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Oh ok, what’s the point if it can’t stop him from doing anything bad?
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Dec 18, 2019 06:02
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bowmore posted:Oh ok, what’s the point if it can’t stop him from doing anything bad? This is literally the most they can do with the powers granted to them by the Constitution. Him not getting removed doesn't mean it was pointless
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Dec 18, 2019 06:09
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bowmore posted:Oh ok, what’s the point if it can’t stop him from doing anything bad? What is the point in doing anything I mean, eventually the heat death of the universe renders it all moot
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Dec 18, 2019 06:11
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bowmore posted:so what happens if he gets impeached but doesn't get convicted? I think you better quit using that 'if', you're giving yourself false hope. There is absolutely no chance of any kind whatsoever, nor will there ever be, that the senate will vote to convict. It will not happen.  I have never been more certain of anything in my life. Slowpoke! posted:Dems are basically marking him with the scarlet letter of impeachment. It seems so obvious that he won’t be convicted in the Senate, but they feel the need to do this because we are pretty sure we will be finding out awful poo poo for decades to come. No way history looks kindly on Trump, and that is what Dems are banking on. History won't, but republicans will be lionizing him as the greatest president who ever lived from now until the earth dies from climate change.
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Dec 18, 2019 06:17
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Unoriginal Name posted:What is the point in doing anything (Baby emits photon equivalent to its remaining kinetic energy)
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Dec 18, 2019 06:19
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oxsnard posted:This is literally the most they can do with the powers granted to them by the Constitution. Him not getting removed doesn't mean it was pointless
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Dec 18, 2019 06:22
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bowmore posted:Oh ok, what’s the point if it can’t stop him from doing anything bad? Hopefully they run on "Vote the crook out of office so we can send him to jail"
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Dec 18, 2019 06:48
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Ogmius815 posted:I’d like to bring back “nice meltdown”. I like that catchphrase better. Sir, nice meltdown, this is a Wendy's drive-through.
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Dec 18, 2019 07:05
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You can also look at it as protecting themselves for when the other shoe drops. Since at this point it is a when not an if. There are a million time bombs waiting to go off for Trump. One of the most obvious at the moment is Lev Parnas. I had someone give me a theory earlier that I had not thought of before and while I don't know how plausible it is I did think it was interesting at least. So Russia compromises the GOP with a mixture of illegal money, kompromat and good old fashioned propaganda. The get Trump elected and have them all protect him with the promise of more money and election hijacking. At the eleventh hour they turn on them after they have dug themselves too deep letting loose all their kompromat effectively dooming the party. Reason being is that Russia was more worried about a real Republican president than a Democratic one with their geopolitical plans. I don't know how much I buy the reasoning but I can completely see them turning on them after it is too late for them to do anything.
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Dec 18, 2019 07:10
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empty whippet box posted:History won't, but republicans will be lionizing him as the greatest president who ever lived from now until the earth dies from climate change. These next 17 years are gonna be real annoying.
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Dec 18, 2019 07:14
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bowmore posted:Oh ok, what’s the point if it can’t stop him from doing anything bad? It's already basically been said, but the goal of this particular impeachment is not to remove Trump from office; if it happens, that's a pleasant and completely unexpected side effect. There are two actual goals: A) To show America, and the world, that the institutions of the United States mean something, and that individuals sworn to uphold the Constitution who haven't sold their souls still exist. (or at least that they can play the part of soul-havers) B) Through that show of morality, create a damning contrast with those who have sold their souls, create a binding record that shows that they care only for their own party, and not the greater good. And those goals lead to one result: a crushing defeat for the GOP in 2020's elections. Every Senator up for re-election next year who votes to acquit has a dagger aimed at their re-election campaign's heart (and to a lesser extent, weapons to be used against 2022 and 2024 Senators - less potent since the national attention span is short, but probably still effective enough to make an impact). There doesn't look to be a path for the GOP that evades this; they've created a cage for themselves where convicting Trump costs them enough chud voters that they'll be swept aside by even a normal amount of Democrat turnout, and refusing to convict Trump supercharges Dem/leftist anger and turnout and sweeps them aside anyways. Impeachment should hand Democrats the White House and the Senate, along with increasing the margin in the House, assuming they don't totally gently caress it up (and I think, even if they're actively trying to gently caress it up, they won't be able to not take the White House and keep Congress; only retaking the Senate really relies on the DCCC being quasi-competent). If Trump was not riddled with dementia and cursed with narcissistic pride, the GOP could perhaps use the trial to attempt to show innocence. But Trump is Trump, he can't be controlled by the GOP, and him answering questions under oath is a recipe for disaster. So they'll most likely try to just make a sham trial out of it (see: turbo-charged Dem turnout). And remember, once he's acquitted, Trump is gonna keep committing crimes. Those acquit votes are going to get heavier with every week of revelations. Happy Impeachment Eve, friends.
