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Mat Cauthon
Jan 2, 2006

The more tragic things get,
the more I feel like laughing.



https://twitter.com/hodakatebi/status/1213884280239087616?s=19

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Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Oh boy :piss:

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Executive Order 9066 already? that was quick.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Inevitable really:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1213885910024151041

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Aggro posted:

Tweets like these remind me how little I understand the governments of the Middle East. I was under the impression that parliament and the president of Iran are more or less props to make the country appear democratic while being ruled by a Supreme Leader. Like, parliament doesn’t have to approve poo poo if Khamenei declares the agreement is null.

in addition to iraq != iran, the iranian parliament can do a lot of stuff as long as Khamenei doesn't veto it

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Great, now Bibi can go to UN with his bomb drawing again!

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Can't argue with that. Trump has demonstrated exactly why Iran needs nuclear weapons.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012


Reminder that it is next to impossible to renounce Iranian citizenship conferred on you if you where born in Iran or if your father was born in Iran

mystes
May 31, 2006

kustomkarkommando posted:

Reminder that it is next to impossible to renounce Iranian citizenship conferred on you if you where born in Iran or if your father was born in Iran
It says "Iranian-Americans" and I don't think they really care whether they have Iranian citizenship or not in the first place (ask Japanese-Americans how well that worked out for them during WW2).

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

Cat Mattress posted:

But yeah, these guys totally have it in the bag, they have a fair and accurate understanding of the situation, that's why they've managed to win Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria so decisively.
Afghanistan: two months to overwhelming coalition victory.
Iraq: a bit over a month to overwhelming coalition victory.
Syria doesn't really apply here because the U.S. hasn't launched a full-scale invasion of the country with the intent of defeating the military and toppling the government.

The U.S. military is really, really good at defeating traditional armies and toppling states. It's just pretty poo poo at dealing with the insurgencies that come after, not that that is really a manageable problem to begin with. A war with Iran would be more costly than Iraq or Afghanistan both in casualties and $$$, but you are insane if you think the Iranian army is going to defeat an American invasion outright.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Thinking about stuff like this in terms of "which side would win" is the whole problem.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

Afghanistan: two months to overwhelming coalition victory.
Iraq: a bit over a month to overwhelming coalition victory.
Syria doesn't really apply here because the U.S. hasn't launched a full-scale invasion of the country with the intent of defeating the military and toppling the government.

The U.S. military is really, really good at defeating traditional armies and toppling states. It's just pretty poo poo at dealing with the insurgencies that come after, not that that is really a manageable problem to begin with. A war with Iran would be more costly than Iraq or Afghanistan both in casualties and $$$, but you are insane if you think the Iranian army is going to defeat an American invasion outright.

they will lose but they will fight for ever house on every street. this isnt the iraqi army and sectarian divided country. most of the Iranians would rally behind the flag and it would cost the US a gently caress ton to just take a city. i dont think american populous is willing to sacrifice than many of their sons and daughters for some bullshit hell war so donny can feel like he has a big penis.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Amazing it took this long since Trumps been pissing on the ashes of that deal since he entered office.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

Afghanistan: two months to overwhelming coalition victory.
Iraq: a bit over a month to overwhelming coalition victory.
Syria doesn't really apply here because the U.S. hasn't launched a full-scale invasion of the country with the intent of defeating the military and toppling the government.

The U.S. military is really, really good at defeating traditional armies and toppling states. It's just pretty poo poo at dealing with the insurgencies that come after, not that that is really a manageable problem to begin with. A war with Iran would be more costly than Iraq or Afghanistan both in casualties and $$$, but you are insane if you think the Iranian army is going to defeat an American invasion outright.

it is one of the only places on Earth where that's a genuine question, though. if we could work up the will to full mobilization? Sure. We'd cream them. if we didn't put a single soldier anywhere near them, could we still level most of the country? Sure.

but getting men to the Iranian border, and getting them supplied, involves an awful lot of travel over territory we do not and for the foreseeable future cannot control. which is why we have not done it. and why we invaded Iraq in the first place, to make it more possible to do that.

we cataclysmically failed at step one of this plan. jumping straight to step two regardless of that is one of the very few configurations where the US straight loses a war.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

mystes posted:

Thinking about stuff like this in terms of "which side would win" is the whole problem.
We're strictly speaking about whether the Iran or U.S. army would prevail in an invasion. For obvious reasons, defeating an army and toppling a government doesn't qualify as winning a war in the long run.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


https://twitter.com/prof_gabriele/status/1213907683906146306

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
https://twitter.com/kathrynw5/status/1213847844622340100?s=21

lol goddamn

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

Btw, it seems that the 26th MEU is on its way to the Middle east.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/01/04/thousands-marines-head-middle-east-navy-ship-iran-pledges-retaliation.html

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

Afghanistan: two months to overwhelming coalition victory.
Iraq: a bit over a month to overwhelming coalition victory.

