Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

Number19 posted:

So many homes were bought during the craze with no subjects at all so I can�t wait to hear about all the lovely houses that are rotting now that they�re a few years older and have been rained on.

I can�t imagine making that big of a purchase without requiring at least one inspection. People were loving crazy

The land value for a lot of these properties is > 95% so honestly who cares if the house is poo poo.

The bigger issue is buying properties that are misrepresented and at slide or sinkhole risk.

# ? Dec 20, 2019 22:50

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# ? May 27, 2024 15:35

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

ARACHTION posted:

I visited a building on Keefer that has Juke chicken in it. I think it�s only two years old. The elevator shaft smells like a drained fish tank and there was a notice saying the elevators basically had to be completely redone as well as the roof and shaft. #rimewasright

That's a building I worked on in November 2017, yup.

# ? Dec 20, 2019 23:44

James Baud: May 24, 2015; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

half cocaine posted:

I don't understand, are you saying it's not a problem that homeowners are hiding their financial distress with their helocs?

Is it really financial distress at all, to spend a couple hundred thousand more than you "earn" when your housing equity has gone up by far more than that and you accept that you'll one day downsize/relocate as a consequence?

(Or just ignore it until it comes out of the estate. Whatever works.)

# ? Dec 21, 2019 01:11

half cocaine: Jul 22, 2019

James Baud posted:

Is it really financial distress at all, to spend a couple hundred thousand more than you "earn" when your housing equity has gone up by far more than that and you accept that you'll one day downsize/relocate as a consequence?

(Or just ignore it until it comes out of the estate. Whatever works.)

Well you watched the video right?

# ? Dec 21, 2019 01:23

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

cowofwar posted:

The land value for a lot of these properties is > 95% so honestly who cares if the house is poo poo.

The bigger issue is buying properties that are misrepresented and at slide or sinkhole risk.

It's a funny thing that, though. If you're buying a property and you want to hold onto it for investment purposes, but not live in it, you'll also want to rent it out. So while the assessment might say that the 40-year-old house on the property is only worth $100K, in practice it could be bringing in $40-50K/year for the owner.

Similarly, there have been properties sold in East Van with an aborted new build (ie literally just a hole in the ground). Those sold for a lot less than the property alone was supposed to be worth, because there was no house.

I really don't know where the assessed values come from on old houses like that.

# ? Dec 21, 2019 02:36

Snuffman: May 21, 2004

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

Also, the realtor who used to have the giant pink billboards (Cindy Sells or some such nonsense) looks nothing like the billboards.

Ha ha...ohhhhh Cindy.

I still see her pink car (covered in her logo and heavily photoshopped picture) now and again.

# ? Dec 21, 2019 04:00

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

Snuffman posted:

Ha ha...ohhhhh Cindy.

I still see her pink car (covered in her logo and heavily photoshopped picture) now and again.

I couldn't imagine having to do that sort of thing to make a living, even if it was a great living. Used house sales people...yeesh.

# ? Dec 21, 2019 23:47

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Perfect stocking stuffer for thread readers?

quote:

Vancouver author recounts 140 years of real estate horror stories
Land of Destiny is available now via Anvil Press

It�s a book chronicling 140 years of real estate calamity, colossal greed and even �skulduggery,� yet its name is Land of Destiny.

When explaining the title, author Jesse Donaldson�s voice straddles between black humour, disbelief and a faint touch of hopelessness.

Land of Destiny, as it turns out, was how the city was marketed to newcomers in a 1910 magazine clipping.

�It looked no different than the stuff you�d see in real estate brochures today,� Donaldson said. �It was fascinating to go back through all of this stuff over 130 years and seeing the same kinds of things being said, not just about affordability, but the rhetoric around the real estate industry.�

The recurring themes that pop up throughout Land of Destiny are the worst of the worst: Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) employees amassing vast wealth through deception and insider trading, outright lies and political corruption spanning decades.

So what�s different now?

�I was fascinated by how little things have changed,� Donaldson said.

