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Antifa Turkeesian posted:I would be devastated if the butt took iowa or new hampshire. Is he really doing that well? I want him to lose almost as badly as I want bernie to win. I would say his ground game is very very good here and he has a LOT of support. Warren has a good ground game too but theres a lot who see her and Bernie as ideologically the same, and based on whatever they think "civility" is determines which way they go. Same for how important they feel having a woman as the nominee. It seems to be breaking largely Bernies way i think, but its a lot closer than the polling suggests in my view.
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Feb 1, 2020 17:50
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:I would be devastated if the butt took iowa or new hampshire. Is he really doing that well? I want him to lose almost as badly as I want bernie to win. He's polling well in Iowa and nowhere else, to my knowledge. It's unlikely he'd come in first in Iowa unless Biden's support has fallen much more severely than public polling shows. He stands a very good chance of winning delegates, though. Even then, if Biden's support has fallen to the point that he fails to make viability in some places, his support is roughly evenly split between Bernie, Warren, and loving Bloomberg of all people as second choices so a lot of it wouldn't go to Pete necessarily. If Biden crumbles, Bernie's the main beneficiary.
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Feb 1, 2020 17:50
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PepsiOverCoke posted:My prediction for Iowa: Bloomberg isnt even a candidate for Iowa. This feels real pulled out of your rear end and based on nothing.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:02
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Buttigieg hasn't been first in a single poll of Iowa since early December.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:03
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Nix Panicus posted:Bloomberg isnt even a candidate for Iowa. This feels real pulled out of your rear end and based on nothing. Lmao if you think that will stop people trying to push Bloomberg.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:07
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Let's just all worry about it based on an anonymous goons anecdotes, though
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Feb 1, 2020 18:07
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I'm more worried of scenarios where the first round presents only two viable candidates and Bernie loses a presinct 65/35 or some other margin only possible because a whole bunch of sour grapes flee to not-bernie when their first choice isn't viable.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:08
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exquisite tea posted:Buttigieg hasn't been first in a single poll of Iowa since early December. He could still win if like Klobuchar isn’t viable and enough of her supporters move to Butt.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:08
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Bernie’s in the top spot going into the caucuses which is why I think deliberately antagonizing libs is a bad move with no upside right now. Might turn away second round Bernie pickups.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:09
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PepsiOverCoke posted:Lmao if you think that will stop people trying to push Bloomberg. They could try, but he's not reaching viability in a caucus state let alone one he hasn't even advertised in.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:12
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Mahoning posted:He could still win if like Klobuchar isn’t viable and enough of her supporters move to Butt. This is precisely what I think will happen. I haven't met a Buttigieg supporter whose second choice is Biden, but I know a LOT who are between Bernie and Pete or Warren and Pete. I think (and super loving hope) that Biden is in for a huge disappointment in Iowa. Its why I"m so terrified of olds coming to my caucus and settling in for Biden, making him viable. IF he's viable first go round I think he wins. If he isn't, I think Pete/Bernie/Warren win. If Pete isn't viable, I see those supporters going to Bernie/Warren too, not Klob, not Biden. overmind2000 posted:They could try, but he's not reaching viability in a caucus state let alone one he hasn't even advertised in. Yeah and I think THOSE supporters do go Biden, which makes me so mad. Remember that video I posted from the NYT. The guy literally said he hadn't caucused since Kennedy and he was going for "Bloomberg or the other rich one". Big ouch on that kind of caucusing.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:17
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LOL at the US electoral system being like a sports league. No wonder you treat politics like that.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:18
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HootTheOwl posted:I'm more worried of scenarios where the first round presents only two viable candidates and Bernie loses a presinct 65/35 or some other margin only possible because a whole bunch of sour grapes flee to not-bernie when their first choice isn't viable. Be more worried about Warren hitting viability. Bernie's a popular second choice for Warren, Yang, Gabbard, and even Biden supporters. In precincts where any of them don't hit viability, their caucusers are possible pickups for Bernie. Meanwhile, Buttigieg and Klobuchar supporters tend to have Biden as their second choice. So, let's say in a precinct, three candidates are viable in the first round: Bernie, Biden, and Warren. This is a bad setup for Bernie. Warren's supporters are locked in and Buttigieg's supporters mostly go to Warren and Biden, probably making Bernie slip into third. But if instead it's Bernie, Biden, and Buttigieg who are viable in the first round, this is great for Bernie, because he picks up most of the Warren supporters and Buttigieg's are locked in to support him. But it's also not quite that simple. Non-viable candidates can band together to make one of them viable. In that first scenario (Bernie, Biden, and Warren viable) it's possible that Buttigieg's caucusers are able to convince Klobuchar supporters to go to them instead of teaming up to go to Biden, which could net Buttigieg a delegate and then have it split four ways rather than handing anyone a clear victory. What I'm saying is that caucuses are loving wild and as much as I'm prone to arzy over their outcomes, the fact is we really can't predict how it'll go.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:21
