|
She came 8th, with 1,12%. Better than the Liberal, the Early Nazi, and Some Guy.
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 15:24
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 10:37 |
|
|
To quote John McDonnell when asked if he was devastated by Labour losing the election: "Usually when a socialist movement fails it ends with us all getting shot, so I'm content to live and fight another day."
|
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 16:22
|
|
|
Blut posted:Considering lots of the likely candidates for the next American president are 10+ years older than Putin, and live or have lived far unhealthier lifestyles, planning for any sort of retirement for him is rather premature. He'll be ruling Russia well into the 2030s if its just reliant on his age/health. Planning for things that are going to happen within the next 30 years, tops, is not premature. Not when you're talking about geopolitics.
|
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 17:56
|
|
|
Yes, unless those things that will happen are global warming.
|
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 18:19
|
|
|
Tesseraction posted:To quote John McDonnell when asked if he was devastated by Labour losing the election: "Usually when a socialist movement fails it ends with us all getting shot, so I'm content to live and fight another day." That's capitalism for you. Everyone remembers the 3000 bankers that were killed on 9/11, but no one ever mentions the tens of millions socialist party members in Eastern Europe that were shot immediately after the Iron Curtain fell, only 11 years prior. It is as if it hadn't even really happened.
|
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 19:06
|
|
|
Will Russia not have better cards to play in a worst case climate change scenario? A European pivot to bring them in the fold is only better for everyone. The US is looking East and NATO is more than brain dead. Even when Trump is out of the picture expect more and continued push toward isolationism. It would be wise for the EU to think about some sort of collective security apparatus. A bunch of dudes posting on Facebook in some Moscow basement are not going to destroy Democracy in the West. There needs to be more of a soft power approach to negating the Russian oligarchy, the other avenues that the West has taking only end up backfiring by Putin doubling down and raising the stakes.
|
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 19:07
|
|
|
No one will have better cards to play in a worst case scenario. Siberia turning into the new worlds breadbasket is unicorn bullshit. We're in this predicament because Germany and Poland are stuck to the teat of Russian gas, how bout they stop doing that instead of punting the problem and doing performative bullshit. Because otherwise you'll just be permanently shaked down by criminal idiots e.g. erdogan.
|
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 19:54
|
|
|
Russia’s land mass and available/soon to be available resources compared to population size gives them an advantage. The biggest threats to geopolitics in the next 50+ years due to climate change will be migration and disease. Russia is and will be capable of dealing with these issues. As was mentioned earlier a big reason for the EU sticking to Russia’s gas teat is political. The US has been focused heavily on increasing their export abilities of natural gas the last five years. Nord Stream 2 puts a small kink in that, so Trumps friends told him to go piss people off for no good reason.
|
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 20:07
|
|
|
goethe42 posted:That's capitalism for you. Everyone remembers the 3000 bankers that were killed on 9/11, but no one ever mentions the tens of millions socialist party members in Eastern Europe that were shot immediately after the Iron Curtain fell, only 11 years prior. It is as if it hadn't even really happened. He more meant the ones in Africa, Central Asia and Latin America... but you are aware that leftists were executed en masse after the Bolshevik revolution right?
|
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 20:29
|
|
|
Russia can't deal with their own submarine fleet, have a literal steam powered aircraft carrier whose toilet don't work,can't properly store old army surplus ammunition, is ruled like a middle age fiefdom that is only barely functional because there's only one money spigot, and he knows where all the bodies are buried.because he buried them. Russians ingenuity for piecemeal improvisation is fantastic, but will only work so far when the goddamn transural line starts going to poo poo or all the RBMK-1000 reactors start going tits up. Unless Russia's plan to fight climate change and refugees crisis is turning their country into a worse shithole than the places they are fleeing from,which, not gonna lie, they are trying their best. The current breadbasket of the world took 100 years and billions of manhours of work to become that, while funded by the world's largest and most powerful superpower ever,and we're supposed to believe a country that as the gdp of Italy can do the same in 50.
|
|
#
?
