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Various Meat Products
Oct 1, 2003

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Wtf is donut Twitter. Is it just ex-Hillary staffers and the like?

DNC loyalists and other butthurt centrists

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joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Wtf is donut Twitter. Is it just ex-Hillary staffers and the like?

Nina Turner tried to take a platform petition to the DNC. The DNC blocked her entrance with barricades and tried to give her and her group donuts and water. Nina complained that the DNC was trying to buy her off with donuts. Libs and DNC establishment folks then started making fun of her, implying that she was too uppity for donuts. To mock her, lib accounts on twitter started putting the donut emoji on their handle.

Built 4 Cuban Linux
Jul 15, 2007

i own america

Nairbo posted:

When are the first wave of results expected tomorrow? Is it likely they’ll know the winner and delegate count estimates before the next morning?

Real results aroudn ~830/9 CST, but there will be preliminary stuff from the first round before that. Less than 23 hours!

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Wtf is donut Twitter. Is it just ex-Hillary staffers and the like?

#StillWithHer

Awful CompSloth
Dec 15, 2018
It'll actually be pretty bad if Warren gets second place. If she stays in for Super Tuesday then she's gonna sap votes from Bernie and could cause him to not get a majority. Make no mistakes, she wants to be Bidens VP and to be president in 2024.

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

I absolutely see Warren as sticking around until the bitter end. She'll either try another Hail Mary smear against Bernie, or try to scoop up Biden's supporters by claiming the mantle of Most Electable.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Awful CompSloth posted:

It'll actually be pretty bad if Warren gets second place. If she stays in for Super Tuesday then she's gonna sap votes from Bernie and could cause him to not get a majority. Make no mistakes, she wants to be Bidens VP and to be president in 2024.

Yeah, these polls showing Warren gaining have been worrying. Warren being in and reasonably strong on Super Tuesday would be really bad.

oxsnard
Oct 8, 2003
I think the surprise tomorrow will be Yang and Sanders turnout. Hopefully Yang gangers go to team Bernie.

Sanders walks away with 60% of delegates

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

oxsnard posted:

I think the surprise tomorrow will be Yang and Sanders turnout. Hopefully Yang gangers go to team Bernie.

Sanders walks away with 60% of delegates

Followed by Bernie getting 100% of NH apparently


https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1224182140881031168?s=21

pepsi lover
Jan 30, 2020

by Reene
Yang walks away with 60% of delegates

gandlethorpe
Aug 16, 2008

:gowron::m10:

oxsnard posted:

I think the surprise tomorrow will be Yang and Sanders turnout. Hopefully Yang gangers go to team Bernie.

Sanders walks away with 60% of delegates

I'm a little concerned that anyone still in the Yang boat at this point would even consider changing their vote. They might just leave, after being told for like the 50th time they can't still vote for Yang.

Which raises another question. Can enough people leave that it pushes a candidate who was under 15% to viability without even gaining extra votes?

Built 4 Cuban Linux
Jul 15, 2007

i own america
It really seems like Sanders is peaking at exactly the right time while everyone else had their moment fade away.
It's a little bizarre that it seems to be working out so well.
Of course it could all turn out terribly, but I'm surprised that it seems to be going so well right now. I didn't expect to feel so positively going into Iowa.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

gandlethorpe posted:

I'm a little concerned that anyone still in the Yang boat at this point would even consider changing their vote. They might just leave, after being told for like the 50th time they can't still vote for Yang.

Something like 50% of Yang supporters report Bernie as their second choice. Apparently it's the Tulsi fans who are most likely to just go home.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

joepinetree posted:

Nina Turner tried to take a platform petition to the DNC. The DNC blocked her entrance with barricades and tried to give her and her group donuts and water. Nina complained that the DNC was trying to buy her off with donuts. Libs and DNC establishment folks then started making fun of her, implying that she was too uppity for donuts. To mock her, lib accounts on twitter started putting the donut emoji on their handle.

I actually didn't know the genesis story, either. This is actually far more hosed than I would have guessed.

Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:

It really seems like Sanders is peaking at exactly the right time while everyone else had their moment fade away.
It's a little bizarre that it seems to be working out so well.
Of course it could all turn out terribly, but I'm surprised that it seems to be going so well right now. I didn't expect to feel so positively going into Iowa.

Naively, it's probably a mix of bad press galvanizing the base for canvassing efforts, money for ad buys, and people starting to move from "don't know" to picking a candidate.