Donaldson�s book covers the time period spanning 1862 � the time of the first land sale in the West End � up until Expo �86 with good reason. As Donaldson explains, the forces of corruption and greed that led up to 1986 are still very much at play today.

�Politically, we were na�ve at best about what happens when you let rich people do whatever they want, and that�s what happened during the recession in the 1980s,� Donaldson said. �That�s permeated every element of our society here.�

...

# ? Dec 22, 2019 05:24

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Paging that goon so smug about moving to Australia RE: their feelings about now living in a firey hellscape and probably the first developed/western nation to experience climate-change induced collapse.

# ? Dec 28, 2019 16:20

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

Rime posted:

Paging that goon so smug about moving to Australia RE: their feelings about now living in a firey hellscape and probably the first developed/western nation to experience climate-change induced collapse.

They just need to get Crocodile Dundee on the case...he'll fix it all with his giant knife.

And why they aren't using Fosters to douse the flames is beyond me...that stuff is mostly water anyway!

# ? Dec 28, 2019 19:24

HookShot: Dec 26, 2005

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

And why they aren't using Fosters to douse the flames is beyond me...that stuff is mostly water anyway!

Literally no one in Australia actually drinks Fosters, it was just a giant marketing campaign they did to sell their beer overseas.

Like seriously, in four years of living there I never once saw a single person drinking any, and in a lot of liquor stores they straight-up don't bother selling it.

# ? Dec 28, 2019 19:41

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

HookShot posted:

Literally no one in Australia actually drinks Fosters, it was just a giant marketing campaign they did to sell their beer overseas.

Like seriously, in four years of living there I never once saw a single person drinking any, and in a lot of liquor stores they straight-up don't bother selling it.

Oh, I know this...was an underlying part of the joke (oversupply from not drinking means plenty to dump on the fire) but whatever, I'm on holidays.

# ? Dec 28, 2019 20:33

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

So Vancouver has finally got its "Four Floors and Corner Stores" zoning that was the core slogan of YIMBY market urbanist activists (ok no corner stores yet, and it's not fully city wide, but it's a big change.).

I posted about this before around when the vote happened, but here's a larger article with more details about what this all means.

quote:

Vancouver pushes a four-storey model

Vancouver city council has approved a new plan that includes the prezoning of broad areas of the city to allow four- to six-storey apartment buildings in areas that currently only allow detached houses.

It�s part of a major new push by city staff for more rental developments at a faster pace. At a marathon council meeting on Nov. 26, after hearing from many speakers, council approved several staff recommendations, with some amendments. The plan includes a two-year pilot program to allow rezonings for newly built rental apartment blocks in large parts of the city that are zoned for detached houses. Up to six storeys will be allowed on major streets in these areas, and four storeys on side streets, but not far from major streets and near schools, shops and parks. Twenty per cent of units in the six-storey apartment buildings on major streets must be below market, meaning they would be affordable to those making less than $80,000 a year. The four-storey buildings on the side streets will be market rate, because the economics of affordable units in low-rise buildings didn�t work for developers.

The plan would cover areas where big houses have already been converted to multiple units.

The plan also includes the allowance of up to six storeys on commercial zoned streets, with all five storeys of residential units for market-rate rental. Many commercial zones affected run along Kingsway, Fraser and Main, and along some west-side streets, such as Dunbar and West Fourth Avenue. The applicants would not have to go through the lengthy rezoning process, which would normally include a public hearing. The city says this part of the proposal would not affect areas that already have a community plan.

Council�s decision came after an all-day meeting that heard from many industry members who spoke in favour of the new prezoned rental zones. It is an attempt to shift development away from condos and toward rental, and city staff say the rental-only changes will likely not result in a spike to land values. However, several residents and housing experts disagree. They say the city is again relying on the market to save us with more market supply, instead of addressing the true needs of diverse neighbourhoods.

