|
Also remember that every precinct isn't going to break down with all three centrists at 13%
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 18:54
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 02:53 |
|
|
Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:I am probably late to this but in 1995, a california Congress member Duke Cunningham talked about "homos in the military" and said to a female congress member "sit down you socialist" and Bernie just goes hard at him. Yeah it's used in this (great) video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVS-itGeeEA
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 18:54
|
|
|
Paradoxish posted:My hot take realignment prediction is that it won't matter nearly as much as people in this thread are expecting. Second and third choice preferences are varied enough that the pre-realignment order will largely be preserved with the top three candidates just walking away with larger overall tallies. If Bernie's ahead, then he's going to stay ahead, without his relative lead changing much. Yeah for this to happen all the non-viable caucusgoers would have to break uniformly and consistently toward one non-Sanders candidate, and it's been shown that voter preferences are not nearly as ideologically rigid as people here would believe. It's just as likely that Sanders would increase his lead on the second round.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 18:59
|
|
|
exquisite tea posted:Yeah for this to happen all the non-viable caucusgoers would have to break uniformly and consistently toward one non-Sanders candidate, and it's been shown that voter preferences are not nearly as ideologically rigid as people here would believe. It's just as likely that Sanders would increase his lead on the second round. Right. I think it's basically going to be toss-up if things are very close, but it's not going to effect the results much at all if there's already clear separation between the leading candidates. I don't think there's any way that something like a 5+ point lead in initial votes gets erased during realignment, and that's probably true no matter who is in the lead.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:02
|
|
|
The other thing is that all of this isn't just done in wordless silence with people just shuffling around a room. Supporters can and will try to make the case for their candidate and convince people to their side. People who are only soft supporters of one candidate can even be convinced to caucus for another in the first round, though who knows whether that'll happen in any meaningful number. And of all the "polling above viability" candidates, Bernie's support is the most committed, and Biden's the least.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:02
|
|
|
MSDOS KAPITAL posted:Y'all are reading this like it's just Sanders saying "Vietnam was a really bad war" and maybe that's all people are going to take from it. Like I really loving hope so, anyway. But that's not what he said: he was calling out our actions there and the actions of our soldiers, and woo boy is that another kettle of fish. Saying America was morally wrong? Bad. Comparing America to Nazi Germany? Uh pretty loving bad, actually. Comparing US soldiers to loving Hitler? I mean I don't disagree, to be absolutely clear - look at Gallagher. But it's pretty loving bad. I think one of the single most important lessons of 2016 was that many of the political taboos that have been around so long weren't actually things the voters gave a poo poo about. The media gave a poo poo about them, and the political class gave a poo poo about them, but for the most part voters barely cared even when the media and the political class were putting those violations on full blast. Trump violated decorum with poo poo like calling for the imprisonment of his political opponents. Sanders weathered the "socialism" smears without a problem. Trump openly smeared poo poo on the troops, veterans, and "war heroes" repeatedly. "Raising taxes" appears not to be the politically-deadly phrase it was long thought to be. Russia was incredibly unpopular among the GOP, but when Trump embraced Putin, it didn't drag his popularity down - it dragged Russia's popularity up. All sorts of "politically radioactive" stuff was thrown around in the last couple of cycles, and the only one that actually had any noticeable impact on an election was Roy Moore's pedophilia scandal - and even then, he still came pretty close to winning. Yes, the media and the talking heads are virtually unanimous in insisting that America can do no wrong. But after seeing the media's track record in 2016, I'm not necessarily worried right away when a candidate crosses the media's bounds of acceptable discourse, since there's no telling whether they're actually in tune with what the voters think.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:07
|
|
|
Thoguh posted:Are those numbers total or just the democratic caucuses? Just Democratic Caucuses. The Republican caucus system is, unless they changed it, so different it's like comparing apples and kiwis. The Republican version is basically just a straw poll taken at a single time across the state.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:11
|
|
|
PepsiOverCoke posted:My prediction for Iowa: You work/volunteer for Buttigieg, right?
