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Saros posted:The US spends as much as the entire UK government budget every year on the DoD. They'll be doing the heavy lifting and as usual the UK will sail around waving the flag pretending to help while we get a bunch of light infantry (the only thing that we are actually still good at) killed doing security work. There were years in Iraq when the us marines alone got more than our entire armed forces lol (the same marines who pride themselves on "making do") ContinuityNewTimes fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Jan 4, 2020 |
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Jan 4, 2020 21:13
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Well yes, if we had enough choppers to make that feasible. We don't. We also don't really have the transport ships to get the troops there, and we don't have the capability to sequester cruise liners to do the job like we did in the Falklands. For all the pretensions of having a blue-water navy, we're somehow even less capable of force projection than we were in 1982, and this time we're talking about fighting an actual modern force that is up for the fight. The best asset that Iran has is it's geography, it's a pain in the arse to invade, to be able to establish a bridgehead or beachhead force would be a logistical and diplomatic nightmare along with being incredibly obvious to everyone. It's not as though you could build a force ala Desert Shield or Telic in a friendly'ish country, if anything it's just going to be a poo poo load airstrike on key infrastructure, Iran as a country can't really hit American interests outside of doing it via proxies.
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Jan 4, 2020 21:17
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I hope they shoot down the entire RAF.
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Jan 4, 2020 21:24
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OwlFancier posted:I hope they shoot down the entire RAF. Does Iran have three missiles??
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Jan 4, 2020 21:26
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At least I'll be old enough to annoy people in pubs about this war
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Jan 4, 2020 21:28
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There's a legit non-zero chance Iran wins a war through attrition and while it would be awful it would also be extremely funny
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Jan 4, 2020 21:42
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Saros posted:The US spends as much as the entire UK government budget every year on the DoD. They'll be doing the heavy lifting and as usual the UK will sail around waving the flag pretending to help while we get a bunch of light infantry (the only thing that we are actually still good at) killed doing security work. Indeed, but it always needs pointing out that despite spending a larger proportion of our GDP on defence than we were in the days of Empire we have less actual military capability than we did when the Romans came over. At least then we could project force into Gaul (which is why they came over).
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Jan 4, 2020 21:43
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ThomasPaine posted:There's a legit non-zero chance Iran wins a war through attrition and while it would be awful it would also be extremely funny We'd be out of a war of attrition after a week when all our artisan hand crafted mbts and expensive American jets break down
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Jan 4, 2020 21:46
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MonkeyLibFront posted:The best asset that Iran has is it's geography, it's a pain in the arse to invade, to be able to establish a bridgehead or beachhead force would be a logistical and diplomatic nightmare along with being incredibly obvious to everyone. It's not as though you could build a force ala Desert Shield or Telic in a friendly'ish country, if anything it's just going to be a poo poo load airstrike on key infrastructure, Iran as a country can't really hit American interests outside of doing it via proxies. It could shut down 15% of the world's oil production capability and seriously gently caress with a lot more without lifting a finger, which would definitely be hitting America's interests. As to invasion points - you sure as hell could build up massive forces on three sides of it (Afghanistan to the east, Iraq to the southwest, and Turkey to the west - there's a reason Iran has become a *lot* more beligerent since 2003), but that still leaves you with hundreds of miles of mountains to cross.
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Jan 4, 2020 21:52
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ThomasPaine posted:There's a legit non-zero chance Iran wins a war through attrition and while it would be awful it would also be extremely funny If by "non-zero" you mean "more-or-less 100%" if they attempt an actual invasion, you're right. The entire country is basically set up for ambushes and asymmetric warfare. All the Clancy-wank of the last few pages aside, even Pompeo and Bolton aren't dumb enough to actually take a swing at Iran that way. They'll just lob billions of dollars of "smart" munitions at them from a safe distance (and even then that's doubtful because they'll literally be giving the Russians a chance to try out every toy in their anti-air armoury and improve them - the Yanks are already scared enough of the S-400 that they won't let manned flights within a hundred miles of Syria) and claim Mission Accomplished when everyone's been able to wet their beak sufficiently.
