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Bardeh posted:I wonder how many people die of regular seasonal flu in Wuhan this time of year - if that number was counted up like the deaths from NuFlu it would probably ease some fears a bit. Flu is nasty poo poo, but is this flu actually nastier than normal once you strip away the hype and rolling news coverage? the normal flu doesn't put 20% of reported cases in the ICU
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Jan 30, 2020 23:03
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Bardeh posted:Isn't a hospital built in 2 weeks by sleep-deprived slaves going to be shoddy as all hell? Somewhere to keep the corpses at least I guess yes
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Jan 30, 2020 23:03
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Bardeh posted:Isn't a hospital built in 2 weeks by sleep-deprived slaves going to be shoddy as all hell? Somewhere to keep the corpses at least I guess Most definitely but it’s better than nothing and having people crammed in hallways and janitor closets which is exactly what will happen elsewhere
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Jan 30, 2020 23:08
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fr though, if you are freaking out, read the top comment of this Reddit post and their other comments below. https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/ewb1jk/coronavirus_is_declared_global_emergency_by_world/ Super informative, non-sensationalized information that tells you everything you probably want to know. VikingSkull posted:the normal flu doesn't put 20% of reported cases in the ICU I think the current working theory is that in many people the virus doesn't present with super serious symptoms, and so there may have been many infections that were never picked up, which would put that ICU number way, way lower than 20 percent of cases.
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Jan 30, 2020 23:09
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Bardeh posted:Isn't a hospital built in 2 weeks by sleep-deprived slaves going to be shoddy as all hell? Somewhere to keep the corpses at least I guess It might not be as good or comprehensive as a top tier hospital with every department and speciality, but even just having more beds for sick patients will make a difference. Major building efforts for increased capacity to treat people is probably one of the biggest things that can help in an outbreak, and it's pretty impressive how they're just straight up getting on with it
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Jan 30, 2020 23:11
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here's something fun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTt3P5V8M1A I'm guessing this is just what a virus multiplying looks like, and if there's a positive spin to be had here, it's that this novel little fellow is clearly being studied. e: feel like playing Atom Zombie Smasher
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Jan 30, 2020 23:19
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Feeling like a pheic un-a-leashed Infecting everyone I can see Leaving Wuhan on a plane Searching for vaccines all in vain, in vain
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Jan 30, 2020 23:19
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Bardeh posted:I think the current working theory is that in many people the virus doesn't present with super serious symptoms, and so there may have been many infections that were never picked up, which would put that ICU number way, way lower than 20 percent of cases. I'm going off of what's officially reported, there's also working theories that the Chinese are bulldozing corpses into crematoriums
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Jan 30, 2020 23:21
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So can they extract anti bodies from the sick and dead?
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Jan 30, 2020 23:26
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PIZZA.BAT posted:This seems to be getting updated daily: Three times a day juding by the backing data. Click on the google sheet link if you want to make your own graphs and such from it.
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Jan 30, 2020 23:28
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Shaocaholica posted:So can they extract anti bodies from the sick and dead? No. Technically if you have antibodies, you're already cured.
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Jan 30, 2020 23:30
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PIZZA.BAT posted:This seems to be getting updated daily: That's neat I going to put that up on a big screen at work.
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Jan 30, 2020 23:30
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Luckyellow posted:No. Technically if you have antibodies, you're already cured. Ok then from the cured? Technically couldn't you still die if your body made anti bodies too late?
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Jan 30, 2020 23:31
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Hubei just reported today's numbers 42 dead, 1,220 infected
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Jan 30, 2020 23:35
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Bardeh posted:I wonder how many people die of regular seasonal flu in Wuhan this time of year - if that number was counted up like the deaths from NuFlu it would probably ease some fears a bit. Flu is nasty poo poo, but is this flu actually nastier than normal once you strip away the hype and rolling news coverage? They can't say it's less nasty than the regular flu, because China's official position on the regular flu is also 'nothing to see here, China's modern healthcare makes the flu a thing of the past, <200 deaths yearly' Once we see more international cases we'll get a better idea of it.
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Jan 30, 2020 23:36
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VikingSkull posted:I'm going off of what's officially reported, there's also working theories that the Chinese are bulldozing corpses into crematoriums That seems less likely than the other working theory imo
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Jan 30, 2020 23:48
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:I've been loving these charts from the reddit (ugh) r/china_flu (ugh ugh) subreddit. I'd love to know how they are picking zero day for the Wuhan Flu. Because that would change the graph significantly
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Jan 30, 2020 23:52
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Illuminti posted:I'd love to know how they are picking zero day for the Wuhan Flu. Because that would change the graph significantly the link on their page links to this eventually, which you can read and let us know if it answer this for you https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4
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Jan 31, 2020 00:03
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Shaocaholica posted:I bet there are people who think this virus only affects chinese people and if you're not chinese the virus will skip you. I have a native Chinese coworker (now a naturalized us citizen) who genuinely believes this virus was engineered by the Chinese government to specifically genetically target the elderly Chinese population to reduce their drain on public benefits lmao Laterite fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Jan 31, 2020 |
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Jan 31, 2020 00:03
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Laterite posted:I have a native Chinese coworker (now a naturalized us citizen) who genuinely believes this virus was engineered by the Chinese government to specifically generically target the elderly Chinese population to reduce their drain on public benefits lmao
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Jan 31, 2020 00:07
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^^^ To make China great again? ^^^Laterite posted:I have a native Chinese coworker (now a naturalized us citizen) who genuinely believes this virus was engineered by the Chinese government to specifically genetically target the elderly Chinese population to reduce their drain on public benefits lmao Maybe the Japanese made it and just testing in China first. e: has a non chinese person been diagnosed?  
