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Brave New World posted:I honestly didn't know any of these details, assuming that they're true. Jfc. Here’s a politico piece that covers most of the details: quote:Elizabeth Warren has pushed back hard on questions about a Harvard Crimson piece in 1996 that described her as Native American, saying she had no idea the school where she taught law was billing her that way and saying it never came up during her hiring a year earlier, which others have backed up. That was back when she was still claiming Native heritage but yeah using the excuse “I didn’t see all those times Harvard called me a WoC” combined with “I wasn’t hired because I was native.” Does leave a gross implication that had Warren been native and benefited from AA that she would be a lesser professor because of it. Also lol at the excuse of “listing myself as native on professional forms to meet similar people.”
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Feb 2, 2020 23:45
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:Be ready to be disappointed, because the absolute maximum that Bernie can take is 375 EVs, and I'd wonder about the health of someone predicting that. Correction, the absolute maximum Bernie can take is 538. But feel free to argue what is a realistic option in your mind.
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Feb 2, 2020 23:45
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FlamingLiberal posted:God, the party was so bad in 2004 Only one of those is still supporting socialists.
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Feb 2, 2020 23:45
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Lustful Man Hugs posted:Wait, Dean is a lobbyist for the Iranian MEK. Those guys? Yeah he's unironically a terrorist lover with Giuliani https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/979381177512587264
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Feb 2, 2020 23:47
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Paradoxish posted:I mean, this isn't even a practical option so I don't know why it's being reported, but part of me wishes that he had. It feels like we're inches away from a schism that'll rip the Democratic party apart, and if the centrist wing isn't willing to compromise or share power then we might as well get this poo poo over with and hand Republicans permanent control for the next few decades. Dude had just done a "Joe Biden is the guy" rally. You don't make that call if you believe Joe Biden actually is the guy.
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Feb 2, 2020 23:48
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Brave New World posted:I'm feeling really optimistic about Bernie's chances tomorrow night, but I'm starting to get really pessimistic vibes about the DNC. There's a major cloud on the horizon presaging a huge ratfucking in the works. This is where I am too. To be honest, I'm not convinced that establishment Democrats are actually going to do anything. The problem is that they won't shut the gently caress up about it, because it's clear that a ton of centrists are unwilling to engage the left-wing of the party on actual policy. And it's not just politicians, it's journalists and the pundit class too. The outright terror and panic is an unbelievably bad look and it's going to end up casting doubt over any kind of negative outcome for Bernie, which is a bad situation to create when it's clear that there's been a very angry divide building in the party for at least the last eight years.
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Feb 2, 2020 23:49
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What I'm really afraid of is the moment after Bernie wins when he's expected to bring the staff of his goes on board. Obama did it with Hillary's people and that's when poo poo went bad.
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Feb 2, 2020 23:52
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https://twitter.com/andraydomise/status/1224074200245309440 The gently caress?
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Feb 2, 2020 23:53
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Brave New World posted:I honestly didn't know any of these details, assuming that they're true. Jfc. Here: http://www.criticalethnicstudiesjournal.org/blog/2018/12/19/syllabus-elizabeth-warren-cherokee-citizenship-and-dna-testing A compilation of things written about how incredibly lovely Warren has been on the issue. Or if you want a shorter version in twitter form: https://twitter.com/KimTallBear/status/1218628750465568768 https://twitter.com/KimTallBear/status/1218631092204265472 Trabisnikof posted:Here’s a politico piece that covers most of the details: This story is another example of how much Warren lies. We know that Warren identified herself as Native American until the DNA test. After all, the point of the whole DNA test stunt was to prove that she was indeed Native American. And yet somehow she never claimed to Harvard that she was Native American? Even at her level of a hire, there would have been an EEO form that she would have filled out at the time. If you stop to think about this for a second, you realize how insidious this is. Either she is lying about never telling Harvard she was Native American, or she filled out the form and indeed marked "white" while publicly still claiming to be Native American. There is no third option here. joepinetree fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Feb 3, 2020 |
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Feb 2, 2020 23:56
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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:What I'm really afraid of is the moment after Bernie wins when he's expected to bring the staff of his goes on board. Obama did it with Hillary's people and that's when poo poo went bad. I imagine he's ready to hire from within his grass roots movement. Have to fire like everyone leftover from trump anyways.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:01
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FlamingLiberal posted:https://twitter.com/andraydomise/status/1224074200245309440 Turns out that superwoke liberals believe that their superwokeness gives them license to be as racist and misogynist as they like. Brave New World posted:I'm feeling really optimistic about Bernie's chances tomorrow night, but I'm starting to get really pessimistic vibes about the DNC. There's a major cloud on the horizon presaging a huge ratfucking in the works. I'm sure they'll try, but given the caliber of political operators we're dealing with here they're more likely to just end up tripping over their own shoelaces instead.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:02
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All the polls seem to be pointing toward Bernie in the lead, they just can't make up their minds if it's Warren 2nd and Biden 4th or the opposite.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:04
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1224106024208039936 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224105741386158080
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Feb 3, 2020 00:05
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:Be ready to be disappointed, because the absolute maximum that Bernie can take is 375 EVs, and I'd wonder about the health of someone predicting that. Then we take 375 EVs, but we get there by striving to get 538 EVs not by just looking to get 375 EVs.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:06
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KIM JONG TRILL posted:https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1224106024208039936 Let’s loving go!!!
