|
Pander posted:Is there a rule against campaigns commissioning polls? I don't see a reason not to if you have enough money but not enough qualifying polls. The DNC has a strict list of who they accept polls from and a campaign paying for them wouldn't be accepted. Also campaigns do tons of polling but it's generally all internal and not publicized because there's no reason to help your opponents out with polling data you paid for.
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 03:41
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 00:01 |
|
|
Pander posted:Is there a rule against campaigns commissioning polls? I don't see a reason not to if you have enough money but not enough qualifying polls. Campaigns can obviously commission polls. What does that have to do with my post?
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 03:42
|
|
|
The real answer is that most of the local papers that used to commission local polls have all been bought up by hedge funds that turned them into content mills making GBS threads out centrally produced, national news
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 03:48
|
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:the little engine that could is pro-capitalist propaganda, encouraging workers to overexert themselves for the benefit of their masters The Little Engine That Could absolutely represents the indomitable spirit of Juche.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 03:48
|
|
|
Shbobdb posted:The Little Engine That Could absolutely represents the indomitable spirit of Juche. I misread this as “The Little Empire That Could,” but it seems really appropriate.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 04:34
|
|
|
Pander posted:Is there a rule against campaigns commissioning polls? I don't see a reason not to if you have enough money but not enough qualifying polls. They can, and do for internal reasons but the party says ahead of time which polls will and will not count.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 04:42
|
|
|
"This is a battle for the soul of the nation," says man with no soul whatsoever.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 06:41
|
|
|
Pander posted:Is there a rule against campaigns commissioning polls? I don't see a reason not to if you have enough money but not enough qualifying polls. Campaigns have hundreds if not thousands of volunteers canvassing for them. Not exactly equivalent to polling but they should have a pretty good idea where their support lies.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 06:42
|
|
|
I wish they’d make the requirements higher. It’s a waste of time to hear from the likes of Andrew Yang or Tulsi Gabbard at this stage. Hell, it’s probably a waste of time to hear from Amy Klobuchar.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 07:46
|
|
|
My Twitter Account posted:"This is a battle for the soul of the nation," says man with no soul whatsoever. A battle between whom, according to Joe? Because, to him, republicans are A-ok are we should work with them and make them Vice Presidents.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 08:10
|
|
|
Ogmius815 posted:I wish they’d make the requirements higher. It’s a waste of time to hear from the likes of Andrew Yang or Tulsi Gabbard at this stage. Hell, it’s probably a waste of time to hear from Amy Klobuchar. Honestly I'm fine with Andrew Yang being on stage just because him getting stage presence helps raise public awareness of UBI programs and sometimes he raises good points about issues with automation that other politicians tend to avoid discussing.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 08:19
|
|
|
CubanMissile posted:A battle between whom, according to Joe? Because, to him, republicans are A-ok are we should work with them and make them Vice Presidents.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 08:22
|
|
|
CubanMissile posted:A battle between whom, according to Joe? Because, to him, republicans are A-ok are we should work with them and make them Vice Presidents. His argument is that Trump is a bizarre aberration. It's a pretty dumb argument.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 09:09
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:His argument is that Trump is a bizarre aberration. It's a pretty dumb argument. Yeah, his argument is the whole 'And then the spell will be lifted and the Reasonable Moderate Republicans will come riding over the hill to our rescue' story arc that the senile Democrat establishment masturbates to.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 09:22
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/SSanchezTV/status/1213845156539064322 polllllls
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 16:34
|
|
|
Let's loving go.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 16:38
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1213855262278389760 Feel the Klomentum!
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:17
|
|
|
President Klobberin Time will fly to Iran on a C-5 loaded with staplers and binders and take care of this whole thing herself! 😍😍😍
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:25
|
|
|
I think Sanders can win it but even if he doesn't he's still in a good position to take the other primaries. If Biden comes in 2nd or 3rd his entire campaign is toast.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:25
|
|
|
Oh my loving God. If Bernie wins Iowa this whole thing might be over. Biden will have lost the momentum and the narrative of electability. DaveWoo posted:https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1213855262278389760 Edit: can someone with poll literacy find out if landlines were used for getting this info?
