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The big question is if all these swings are front-loaded in like Dublin and the border counties or further afield - that TG4 Galway poll hasnt made me feel overly confident about their chances further out from commuterland but i'm just a natural pessimist on this stuff really. SF getting all their first prefs frontloaded on solo run candidates would be good for the other left leaning parties if they transfer down properly but could mean they underperform in total. Should expect to see them overcome their transfer toxicity i'd expect
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# ? Feb 1, 2020 23:28 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 09:24 |
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https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1223753771521597440 it's happening However notable collapse in S-PBP votes there, weird Aontu numbers - doesn't make an SF lead coalition of the other seem viable compared to the last numbers
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# ? Feb 2, 2020 01:08 |
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Election is now officially gonna get well mental for the last week
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# ? Feb 2, 2020 01:09 |
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these are some loving crazy numbers man, no way it goes that well for the sinners on polling day
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# ? Feb 2, 2020 03:59 |
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So I was at the Local Candidate meeting on Friday night where we had practically all the Candidates there, except for Sinn Fein because she thought it wise to go on holidays than answer any questions that weekend. The following is a rough breakdown of their performance:
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# ? Feb 2, 2020 10:02 |
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Where did that 50+ go?
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# ? Feb 2, 2020 15:03 |
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Looks like little to no recovery or development outside of urban centres has finally bitten FG on the arse (two polls is pretty telling). I'm certainly opposed to the idea of "anyone but FG" but I am glad they are looking to loose out here.
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# ? Feb 2, 2020 19:36 |
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Where did that 50+ go? He claimed that it went to the restoration of the derelict Community Centre, which got a paint job recently. But a €50k+ revamp didn't sit well with the crowd because the Daycare is currently operating out of the GAA Club and was for years... Foul Ole Ron posted:Looks like little to no recovery or development outside of urban centres has finally bitten FG on the arse (two polls is pretty telling). I'm certainly opposed to the idea of "anyone but FG" but I am glad they are looking to loose out here. There feels like a massive shift in opinion, I honestly hope that it doesn't just become the FF show with a party that just nods and waves their way into another Recession.
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# ? Feb 2, 2020 21:12 |
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Foul Ole Ron posted:Looks like little to no recovery or development outside of urban centres has finally bitten FG on the arse (two polls is pretty telling). I'm certainly opposed to the idea of "anyone but FG" but I am glad they are looking to loose out here. My problem is that I really hate how FG just don't give a poo poo about the homeless or the hospital waiting lists. And that RCI/DMP "commemoration" really felt like boot licking of the Empire. But on the flip side, I will always blame FF for how so many of my friends had to emigrate. I just wish both could lose really hard.
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# ? Feb 2, 2020 22:37 |
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I just saw a canvassing poster for Michael Healy Rae outside Brittas village in South County Dublin. I feel like I'm losing my mind.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 09:50 |
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https://twitter.com/BenGilroy11/status/1223668953064648713?s=20 He's at it again.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 14:24 |
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I was greatly disappointed to discover he wasn't some hurling old boy trying to remind everyone he used to play county but rather just a run of the mill insane right winger
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 14:29 |
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Also looks like FG might be pushing Coveney to the front on the campaign to offset Leo Leoing all over the place https://twitter.com/FineGael/status/1224020528622600192?s=19