Dec 23, 2019 23:29
|
|
|
It really can't be understated what a poo poo-state the russian economy is in. The bottom rung of the working ladder in the EU get on average paid more in real terms than experienced college graduates in Moscow. There really isn't happening much anymore in what was once one of the worlds largest economies, now relegated to being a petrol-state wealth extraction machine for oligarchs. It also sees China creeping into it's sphere threatening it's long-term trade relations, particularly in regards to places like Mongolia and Kazakhstan. Putin has been running a fine distraction game this decade with the pivot to conservatism and military campaigns but things on the ground are just bad. If you think the EU and US are stagnant then you have seen nothing yet. Climate change looks appealing to Russia, not because of any green wonder, but because it opens up access to even more fossil fuels which delays the inevitable.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 08:01
|
|
|
goethe42 posted:That's capitalism for you. Everyone remembers the 3000 bankers that were killed on 9/11, but no one ever mentions the tens of millions socialist party members in Eastern Europe that were shot immediately after the Iron Curtain fell, only 11 years prior. It is as if it hadn't even really happened. those decapitated children in el salvador had it coming
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 09:05
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:Planning for things that are going to happen within the next 30 years, tops, is not premature. Not when you're talking about geopolitics. Who was talking about "Planning for things that are going to happen within the next 30 years"? The EU making trade deals now that that help finance Putin's current regime was what the discussion was about.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 14:04
|
|
|
Blut posted:Who was talking about "Planning for things that are going to happen within the next 30 years"? The EU making trade deals now that that help finance Putin's current regime was what the discussion was about. You get a stacking positive modifier for long-term trade that'll make Russia love Europe post-Putin.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 14:15
|
|
|
Tesseraction posted:He more meant the ones in Africa, Central Asia and Latin America... but you are aware that leftists were executed en masse after the Bolshevik revolution right? And it's not like the Soviet Union didn't happily partake in the violent suppression of communist movements that weren't alligned with Moscow. As much as they use it to dunk on the USSR, people forget that the Hungarian uprising and the Prague Spring were both socialist revolts.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 15:38
|
|
|
Also literal millions of 'suspected communists' were murdered in Indonesia or kept in prison camps for decades long after everyone forgot about them.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 16:36
|
|
|
nimby posted:You get a stacking positive modifier for long-term trade that'll make Russia love Europe post-Putin. What's best for Europe in the long term, a Russia that depends on EU trade to remain relevant on the world stage, or a Russia that has been entirely vassalized by China?
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 17:20
|
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:Also literal millions of 'suspected communists' were murdered in Indonesia or kept in prison camps for decades long after everyone forgot about them. Greece had its own history similar to that, with the state breaking its promises to the Communist side of the civil war, and sending communists and other such political dissidents to prison islands. The Junta itself was the child of anti-communist animus.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 17:44
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:What's best for Europe in the long term, a Russia that depends on EU trade to remain relevant on the world stage, or a Russia that has been entirely vassalized by China? What's best for Europe now, keep absolutely being dependent on raw fossil fuels from a oligarchy whose hobby is to gently caress around with the internal politics of your bloc, or start massively investing in cutting that dependency, even if it hurts gazprom, e.on and rwe bottom line? Btw, am I talking about Russia, Saudi Arabia or the US here? If Germany was serious about things they wouldn't have shuttered their nuclear program.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 19:14
|
|
|
Antifa Poltergeist posted:If Germany was serious about things they wouldn't have shuttered their nuclear program. The only thing Germany is serious about is selling cars.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 20:37
|
|
|
Yeah, and they are also very interested in becoming even more of a world leading financial services player, so no amount of real politik or vision for the future is going to beat that.we all know it.its also why the EU as a project is mortally wounded.because it's a project whose two actual mandates are "kick the can down the road" and "gently caress you, more money for us". Is the EU better for Europe than what Europe had before? Absolutely, 20 years ago. Now? Reply hazy, try again later.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2019 22:28
|
|
|
My main worry about a EU collapse are 1) All former member states immediately descending into ethno fascism and 2) all former member states immediately ditching all EU environmental regulations due to the prisoners dilemma. Those around me think I am being "apocalyptically pessimistic". Am I really or am I just surrounded by idiots?
|
|
#
?
Dec 25, 2019 00:53
|
|
|
AceOfFlames posted:My main worry about a EU collapse are 1) All former member states immediately descending into ethno fascism and 2) all former member states immediately ditching all EU environmental regulations due to the prisoners dilemma. Those around me think I am being "apocalyptically pessimistic". Am I really or am I just surrounded by idiots? Yeay sounds about right. Most likely fascists expedite the collapse by blaming each other and taking sides
|
|
#
?
Dec 25, 2019 00:57
|
|
|
AceOfFlames posted:My main worry about a EU collapse are 1) All former member states immediately descending into ethno fascism and 2) all former member states immediately ditching all EU environmental regulations due to the prisoners dilemma. Those around me think I am being "apocalyptically pessimistic". Am I really or am I just surrounded by idiots? The EU is no real impediment to ethno-fascism so you don't have to worry too much about that happening after a potential collapse.
|
|
#
?