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Jan 4, 2020 21:57
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goddamnedtwisto posted:It could shut down 15% of the world's oil production capability and seriously gently caress with a lot more without lifting a finger, which would definitely be hitting America's interests. Darn sure they could cripple the world wide web too. Just found this: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/03/iran-retaliation-qassem-soleimani-093608 Iran’s retaliation could be hacking, not bombs quote:... Jaeluni Asjil fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Jan 4, 2020 |
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Jan 4, 2020 21:58
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I'd love to see the Airbridge to Afghanistan that carries in all those MBT and AFVs, having an invasion force of similar sizes to both GW 1&2 be stationed in Iraq would be fun, just sitting there conducting prelim moves and dry run exercises, I get that there's a lot of desert but that supply train would be incredibly vulnerable and that's even if Iraq or turkey would authorise it.
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Jan 4, 2020 22:00
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Also probably kill most of the population of saudia arabia.
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Jan 4, 2020 22:01
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OwlFancier posted:Also probably kill most of the population of saudia arabia. American foreign policy considers the population of Saudi Arabia to be about 300 people so I don't really think they'd care.
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Jan 4, 2020 22:11
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Cool cool cool glad this was uncovered in time https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1213059714252247040?s=19
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Jan 4, 2020 22:14
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:Darn sure they could cripple the world wide web too. Eh, probably not. Individual bits of it, sure, but not for long. The nearest they could get would be if they'd identified a hitherto-unknown flaw either in a widely-used bit of network kit (not impossible but *extremely* unlikely) or in something like AWS or another of the large shared services platforms (slightly more likely, but rather easier to mitigate). In either case you're talking a couple of days of unreliable service, although given the sheer idiocy of the setup of a lot of internet-connected businesses that might have all sorts of interesting economic knock-on effects. Now if they've got submersibles and wirecutters, they could potentially cause a lot more damage, at least to South and Southeast Asian countries - FLAG and all the other big undersea cables run through their neighbourhood.
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Jan 4, 2020 22:18
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Eh, probably not. Individual bits of it, sure, but not for long. The nearest they could get would be if they'd identified a hitherto-unknown flaw either in a widely-used bit of network kit (not impossible but *extremely* unlikely) or in something like AWS or another of the large shared services platforms (slightly more likely, but rather easier to mitigate). In either case you're talking a couple of days of unreliable service, although given the sheer idiocy of the setup of a lot of internet-connected businesses that might have all sorts of interesting economic knock-on effects. Knock out the mediterranean cables (if they snuck in there) and you've cut off huge swathes of Africa, Middle East, parts of India. Happened twice while I lived out there when cables got ripped up by fishing trawlers, took several days for service to resume. At some point during the Egyptian revolution scuba divers trying to cut the cables off the coast of Alexandria were caught. (Mind you the second time, Etisalat routed us through some fantastic connection only normally available to 'private' customers and I've never had such fast internet for a few days before the usual snail returned).
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Jan 4, 2020 22:25
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Boris sending off a bunch of soldiers who love him and hate Corbyn to die in a meatgrinder is a good reward for them
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Jan 4, 2020 22:32
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Submarine internet cables: https://www.submarinecablemap.com/ Slight change of subject: Coincidentally, Iran announced the discovery of a huge new oilfield in November. quote:Iran has discovered a new oil field containing 53 billion barrels of crude, President Hassan Rouhani said Sunday, a find that would increase Iran's proven reserves by over a third. source: https://ph.news.yahoo.com/iran-says-oil-field-found-53-bln-barrels-093337423.html Jaeluni Asjil fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Jan 4, 2020 |
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Jan 4, 2020 22:34
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Trying to run an authoritarian state but you have cut all the spies, police and soldiers
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Jan 4, 2020 22:37
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https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1213466652299481088?s=20
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Jan 4, 2020 22:46
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Wtf does 'crank' even mean
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Jan 4, 2020 22:54
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ThomasPaine posted:Wtf does 'crank' even mean Obviously you're not a Resident Evil fan
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Jan 4, 2020 22:56
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ThomasPaine posted:Wtf does 'crank' even mean Crackpot, conspiracy theorist, part of the lunatic fringe
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Jan 4, 2020 22:58
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ThomasPaine posted:Wtf does 'crank' even mean Never hear of the word before? Strange. Its as in 'nutter'. A crank caller is a long ago created term for someone who calls into a radio show to troll or spout bizzare stuff.