�We are not replacing old units with new for the sake of investment or whatever,� said Gil Kelley, the city�s general manager of planning. Mr. Kelley said he is concerned that Vancouver is about to experience the rapid growth of San Francisco, where he was director of citywide planning. �It�s not just about moving the pieces around that are on deck right now, but thinking about the tsunami of the new economy arriving here, and it�s coming here in a hurry. Even two years ago you could say it�s a far-off phenomenon. Now it�s clear that those folks are coming � and there�s a huge pressure on the existing rental supply. And if we don�t get out ahead of that, frankly we are going to be in the same situation that San Francisco and to some extent, Seattle, have found themselves.�

The proposed zoning changes, which will affect most of the city, will go to public hearing some time in the spring of 2020, possibly April.
The move startled some housing experts and citizen groups who wondered why the city would launch a broad rezoning plan when a citywide land-use plan is under way. The coming citywide plan is supposed to be a collaborative process between the city and residents, who give their input on how they see their neighbourhoods and city shaping in the next 30-plus years. Critics of the rezoning say such a major change should go to the public first, not after. Some are certain that the changes will increase land values, and cause more displacement.

Andy Yan, a planner and director of Simon Fraser University�s City Program, is concerned that the proposed policy will only push working class and minority groups from their neighbourhoods. Developers will focus on the eastern and southern areas of the city, where land costs are lowest. Those areas are also significantly high in visible minority demographics. Visible minority populations are between 67 per cent and 84 per cent in Marpole, Oakridge, Sunset, Victoria Fraserview, Killarney, Renfrew-Collingwood and Kensington Cedar Cottage neighbourhoods, according to a map he created, based on the city�s Open Data Catalogue.

He says the city must analyze where the developments will land, and the impact on neighbourhoods according to demographics.

�Without [that analysis], the proposed policy becomes a form of �spray and pray� zoning,� Prof. Yan says. �The proposal threatens to deepen historical spatial injustices as it does not deal with the affordable family-sized rental that the people of the city need,� he says.
�People will be caught in the crossfire and become collateral damage in the city�s experiment.�

Paulina Mikicich is a planner for the City of Mississauga, and a former Vancouverite who also read the report. She is not giving her opinion on behalf of her employer, but as a private citizen.

�Private market developers will still �want to be made whole� because, after all, they are not a charity,� she says. �It offers no protection for existing residents nor ensures that it will house those most in need.

�A more gentle approach to density could look at how many rental units could be created on a 50-foot lot and still respect the architectural and landscape heritage � that was the beauty of laneway houses. Granted, even they are no longer affordable. But is it right to displace so many residents already living in more affordable second units? And will they have the opportunity to come back?�

Mr. Kelley and Dan Garrison, assistant director of housing policy for the City of Vancouver, do not believe there will be significant enough response to the pilot program to transform residential neighbourhoods. They say big developers are more interested in the six-storey commercial developments.

�With the requirement that it be rental only, and the limit to four stories [on the side streets], these aren�t going to be hugely attractive to all developers,� Mr. Garrison said. �To be honest, we haven�t really projected the number of projects we think will happen because we do think it will be a fairly modest take-up.�

Mr. Garrison and Mr. Kelley said the proposal dovetails nicely with the citywide plan � dubbed the Vancouver Plan � because it is a kind of test run to see how new density in these low-density areas will go. At the request of council, Mr. Garrison�s department is going to take a closer look at potential displacement of residents.

�Whatever take-up there is, it will be a learning thing, for all of us, for the community, the council and the staff, as to how we might shape so-called gentle infill going forward, which will be the topic of the Vancouver Plan,� Mr. Kelley said.

�Likely it will be mostly the east and south parts of the city [affected], and again, we didn�t do a deep demographic study about who might likely be affected by this. But I would say it�s something we want to observe during the process. And again, we will probably only have a few cases to do that testing with, in reality, but it still will be informative for us as we do the larger policy work on the citywide plan.�

Dorothy Barkley, co-chair for the Coalition of Vancouver Neighbourhoods, took issue with the fact that council and community groups were only given a few days to read through the 236-page report before the council meeting.

