove the idea of bias?
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Dec 16, 2019 09:54
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So what fresh hell are we looking forward to this week?
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Dec 16, 2019 14:09
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eke out posted:https://twitter.com/rachaelmbade/status/1206282500303134727 Yeah I also like this idea. I don't see an obvious downside to it.
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Dec 16, 2019 14:19
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https://twitter.com/joshgerstein/status/1206562797091524610
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Dec 16, 2019 14:42
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An insane mind posted:I'm sorry if this has been asked and answered before but Fox as a whole is pretty biased towards the right, I think we can agree on that. How is their polling considered super accurate? Is it because Murdoch et al have no control over that branch? The same with some of fox news' employees who push back against the narrative. The polling is not done by Fox itself. They contract it out to a reputable firm. I think it's a deliberate part of them pretending to be a legitimate news operation. They're actually OK on actual news, but that's only about 2% of what they broadcast. They make sure their opinion pieces and outright propaganda are indistinguishable from proper news.
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Dec 16, 2019 16:22
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An insane mind posted:I'm sorry if this has been asked and answered before but Fox as a whole is pretty biased towards the right, I think we can agree on that. How is their polling considered super accurate? Is it because Murdoch et al have no control over that branch? The same with some of fox news' employees who push back against the narrative. It's so they can point at their accurate polling when they do their "just an opinion and definitely not propaganda" shtick to verify their "legitimacy".
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Dec 16, 2019 16:35
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https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1206585733118660609 justsecurity got a bunch of attorneys to do summaries about criminal liability of trump for obstruction, extortion, FCPA, etc and posted them all in one extremely-thorough summary. also the intro by Weissman about standards of proof and the white house's refusal to allow witnesses is interesting
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Dec 16, 2019 16:38
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