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Jan 4, 2020 22:59
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It means jason statham is going to do a load of epinephrine and kill you.
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Jan 4, 2020 23:02
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happyhippy posted:Never hear of the word before? Strange. I thought it meant someone who called people on the telephone as a joke to gently caress with them
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Jan 4, 2020 23:03
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Venomous posted:I thought it meant someone who called people on the telephone as a joke to gently caress with them Yeah it is too. Prank caller evolved into crank caller according to a google search. Maybe the crank version is a TV/Radio term.
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Jan 4, 2020 23:07
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:Knock out the mediterranean cables (if they snuck in there) and you've cut off huge swathes of Africa, Middle East, parts of India. Happened twice while I lived out there when cables got ripped up by fishing trawlers, took several days for service to resume. At some point during the Egyptian revolution scuba divers trying to cut the cables off the coast of Alexandria were caught. Like I say those cables then go straight through the Gulf of Oman on their way to landings in India - wouldn't have a huge amount of effect on the UK or US, would be irritating for Japan and Korea, but would completely gently caress everyone from Pakistan to New Zealand. Now if they could somehow smuggle the submersibles out into the middle of the Atlantic poo poo would get real loving *quick*. Those cables at Alexandria are uniquely vulnerable because of the geography (oceanography?) of the area compounded by the fact that it's the only possible cable route from Europe to the Indian Ocean and about the only place in the world where the main cable routes pass so close to an active harbour - it's been a hotspot for breaks since the original telegraph cables were laid that way. Of course this also means the cables get fixed pretty quickly, there's a shitload of specialist equipment and people posted there just waiting for it to happen. On the more general note, compare this (early 20th century) map:  to the one you posted - there's surprisingly few ways of connecting up the places that need connecting up even with an apparently massive ocean.
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Jan 4, 2020 23:08
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ThomasPaine posted:Wtf does 'crank' even mean  OwlFancier posted:It means jason statham is going to do a load of epinephrine and kill you.
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Jan 4, 2020 23:10
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She was a Blair adviser and absolutely hates the left
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Jan 4, 2020 23:10
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Why do all these big-bang reformers seem to crop up in Education? Barber, Cummings... Starmer has thrown his name into the ring, by the by. ronya fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Jan 4, 2020 |
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Jan 4, 2020 23:27
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Criticising Jessflaps is antisemitism
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Jan 4, 2020 23:28
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why is it anti-semitic to dislike jess phillips, who is not a jew
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Jan 4, 2020 23:41
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Everything I don't like is
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Jan 4, 2020 23:41
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MonkeyLibFront posted:I'd love to see the Airbridge to Afghanistan... Read that as Ambridge to Afghanistan, and thought The Archers was going in a very different direction.
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Jan 4, 2020 23:44
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It's a shame, she always seemed quite funny on Reasons to be Cheerful. She was in with Ed during his time as leader, and he seems broadly sympathetic to the left. Their post-election podcast had some decent analysis, hopefully they don't poo poo the bed once the leadership contest gets really underway.
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Jan 4, 2020 23:46
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Hahahahaaaa
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Jan 4, 2020 23:55
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GordonTheDeadFish posted:It's a shame, she always seemed quite funny on Reasons to be Cheerful. She was in with Ed during his time as leader, and he seems broadly sympathetic to the left. Their post-election podcast had some decent analysis, hopefully they don't poo poo the bed once the leadership contest gets really underway. how much it will poo poo the bed depends on how well RLB does in the polls the blairites will lose their poo poo if it starts looking like she will win
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Jan 4, 2020 23:58
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GordonTheDeadFish posted:It's a shame, she always seemed quite funny on Reasons to be Cheerful. She was in with Ed during his time as leader, and he seems broadly sympathetic to the left. Their post-election podcast had some decent analysis, hopefully they don't poo poo the bed once the leadership contest gets really underway. Oh was she involved with that? I saw a couple of those podcasts and quite enjoyed them. Why she has made such an asinine and derogatory comment I do not know.
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Jan 4, 2020 23:59
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