Dec 25, 2019 23:02
|
|
|
Please do not enflame AceOfFlames's pessimism any further. Not saying you're wrong per se, but there's no reason to add to his pessimism - dude is like a firestorm of despair, sucking in whatever information justifies his dark thoughts and then using that as an impetus to seek out even more.
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 06:16
|
|
|
Yeah AOF, we tell you everytime. I understand your anxiety and poo poo, we are all on the Titanic. But get therapy, you ain't helping anybody, harming yourself and busting our collective balls.
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 09:50
|
|
|
MiddleOne posted:It really can't be understated what a poo poo-state the russian economy is in. The bottom rung of the working ladder in the EU get on average paid more in real terms than experienced college graduates in Moscow. There really isn't happening much anymore in what was once one of the worlds largest economies, now relegated to being a petrol-state wealth extraction machine for oligarchs. It also sees China creeping into it's sphere threatening it's long-term trade relations, particularly in regards to places like Mongolia and Kazakhstan. Putin has been running a fine distraction game this decade with the pivot to conservatism and military campaigns but things on the ground are just bad. If you think the EU and US are stagnant then you have seen nothing yet. It isn't accurate btw, and if you are talking about pay, I assume you mean in terms of Euros but ignoring the fact that Russia/even Moscow is vastly different in terms of the price of living in PPP. The Soviet Union might have been one of the larger world economies at one time, but that isn't the same thing as Russia, and also energy has been slowly decling as a source of Russian exports (and natural gas is making a higher percentage of that total.) Also, Russia and China are in an active alliance together, and Russia has more to gain from trade with China than it is losing from Mongolia and Kazakhstan. Ancedotally, also Russia cities have been moderizing pretty rapidly, it has been uneven but there has clearly been a ongoing change. This is not to say Putin isn't notoriously corrupt or an reactionary rear end in a top hat, but if anything Russia has been recovering largely despite him. Nevertheless, Russia certainly has more of a future looking east than west now, but could certainly use better leadership that could readjust spending more towards health and educaion by utilizing the rather massive economic resources available to the Russian state.
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 11:26
|
|
|
Taking a long term perspective though it seems very hard to argue the Russian economy has a bright future, and it seems likely that for the forseeable future it will continue to have slower or comparable growth to the EU, which is pretty impressively bad given EU nations are already a lot wealthier. The macro trends are very bad. Russia's population is aging rapidly and it can't attract immigrants to make up for low birth rates the way Germany can. Even putting aside issues with the future of fossil fuel exports, Russia's future growth will depend on increasing trade and global connectivity. That is continually hampered by Russia's terrible relations with it's European neighbors and the US, and there seems little prospect of those tensions declining drastically in the near term. Nor does it seem likely Russia's excessive military spending will be diverted into more productive sectors like education or healthcare so long as relations stay bad. In the past 40 years EU nations have increased their GDP 5 fold, while the US GDP has increased seven fold. Maybe it's unfair to make the same comparison with Russia, but it's hard to see it matching that performance in the next 20 years. Everything we know suggests that as a proportion of the world economy, Russia will continue to shrink in the medium term and at a faster rate than the west.