�There wasn�t enough time for the council to go through it and absorb it, much less members of the community. It wasn�t fair, for something so profound that will have so much impact on the city. There should have been a lot of consultation especially with [impacted] neighbourhoods,� Ms. Barkley said.

She says she believes that introducing new market rentals into neighbourhoods will lift land values. She says she also believes that the proposal will replace affordable rental units with unaffordable market-rate units.

�We�re not entirely convinced that there is a real understanding by the city as to what the issues are. They approve housing developments, but it�s never the right kind. It�s either luxury condos or market condos, or market rentals, which are too expensive.

�Also, we are supposed to be working towards a citywide plan, and that citywide plan is going to be based on neighbourhood consultation. Well, this would appear to render that moot.�

A few months ago, Rob Fisher and other residents near Commercial Drive had fought a six-storey development that, once built, would remove four old houses filled with affordable rental suites on Grant Street. The developer originally wanted to build condos, but they decided to do market rentals that allowed them to build to six storeys. In the end, the allowed height was five storeys. But a big market-rental building doesn�t fit the neighbourhood, says Mr. Fisher, a business owner who wants to see more affordable rental units as opposed to market rate. He had a petition signed by hundreds of residents, but he says he doesn�t feel the city was listening to their concerns.
�If it�s all market rental, you are squeezing out the neighbourhood. That�s part of what makes the Drive marvelous is its diversity, and not just ethnic and cultural, but economic groups.�

Mr. Garrison said that, �in lower-density forms at four storeys, it just wasn�t financially possible to require affordability.�

But Mr. Fisher doesn�t buy that developers can�t offer some affordable units in the new four-storey rental buildings that are being proposed for large swaths of the city.

�The bottom line right now is they are making a pot full of money. So you know what? They are going to make a smaller pot full of money.�

Quite a bit of notable revelations here to pull out.

1. Chief Planner Kelly expects Vancouver to experience the same tech money tsunami Seattle and SF experienced and is planning accordingly (the 10k office spots at the new Amazon office suggests he's right to be concerned)
2. City staff agrees with Yan and knows these changes will only really impact relatively more ethnic South and East Vancouver and they don't really seem to care.
3. City staff doesn't seem to think there will be much uptake on this (similar to their duplex plan).

That city staff state that they expect limited uptake on the four floor apartment idea is quite remarkable given that "Four Floors and Corner Stores" was heavily marketed by YIMBY market urbanist activists as the panacea to the housing crisis.

A notable Vancouver developer backs up the notion that four floor apartments are not likely to be that compelling to developers (not even in East Van).

https://twitter.com/rwittstock/status/1202823722580578305?s=20

This almost seems like an example of a developer saying the quiet part loud, considering that this sort of "four floors" was a big part YIMBY darling developer backed YES Vancouver's failed campaign last municipal election. If four floor apartment development was never actually viable, then why was it pushed as a solution? It suggests that the politicians advocating for this were being disingenuous and the YIMBY advocates helping them were useful idiots. If YES had won what would they have pivoted to? Four floor condos or perhaps taller buildings?

Andy Yan touches on a developing category of opposition to city wide rezonings: Chinatown activists and other racialized Vancouverites with deep roots in its various ethnic 'hoods.

This article cites presents an opposition opinion to this rezoning from that view:

quote:

�Upzoning� Might Mean More Apartments � But It�ll Wreck Neighbourhoods
Working-class, racialized people will be driven out by city-promoted gentrification.

When real estate developers pack a public hearing at Vancouver�s City Hall and the head of the Urban Development Institute shows up, you know the development industry wants something real bad.

That�s what happened last week at a city council hearing on a proposal to upzone swathes of the city � much of it in east and south Vancouver. City planners proposed allowing four- to six-storey market rental housing in commercial zones and on side streets near parks, schools and shopping. City council approved the plan.