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 05:56 on Feb 3, 2020

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Donut Twitter is motivated almost entirely by spite. They were KHive before there was KHive

Alkydere
Jun 7, 2010
Capitol: A building or complex of buildings in which any legislature meets.
Capital: A city designated as a legislative seat by the government or some other authority, often the city in which the government is located; otherwise the most important city within a country or a subdivision of it.




So...am I supposed to see this as a bad thing? Is politico a group against the Bern? Like a good half of the Bernie slanders, if not more, have me going "Wait, that's supposed to be a negative? I thought it was awesome!"

Sanguinia
Jan 1, 2012

~Everybody wants to be a cat~
~Because a cat's the only cat~
~Who knows where its at~

If Bernie misses 1st in Iowa to Biden, or really anybody even very closely, I worry that the specter of ELECTABILITY is going to rear its head as we go on the road to Super Tuesday. Even a decisive win in New Hampshire won't silence it, the reality that Trump cannot lose without flipping a swing/pink state is going to be a siren song to skitish primary voters. I can see the "Bernie may be the king of the blue states, but can't win Wisconsin/North Carolina/Arizona/Kansas/Georgia, ergo he CAN'T be the nominee," rhetoric now.

gandlethorpe
Aug 16, 2008

:gowron::m10:

Thanks for this! Ugh, it's pretty gross how libs just handwave her whole controversy as nothing, racist attacks by Trump notwithstanding.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:

Real results aroudn ~830/9 CST, but there will be preliminary stuff from the first round before that. Less than 23 hours!

I think each precinct has to do boring party poo poo before the speeches & votes for the candidates start so it may be a while before even first-round votes are counted.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Alkydere posted:

So...am I supposed to see this as a bad thing? Is politico a group against the Bern? Like a good half of the Bernie slanders, if not more, have me going "Wait, that's supposed to be a negative? I thought it was awesome!"

They'll frame this as an inefficient misallocation of federal resources because those private generators are cheaper to run and offer cheaper electricity.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

I know that canvassers are telling people 2 hours max but that's prolly only if they vote for a viable candidate (which Bernie will be in every precinct).

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

Willa Rogers posted:

I think each precinct has to do boring party poo poo before the speeches & votes for the candidates start so it may be a while before even first-round votes are counted.

The party stuff is after the vote. The only business is electing a chair (who is already actually chosen).

Ms Adequate
Oct 30, 2011

Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling



If I were Yang I would tell my supporters "Back Bernie - he's by far the closest to what I want to do" and go angling for either a Cabinet position with Bern, or perhaps something like heading up a Special Commission to investigate and maybe trial run a UBI proposal.

Not that I think UBI is a silver bullet or anything but there's certainly worse policies out there, and some serious modern research into it could gain momentum, as well as just generally move the Overton window a bit (Which to Yang's credit is happening a little as it is). Bernie's by far then other candidate most amenable to thinking about that kind of policy, I'm sure.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



:stare:

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

Sanguinia posted:

If Bernie misses 1st in Iowa to Biden, or really anybody even very closely, I worry that the specter of ELECTABILITY is going to rear its head as we go on the road to Super Tuesday. Even a decisive win in New Hampshire won't silence it, the reality that Trump cannot lose without flipping a swing/pink state is going to be a siren song to skitish primary voters. I can see the "Bernie may be the king of the blue states, but can't win Wisconsin/North Carolina/Arizona/Kansas/Georgia, ergo he CAN'T be the nominee," rhetoric now.

Biden is a ticking time bomb. If the above happens, the hope is that he slips up and ruins his chances during Feb. The reason Bloomberg is even running is because he doesn't trust Biden to hold his sanity together for the whole primary.

Nairbo
Jan 2, 2005
Regina isn’t done but she did lock down her Twitter account after pulling a Joy Reid and saying she was hacked and to disregard all earlier Tweets

https://imgur.com/a/ExDIlb0

Nairbo fucked around with this message at 06:18 on Feb 3, 2020

Ague Proof
Jun 5, 2014

they told me
I was everything

Harrow posted:

Something like 50% of Yang supporters report Bernie as their second choice. Apparently it's the Tulsi fans who are most likely to just go home.