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:26
|
|
|
Son of Thunderbeast posted:President Klobberin Time will fly to Iran on a C-5 loaded with staplers and binders and take care of this whole thing herself! 😍😍😍 I think we'd all be cool if we just sent our president to duel it out to settle wars, instead of spending trillions on lovely weapons
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:27
|
|
|
Mat Cauthon posted:I think Sanders can win it but even if he doesn't he's still in a good position to take the other primaries. If Biden comes in 2nd or 3rd his entire campaign is toast. biden basically conceded losing ia earlier in the campaign, suggesting his strength in sc & super tuesday states is enough to carry him. if he can win ia, a state he has no business doing well in, he is probably going to win the nomination. doing 2nd or 3rd is fine
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:28
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:biden basically conceded losing ia earlier in the campaign, suggesting his strength in sc & super tuesday states is enough to carry him. if he can win ia, a state he has no business doing well in, he is probably going to win the nomination. doing 2nd or 3rd is fine Ah yes President Giuliani's brilliant unorthodox strategy, but will it work a second time?
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:33
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:biden basically conceded losing ia earlier in the campaign, suggesting his strength in sc & super tuesday states is enough to carry him. if he can win ia, a state he has no business doing well in, he is probably going to win the nomination. doing 2nd or 3rd is fine The "best candidate for defeating donald trump" failing to win a historically purple state in the primary isn't something he can realistically tell people to plan for. It would result in a seismic restructuring of the race *exactly as happened in 2008* when Obama winning Iowa led to an overnight 20-point rejiggering in the polls in his direction. Biden losing Iowa costs him every state before ST except SC, and even that will probably turn from a blowout to a squeaker. He'd be done, his dollar spigot turned off, and his staff looking to join other campaigns.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:36
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:Ah yes President Giuliani's brilliant unorthodox strategy, but will it work a second time? it's definitely not the world's greatest strategy, especially since sc is absolutely worthless as far as early states go - it votes on the saturday prior to super tuesday, and a huge number of voters will have already cast their ballots by then. meanwhile, he will endure headlines like "why is biden losing, what went wrong" for a month straight edit: although there is another historical precedent - clinton did not win a single state in 1992 until march, when he won georgia. but he overperformed expectations in nh to the degree that the press took his campaign seriously again Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 17:41 on Jan 5, 2020 |
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:36
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:it's definitely not the world's greatest strategy, especially since sc is absolutely worthless as far as early states go - it votes on the saturday prior to super tuesday, and a huge number of voters will have already cast their ballots by then. meanwhile, he will endure headlines like "why is biden losing, what went wrong" for a month straight It's not a plan at all, it's goalpost shifting. Biden was supposed to win Iowa. He's just done his level best to flub it away, just like he'd flub away a win in the general. He never should have needed to preface Iowa with a potential concession.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:40
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:biden basically conceded losing ia earlier in the campaign, suggesting his strength in sc & super tuesday states is enough to carry him. if he can win ia, a state he has no business doing well in, he is probably going to win the nomination. doing 2nd or 3rd is fine If Biden comes in 2nd then the narrative of Biden being the most "electable" candidate collapses. If Biden comes in 3rd (behind Sanders and Buttigieg) then the donors will abandon him for the younger, more polished version with less baggage and a working brain. What else does he have? Biden's team can try and sell the narrative that he doesn't need Iowa but that's not how reality works. Without early victories he's just that guy with two failed campaigns that keeps embarrassing himself on the trail. Yeah some older voters will stick with him on the basis of name recognition and the Obama association but even that base will be eroded by constant coverage (negative for him, positive for the winners). Also if Biden isn't the candidate ascendant I guarantee we start hearing more about Obama not wanting him to run, Hunter's shenanigans, etc.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:42
|
|
|
Cpt_Obvious posted:Oh my loving God. If Bernie wins Iowa this whole thing might be over. Biden will have lost the momentum and the narrative of electability. YouGov uses entirely online panels and contacts their respondents via email. If there are any polling biases they aren't due to phone choice. Here's the full results link.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:43
|
|
|
Cpt_Obvious posted:Oh my loving God. If Bernie wins Iowa this whole thing might be over. Biden will have lost the momentum and the narrative of electability. All polls are conducted by people who are willing to answer phone numbers they don’t recognize and talk to a strange person for an extended period of time.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:43