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Dec 18, 2019 07:28
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They're gonna impeach him while I'm on a plane. He will tweet the end of everything and the planes will fall out of the sky. I won't get to see the vote or everything burn.  I'd still really like to see him get his witness testimony in the Senate, but I suspect they'll stick with the sham approach. What's the over under these days? I'd be really happy to see this get up to 57, but yeah 67 is a long way off. There's still the last hope that this was all set up by Pence to get Trump removed. (Insert movie reference)
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Dec 18, 2019 08:45
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PhantomOfTheCopier posted:They're gonna impeach him while I'm on a plane. He will tweet the end of everything He's scheduled to do a rally in Pennsylvania while the final vote is going on lmao
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Dec 18, 2019 09:16
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Tayter Swift posted:He's scheduled to do a rally in Pennsylvania while the final vote is going on lmao That’s one way to distract the big baby.
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Dec 18, 2019 11:24
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hanales posted:That’s one way to distract the big baby. Well as long as no one on twitter triggers him McConnell can probably get his no witness trial. That being said beating him over the head with the fact he had to duck the whole thing over and over again will probably send him right back to Walter Reed.
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Dec 18, 2019 12:23
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hanales posted:That’s one way to distract the big baby. Rural PA is hugely red trump territory, but I’m wondering how many of his red-hats are gonna show up to this one. I bet attendance starts to dwindle with the holidays, and that’s not good for orange babby’s ego.
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Dec 18, 2019 12:27
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bowmore posted:Oh ok, what’s the point if it can’t stop him from doing anything bad? It will also help with the 2020 election. Dems need to do something to avoid another Clinton 3.0 . Especially considering the countries preference to give incumbents second terms. vincentpricesboner fucked around with this message at 12:39 on Dec 18, 2019 |
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Dec 18, 2019 12:36
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bowmore posted:Oh ok, what’s the point if it can’t stop him from doing anything bad? It’s forcing every Republican senator to go on the record on how they believe his actions aren’t actually impeachable. Believe it or not some of them actually care about their legacy and don’t want to go down in history as a villain. McConnell- on the other hand
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Dec 18, 2019 13:10
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PhantomOfTheCopier posted:I'd still really like to see him get his witness testimony in the Senate, but I suspect they'll stick with the sham approach. What's the over under these days? I'd be really happy to see this get up to 57, but yeah 67 is a long way off. My money is on 55, but I also think I'm being hopeful and would probably set the over/under at 52.5. HONG KONG SLUMLORD posted:Rural PA is hugely red trump territory, but I’m wondering how many of his red-hats are gonna show up to this one. I bet attendance starts to dwindle with the holidays, and that’s not good for orange babby’s ego. The MAGA-hat groupies will be there. They're not being invited back to their kids' places for the holidays anymore.
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Dec 18, 2019 13:23
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Happy Impeachment Day!!