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 14:32 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:I was greatly disappointed to discover he wasn't some hurling old boy trying to remind everyone he used to play county but rather just a run of the mill insane right winger He was one of these insane “Freemen of the land” types. But worse because he went around offering his services to represent people in court in a manner similar to being a lawyer, without actually being a lawyer. (Obviously lawyers didn’t like this. Lawyers spend years training to be given the privilege of being able to act as an advocate for others in court. Gilroy took a system designed to help people in family law cases, McKenzie friends, and abused it.) Well he did up until he got a court order banning him from representing anybody else in court. He also got jailed for contempt of court for constantly ignoring court orders in house repossession cases, often ones where he was representing other people.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 14:53 |
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https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224359304372932610?s=19 RTE climbing down? Argument to be made that staying clear of the Leo/Martin slagging match is helping them to position outside of the mudslinging establishment but could also help position them as a major "party of government" I imagine it's gonna be none stop attack SF though
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 18:21 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224359304372932610?s=19 Pretty much, the seem rattled. Edit: FF played the minority government well, Martin let leo (et al ) push the FG agenda.... which it seems has pissed off people (who would of thought that fiscal conservatism would do that?)... That and the homeless man being hurt in Cork. It's anyone's chance now, the greens and Labour had their chance, could it be the Shinners now? Foul Ole Ron fucked around with this message at 19:20 on Feb 3, 2020 |
# ? Feb 3, 2020 18:41 |
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Mary Lou being on the debate is going to make it great viewing. Both FF and FG will be prioritizing targeting her, but shes the best debater of the 3 so should get some good digs back at them. And it'll presumably have better moderation than that disastrous Virgin Media debate. Should be very entertaining. Its definitely an embarrassing climb down for RTE and their ridiculous "leaders debate" criteria, too. kustomkarkommando posted:Also looks like FG might be pushing Coveney to the front on the campaign to offset Leo Leoing all over the place If Coveney had won the FG leadership race I think they would be in a much, much better position right now. Under him the party probably would have been centerist enough to at least intervene partially in the housing crisis in 2017. Not enough to fix it mind you, but enough so they wouldn't look completely incompetent as they do now after persisting with Leo's hands-off neoliberal approach for far too long. And obviously Coveney actually being capable, and having substance/character, would stand to him a lot more so than Leo's PR obsessed, vacuous, approach.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 19:41 |
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Foul Ole Ron posted:It's anyone's chance now, the greens and Labour had their chance, could it be the Shinners now? Part of me is reminded of the big labour swell in 2011 where people just said "gently caress it lets try something different" - the potential unsubstainability of that in the long run I think should make the Shinners a bit cautious, I think their candidate startegy (which is actually pretty sound considering their past results and aims for modest yet still significant gains) shows even they are a bit unprepared for the big jump in polling numbers being shown.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 20:06 |
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Blut posted:
As my partner said, the last thing people want is to see Leo's face when they are living at home with their parents trying to scrape a mortgage.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 20:07 |
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Also lol looks like government formation may be getting delayed as Tipp is being postponed https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224399444017283072?s=19
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 20:10 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:Also lol looks like government formation may be getting delayed as Tipp is being postponed What a dumb electoral system we have
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 21:56 |
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I mean what else do you do if one of the candidates dies?
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:09 |
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If you're an independent, the UK doesn't give a poo poo and just rolls on, with you removed from the ballot if it's more than a few days beforehand. If it's a party candidate the election gets pushed to give time for the party to nominate someone else.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:11 |
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Is this a true independent or is it one of the wacky "we're not a party but a group of independents working together" things?