Afghanistan: Talibans are back in charge except for the areas where it's Daesh.
Iraq: country is now an Iranian puppet state.

There's more to victory than just getting boots inside a palace in the capital city. The US military is very good at getting its boots in palaces, but it's extremely bad at achieving victory. I don't think they could even tell you what victory is supposed to be.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

Cat Mattress posted:

Afghanistan: Talibans are back in charge except for the areas where it's Daesh.
Iraq: country is now an Iranian puppet state.

There's more to victory than just getting boots inside a palace in the capital city. The US military is very good at getting its boots in palaces, but it's extremely bad at achieving victory. I don't think they could even tell you what victory is supposed to be.
Yeah no poo poo, did you read the rest of the post before you cut it out of your quote?

Kindest Forums User
Mar 25, 2008

Let me tell you about my opinion about Bernie Sanders and why Donald Trump is his true successor.

You cannot vote Hillary Clinton because she is worse than Trump.

https://twitter.com/iscribe/status/1213858248702545920


What the gently caress is wrong with people's brains. I swear every Iran tweet has at least some hosed up centrist quipping about Russia being the real baddies.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Kindest Forums User posted:

https://twitter.com/iscribe/status/1213858248702545920


What the gently caress is wrong with people's brains. I swear every Iran tweet has at least some hosed up centrist quipping about Russia being the real baddies.

because they are idiots.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

Afghanistan: two months to overwhelming coalition victory.
Iraq: a bit over a month to overwhelming coalition victory.
Syria doesn't really apply here because the U.S. hasn't launched a full-scale invasion of the country with the intent of defeating the military and toppling the government.

The U.S. military is really, really good at defeating traditional armies and toppling states. It's just pretty poo poo at dealing with the insurgencies that come after, not that that is really a manageable problem to begin with. A war with Iran would be more costly than Iraq or Afghanistan both in casualties and $$$, but you are insane if you think the Iranian army is going to defeat an American invasion outright.

Who even gives half of a poo poo about any of this? Seriously, why exactly is quibbling over who'd win the first battle in a war of any interest when what we should focus on is the outcome of the war itself?

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213919480574812160

welp. if poo poo happens. it will be declared on twitter.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Cerebral Bore posted:

Who even gives half of a poo poo about any of this? Seriously, why exactly is quibbling over who'd win the first battle in a war of any interest when what we should focus on is the outcome of the war itself?

If you're the Iranian leadership, knowing the eventual outcome will be inconvenient for the US too if you get toppled by them probably isn't as reassuring as they'd like.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Dapper_Swindler posted:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213919480574812160

welp. if poo poo happens. it will be declared on twitter.
"A Murder Is Announced On Twitter," everyone's favorite Agatha Christie story.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Cerebral Bore posted:

Who even gives half of a poo poo about any of this? Seriously, why exactly is quibbling over who'd win the first battle in a war of any interest when what we should focus on is the outcome of the war itself?

It's entirely possible that the US could outright fail to topple the Iranian leadership in a conventional war like the North Vietnamese.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Cat Mattress posted:

Afghanistan: Talibans are back in charge except for the areas where it's Daesh.
Iraq: country is now an Iranian puppet state.

There's more to victory than just getting boots inside a palace in the capital city. The US military is very good at getting its boots in palaces, but it's extremely bad at achieving victory. I don't think they could even tell you what victory is supposed to be.

Yeah and as pointed out earlier Iran is not Afghanistan. Iran has a rich history dating back thousands of years. America will never occupy Iran. The populace will never fall in line.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Sinteres posted:

If you're the Iranian leadership, knowing the eventual outcome will be inconvenient for the US too if you get toppled by them probably isn't as reassuring as they'd like.

Iran is one of the easiest countries in the world to hide in and the US invasion would fall apart the moment they actually try to occupy the country instead of just blowing poo poo up, so I don't think the Iranian leadership need to be too worried about their personal safety even if they lost the first battle.

Raenir Salazar posted:

It's entirely possible that the US could outright fail to topple the Iranian leadership in a conventional war like the North Vietnamese.

There's that too, but in this scenario the outcome of the first battle is even more irrelevant.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

Afghanistan: two months to overwhelming coalition victory.
Iraq: a bit over a month to overwhelming coalition victory.

