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Concerned Citizen posted:nah it's cool, now that the poll wasn't released you can just pretend it's whatever you wanted it to be. that's the magic of imagination! I can't loving believe it's finally Klobering time.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:14
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King of Solomon posted:I mean, you're not wrong overall, but keep in mind how the Reagan administration handled the AIDS crisis. Someone having AIDS was a pretty big stigma until the early 90s, and even after that. I fall in the younger Gen-X spectrum (born in 77), so while I don’t have a lot of distinct memories of what the public sentiment was when Reagan was making those decisions, I do remember there was more of a turning point after Freddie Mercury died. I don’t remember that being a really big platform issue when I voted for president back in 1996. LGBTQ rights as a whole weren’t really taken seriously in the Dem platform at the time, either. Hell, DADT was instituted in 1994.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:14
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John Wick of Dogs posted:It sounds like one person who was a respondent to the poll got mad and called the newspaper to say it was biased because they didn't like the wording of the questions or Pete want an answer in every question or something one person complained that pete wasn't listed with the candidates, and when they asked for the list repeated the person mispronounced buttigieg's name.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:14
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The real takeaway here is how they're willing to bend over backwards to keep from upsetting the centrists when you know that a poll that had errors unfavorable to Bernie would get released as normal with an asterisk/editor's note at best.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:14
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John Wick of Dogs posted:It sounds like one person who was a respondent to the poll got mad and called the newspaper to say it was biased because they didn't like the wording of the questions or Pete want an answer in every question or something Nate Cohn had a twitter thread about why this probably isn't it. This is the relevant tweet for the argument: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1223790666511192064
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Feb 2, 2020 03:15
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If some interviewer really left off Pete's name, why doesn't DMR just toss just that data and rerun the results with a (presumably slightly) smaller N and a somewhat higher MoE? The issue probably wasn't *too* widespread or someone would have caught it much earlier. This makes no sense as reported. e: proper use of parentheses Armack fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Feb 2, 2020 |
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Feb 2, 2020 03:16
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HootTheOwl posted:I can't loving believe it's finally Klobering time. Neither can her staffers.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:17
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Two possibilities: 1. Their servers got swamped and it crashed. 2. They don't believe the numbers so they are double checking them, which may result in: 2A. Double checking the numbers and releasing them late. Possibly with biased language. 2B. "Adjusting the Poll" Altering the parameters of the poll so that it changes the numbers. Those are my guesses.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:18
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Armack posted:If some interviewer really left off Pete's name, why doesn't DMR just toss just that data and rerun the results with a (presumably slightly smaller N) and a somewhat higher MoE? Maybe they are dumb and don't keep track of who called who
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Feb 2, 2020 03:19
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DMR just didn't want to admit that everyone demanded that the pollster accept their JEB! response.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:19
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Armack posted:If some interviewer really left off Pete's name, why doesn't DMR just toss just that data and rerun the results with a (presumably slightly) smaller N and a somewhat higher MoE? Unless the results are good for Bernie and this is a flimsy excuse, then it makes perfect sense
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Feb 2, 2020 03:20
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Maybe Pete was polling behind Yang, but it was a strong polling behind Yang
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Feb 2, 2020 03:20
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Office Pig posted:Neither can her staffers. I would argue they're the ones who expect it the most. To their faces.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:22
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joepinetree posted:This is a dumb and pedantic argument to have. My argument is not that i can read Warren's mind. My point is that every single one of her conversions came at a moment that was advantageous to her career. Such as leaving the republican party when she moved from a state that almost exclusively had republican senators to one that almost exclusively had Democratic ones, at a time when a democratic president went from looking like a fluke to a long term prospect. Sure, maybe it’s dumb and pedantic, but I thought it was important to point out that other folks in the Democratic Party have spoken to the Federalist Society. The way you phrased that made it seem like that was something unusual. I’m not saying it’s a good thing, it’s just how poo poo has been. Cool?
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Feb 2, 2020 03:24
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DesMoines Register Public Statement. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...rns/4637168002/
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Feb 2, 2020 03:25
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i am 100% certain the poll was very bad for pete buttigieg the campaigns generally get to see the polls the day before they go out, so the pete campaign was probably throwing a shitfit
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Feb 2, 2020 03:26
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Concerned Citizen posted:i am 100% certain the poll was very bad for pete buttigieg We do know he hates poles
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Feb 2, 2020 03:27
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https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223791720002965507?s=19 https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223792207800520705?s=19 Armack fucked around with this message at 03:30 on Feb 2, 2020 |
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Feb 2, 2020 03:28
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Can I cut and paste the full statement here? If i Cite it? Or is that  ??