This might sound like a win-win initiative. Policy makers are incentivizing rental housing and developers can profit at the same time. But in a city where an �affordable� market rental two-bedroom apartment is now $2,400 or more a month, who will be suffering the �unintended� collateral damage from the mass upzoning this time?

When Leo Yu, a new father who lives in a small studio with his family in East Vancouver heard about the new zoning, his thoughts immediately turned to his mother Susana, who relies on her East Side community to thrive.

�I worry that the new policies will create housing that favour wealthier tenants, while lower-income folks like my mom will keep getting pushed out of the city,� he said. �It would be devastating for my family if my mom was evicted.�

The upzoning targets large portions of the commercial and side streets of east and south Vancouver where many working class and racialized immigrant families like Yu�s live.

Go along Kingsway and Fraser and you�ll see the diversity of Vancouver. There�s Little Saigon between Fraser and Nanaimo, Filipino eateries, affordable Chinese grocers, Hong Kong caf�s, bakeries, hair salons, laundromats, dentists, hole-in-the-wall bubble tea shops, Indian and Pakistani restaurants, temples, churches and more.

Unlike most of the newly developing areas of Vancouver, you�ll notice that there are few chain stores. Most of the businesses are mom-and-pop and people-of-colour-friendly businesses.

Winnie Kwan, who grew up and still lives in southeast Vancouver with her multigenerational family, gushed about her neighbourhood. �I love my neighbourhood of South Hill that spans from 50th Street to 41st Street along Fraser. There is literally everything you could possibly need. It is, in my eyes, a star example of neighbourhood planning.�

Many working-class, minority families like Kwan�s and Yu�s own houses and live near those important commercial arterials. Pro-development activists call them �millionaire homeowners� and argue they can simply cash out and move wherever they please.

But here�s the reality.

�My mom almost choked when she saw what the increase in property tax is going to be next year. She is a full-time server in a diner restaurant and my dad a full-time chef in a Chinese restaurant. You�re calling us millionaire homeowners?� Kwan said in disbelief.

�My family isn�t looking to sell. That�s our only home. We�re staying. We don�t have anywhere else to go. So what the upzoning translates to is ever higher property taxes that my family needs to pay off on top of the mortgage we�re still working off.� (Upzoning can result in higher property assessments and taxes due to changes in the potential uses of the land and speculation.)

Yu concurred. �My mom�s landlords, who live upstairs, are low-income earners who barely get by,� he said. �They are a recently widowed mom and teenage son.�

Not surprisingly, these on-the-ground realities were missed in the 236-page city policy document. Jargon like C-2, FSR and �residential rental tenure� obscure the richness and challenges of the people and businesses in these neighbourhoods. Instead, the city simply calls them �low density transition areas.�

Kwan said the zoning means changes for the neighbourhoods that will erase their character.

�This kind of zoning is often a precursor for gentrification,� she said. �I�d hate to see the cultural diversity, and what I see a key characteristic of the neighbourhood I was born and raised in, lost to gentrification.�

Yu is worried about who will be able to afford the new market rentals and what the new businesses catering to those tenants will look like. The policies will continue the wave of gentrification that exacerbates the housing crisis and makes Vancouver less livable, he said.

�Gentrification puts folks like my mom at risk of displacement,� he said on Twitter. �She lucked out by taking over my [one-bedroom East Vancouver basement] suite.�

His mother lives on basic retirement benefits and pays $1,050 per month rent, including electricity. �New market-rate rentals will never house her,� Yu lamented.

�My mom uses one bus ticket round-trip to shop at Lian Hong on Fraser Street for take-out meals, frozen dumplings and sticky rice. She buys gifts for friends from a mom-and-pop over-supply retail store. She walks up and down Fraser Street weekly,� he added. �Hipster [businesses] will push out these shops.�

So what do city staff have to say about citizens� concerns about displacement?