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Honj Steak posted:LOL at the US electoral system being like a sports league. No wonder you treat politics like that. Proto political parties got their start in the Roman Empire as fan clubs of specific chariot racing teams. Our system sucks, but you can go gently caress yourself for looking down your nose. Human politics in general is stupid, dirty, and more important than anything else.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:22
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I think gaming out what might happen based on a few conversations you've had is unlikely to have much predictive power. Donate or volunteer or both but "what if Klob supporters go to Pete and he wins?!" seems pretty valueless worrying. Also nobody is making their second pick based on what Rashida Talib said at some forum. It's a complete non thing.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:22
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Who the hell dreamed up this dumbass system.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:22
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I predict that Buttigieg will place ahead of Biden because his campaign staff is filled with same exact type of rules lawyering pols that understand the caucus system.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:24
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exquisite tea posted:I predict that Buttigieg will place ahead of Biden because his campaign staff is filled with same exact type of rules lawyering pols that understand the caucus system. Here's hoping, because that's just the kind of embarrassment that would send Biden's numbers elsewhere into freefall.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:25
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Have any of the Iowa polls included a question about how likely people are to leave if their candidate is nonviable in the first round? I feel like that's a possibility that gets overlooked.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:29
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https://twitter.com/janestreet/status/1223658048989933568
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Feb 1, 2020 18:29
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How much do Union endorsements even mean in tyool 2020? I'm in a Union workplace and the endorsement doesn't seem to move the needle or even inspire discussion beyond either a happy or a grumpy "hm" before throwing the union newsletter in the garbage and voting for the candidate you were already going to vote for.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:30
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https://twitter.com/TPCarney/status/1223659317364187136 lol yikes what is it with this guy
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Feb 1, 2020 18:30
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How are u posted:Proto political parties got their start in the Roman Empire as fan clubs of specific chariot racing teams. Our system sucks, but you can go gently caress yourself for looking down your nose. Human politics in general is stupid, dirty, and more important than anything else. Easy there, I didn’t demean anybody. I just humorously pointed out how needlessly complicated of a system it is. No need to go mad over that!
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Feb 1, 2020 18:31
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overmind2000 posted:Have any of the Iowa polls included a question about how likely people are to leave if their candidate is nonviable in the first round? I feel like that's a possibility that gets overlooked. Yeah, though I can't find it right now. I saw it in a poll last week. The only thing I clearly remembered is that like 50% of Tulsi supporters plan to leave if she isn't viable lol
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Feb 1, 2020 18:32
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We own this party now, and we are never giving it back. They are beyond desperate. They lost.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:33
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Sir Tonk posted:https://twitter.com/TPCarney/status/1223659317364187136 LMAO i dislike BIden quite a bit but thats hilarious. Harrow posted:Be more worried about Warren hitting viability. Can you show a link with the second choice thing? What I"m seeing a lot of is Buttigieg being the second choice of almost everyone, followed by Warren. And second choices for Buttigeig were Warren or Sanders, not Biden. I will have to dig for those polls though I think they were from like November/December. The rest is anecdotal from talking to people here and gauging things like yard signs, social media discussions, etc.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:34
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:Bernie’s in the top spot going into the caucuses which is why I think deliberately antagonizing libs is a bad move with no upside right now. Might turn away second round Bernie pickups. We're gonna do it anyway and win.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:34
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Bettendorf Bobs Throb for Klobb, Biden Slobs, Butt Corncobbed
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Feb 1, 2020 18:35
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Quick question for people more active on the organizing side of activism. Where best can I stock up on clipboards/pens for volunteers to use? Here in PA the Bernie campaign isn't receiving physical stuff/funding yet so I've gotta grab a dozen clipboards/box of pens for some signature gathering. Obviously Walmart is out, but where is in?