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 15:03
|
|
|
Squalid posted:Taking a long term perspective though it seems very hard to argue the Russian economy has a bright future, and it seems likely that for the forseeable future it will continue to have slower or comparable growth to the EU, which is pretty impressively bad given EU nations are already a lot wealthier. The macro trends are very bad. Russia's population is aging rapidly and it can't attract immigrants to make up for low birth rates the way Germany can. Right now, Russia even with sanctions is still growing faster than the Euro zone, and actually Russia PPP per capita terms is comparable to Eastern EU states. In nominal terms, Russia took a hit, but also nominal GDP perhaps doesn't really matter as Americans think. But Russia sees significant and continuous immigration from the rest of the CIS and it is the reason the Russian population is continuing to grow. In addition, while the fertility rate is still low that is mostly also an echo valley from the 1990s, which should slowly correct itself. While Russia's relationship with the US is obviously poor, its relationship with the EU is slowly repairing itself and has to repair itself because Europeans still need Russian NG. In addition, it is likely that Asian trade will continue to increase. That said, the drop in the Ruble and sanctions has been ironically useful since it has increasingly helped improve Russian domestic industries. Russian military spending is high, but the real issue is internal security spending as well an unequal tax system. Also, too much has been blown on events and high-profile projects in recent years. The Russian budget does need to be obviously refocused, but that takes decent leadership. There is plenty of revenue/potential revenue, but it is just the choices made with it. Talking about grow in the last 40 years is ridiculous considering during the 1990s, the Russian economy collapsed and it took time for it to rebuild itself. Also, for Russia to shrink significantly quicker than the West...Russian grow would have to be significantly less than at least the Euro-zone...which isn't. I wouldn't say that Russia is going to become a super-power again any time soon, but it doesn't mean the country has no future. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:09 on Dec 26, 2019 |
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 17:06
|
|
|
Certainly Russia has a future, but there's also no indication its relative economic position is going to change much in the near to medium term. Yes there are problems looking at the long term trend, but just looking at a single year and extrapolating anything about the future from that is equally absurd. The Russia economy has been much less stable over the past 30 years than Europe. Hopefully the future will be more stable than the last two decades, but its reasonable to expect continued higher variance in growth numbers relative to western Europe given its reliance on fossil fuel exports subject to volatile price changes. I don't know enough about the Russian government to say anything about its future but looking around the world, it seems hard to argue political systems based around powerful Presidents are characterized by long term stability. I assume Russia will continue to absorb significant numbers of Central Asian migrants, however even with that contribution Russia population growth has been low compared to western Europe since 2000. I also wonder if it will sustain at the same rate as the area runs out of ethnic Russians. I also wonder how good Russia is at attracting the kind of high skilled immigrants that add so much value to North American and western European medical and technology sectors. Russia is likely to improve relations with western Europe, but only because they have been so bad that the only way they could go from here is up. Long term, Russia keeps making problems for itself like Crimea, which are going to remain bleeding ulcers poisoning relations with its neighbors essentially forever. Whenever relations seem to be improving something else happens. The issue you raised about bad choices being made regarding spending and revenue are also indicative about long term issues with the Russian economy contributing to low productivity and investment. I'm hardly an expert in this area so I can't say anything detailed but is there any reason to believe the government is going to become significantly better on this in the near future? Is the fundamental problem creating this issue going to change?
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 18:18
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:But Russia sees significant and continuous immigration from the rest of the CIS and it is the reason the Russian population is continuing to grow. In addition, while the fertility rate is still low that is mostly also an echo valley from the 1990s, which should slowly correct itself. Where are you seeing that? Any population projection I've seen for Russia has it declining rapidly within our lifetimes. For example, from populationpyramid, 143m population in 2020 to 118m population in 2080: 
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 18:41
|
|
|
Blut posted:Where are you seeing that? Any population projection I've seen for Russia has it declining rapidly within our lifetimes. For example, from populationpyramid, 143m population in 2020 to 118m population in 2080: Those graphs are often just projections of current trends, and it is logical that 20 years after the worst declines of the 1990s that there would be reduced birth rates. It doesn’t mean that decline would just keep on going forever since population growth eventually turned positive after the crash, and therefore there will be second wave after the 1990s valley works itself out.
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 19:25
|
|
|
When it gets 10 degrees warmer russias gonna be a near mediterranean climate. Good for tourism
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 19:29
|
|
|