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:14 |
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https://twitter.com/serentrippety/status/1224442549911244806?s=19 Holy poo poo
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:23 |
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How so? It does two things - first it prevents the possibility of a region electing a deceased person and having to go straight back to the polls for a by-election, and secondly it allows the family of the deceased breathing room to grieve while not having to be constantly reminded of their passing. We had all the local candidates come into the college today to talk about student issues. Only 7 out of the apparent 15 arrived, with most of the South Louth based candidates skipping it. However, the FG candidate for here also didn't show his face, which was really odd/funny because his entire platform is "I'm young!" Another absence was Nash, which was weird. I understand his focus is on Drogheda but he doesn't have another Labour mate to clash with. It was actually an interesting enough forum. Learned about some of the independents that are running here. None are amazing, but they're not entirely awful. A yank is running on the platform of "extreme localism" (a direct quote) where she would work to devolve more powers to the county councils and town councils. Not an awful idea in theory, but very doubtful it will work in any way. The other one was a guy who would only talk about mental health. Almost certainly means well, but when you are specifically asked how you would address the funding of third level education and you divert immediately into talking about mental health concerns... SF's candidate for here was very good, honestly. He was well spoken and comfortable in front of the crowd. Got a few laughs too, which was good. PBP's one had a good stump speech and did well talking about things that weren't exactly education related while linking them to education - free transport would reduce the cost of attending college, fixing housing and rents will allow students more independence, ect. Green Party candidate was a good speaker too and actually gave me confidence in listing them as a numbered preference. It will probably be fourth, but I was legitimately considering leaving him out completely. FF's Breathnach was initially well spoken, but he was challenged by two members of staff on his and FF's record and began to lose his temper. Was very visibly annoyed which I was a bit shocked at. It didn't take much at all for him to tilt - first person specifically said that the pay disparity that is at the root of tomorrow's strike action is because of the inaction of both FG and FF in "coalition". He got worked up trying to explain that confidence and supply is actually different than coalition because... Pretty fun to watch honestly. Fitzpatrick was last and god he was a complete mess. He couldn't string a sentence together and kept going from one thing to another while saying he was the "REAL INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE FOR LOUTH". This ticked me off to the point where I actually stopped him and asked if he is a real independent who will criticize the government why he was part of FG for so long. He first responded by saying that he did some soul searching (Which apparently took seven and a half years but okay) and this makes him honest. He might be a bit too honest, because he then went on to say that he didn't seek out FG, that the party approached him. He joined the party without ever believing in them. He actually said that. I almost lost it completely! Providing nothing major changes between now and Saturday, I've now solidified my vote completely. Glad I went!
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:23 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:https://twitter.com/serentrippety/status/1224442549911244806?s=19
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:26 |
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Stanley Kubrick's the shinning
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:26 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:https://twitter.com/serentrippety/status/1224442549911244806?s=19 Jesus christ imagine a sinner government lads. HA! gently caress you Leo, your a tofffffffffff!
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:33 |
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Azza Bamboo posted:Is this a true independent or is it one of the wacky "we're not a party but a group of independents working together" things?
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:33 |
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Speaking of independents, I have from a good source that Danny Healy-Rae is notorious for destroying the Dáil Jacks after a shite.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:38 |
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Foul Ole Ron posted:gently caress you Leo, your a tofffffffffff! as a trinity graduate I don't think a party led by a private schoolgirl from churchtown who went to TCD should start calling people toffs but also gently caress leo
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:46 |
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https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1224449175829401601?s=19 SF out in clear front for every age bracket under 50
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 22:53 |
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kustomkarkommando posted:as a trinity graduate I don't think a party led by a private schoolgirl from churchtown who went to TCD should start calling people toffs Tbh I'm going to vote green, still... from working in mental health and seeing the devastation FG have caused, I'm laughing my hole off at these poles.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 23:01 |
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I'm not going to be tricked into having hope.
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# ? Feb 3, 2020 23:41 |
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That latest poll is great. I'm not an SF voter, and would have some worries about an SF only government, but if somehow the numbers worked out for a coalition with them/LAB/Greens/SocDems it'd be fantastic for the country. Almost 100 years after independence finally a government without FF or FG. Its pretty unlikely mathematically though sadly. I wonder what way FF and FG will play the debate tonight. Do they both focus on attacking SF since they're surging, and risk making themselves look united and SF the agent of change? Do they attack each other, and risk both parties bleeding to SF if any hits land?
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# ? Feb 4, 2020 12:07 |
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Is leader of the opposition based on seats won? Be hilarious if FF/FG manage to lose and get the same number of seats.
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# ? Feb 4, 2020 12:19 |
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Is leader of the opposition based on seats won? Be hilarious if FF/FG manage to lose and get the same number of seats. Technically the Dail has Leaders In Opposition with flexible speaking rights, it is based on seats won but if someone is dead even they would just get the same rights as each other
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# ? Feb 4, 2020 13:58 |
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He's got my vote! https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1224319959658041345?s=19
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# ? Feb 4, 2020 14:59 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 09:24 |
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Skull Servant posted:He's got my vote! Make Harry and Meghan king and queen of Ulster?
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# ? Feb 4, 2020 15:03 |