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Feb 1, 2020 18:36
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Sir Tonk posted:https://twitter.com/TPCarney/status/1223659317364187136 Seems like something stupid they rehearsed and staged for Biden to get some zingers in, which can then trend on social media.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:36
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Are there any plans in place to keep these caucuses fair from the Bernie camp? From what I'm hearing there is going to be a lot of shenanigans going on.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:38
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Rad Russian posted:Seems like something stupid they rehearsed and staged for Biden to get some zingers in, which can then trend on social media. Very Hillary-staff like. Which is why it's appeared on every campaign they jumped ship to. https://twitter.com/dril/status/1223542342092644355?s=20 Nonsense fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Feb 1, 2020 |
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Feb 1, 2020 18:39
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:Bernie’s in the top spot going into the caucuses which is why I think deliberately antagonizing libs is a bad move with no upside right now. Might turn away second round Bernie pickups. It doesn't matter. Every time I read a take like this, it feels like I'm reading someone who's never actually interacted with voters in a context like canvasing or phone banking. Lots of people (including liberals and even conservatives!) are reachable, but the #1 red flag that you're dealing with someone useless is a desire for pandering. Someone who needs to be coddled to earn your vote is too unreliable to bother with. Given the choice between energizing your base and gaining temporary points with voters like that, you should choose to energize your base every. single. time.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:43
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Sir Tonk posted:https://twitter.com/TPCarney/status/1223659317364187136 I don't care who you are, that's funny.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:45
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:Bernie’s in the top spot going into the caucuses which is why I think deliberately antagonizing libs is a bad move with no upside right now. Might turn away second round Bernie pickups. Yeah I agree with this, now that Bernie is in a position of strength he should stop doing the things that got him there.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:45
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Paradoxish posted:Given the choice between energizing your base and gaining temporary points with voters like that, you should choose to energize your base every. single. time. But...this is the year the north atlanta burbs finally bring us georgia!
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Feb 1, 2020 18:46
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Wicked Them Beats posted:Kind of sounds like the WFP all over again. "We randomly conducted a secret poll and... hmm, the numbers? Don't worry about it." That sounds like every primary poll where even when Sanders has the most support Biden still holds on to his electability advantage.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:47
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PepsiOverCoke posted:Can you show a link with the second choice thing? What I"m seeing a lot of is Buttigieg being the second choice of almost everyone, followed by Warren. And second choices for Buttigeig were Warren or Sanders, not Biden. I will have to dig for those polls though I think they were from like November/December. The rest is anecdotal from talking to people here and gauging things like yard signs, social media discussions, etc. This isn't Iowa-specific but: https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/ It shows that Biden supporters are about equally split between Bernie, Warren, and (lol) Bloomberg as their second choice, with Bernie in the lead. A third of Warren supporters have Bernie as their second choice, followed by Biden, and then Pete and Klob tied for third. The last actual Iowa poll I saw with second choices showed like 50% of Warren supporters having Bernie as their second choice, same for Yang supporters, but I can't find that one right now.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:47
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I am probably late to this but in 1995, a california Congress member Duke Cunningham talked about "homos in the military" and said to a female congress member "sit down you socialist" and Bernie just goes hard at him. https://youtu.be/zESCS2A6VTU Mr Ice Cream Glove fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Feb 1, 2020 |
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Feb 1, 2020 18:47
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My hot take realignment prediction is that it won't matter nearly as much as people in this thread are expecting. Second and third choice preferences are varied enough that the pre-realignment order will largely be preserved with the top three candidates just walking away with larger overall tallies. If Bernie's ahead, then he's going to stay ahead, without his relative lead changing much.
Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Feb 1, 2020 |
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Feb 1, 2020 18:51
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