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:13
|
|
|
Main Paineframe posted:I think one of the single most important lessons of 2016 was that many of the political taboos that have been around so long weren't actually things the voters gave a poo poo about. The media gave a poo poo about them, and the political class gave a poo poo about them, but for the most part voters barely cared even when the media and the political class were putting those violations on full blast. Seriously, the only assholes who give a poo poo about decorum host Sunday morning political talk shows.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:14
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/LucianaLamb/status/1223588396599336963?s=20 if you don't think the rashida tlaib thing is only making centrists look bad you're not paying attention
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:21
|
|
|
Bernie is going to win, and I don't think it's going to be close. Pete and Warren are going to be close 2/3. Biden comes in 4th but it might be close with Klob.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:23
|
|
|
Bushido Brown posted:You work/volunteer for Buttigieg, right? eh, on paper buttigieg was grown in a lab to perform well in Iowa he seems to have melted down, but we won't know for sure until monday night (subject to all the ludicrous caucus wackiness people have been talking about)
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:24
|
|
|
Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:I am probably late to this but in 1995, a california Congress member Duke Cunningham talked about "homos in the military" and said to a female congress member "sit down you socialist" and Bernie just goes hard at him. How long until this becomes oppo research about how Sanders angrily yelled about "Homos in the military" in congress?
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:25
|
|
|
I never like to get my hopes up because it always feel worse when things go wrong but timing for Warren, Pete, and finally Biden dropping in polls while Sanders is surging couldn't be more perfect.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:26
|
|
|
Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:I am probably late to this but in 1995, a california Congress member Duke Cunningham talked about "homos in the military" and said to a female congress member "sit down you socialist" and Bernie just goes hard at him. So that's pretty good, and the ending about what happened to them is funny.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:29
|
|
|
edit: beaten
Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Feb 1, 2020 |
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:29
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:edit: beaten Am I paranoid for immediately suspecting that this was a staged bit?
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:33
|
|
|
HootTheOwl posted:So that's pretty good, and the ending about what happened to them is funny. Yeah it's real good. quote:Cunningham resigned from the House on November 28, 2005, after pleading guilty to accepting at least $2.4 million in bribes and under-reporting his taxable income for 2004. He pleaded guilty to federal charges of tax evasion, and conspiracy to commit bribery, mail fraud, and wire fraud. He was sentenced to eight years and four months in prison and was ordered to pay $1.8 million in restitution
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:35
|
|
|
Antifa Turkeesian posted:Am I paranoid for immediately suspecting that this was a staged bit? It was apparently some random local radio host? I don't think it was staged by Biden because they could probably come up with a better bit if they were staging it
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:36
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/GraceGThomas/status/1223670632426029056?s=20
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:36
|
|
|
It's a joke O'Keefe isn't rotting in a cell.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:38
|
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:eh, on paper buttigieg was grown in a lab to perform well in Iowa My question wasn't snark. Look at their posting history.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:42
|
|
|
I saw on Twitter that the Des Moines Register has another poll coming out today, anyone know if that’s true?
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:43
|
|
|
Many Bernie supporters are larger than O'Keefe so I don't understand why they don't just eat him
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:43
|
|
|
Solkanar512 posted:Seriously, the only assholes who give a poo poo about decorum host Sunday morning political talk shows. This is because decorum is a way to control the conversation.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:44
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/BoKnowsNews/status/1223678068058968066?s=20
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:48
|
|
|
Imagine thinking John Kerry has a personality or beliefs.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:52
|
|
|
Mahoning posted:I saw on Twitter that the Des Moines Register has another poll coming out today, anyone know if that’s true? 8pm CNN special!!!
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:52
|
|
|
Well of course with lit comedy bits like the bone spurs stuff...how's a presidential candidate supposed to top that?