�Based on economic testing, we do not anticipate a significant increase in the pace of development.... Rather, we expect to see a shift from some of the anticipated strata developments to rental.�

However, we�ve seen the damage done by market rentals in racialized, working-class communities. The shiny Brixton Flats in Chinatown is a prime example. Sure, it�s a market rental building, but the tiny expensive suites were built for millennial urban professionals who �live lightly.� Potential tenants were initially forced into personality screening when applying for tenancy. A new hipster juice bar � Kevin & Kevin � is moving into the ground floor next spring.

Might that be Yu�s mother�s new reality soon? It�s not hard to imagine.

It didn�t take long before economist Tom Davidoff jumped into the Twitter debate, asking Yu: �What do you think sufficient compensation for your mother would be in the event of redevelopment?�

Yu said the question misses the point.

�It�s a cruel question to put a price on a person,� he told me. �My mom is incredibly happy living in her basement suite. She loves being near her grandchild and has such great access to culturally appropriate businesses. She meets every morning for coffee with a group of Chinese elders in her neighbourhood. But if my mom ever got evicted, she will never find a home in Vancouver again. This terrifies me.�

As you head east on Kingsway towards the area where Yu�s mother lives, you�ll approach a 37-metre ladder standing in the median of the road. It was commissioned by luxury real estate developer Westbank as a public art contribution for its massive Kensington Gardens condo project. The 108-rung ladder to nowhere is supposed to encourage the viewer to �reach upward and beyond to achieve perceivably unattainable goals.�

Say what you will about Westbank�s art tastes, but the developer has a knack for choosing pieces that reflect the depressing state of Vancouver (cue the Spinning Chandelier).

Because soon, living and working in Kingsway and other areas affected by the zoning change will be �perceivably unattainable goals� for many of today�s residents and businesses.

You can see the visceral negative reaction to this new viewpoint from the typical Abundant Housing Vancouver persons responding to the article being tweeted. Seems like a new dividing line in Vancouver RE politics to keep an eye on.

Both sides have a point. Of course yes anyone in these ethnic hoods that bought in the 80s or 90s could sell with a substantial tax free gain, but there actually is no sideways move possible. They would accordingly be downgrading into a smaller and more limited space. The core question is where would they be downgrading to? It is their existing neighbourhood that has the services they need and love.

As we've seen from the earlier article, rising land values is not likely going to happen or be much of a concern to anyone, but new developments spurring gentrification and eroding the viability of businesses that serve the existing ethnic and low income residents seems like a real possibility.

# ? Dec 28, 2019 22:10

qhat: Jul 6, 2015

Rime posted:

Paging that goon so smug about moving to Australia RE: their feelings about now living in a firey hellscape and probably the first developed/western nation to experience climate-change induced collapse.

For someone not living in a firey hellscape you seem pretty hot and bothered about someone who does

# ? Dec 28, 2019 22:18

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

I haven't been there in a few years, but in my dad's neighborhood in Montreal did the "four floors and corner stores" thing, but all the ground floor stores were vacant.

# ? Dec 28, 2019 22:48

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

I just want to see more mixed use development towers instead of pure residential. Street level retail, three floors of office, rest residential. Vancouver has a shortage of commercial office space.

Blanket rezoning of the entire drat city to six story is a good idea regardless of whether or not it addresses any particular issues - having development wait two years to develop medium density in the metro area is dumb.

# ? Dec 28, 2019 22:50

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

In Singapore they do a thing called �four floors of whores� maybe that�s something to look into.

# ? Dec 29, 2019 00:33

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

In Singapore they do a thing called “four floors of whores” maybe that’s something to look into.

Gangs, mainly from China, already buy up entire floor plates in new towers and use them as impromptu brothels for trafficked women - mainly from SE Asia & primarily S.Korea..

# ? Dec 29, 2019 03:28

ARACHTION: Mar 10, 2012

If upzoning is occurring in East Van, the area in between Fraser and Clark is next up for gentrification. Especially with the Broadway skytrain coming up. Please say goodbye to the Vietnamese community there.