Squalid posted:Certainly Russia has a future, but there's also no indication its relative economic position is going to change much in the near to medium term. Yes there are problems looking at the long term trend, but just looking at a single year and extrapolating anything about the future from that is equally absurd. The Russia economy has been much less stable over the past 30 years than Europe. Hopefully the future will be more stable than the last two decades, but its reasonable to expect continued higher variance in growth numbers relative to western Europe given its reliance on fossil fuel exports subject to volatile price changes. I don't know enough about the Russian government to say anything about its future but looking around the world, it seems hard to argue political systems based around powerful Presidents are characterized by long term stability. Part of that instability is also just due to the fall of the Soviet Union and honestly Gorbachev trusting the West, I don't think we will see a repeat of that. Also, while oil prices bring instability, the Russian economy has been diversifying and with that diversification, the Ruble has slowly detached from oil prices. (Also, current oil prices are depressed by fracking in the US which may not last.) Also, natural gas contracts are usually far longer term. quote:I assume Russia will continue to absorb significant numbers of Central Asian migrants, however even with that contribution Russia population growth has been low compared to western Europe since 2000. I also wonder if it will sustain at the same rate as the area runs out of ethnic Russians. I also wonder how good Russia is at attracting the high skilled immigrants that add so much value to North American and western European medical and technology sectors. A lot of CIS immigrants now are not ethnically Russian, but that doesn't mean they don't have skills or can't assimilate (even if some assholes give them a hard time). Also, the US more recently has actually made it much harder for Russians to get any sort of visa. quote:Russia is likely to improve relations with western Europe, but only because they have been so bad that the only way they could go from here is up. Long term, Russia keeps making problems for itself like Crimea, which are going to remain bleeding ulcers poisoning relations with its neighbors essentially forever. Whenever relations seem to be improving something else happens. The big shift is simply going to be that the Russians along with other Eurasian powers are going to probably going to keep on influencing European politics one way or another. Crimea happened, but honestly the breach was not nearly as bad as it could be and has slowly repaired itself over time. One thing also is that between Brexit and a more isolationist US, the EU is going to have to cut some deals even if they don't particularly like Russia/China. quote:The issue you raised about bad choices being made regarding spending and revenue are also indicative about long term issues with the Russian economy contributing to low productivity and investment. I'm hardly an expert in this area so I can't say anything detailed but is there any reason to believe the government is going to become significantly better on this in the near future? Is the fundamental problem creating this issue going to change? There has been some progress in higher education, but far more can be done. Health care still is extremely underfunded. A big part of the issue is that the current government is very right-wing, and that is one of the reasons leftist parties are gaining some traction. It is unpredictable since the mainstream Communists are still allied with the Kremlin but their base is moving in a different direction. Also, the left-wing and the liberal opposition absolutely hate each other as well. It is a 3 way-stand off. I do know there is cash available that could fix a lot of the issue the country it is either misallocated or stolen, but on the other hand, the US and the West are still widely distrusted. WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:When it gets 10 degrees warmer russias gonna be a near mediterranean climate. Good for tourism Climate change won't necessarily be an easy transition, nevertheless it still hasn't snowed in Moscow. The world in 20-30 years will not be the one we grew up with. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Dec 26, 2019 |
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 19:54
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:
Без трудa не вытащишь и рыбку из прудa.
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 22:09
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:I do know there is cash available that could fix a lot of the issue the country it is either misallocated or stolen, but on the other hand, the US and the West are still widely distrusted. Yeah there's a lot of room for manoeuvre, Russia has ludicrously low debt/GDP, and even more ludicrous amounts of foreign reserves accumulated. There's a lot of good those could do, if only the state allowed itself.
|
|
#
?
Dec 26, 2019 22:55
|
|
|
I have a dumb theory: Considering money is just numbers, with no relevance to anything anymore. Every single dollar spent by the government, is a dollar that was created from nothing. The purpose of taxation isn't to gather funds, it's to remove money from circulation, to prevent inflation. Debt is meaningless. austerity prevents money from entering circulation. and money that just sits, slows down a economy. This why progressive taxes are important, and why inheritance taxes are necessary.
|
|
#
?
Dec 27, 2019 12:33
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Those graphs are often just projections of current trends, and it is logical that 20 years after the worst declines of the 1990s that there would be reduced birth rates. It doesn’t mean that decline would just keep on going forever since population growth eventually turned positive after the crash, and therefore there will be second wave after the 1990s valley works itself out. Are you basing this opinion on any facts / actual academic research papers, or is it just a personal 'hunch' as it seems? Every single report I've seen says the complete opposite. For example: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2015/04/02/the-russian-economy-in-2050-heading-for-labor-based-stagnation/ https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/06/18/un-predicts-russias-population-could-halve-2100-a66035 To quote the former of those on immigration, which you said would be responsible for much of the population growth: quote:Are there so many potential migrants?
|
|
#
?
Dec 27, 2019 13:01
|
|
|
SniHjen posted:I have a dumb theory: Welcome to modern monetary theory?
|
|
#
?
Dec 27, 2019 15:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 10:37 |
|
|
Blut posted:Are you basing this opinion on any facts / actual academic research papers, or is it just a personal 'hunch' as it seems? Every single report I've seen says the complete opposite. For example: The Brookings article is just old, Russian pension reforms already happened and it doesn’t talk about current demographics. The Moscow Times article also has limited info and is based on the most pessimistic UN projection of 80 years into the future (no one knows the future that far out). I don’t know if that quote really is contrasting what I am saying either. As far the 1990s “drought” it isn’t an unknown subject. ——— Btw I wonder if MMT is going to hold up if the US’ reserve currency status starts to take a hit, there may be an comeuppance for 8 years of Trump.
|
|
#
?
Dec 27, 2019 16:01
|
|