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Dec 18, 2019 13:40
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I'm somewhat confused by the process of this whole thing. They did the Impeachment Inquiry, and then the Impeachment Investigation, and tonight they're going to do the Impeachment Itself, right? But what does this new step of actually doing Impeachment mean? What happens between tonight's vote assuming, they vote to do Impeachment, and the votes where they decide whether or not to remove him from office?
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Dec 18, 2019 13:43
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Gripweed posted:I'm somewhat confused by the process of this whole thing. They did the Impeachment Inquiry, and then the Impeachment Investigation, and tonight they're going to do the Impeachment Itself, right? But what does this new step of actually doing Impeachment mean? What happens between tonight's vote assuming, they vote to do Impeachment, and the votes where they decide whether or not to remove him from office? Thinking about it like a criminal case (which it is not so certain people in congress need to shut up about that, but it's a good metaphor), the house is the grand jury and police and they're voting to "arrest" Donald Trump and put him on trial. That gets handed off to the senate who holds the trial. The senators are the trial jury and will vote on whether or not Trump did the crimes. There's some basic rules laid down for how to conduct the trial, though those can be changed by majority vote. So what we'd reasonably expect is that we get a couple of days of "deliberations" (boring speech making) before everyone votes exactly as expected and Trump gets acquitted. Trump doesn't want that, he wants an actual trial. And the democrats wouldn't mind the opportunity to drag out a few more criminals and have them testify. So we might get a few more weeks of testimony where the democrats get damning revelation after damning revelation that the republicans desperately try to deflect before everyone does the exact vote that they were going to do from the beginning.
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Dec 18, 2019 13:50
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Gripweed posted:I'm somewhat confused by the process of this whole thing. They did the Impeachment Inquiry, and then the Impeachment Investigation, and tonight they're going to do the Impeachment Itself, right? But what does this new step of actually doing Impeachment mean? What happens between tonight's vote assuming, they vote to do Impeachment, and the votes where they decide whether or not to remove him from office? Legally it requires a trial in the Senate. The timing on that is decided by the Senate in consultation with the House, likely January. No President has even been removed by the Senate, even though three of them have been impeached so far, with Trump being the 4th, but I have a feeling he's going to take it the hardest.
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Dec 18, 2019 13:52
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Gripweed posted:What happens between tonight's vote assuming, they vote to do Impeachment, and the votes where they decide whether or not to remove him from office? So at some point after today, in January I guess, there will be a trial in the Senate. The House acts as the prosecution. The entire Senate serves as the jury. They hear witnesses and arguments like a regular trial, and the verdict is in the form of a vote. If two thirds of the chamber votes to convict (67 votes), the President is removed from office and per the 25th Amendment the Vice President assumes the role of President. The new President appoints a Vice President, whom is confirmed by the Senate. In practice, the Senate has 53 Republicans to 45 Democrats with two Dem-leaning independents. The Democrats will have to peel off 20 Republicans to get a conviction and removal, which in this climate it might be more likely that Congress is dissolved via a bomb as the first act of a Syrian style multi-side civil war. So, the outcome will more than likely be an acquittal on a party-line vote and the President remains in office. dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 14:00 on Dec 18, 2019 |
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Dec 18, 2019 13:54
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Ok, got it, thanks. But what if the Senate just says no and refuses to hold a trial?
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Dec 18, 2019 13:54
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Gripweed posted:I'm somewhat confused by the process of this whole thing. They did the Impeachment Inquiry, and then the Impeachment Investigation, and tonight they're going to do the Impeachment Itself, right? But what does this new step of actually doing Impeachment mean? What happens between tonight's vote assuming, they vote to do Impeachment, and the votes where they decide whether or not to remove him from office? A month-long trial in the Senate where the Senators decide whether or not to convict him of the charges he's been impeached for.
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Dec 18, 2019 13:55
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Gripweed posted:Ok, got it, thanks. They can't refuse. It's constitutionally required.
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Dec 18, 2019 13:56
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Hamelekim posted:They can't refuse. It's constitutionally required. OK, but what if they refuse to do the trial anyway?