# ? Dec 29, 2019 10:37

HookShot: Dec 26, 2005

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

Oh, I know this...was an underlying part of the joke (oversupply from not drinking means plenty to dump on the fire) but whatever, I'm on holidays.

Fair, sorry for completely missing the joke :downs:

# ? Dec 29, 2019 14:44

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

HookShot posted:

Fair, sorry for completely missing the joke

Oh, no worries! It wasn�t readily apparent, but I thought it a funny undercurrent!

# ? Dec 29, 2019 16:45

Professor Shark: May 22, 2012

Is our economy going to crash anytime soon? I feel like the housing thing is less of a news story.

# ? Dec 29, 2019 17:07

Precambrian Video Games: Aug 19, 2002

Professor Shark posted:

Is our economy going to crash anytime soon? I feel like the housing thing is less of a news story.

It will crash the day after you buy a house and the day before you decide to sell off your stocks.

# ? Dec 29, 2019 17:19

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

It's waiting for the american economy to crash which should be some time in 2020.

# ? Dec 29, 2019 19:13

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

If the Vancouver City Planner's opinion is to be accepted, quite the opposite of a crash, he's expecting the good times to continue, and for there to be an influx of wealth to local workers.

# ? Dec 29, 2019 21:51

Classon Ave. Robot: Oct 7, 2019; by Athanatos

Femtosecond posted:

and for there to be an influx of wealth to local workers.

lmao

For what possible reason would this ever happen?

# ? Dec 29, 2019 23:47

Mantle: May 15, 2004

10,000 jobs at FAANG companies?

# ? Dec 30, 2019 01:45

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

eric ciaramella posted:

It's waiting for the american economy to crash which should be some time in 2020.

Probably the most serious answer, but I wouldn't make a bet on the year.

They keep on truckin', so do we.

We dodged the last one more or less, if poo poo blows up bigger for them next time, could get ugly.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 02:47

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Yep as discussed earlier Amazon alone is renting office space capable of housing 10,000 employees. On top of this Lululemon is building a new global HQ and Apple is also renting more office space here. In general commercial development is experiencing a huge uptick. There's a reason for it.

quote:

Amazon planning major expansion in Vancouver, tripling downtown footprint to take up an entire city block
...
In Vancouver, it is currently using just over 300,000 square feet, according to commercial realtors. It employs more than 1,000 engineers and researchers who work on e-commerce and Amazon Web Services, according to the most recent data from Amazon. The company has said it plans to grow to 5,000 corporate employees in Vancouver.

It is unknown if the additional space in The Post means Amazon will further bolster its workforce. An office property with 1.1-million square feet can house 10,000 employees, industry experts estimate.
...

None of the aforementioned companies are Silicon Valley hype so these six figure paying jobs will probably appear.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 02:48

i am harry: Oct 14, 2003

Femtosecond posted:

None of the aforementioned companies are Silicon Valley hype so these six figure paying jobs will probably appear.

Then the bubble inflates again for a while, right? My advice would be to buy polluted land and build SFH communities directly over it like Denver did when its tech center started bloating.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 02:58

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Vancouver has been in a housing bubble because it was clear that the insane property values had the weakest of relationships with actual local incomes. With an influx of more real six figure paying jobs it doesn't mean the bubble is over or is inflating more, but I dunno, maybe more that the underlying foundation of the bubble becomes more stable? That at least some prices in the market are becoming more justifiable?

My expectation for the new year is that multi million properties in west van and other wealthy hoods that were being juiced by foreign capital will remain in free fall, while the market for property within the grasp of couples making six figures will get tighter and tighter.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 03:07

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

Femtosecond posted:

Vancouver has been in a housing bubble because it was clear that the insane property values had the weakest of relationships with actual local incomes. With an influx of more real six figure paying jobs it doesn't mean the bubble is over or is inflating more, but I dunno, maybe more that the underlying foundation of the bubble becomes more stable? That at least some prices in the market are becoming more justifiable?