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Feb 3, 2020 00:07
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YCySD7GlKA
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Feb 3, 2020 00:08
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If Bernie wins the Democratic nomination then I sincerely think there's the possibility of a major electoral realignment, moreso than any other candidate from the last 20 years.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:09
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KIM JONG TRILL posted:https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1224106024208039936 
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Feb 3, 2020 00:12
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exquisite tea posted:If Bernie wins the Democratic nomination then I sincerely think there's the possibility of a major electoral realignment, moreso than any other candidate from the last 20 years. More like 200 years.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:14
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538's Iowa page gives their average standings as Sanders 22.2% Biden 21.4% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/ but if you do a simple average of the last 10 polls its Sanders 23.8 Biden 18.7 I know they do some wacky poo poo to adjust for bias or whatever but this seems way off (will be very funny when Bernie wins)
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Feb 3, 2020 00:15
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zimbomonkey posted:Also that poll doesn't seem great for Bernie. If either Biden or buttigieg doesn't make the 15% cut then their voters get to realign right? It seems kind of like a safe assumption that they would to see a lot of supporters going to Warren as the more establishment friendly candidate right? Am I misunderstanding this whole process? I know someone else replied, but it might interest you to see how it shakes out in the Data For Progress/Civiqs January 26-29 poll: First choice only Bernie Sanders 28% Elizabeth Warren 21% Pete Buttigieg 15% Joe Biden 15% Amy Klobuchar 8% Andrew Yang 5% Tom Steyer 2% Tulsi Gabbard 2% John Delaney 0% Michael Bennet 0% Unsure 2% Re-allocating support to second choice for candidates receiving fewer than 15% first choice votes Bernie Sanders 31% (+3) Elizabeth Warren 25% (+4) Joe Biden 20% (+5) Pete Buttigieg 18% (+3) Tom Steyer 2% Andrew Yang 1% Tulsi Gabbard 1% Michael Bennet 1% Amy Klobuchar 0% John Delaney 0% Unsure 2% Also a couple of nice cross tabs for everyone else. Total / Sanders / Warren / Buttigieg / Biden / Other / Unsure Definitely will attend: 72% / 80% / 73% / 71% / 68% / 61% / 70% Probably will attend: 17% / 17% / 16% / 14% / 15% / 25% / 16% Probably will not attend: 11% / 4% / 10% / 16% / 17% / 15% / 13% Mind made up / Persuadable / Still deciding (percentages of total in category, e.g. if only "mind made up" showed up, Bernie would get 34%, Warren 23%, Pete 13% and Biden 14%) Bernie Sanders 34% / 23% / 15% Elizabeth Warren 23% / 18% / 19% Pete Buttigieg 13% / 21% / 17% Joe Biden 14% / 19% / 15% Poll found here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Iowa_Voter_Survey_DFP-Civiqs.pdf (it has a slightly younger, less well educated sample than 2016 entry polls, but older sample than 2008 exit polls. It is nailing it on gender and race.)