When I think about these wars the first thing that pops into my mind "overwhelming US victory", because I, too, have brain damage.

gh0stpinballa
Mar 5, 2019

mystes posted:

Thinking about stuff like this in terms of "which side would win" is the whole problem.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

Orange Devil posted:

When I think about these wars the first thing that pops into my mind "overwhelming US victory", because I, too, have brain damage.
I, too, deliberately do not read posts so I can pretend there are actual neoconservatives I can argue with on the Something Awful Forums.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

I, too, deliberately do not read posts so I can pretend there are actual neoconservatives I can argue with on the Something Awful Forums.

How long will it take to capture Tehran? 2 days
Will Khamenei be killed? Yes
Total Iranian civillian casualties: 500 dead
Total military casualties Iran: 3000 dead
Total military casualties U.S.: 15 dead
Will the Iranian army regulars hold the lines? No
Will the Revolutionary Guard fight to the end? No
Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes
Will Khamenei launch attacks on the Kurds? Yes
Will Hezbollah launch attacks on Israel? No
-If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes
Will Khamenei sacrifice Tehran (gas/nuke it)? No
Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes
Will Iraq do anything silly like try for land? Yes
Will Khamenei burn the oil fields? Yes
How long will the US be occupying Iran? ~15 years
Will the Iran war catalyze increased terrorism in America?No
In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good

TK-42-1
Oct 30, 2013

looks like we have a bad transmitter



OctaMurk posted:

In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good
source your quotes

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

OctaMurk posted:

How long will it take to capture Tehran? 2 days
Will Khamenei be killed? Yes
Total Iranian civillian casualties: 500 dead
Total military casualties Iran: 3000 dead
Total military casualties U.S.: 15 dead
Will the Iranian army regulars hold the lines? No
Will the Revolutionary Guard fight to the end? No
Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes
Will Khamenei launch attacks on the Kurds? Yes
Will Hezbollah launch attacks on Israel? No
-If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes
Will Khamenei sacrifice Tehran (gas/nuke it)? No
Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes
Will Iraq do anything silly like try for land? Yes
Will Khamenei burn the oil fields? Yes
How long will the US be occupying Iran? ~15 years
Will the Iran war catalyze increased terrorism in America?No
In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good

Some dude already posted his grover-esque list like 200 posts ago, it was a doozy, too

WorldsStongestNerd
Apr 28, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
Just for fun let me make some adjustments.

OctaMurk posted:

How long will it take to capture Tehran? 600 days
Will Khamenei be killed? Yes
Total Iranian civillian casualties: 5000000 dead
Total military casualties Iran: 450000 dead
Total military casualties U.S.: 150000 dead
Will the Iranian army regulars hold the lines? yes
Will the Revolutionary Guard fight to the end? yes
Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes
Will Khamenei launch attacks on the Kurds? no
Will Hezbollah launch attacks on Israel? yes
-If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes
Will Khamenei sacrifice Tehran (gas/nuke it)? No
Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes
Will Iraq do anything silly like try for land? no
Will Khamenei burn the oil fields? Yes
How long will the US be occupying Iran? ~35 years
Will the Iran war catalyze increased terrorism in America?yes
In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? bad

My non sarcastic revision.
Just to be clear I know octomurk doesn't think Iran will be a cakewalk.

WorldsStongestNerd fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Jan 6, 2020

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
Also if he's actually loving over Iranian Americans that's a big deal as that's a group that skews pretty drat conservative and who have largely been extremely opposed to the Islamic republic for decades.

If nothing else you're meant to wait until you've hired as many translators as possible before pissing them off and persecuting all of them.

Kawasaki Nun
Jul 16, 2001

by Reene

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Also if he's actually loving over Iranian Americans that's a big deal as that's a group that skews pretty drat conservative and who have largely been extremely opposed to the Islamic republic for decades.

If nothing else you're meant to wait until you've hired as many translators as possible before pissing them off and persecuting all of them.

Yeah again with the long term planning. Trump and co live in the now

Haramstufe Rot
Jun 24, 2016

Gonna cost a lot of money and lives even if the US bulldozes the military.
Like, too much.

As a non American, I don't get the hate for Iran. If you can be in bed with Saudi Arabia, what's to bad about Iran? I can't imagine any American seriously cares whether someone is Sunni or Shia.


Edit: Yes Iran finances terrists and poo poo, but even that is comparably mild for being the mortal enemy of the US since 1979. It feels like a schoolyard bully who has this one specific target nerd for no particular reason.

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Kawasaki Nun
Jul 16, 2001

by Reene
Stop trying to analyze American policy and political positions through the crucible if reason and everything will become clear

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