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Jan 31, 2020 00:13
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Shaocaholica posted:Maybe the Japanese made it and just testing in China first. wouldn't be the first time
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Jan 31, 2020 00:15
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also lol in two weeks we're supposed to have a bunch of folks from seoul fly in for a big face to face meeting. as well we'll have key stakeholders from LA and Dallas showing up. like there will literally be 100+ people sharing air in a giant conference room together. should be fun! Laterite fucked around with this message at 00:17 on Jan 31, 2020 |
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Jan 31, 2020 00:15
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Laterite posted:also lol in two weeks we're supposed to have a bunch of folks from seoul fly in for a big face to face meeting. as well we'll have key stakeholders from LA and Dallas showing up. like there will literally be 100+ people sharing air in a giant conference room together. Hand out masks.
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Jan 31, 2020 00:21
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turn up with a giant immortan joe style breathing apparatus
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Jan 31, 2020 00:46
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Peachfart posted:It's probably about the same. People don't understand risk. It's a comparable likelihood of infection (R0 of 2-3 last I saw) combined with at least an order of magnitude higher likelihood of debilitating consequences or death. And that's generous, if you take the numbers at face value then it's actually several orders of magnitude more dangerous, even if you assume that it really only effects people with compromised immune systems (which is definitely not true; if you believe the official numbers then most of the deaths have been old people, but lots of young people have still had to be hospitalized) . Clearly you are the one who does not understand risk if you think that similar likelihood and massively elevated consequence is the same risk Bardeh posted:
That's the leading theory among goons and redditors, yes. There's not much evidence to suggest that it's the most likely theory, however. Like sure, maybe the R0 is actually some crazy high number, such as 10, but then you'd expect to have already seen innumerable hospitalizations and deaths among elderly people internationally, not just in certain regions of China. This hypothesis basically necessitates that the virus discriminates by geography, which seems unlikely The overwhelming evidence, from both inside and outside of China, suggests that the risk of infection is relatively easy to manage, making it like most other coronaviruses, and that some non-negligible fraction of patients will develop viral pneumonia. It's definitely too early to say that 20% of infected patients will need hospitalization, but based on the international rate of infection (low) that may be the right ballpark
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Jan 31, 2020 02:04
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Why is there still discussion on the origin of the coronavirus? The US has already admitted to engineering it, it's a jobs program for the US:
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Jan 31, 2020 02:08
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VikingSkull posted:I'm going off of what's officially reported, there's also working theories that the Chinese are bulldozing corpses into crematoriums By working theory you mean insane conspiracy theory, to be clear.
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Jan 31, 2020 02:32
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salt shakeup posted:By working theory you mean insane conspiracy theory, to be clear. yeah, that's kinda the hyperbolic point I was making, you're correct
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Jan 31, 2020 02:34
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The looming demographic crunch in China is one of the most lopsided in the world. Lot of pretty bleak reading material about the 1 child policy that hosed up family structures for decades. The commerce secretary guy spelling out shock doctrine is uhhh exactly what you would expect from this administration lol.
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Jan 31, 2020 02:34
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I’m confused about the number of recovered being less than the number of dead. Is this due to a lack in follow up? I imagine so. Is it too much to ask for one sample of individuals to track for a period of time to get a better estimate of fatality and severe rates?
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Jan 31, 2020 02:36
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mitztronic posted:I’m confused about the number of recovered being less than the number of dead. Is this due to a lack in follow up? I imagine so. A lot of people are "sick but probably won't die (as long as they stay on a ventilator until they recover)".
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Jan 31, 2020 02:40
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"I'm not worried about the corona virus spreading to here really" Meanwhile at my local hospital: https://twitter.com/BBCNWT/status/1222938403320320001?s=19
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Jan 31, 2020 02:40
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Someone in the building across the street has it and is refusing hospitalization. And the buildings are linked by a metro station/shops where I've been getting my groceries lol Not that there are many groceries to get lately. No bread, rice, noodles, and very little produce for about 4 days now. I haven't been here during CNY before so I keep hoping that's why shelves are so empty but it's probably people stockpiling like that dude with the wall of rice. bones 4 beginners fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Jan 31, 2020 |
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Jan 31, 2020 02:47
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mitztronic posted:I’m confused about the number of recovered being less than the number of dead. Is this due to a lack in follow up? I imagine so. The incubation period alone can last up to two weeks. We don't yet have enough statistics to assess how long the average infection lasts but it's probably quite awhile At this point in time yes that is too much to ask
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Jan 31, 2020 02:52
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I am watching the hospital live stream, are the rooms container based they just lego together in the last 2 days? I don't see any problem of adding on a 2nd floor.
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Jan 31, 2020 03:02
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QuarkJets posted:The incubation period alone can last up to two weeks.
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Jan 31, 2020 03:04
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A reminder once again that the virus originated in early December as far as we can tell, possibly late November. A lot, lot, lot of people have already passed that two week threshold and it hasn't been the apocalypse yet (Well, outside China)
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Jan 31, 2020 03:32
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Fojar38 posted:A reminder once again that the virus originated in early December as far as we can tell, possibly late November. A lot, lot, lot of people have already passed that two week threshold and it hasn't been the apocalypse yet (Well, outside China) also a reminder that virtually everything we know about the origins and spread of the virus are being told to us by the People's Republic of China
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Jan 31, 2020 03:35
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Yeah! I bet it has 110% fatality rate in real life. And the bodies explode!
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Jan 31, 2020 03:38
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