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Feb 3, 2020 00:16
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Totally unrelated to anything, but I hope everyone who's all-in for Bernie is prepared to put in serious work when he wins. Typical centrist Democrats are allowed to lose as much as they want without accepting it as a rebuke of their ideology, but a Bernie loss in the general would be a devastating blow to the left-wing. I swore off working directly for candidates after 2016, but I'm going to make an exception for a Bernie win because there's a lot more at stake here than just beating Trump.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:17
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exquisite tea posted:If Bernie wins the Democratic nomination then I sincerely think there's the possibility of a major electoral realignment, moreso than any other candidate from the last 20 years. That would mean a Trump victory followed by a Sanders victory. It would probably be the most significant realignment of our political era.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:17
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Paradoxish posted:Totally unrelated to anything, but I hope everyone who's all-in for Bernie is prepared to put in serious work when he wins. Typical centrist Democrats are allowed to lose as much as they want without accepting it as a rebuke of their ideology, but a Bernie loss in the general would be a devastating blow to the left-wing. I swore off working directly for candidates after 2016, but I'm going to make an exception for a Bernie win because there's a lot more at stake here than just beating Trump. My dad asked me to pledge to canvass for the Dem candidate in November and I said "only if its Bernie, not gonna waste my time on the others"
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Feb 3, 2020 00:19
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnb8RoFPGgA
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Feb 3, 2020 00:20
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:My dad asked me to pledge to canvass for the Dem candidate in November and I said "only if its Bernie, not gonna waste my time on the others" Vote Bernie No Matter Who
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Feb 3, 2020 00:22
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Lustful Man Hugs posted:That would mean a Trump victory followed by a Sanders victory. It would probably be the most significant realignment of our political era. The realignment already happened with Trump. Other than some centrist democrats in solid blue states sitting out 2020, I don't think much changes from 2016.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:22
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:My dad asked me to pledge to canvass for the Dem candidate in November and I said "only if its Bernie, not gonna waste my time on the others" But you’re going to be canvassing your local down ballot, right?
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Feb 3, 2020 00:22
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:My dad asked me to pledge to canvass for the Dem candidate in November and I said "only if its Bernie, not gonna waste my time on the others" Haha nice! Did he cry?
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Feb 3, 2020 00:23
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https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1224108907368308736
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Feb 3, 2020 00:25
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:538's Iowa page gives their average standings as 538 weights them based on the pollster's ranking, and they also factor in endorsements, highest office achieved, fundraising, regional advantages, etc. Once you factor that all in their model just shrugs at you and says "I dunno, probably one of these two guys??" Presumably it will get more accurate through the primary as real voting data is fed into it, but there's no way to know right now if their model is any good or not. Edit: oh I'm mixing up their model and poll averages, which are two separate pages on their site for some reason. Yeah with the page you linked it's probably just the arbitrary pollster ranking coming into play. Wicked Them Beats fucked around with this message at 00:30 on Feb 3, 2020 |
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Feb 3, 2020 00:26
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Wicked Them Beats posted:538 weights them based on the pollster's ranking, and they also factor in endorsements, highest office achieved, fundraising, regional advantages, etc. Is this why it was off on Trump? Like lack of political history, offices, own party hated him, etc?
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Feb 3, 2020 00:30
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Wicked Them Beats posted:538 weights them based on the pollster's ranking, and they also factor in endorsements, highest office achieved, fundraising, regional advantages, etc. that number cuban linux cited is just their polling average, it doesn't account for endorsements or whatever. but they do adjust results based on a variety of things (including poll quality and whether or not the poll is unusually good for one candidate versus others). the methodology is here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/
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Feb 3, 2020 00:32
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JBP posted:Is this why it was off on Trump? Like lack of political history, offices, own party hated him, etc? 538 was one of the only models giving Trump a chance in 2016.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:33
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If we're talking primary, Nate's numbers showed him Trump had the best shot at taking it but he ignored them because he thought it too insane.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:33
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JBP posted:Is this why it was off on Trump? Like lack of political history, offices, own party hated him, etc? Nate Silver vastly overestimated the weight of endorsements (and still does) and assumed, like many other pundits at the time, that the GOP would unite behind an establishment candidate in defiance of every poll showing Trump way ahead.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:34
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Seph posted:538 was one of the only models giving Trump a chance in 2016. It did so for the wrong reasons, though.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:34
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I keep hearing this ridiculous Bloomberg ad on podcasts and it sounds like a loving parody. There's a line that's more or less "What's Mike about? Doing things." It's also too long and gets cut off in like half of the podcasts where I've heard it. It's hilarious.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:35
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i only get to use my pointlessly extensive knowledge of the iowa democratic caucuses once every 4 to 8 years, so tomorrow is a big day for me. also fun fact: tomorrow will have satellite caucuses prior to the official start time of 7pm cst. the first, happening in tblisi, will occur at 10am. that one will probably have at most 3 attendees. many others happen in the afternoon and then throughout the day. we probably will see some of those results on social media prior to the main caucus event. the full list is here: https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/1L0w7K9JSzkTZRgPDRsrLvGagJVq5oLU6/page/ZRd9 that's right, we get a full day of caucus results. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Feb 3, 2020 |
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Feb 3, 2020 00:43
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Seph posted:538 was one of the only models giving Trump a chance in 2016. I don't think very many gave Hillary a 100% chance, so it really depends on how big you think the chance of Donny's perfect storm of losing the popular vote by millions but winning the EV by thousands was. Personally I think Nate put his chances way to high, and Donny's win was a 5-10% possibility.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:43
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