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Feb 2, 2020 03:28
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Do it
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Feb 2, 2020 03:34
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im betting the Pete folks threatened a lawsuit
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Feb 2, 2020 03:35
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Here: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...rns/4637168002/ "Published 8:01 p.m. CT Feb. 1, 2020 | Updated 8:10 p.m. CT Feb. 1, 2020" Des Moines Register posted:Des Moines Register, partners cancel release of Iowa Poll over respondent concerns TLDR: We are not releasing the poll because a single "surveyor" complained. Edit: Added date and time. Removed quotation marks at the end. Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Feb 2, 2020 |
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Feb 2, 2020 03:37
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This is complete bullshit and I hope someone from DMR or one of the campaigns that got an advance copy just leaks the drat thing.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:37
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https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1223797238440263682 lmao
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Feb 2, 2020 03:37
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Hahah of course it was Pete.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:39
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generic one posted:Sure, maybe it’s dumb and pedantic, but I thought it was important to point out that other folks in the Democratic Party have spoken to the Federalist Society. The way you phrased that made it seem like that was something unusual. I’m not saying it’s a good thing, it’s just how poo poo has been.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:39
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If they hadn't waited until 3 seconds before they were scheduled to release the numbers, nobody would be insisting the Truth Is Out There. I mean, if their stated reasons were valid they would have known this long ago no just learned of it moments before air. Unless we are to believe that an intrepid respondent just wouldn't leave it alone, finally getting to the top brass at the last second to let them know that Pete been done dirty. For their singular questioning. Vox Nihili posted:im betting the Pete folks threatened a lawsuit Nobody can possibly cowardly enough to avoid the dumbest, most baseless lawsuit this side of one of Donny's lawyers.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:40
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Importantly: The decision to not post the poll was posted 10 minutes after the poll was to be released. I'd imagine that must have been a last minute decision. It is not a technical mishap. Question: Is it possible someone high up pulled the plug at the last minute?
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Feb 2, 2020 03:41
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Gyges posted:If they hadn't waited until 3 seconds before they were scheduled to release the numbers, nobody would be insisting the Truth Is Out There. I mean, if their stated reasons were valid they would have known this long ago no just learned of it moments before air. well i think if they just saw the results and thought it was junk, they would have done it earlier in the day (they've been sitting on these results for a few days) rather than the last minute at considerable expense to cnn/dmr. https://twitter.com/grynbaum/status/1223797519349624834
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Feb 2, 2020 03:41
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Gyges posted:Nobody can possibly cowardly enough to avoid the dumbest, most baseless lawsuit this side of one of Donny's lawyers. this is CNN we're talking about
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Feb 2, 2020 03:42
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It obviously took so long because the non-bernie campaigns spent the day fighting back and forth over who was going to take the blame for killing it. It would've been Klob but Pete was foolish and inexperienced enough to get into stapler range.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:43
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Importantly: The decision to not post the poll was posted 10 minutes after the poll was to be released. I'd imagine that must have been a last minute decision. It's possible the sun will rise tomorrow
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Feb 2, 2020 03:43
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From Patrick Murray at Monmouth: https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223791180376346625 Holy mackerel! This is weird. And I say this from experience. I was in our field house on last night of our Iowa. Happened to be standing behind one interviewer who did not read all the names on screen. By time I got to the control room, the supervisor already flagged that interviewer and pulled her off for retraining. It was the beginning of the shift, so we only had to delete that one interview. But we’ve also had data come back at the end of the night where we can see unusual trends in a particular interviewer. There is plenty of opportunity to replace those interviews if that is the problem. If it is a programming issue that should have been picked up fairly quickly. As I said, it is weird to bag an entire poll rather than just extend field for a day.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:43
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It’s getting real hard to not become conspiracy minded in this campaign.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:43
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Wait so it’s possible they were showing n-1 candidates to everyone, with the -1 chosen at random? That’s a decent reason to pull the poll if true. “If true” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence, of course.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:44
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ARACHTION posted:It’s getting real hard to not become conspiracy minded in this campaign. Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you
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Feb 2, 2020 03:44
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Concerned Citizen posted:well i think if they just saw the results and thought it was junk, they would have done it earlier in the day (they've been sitting on these results for a few days) rather than the last minute at considerable expense to cnn/dmr. A dab of random error is not enough to pull a poll. Anyways, they could have easily dropped all the cases collected by this person.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:45
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But if the omissions were entirely random and stayed that way across all of the interviewer's surveys then that doesn't systematically bias the poll at all! 
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Feb 2, 2020 03:46
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https://twitter.com/ZachandMattShow/status/1223797947818745856 yangmentum is being suppressed by the media
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Feb 2, 2020 03:46
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Concerned Citizen posted:well i think if they just saw the results and thought it was junk, they would have done it earlier in the day (they've been sitting on these results for a few days) rather than the last minute at considerable expense to cnn/dmr. Yeah, they would have known about any issues with some dumbass who refused to wear their glasses days ago. Waiting until the last second is what makes these excuses total bullshit. Unless, once again, some Pete guy kept demanding to speak to a manager for a few days straight. Which, sure, I can see a Pete fan possessing big Speak To Your Manager energy. Just that there's no way his desperate plea for justice was only finally heard just as they were passing Anderson Cooper the envelope.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:48
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