My expectation for the new year is that multi million properties in west van and other wealthy hoods that were being juiced by foreign capital will remain in free fall, while the market for property within the grasp of couples making six figures will get tighter and tighter.

Six figures doesn�t let you afford anything in this town. Let�s stop pretending that Amazon is going to pay US dollar equivalent wages in Vancouver.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 04:30

James Baud: May 24, 2015; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

Six figures doesn’t let you afford anything in this town. Let’s stop pretending that Amazon is going to pay US dollar equivalent wages in Vancouver.

Eh, it can support the heck out of the one and two bedroom condo market downtown. And if you take a married tech couple with each half earning around 200k -- and Amazon is paying people with not very much experience that much, total comp -- the low end houses (< 1.5m) are easily in reach too.

(And yes, 200k CAD is nowhere near US-equivalent. That's why they're gleefully hiring!)

# ? Dec 30, 2019 06:33

apatheticman: May 13, 2003; Wedge Regret

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

Six figures doesn�t let you afford anything in this town. Let�s stop pretending that Amazon is going to pay US dollar equivalent wages in Vancouver.

That's probably specifically why they are getting office space, Vancouver tech jobs are hilariously under compensated for their US dollar and cost of living equivalents.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 19:05

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

James Baud posted:

Eh, it can support the heck out of the one and two bedroom condo market downtown. And if you take a married tech couple with each half earning around 200k -- and Amazon is paying people with not very much experience that much, total comp -- the low end houses (< 1.5m) are easily in reach too.

(And yes, 200k CAD is nowhere near US-equivalent. That's why they're gleefully hiring!)

200K income on $1.5M is 7.5x leverage, double what is considered 'affordable' by most measures. I think your suggestion there is a pretty big reach, though certainly, it'll keep some element of the condo business going. My family income is much more than that and the notion of $1.5M on what passes for a house in this town is bananas.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 23:05

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

apatheticman posted:

That's probably specifically why they are getting office space, Vancouver tech jobs are hilariously under compensated for their US dollar and cost of living equivalents.

Of course. Also that it's much harder to get people into the US these days.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 23:06

James Baud: May 24, 2015; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

200K income on $1.5M is 7.5x leverage, double what is considered 'affordable' by most measures. I think your suggestion there is a pretty big reach, though certainly, it'll keep some element of the condo business going. My family income is much more than that and the notion of $1.5M on what passes for a house in this town is bananas.

My example was 400k income - a couple with 2x200k. With these rates, 1.5m is pretty cheap on that.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 23:11

half cocaine: Jul 22, 2019

Where else in the world is a middle class household paying $8k/ month to live in a 1000sqft condo?

I'm still not seeing the value of living here.

# ? Dec 30, 2019 23:34

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Whether or not Vancouver is a 'good deal' compared to other places is a whole other discussion. Of course it's more affordable to live elsewhere.

The point is though that five years ago in this thread we'd be looking at $500-600k condos and wondering, "who on earth is able to afford to buy these?" and now we can genuinely point to a bunch of local workers who can.

We can look at the TD Mortgage Calculator or whatever and recognize that a single person with a 100k salary can afford these sort of pricey condos, and tech companies are bringing in thousands of people to fill roles with that level of salary as a minimum.

It may still be dumb as hell to buy one of these $500k condos at pre-sale, but at least we can now say that the group of people capable of buying these things has grown beyond investors.

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 01:56 on Dec 31, 2019

# ? Dec 31, 2019 01:54

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# ? May 27, 2024 15:35

Boot and Rally: Apr 21, 2006; 8===D; Nap Ghost

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

200K income on $1.5M is 7.5x leverage, double what is considered 'affordable' by most measures. I think your suggestion there is a pretty big reach, though certainly, it'll keep some element of the condo business going. My family income is much more than that and the notion of $1.5M on what passes for a house in this town is bananas.

What measure are you talking about?

In the States the measure is housing costs are 30% of income.

# ? Dec 31, 2019 04:00

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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