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Dec 18, 2019 14:04
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Hamelekim posted:They can't refuse. It's constitutionally required. Actually the Constitution doesn't mandate a trial. It says the Senate has the sole authority to have one, but nothing about having to do it. Not having a trial would be completely unprecedented - it would be a breakdown of the checks and balances that are the foundation of the government, and the term "failed state" is more than stuff you read in a Poli Sci textbook. Much less damaging to just do the stupid trial and be done with it. dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 14:18 on Dec 18, 2019 |
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Dec 18, 2019 14:05
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What do we call a plurality of constitutional crises?
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Dec 18, 2019 14:07
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The only thing that makes Republicans look worse than having a sham, no witness trial is refusing to hold one. So it's sort of a moot point
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Dec 18, 2019 14:07
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Hamelekim posted:They can't refuse. It's constitutionally required. [Looks at all the norms violated and constitutional requirements ignored since Trump took office.] Yeah, that's not as strong of argument as you think it is. They're not going to because the republicans have no reason to ignore it, but entering the land of make-believe, the house's only recourse would be the courts and you could add it the giant pile of signs that the rule of law has completely broken down in the US.
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Dec 18, 2019 14:08
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LeeMajors posted:What do we call a plurality of constitutional crises? Mitch McConnell
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Dec 18, 2019 14:11
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LeeMajors posted:What do we call a plurality of constitutional crises? A fragile state
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Dec 18, 2019 14:12
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1207281232259760128 Maybe my English ins't very good, but Collins seems to be saying that every administration abuses its power?
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Dec 18, 2019 14:12
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refleks posted:Mitch McConnell 
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Dec 18, 2019 14:15
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refleks posted:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1207281232259760128 I mean, fair.
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Dec 18, 2019 14:17
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Slowpoke! posted:Dems are basically marking him with the scarlet letter of impeachment. It seems so obvious that he won’t be convicted in the Senate, but they feel the need to do this because we are pretty sure we will be finding out awful poo poo for decades to come. No way history looks kindly on Trump, and that is what Dems are banking on. I've been thinking about it and I don't really think this is so much about Trump, but about the Senate in 2020. Honestly, I don't even think if there was a tape where Trump says something to the effect of "Thank you Erdogan for transferring that money into my personal account, I will use it for abortions. In exchange here are some terrorists, let them run free," and that when Fox News says "well no that's a deepfake, both sides do it", Trump sits back in a chair and says "No, yeah I said it that's me", I don't think that the Senate would convict. However, it really puts a lot of pressure on people like Collins and Tillis. Even McConnell, maybe. They get put in a position where they either alienate those with more than 1 Trump accessory on their car, or whatever slice of the slim number of fencers are left (however possible that may be). And not to mention the contributions that may or may not come from either side. Focusing back on Trump. Benghazi taught me a lot. You don't have to officially convict someone. You just have to repeat something enough until it becomes truth. One thing that we can't discount is the literal physical and psychological effect that this must be having on Donald Trump. I'd say that he's going to be making worse and worse decisions as he goes on, but honestly as long as he rants about brown people and the deep state, and while the 'moderates' look at Elizabeth Warren and wring their hands about paying their fair share or that mandatory abortions will become law of the land, I don't see Donald Trump losing his poo poo having that much of an effect. I don't buy the 'well if we set a precedent now then what happens in a couple years from now' because there is absolutely nothing to suggest that the Republicans are going to do anything in good faith. And honestly the Democrats have to start acting like it. Feel free to correct my reasoning, I've been zero-dark-thirty for a month and a half and I've really been only reading the headlines. But right now the prediction markets have an 11% change of him being removed due to impeachment, which I think is quite high.
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Dec 18, 2019 14:25
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LeeMajors posted:What do we call a plurality of constitutional crises? Constituionals crisisii
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Dec 18, 2019 14:27
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refleks posted:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1207281232259760128 That’s exactly what he’s saying, yes.
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Dec 18, 2019 14:29
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