Aloha.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Half of Tulsi's support consists of libertarians and Republicans who are too ashamed to vote for Trump

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Mahoning posted:

Just a timely reminder not to pay too much attention to Five Thirty Eight.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/1224157228233625600?s=21

*extreme Nate Silver voice* "The average person just doesn't understand how statistics works! Our model didn't say the 49er's would win the Superbowl, it just said that in 98 of 100 simulations using our model, they do. That's two in one hundred times the Chiefs win! There's nothing wrong with the model!"

pepsi lover
Jan 30, 2020

by Reene
my boss told me he was going to vote for tulsi because the commander in chief should be a veteran

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



pepsi lover posted:

my boss told me he was going to vote for tulsi because the commander in chief should be a veteran
Is this like all the people in D&D in 2018 who said we needed to nominate Tammy Duckworth because she was an injured vet, without even looking at her record

bobjr
Oct 16, 2012

Roose is loose.
🐓🐓🐓✊🪧

https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1224198800434180096?s=20

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Ms Adequate posted:

If I were Yang I would tell my supporters "Back Bernie - he's by far the closest to what I want to do" and go angling for either a Cabinet position with Bern, or perhaps something like heading up a Special Commission to investigate and maybe trial run a UBI proposal.

Not that I think UBI is a silver bullet or anything but there's certainly worse policies out there, and some serious modern research into it could gain momentum, as well as just generally move the Overton window a bit (Which to Yang's credit is happening a little as it is). Bernie's by far then other candidate most amenable to thinking about that kind of policy, I'm sure.

I don't think Yang really has all that much in common with Sanders. He's much closer to Warren, in that he's a pro-capitalism centrist who happens to lean left of the establishment on one or two pet issues, and is trying to take advantage of that to hijack the Bernie wave for himself.

Sanguinia
Jan 1, 2012

~Everybody wants to be a cat~
~Because a cat's the only cat~
~Who knows where its at~


Its amazing how Biden actually managed to be folksy and charming as VP. He wasn't ALWAYS saying weird poo poo like this, was he?

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

Sanguinia posted:

Its amazing how Biden actually managed to be folksy and charming as VP. He wasn't ALWAYS saying weird poo poo like this, was he?

He was significantly more cogent 8 years ago

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Sanguinia posted:

Its amazing how Biden actually managed to be folksy and charming as VP. He wasn't ALWAYS saying weird poo poo like this, was he?

He was.

Yudo
May 15, 2003


... What?

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Yudo posted:

... What?

I'd venture to say he's describing puberty.

MSDOS KAPITAL
Jun 25, 2018





Sanguinia posted:

If Bernie misses 1st in Iowa to Biden, or really anybody even very closely, I worry that the specter of ELECTABILITY is going to rear its head as we go on the road to Super Tuesday. Even a decisive win in New Hampshire won't silence it, the reality that Trump cannot lose without flipping a swing/pink state is going to be a siren song to skitish primary voters. I can see the "Bernie may be the king of the blue states, but can't win Wisconsin/North Carolina/Arizona/Kansas/Georgia, ergo he CAN'T be the nominee," rhetoric now.
They're going to do that if he wins Iowa, NH, and NV by double-digit margins. I mean it'll have less credibility, but it's still going to happen. And, a lot worse than that.

Main Paineframe posted:

I don't think Yang really has all that much in common with Sanders. He's much closer to Warren, in that he's a pro-capitalism centrist who happens to lean left of the establishment on one or two pet issues, and is trying to take advantage of that to hijack the Bernie wave for himself.
Yang might not but I get the feeling that Yang supporters do, compared to Warren supporters. I'm extremely online though so it's hard to tell.

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Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Sanguinia posted:

If Bernie misses 1st in Iowa to Biden, or really anybody even very closely, I worry that the specter of ELECTABILITY is going to rear its head as we go on the road to Super Tuesday. Even a decisive win in New Hampshire won't silence it, the reality that Trump cannot lose without flipping a swing/pink state is going to be a siren song to skitish primary voters. I can see the "Bernie may be the king of the blue states, but can't win Wisconsin/North Carolina/Arizona/Kansas/Georgia, ergo he CAN'T be the nominee," rhetoric now.

Bernie is probably done if he can't win Iowa and NH. I know this thread is super optimistic and I'm not trying to be a downer, but it's the only way he keeps his momentum. The media is going to pile on if he can't carry those two states, especially since Nevada is problematic and SC probably isn't happening for him. It's gotta be today and next Tuesday or we're hosed. No point in being unrealistic about what needs to happen.

Sanguinia posted:

Its amazing how Biden actually managed to be folksy and charming as VP. He wasn't ALWAYS saying weird poo poo like this, was he?

He's worse now, but he was always bad. People fell in love with a character created by the Onion, but real life Joe Biden is a gaffe machine that never managed to get anywhere in previous runs because he repeatedly sticks his foot in his mouth.

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