|
|
|
DaveWoo posted:https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1213855262278389760 I truly don't understand the obsession the media has for her.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:45
|
|
|
Mat Cauthon posted:If Biden comes in 2nd then the narrative of Biden being the most "electable" candidate collapses. If Biden comes in 3rd (behind Sanders and Buttigieg) then the donors will abandon him for the younger, more polished version with less baggage and a working brain. What else does he have? i think biden would have trouble surviving getting blown out in iowa. coming in 2nd or a relatively near 3rd (i.e. the placement doesn't matter if he gets like 12%) is not that bad for him. the electability candidate doesn't need to win every state, because they usually do not. iowa changes the race but it's not going to end the campaign of a candidate who is not staking that much on it.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:47
|
|
|
spunkshui posted:All polls are conducted by people who are willing to answer phone numbers they don’t recognize and talk to a strange person for an extended period of time. That's why likely voter weighting accounts for insanity.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:48
|
|
|
1glitch0 posted:I truly don't understand the obsession the media has for her. the midwest is quaint.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:48
|
|
|
spunkshui posted:All polls are conducted by people who are willing to answer phone numbers they don’t recognize and talk to a strange person for an extended period of time. In this case it's not people willing to answer phone numbers they don't recognize, it's people who self-selected to receive and answer polls via email so they can get entered into prize drawings. Is it a bad methodology? Probably, who knows! Some interesting data here:     Big takeaways are that Biden is still seen as the "safe" choice, Bernie voters are the most enthused by a long shot, and Bernie has significantly closed the gap on the "electability" narrative in the places he's been actively campaigning. Edit: Instead of landline vs cell phone, email polls should report how many respondents used an AOL or Yahoo email address. Wicked Them Beats fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jan 5, 2020 |
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:50
|
|
|
Wicked Them Beats posted:Edit: Instead of landline vs cell phone, email polls should report how many respondents used an AOL or Yahoo email address. What about Hotmail?
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:53
|
|
|
1glitch0 posted:I truly don't understand the obsession the media has for her. They think "being from the Midwest" means "appeals to the Midwest" and she's another Not-Bernie to fawn over for a month.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:56
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:i think biden would have trouble surviving getting blown out in iowa. coming in 2nd or a relatively near 3rd (i.e. the placement doesn't matter if he gets like 12%) is not that bad for him. the electability candidate doesn't need to win every state, because they usually do not. iowa changes the race but it's not going to end the campaign of a candidate who is not staking that much on it. Again, the assertion of the Biden campaign that Iowa does not matter all that much because they aren't invested in winning it doesn't mean anything to anyone outside the Biden campaign. Saying "well it doesn't matter that I got my rear end kicked because I wasn't even fighting that hard" after you lose is not some noble stance. If he's the fighting candidate who can take it to Trump and win then why can't he take Iowa, even if it's not a priority for him? It sounds bad just typing it out in a couple of sentences. Imagine what actual news coverage will say.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:58
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:They think "being from the Midwest" means "appeals to the Midwest" and she's another Not-Bernie to fawn over for a month. But no one knows who she is! I get the media wants to get a rightwinger in, but no one knows who she is! Why not Buttigieg? This whole "she's up to 7% it's happening!!!" seems so weird to me.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:58
|
|
|
Mat Cauthon posted:If Biden comes in 2nd then the narrative of Biden being the most "electable" candidate collapses. If Biden comes in 3rd (behind Sanders and Buttigieg) then the donors will abandon him for the younger, more polished version with less baggage and a working brain. What else does he have? Clinton was supposed to be the electable candidate, Sanders tied in Iowa and won in NH, and she still comfortably won the nomination.
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 17:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 00:01 |
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:i think biden would have trouble surviving getting blown out in iowa. coming in 2nd or a relatively near 3rd (i.e. the placement doesn't matter if he gets like 12%) is not that bad for him. the electability candidate doesn't need to win every state, because they usually do not. iowa changes the race but it's not going to end the campaign of a candidate who is not staking that much on it. How about losing Iowa, nh, and Arizona in a row, which if Sanders wins Iowa, would likely be by increasing deficits (and he's been catching up in SC which could end up close)
|
|
#
?
Jan 5, 2020 18:03
|
|
