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Goodbye Flu Monday
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Feb 2, 2020 23:53
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 16:29 |
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https://twitter.com/TheWarMonitor/status/1224099629605752833?s=20
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Feb 3, 2020 00:07
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The SA probation concept with Chinese characteristics.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:08
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do they at least get free kittens with their probies
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Feb 3, 2020 00:10
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:basically the people on that plane had to have gotten the disease at least a few days ago, and if 14% of them have the coronavirus it is a decent approximation of the entire population of Wuhan. lol not really
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Feb 3, 2020 00:18
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QuarkJets posted:lol not really how so?
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Feb 3, 2020 00:19
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a group of a hundred tourists with common nationality, and therefore likely overlap in time spent together (e; or in similar locales), does not map to a population of a multi-million city
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Feb 3, 2020 00:21
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Wuhan! Wuhan! Get yo flu in check
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Feb 3, 2020 00:21
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vyst posted:Wuhan! Wuhan! Get yo flu in check Lol
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Feb 3, 2020 00:22
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dex_sda posted:a group of a hundred tourists with common nationality, and therefore likely overlap in time spent together, does not map to a population of a multi-million city yeah it's just a low sample size. tourists whom are probably families traveling together, maybe visiting some of similar poo poo or festivals, and things like that. it's almost certainly an overestimate but it is A Data Point (on the very high-side) but it's certainly a lot higher than just the official 18,000 official confirmed cases or w/e its up to. Xaris fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Feb 3, 2020 |
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Feb 3, 2020 00:23
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dex_sda posted:a group of a hundred tourists with common nationality, and therefore likely overlap in time spent together (e; or in similar locales), does not map to a population of a multi-million city they were mostly residents of wuhan, not tourists, unless im missing something here. sure it's not a perfect sample, but even if its off by 50% or more it still means hundreds of thousands might be infected already.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:25
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:they were mostly residents of wuhan, not tourists, unless im missing something here. nevertheless, the common language etc. will make interconnections between the members of a small sample totally non-representative of the actual population's of the city. not to mention a huge chunk of the what was it, a dozen? could have caught it, say, during a party where they met or something or, to put it another way, the sample is neither large, nor is it randomly selected, so any statistical predictions are reading tea leaves.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:30
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:sure it's not a perfect sample, but even if its off by 50% or more it still means hundreds of thousands might be infected already. I don't think this kind of extrapolation is worth much. Like, you all keep talking about that dude that spent 2 hours at Tianhe airport on Jan 14. I flew into Tianhe on Jan 19, then went to Han St. (one of the busiest mall streets) to do some shopping, then to my open air market. I'm not sick. Neither that dude's data point or mine is worth anything. Just follow the reported numbers.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:33
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dex_sda posted:nevertheless, the common language etc. will make interconnections between the members of a small sample totally non-representative of the actual population's of the city. not to mention a huge chunk of the what was it, a dozen? could have caught it, say, during a party where they met or something The plane reportedly carried evacuees from 30 countries, and most of the non-French citizens are expected to return to their home countries, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:33
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Can you check out that purported article I posted last page? I'm still really curious about it. Sheng-Ji Yang posted:The plane reportedly carried evacuees from 30 countries, and most of the non-French citizens are expected to return to their home countries, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said. 😬
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Feb 3, 2020 00:39
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Oh, I thought that the whole plane was just french expats. Still, that 20 of the 36 showing symptoms are French suggest they might have caught it by just being unfortunate enough for behaviors French gravitate towards in Wuhan to be more dangerous. Or, it might actually be incredibly virulent and more cases on that flight are coming. Again, reading tea leaves, just far too many variables to this to guess anything when all you get are 3 numbers.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:39
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:how so? It's actually up to you to demonstrate how a group of 200 evacuees are representative of a city of 11 million people. Take a 30-child classroom that has 3 measles cases, that does not mean that the city of Los Angeles (pop 4M) likely has 400k measles infections Sheng-Ji Yang posted:they were mostly residents of wuhan, not tourists, unless im missing something here. this is completely meaningless extrapolation Sheng-Ji Yang posted:The plane reportedly carried evacuees from 30 countries, and most of the non-French citizens are expected to return to their home countries, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said. this is a complete non sequitur to the idea that this single plane of passengers is accurately representative of the city of Wuhan
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Feb 3, 2020 00:43
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Maybe I’m missing something but why wouldn’t you just immediately quarantine everyone coming off these flights? Yeah it sucks for those people but it’s a “world health emergency” so why take chances?
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Feb 3, 2020 00:45
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I want to die, but I don't want to die of pneumonia. Ideally I'll only become infected right before they start nuking cities to contain the outbreak. Then I'll have my chance to reenact the terminator 2 scene at the nearest chainlink fence edit: MarcusSA posted:Maybe I’m missing something but why wouldn’t you just immediately quarantine everyone coming off these flights? Gettigng quarantined would be tight as hell. Imagine, 2 weeks off work...