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:52
|
|
|
Drmumpf lol #resist #hillary4ever #notMYpresident
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:53
|
|
|
oxsnard posted:Drmumpf lol #resist #hillary4ever #notMYpresident Got'im
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:54
|
|
|
https://mobile.twitter.com/TPCarney/status/1223659317364187136
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:56
|
|
|
The best possible way to frame it. https://mobile.twitter.com/MMFlint/status/1223681244682182656
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 19:58
|
|
|
Just another media nothingburger that they're going to gently caress for 48 hours despite not a single non-lanyard actually giving a poo poo
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 20:01
|
|
|
FizFashizzle posted:McNamara also helped developed modern seat belt practices so it's safe to say he's both killed and saved the most people in human history. Not to derail again but to look at McNamara is understand everything that is truly good and truly terrible with systems thinking.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 20:01
|
|
|
#BooHillary is trending on Twitter. Love it.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 20:02
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1223682236647661570?s=20
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 20:10
|
|
|
oxsnard posted:Well that's depressing (luckily it won't matter) queeb posted:Dang losing a 200k strong Union kinda sucks for bern I looked up both Bernie's and Biden's union endorsements and when they happened and yeah it's been kind of back and forth, though given the number of endorsements and when they're happening there will probably end up being more for Bernie than Biden when this is over. Bernie UE – United Electrical, Radio and Machine Workers of America, representing 35,900 August 29th, 2019 UURWAW – United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers: Local 36 (CA) ? September 23th, 2019 IBT – International Brotherhood of Teamsters: Pennsylvania Federation Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division (PA) ? September 23th, 2019 NUHW – National Union of Healthcare Workers, representing 15,000 (co-endorsement with Elizabeth Warren) September 26th, 2019 NNU – National Nurses United, representing 150,000 November 12th, 2019 UTLA – United Teachers Los Angeles, representing 35,000 (CA) November 14, 2019 BIDG – The Boston Independent Drivers Guild (MA) ? November 22th, 2019 IBEW – International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers: Local 1634 (IA) ? December 7th, 2019 SEIU – Service Employees International Union: Local 1984, representing 10,000 (NH) January 12th, 2020 CCEA – Clark County Educational Association, representing 19,000 (NV) January 14, 2020 CWA – Communications Workers of America: Local 9119 (CA), representing 17,000 January 21st, 2020 AFT - American Federation of Teachers: Vermont (VT), representing 5,000 January 24th, 2020 AFL-CIO - UNITE HERE: Local 11 (AZ, CA), representing 30,000 (co-endorsement with Elizabeth Warren) January 28th, 2020 UFCW – United Food and Commercial Workers International Union: Local 230 (IA) and Local 21 (WA), representing 46,000 July 3rd, 2019 and January 29th, 2020 APWU - American Postal Workers Union, representing 200,000 January 30th, 2020 Biden International Association of Fire Fighters, representing 313,000 September 3rd, 2019 United Food And Commercial Workers Local 1776 Keystone State, representing 20,000 September 17th, 2019 National Association of Government Employees, representing over 100,000 December 9th, 2019 International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental, and Reinforcing Iron Workers, representing 130,000 January 2nd, 2020 Amalgamated Transit Union, representing 200,000 February 1st, 2020 Iowa Fire Fighters Union ? There aren't many other endorsements though hilariously Kamala's endorsement came seventeen days before she suspended her campaign. Warren American Federation of Teachers (Massachusetts), representing 23,000 January 23rd, 2020 Boston Teachers Union Local 46, representing 10,000 January 13th, 2020 National Union of Healthcare Workers, representing 15,000 (co-endorsement with Bernie Sanders) September 26th, 2019 Kamala United Farm Workers, representing 10,000 November 16th, 2019 The wildcard here are the progressive activist groups that have endorsed Bernie which if added up exceed the larger unions in number.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 20:15
|
|
|
Who could be undecided at this point?
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 20:15
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 02:53 |
|
|
Sir Tonk posted:https://twitter.com/TPCarney/status/1223659317364187136 poo poo, I'm voting Biden now
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2020 20:16
|
|