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Feb 3, 2020 00:46
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MarcusSA posted:Maybe I’m missing something but why wouldn’t you just immediately quarantine everyone coming off these flights? That's official US policy now; everyone traveling out of or through China is now subject to a 14 day quarantine period, full stop. Including people who flew through China up to 14 days before the order was made (which was sometime within the last few days) I can hope that other countries are doing the same. But you don't just quarantine these people in China; countries want to maintain responsibility of their own citizens for a number of reasons
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Feb 3, 2020 00:48
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SKULL.GIF posted:Can you check out that purported article I posted last page? I'm still really curious about it. I forgot to mention earlier that it's crazy quiet compared to normal around my apartment. I live next to 4 train lines, and Wuhan drivers looooove to honk their horns. But now we walk up to the roof (it's full of gardens by the residents) and it's totally peaceful and quiet. Except... for this low rumble. Turns out we are close enough to hear the construction machinery for one of the hospitals being built. Pretty crazy.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:50
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QuarkJets posted:It's actually up to you to demonstrate how a group of 200 evacuees are representative of a city of 11 million people. Take a 30-child classroom that has 3 measles cases, that does not mean that the city of Los Angeles (pop 4M) likely has 400k measles infections 250 people is a 6% MoE for 11 million. these are mostly people who live in Wuhan, made up of 30 different nationalities. it is absolutely not a perfect sample, and the MoE is probably drastically worse than that because of it, but entirely discounting this is also stupid.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:50
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A Russian troll farm posted:Gettigng quarantined would be tight as hell. Imagine, 2 weeks off work... you'd get fired if you were an american
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Feb 3, 2020 00:51
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lord funk posted:The Chinese article you posted about hospital conditions? Sorry I can't really verify anything about that. I see articles like that posted around WeChat, and I'm sure there's some truth to all of them, but also not every situation is like that. You should say that post into a tape recorder then leave it conspicuously lying around, just in case.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:51
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Stairmaster posted:you'd get fired if you were an american Imagine if this happened in the US especially with all the Anti-vaxxers and CBD oil cures autism whacko running around.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:54
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Stairmaster posted:you'd get fired if you were an american No you wouldn’t.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:55
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QuarkJets posted:That's official US policy now; everyone traveling out of or through China is now subject to a 14 day quarantine period, full stop. Including people who flew through China up to 14 days before the order was made (which was sometime within the last few days) I have a coworker who was in an airport in China within the last 9 days or so, and he looked really sick on thursday. Also I've seen the same guy take one nitrile glove off to take a piss, then just put the glove back on and leave the washroom without ever washing his hands
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Feb 3, 2020 00:55
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A Russian troll farm posted:Gettigng quarantined would be tight as hell. Imagine, 2 weeks off work... Imagine a 2-week unexcused absence from your job EDIT: Okay, more likely might be "imagine not getting paid for two weeks because you're an hourly employee"
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Feb 3, 2020 00:56
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MarcusSA posted:No you wouldn’t.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:56
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https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1224118905184100355 2600 😬
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Feb 3, 2020 00:56
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Colin Mockery posted:Imagine a 2-week unexcused absence from your job Well see, the idea is that it's an excused absence. You don't get a much better opportunity to not get fired for a two week absence than "The government quarantined me due to a public health emergency" edit: I'm the kind of guy who would always take time off work if offered right up until the point of not being able to make rent/pay for food. edit 2: I've had this vaguely positive vibe that a mishandled pandemic could be a catalyst for a potential revolutionary moment. Perhaps we are walking the golden path? Ansar Santa fucked around with this message at 01:00 on Feb 3, 2020 |
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Feb 3, 2020 00:57
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Update the chart! Update the chart! Update the chart!
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Feb 3, 2020 00:59
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:250 people is a 6% MoE for 11 million. Good job high school graduate, you've calculated the random sampling error for a sampling study that A) did not use random sampling and was B) likely rife with systematic errors. e: See also: QuarkJets posted:Take a
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Feb 3, 2020 00:59
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ive calculated the numbers and its saying my MoE is -99%
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Feb 3, 2020 01:01
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Homeless Friend posted:ive calculated the numbers and its saying my MoE is -99% i think you just used the wrong numbers, that's my average post quality on a scale of -1 to 1
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Feb 3, 2020 01:03
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Colin Mockery posted:Imagine a 2-week unexcused absence from your job ok quote:
I know we like to say America is a hellscape and all that but you’d probably also be eligible for disability for those two weeks off if your employer didn’t cover it (they probably would).
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Feb 3, 2020 01:03
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A Russian troll farm posted:Well see, the idea is that it's an excused absence. You don't get a much better opportunity to not get fired for a two week absence than "The government quarantined me due to a public health emergency" Yeah, I edited my post to reflect that there's the more likely but still big problem of "surprise you got a two-week unpaid leave of absence" (assuming no wage theft/illegal shenanigans on the employer's part that leads to them refusing to accept the excused absence). I snagged a random example but couldn't easily find real stats: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/03/measles-outbreaks-cost-workers-without-paid-sick-leave/585178/
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Feb 3, 2020 01:04
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A Russian troll farm posted:Gettigng quarantined would be tight as hell. Imagine, 2 weeks off work... thinking about how any quarantined americans are going to lose their jobs and health insurance lol
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Feb 3, 2020 01:04
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MarcusSA posted:ok No offense but under a pandemic if your employer fired you, and you have medical documentation you were contagious with the disease you wouldn't have to worry about your Mc job because the settlement money from the lawsuit would be sufficient
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Feb 3, 2020 01:08
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 16:29 |
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QuarkJets posted:Good job high school graduate, you've calculated the random sampling error for a sampling study that A) did not use random sampling and was B) likely rife with systematic errors. and im not saying its a perfect random sampling moron, but there is nothing to indicate all these people were hanging out together for days in advance before leaving. what they have in common is that they are european foreigners who lived in wuhan. since they are showing symptoms upon arrival, they did not catch the disease in the plane or even the day or so before when they might have all met up. they got the coronavirus at some point in their daily lives living in wuhan. the margin of error could literally be 50% and this would still mean hundreds of thousands of people at a minimum have the disease.
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Feb 3, 2020 01:09
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