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One day your daughter is 12.5 years old, the next she's a senator from Massachusetts with a reputation for lying
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Feb 3, 2020 06:45
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Paradoxish posted:Bernie is probably done if he can't win Iowa and NH. I know this thread is super optimistic and I'm not trying to be a downer, but it's the only way he keeps his momentum. The media is going to pile on if he can't carry those two states, especially since Nevada is problematic and SC probably isn't happening for him. It's gotta be today and next Tuesday or we're hosed. No point in being unrealistic about what needs to happen.
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Feb 3, 2020 06:47
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:They're going to do that if he wins Iowa, NH, and NV by double-digit margins. I mean it'll have less credibility, but it's still going to happen. And, a lot worse than that. All Yang voters are extremely online. He's not a centrist either. I'm not sure exactly what he is, but I do like the conversation he brought to the forefront, in that it's sold as a minimum standard of living for all Americans and even though it's expensive, it feels tangible
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Feb 3, 2020 06:48
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empty whippet box posted:One day your daughter is 12.5 years old, the next she's a senator from Massachusetts with a reputation for lying 
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Feb 3, 2020 06:49
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Someone said its just 2 hour max to caucus. Nah. 2 hours minimum. And i would've leave unless you HAVE to. Not just to avoid party stuff but to verify you get counted.
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Feb 3, 2020 06:51
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Feb 3, 2020 06:56
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If Baker chooses to run against Warren in 2024, I'm nearly certain he'll win.
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Feb 3, 2020 06:57
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Paradoxish posted:Bernie is probably done if he can't win Iowa and NH. I know this thread is super optimistic and I'm not trying to be a downer, but it's the only way he keeps his momentum. The media is going to pile on if he can't carry those two states, especially since Nevada is problematic and SC probably isn't happening for him. It's gotta be today and next Tuesday or we're hosed. No point in being unrealistic about what needs to happen. That is only true if he loses both to Biden, as that would probably seal the deal for "electability" voters.
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Feb 3, 2020 06:58
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oxsnard posted:All Yang voters are extremely online. Yang seems to understand that we have BIG problems that require BIG solutions. That’s good. What’s NOT good is that he mostly misidentifies the problems AND the solutions. Like his whole fear mongering about automation is silly. When automation is treated as some independent autonomous force, like some Terminator poo poo, it completely lets the corporations making the decisions to utilize automation (and eliminate jobs) in their businesses off the hook. I’m glad he’s in the race and has planted the UBI seed in peoples brains, but I’m also glad that he’s mostly irrelevant.
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Feb 3, 2020 06:58
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pepsi lover posted:If Baker chooses to run against Warren in 2024, I'm nearly certain he'll win. Bernie will run uncontested in 2024. Then 8 years of AOC. Then Omar in a Gundam. This is the way. FlapYoJacks fucked around with this message at 07:03 on Feb 3, 2020 |
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Feb 3, 2020 06:59
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:That's overstating it a bit IMO. Second in Iowa and first in NH, and he's still in it on Super Tues. The media attacks will carry more weight, but so far those have bounced off or even helped him. Then again that could easily change once voting has actually started. Losing the single state of Iowa, even with all the attention on it and even with it going first, isn't quite enough to throw in the towel. Sanders has a LOT of money raised. If he loses Iowa, he would need to back off his "no negative campaigning" shtick and just play videos of Biden saying all that nonsense in ST states. I'm sure he'll weigh the importance of the country higher than him being nice in elections. Although he never did this against Hillary so who knows. But agreed, the idea that he would throw in the towel with 40 million still in the bank, even if he somehow loses all 4 first states, is laughable. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 07:04 on Feb 3, 2020 |
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Feb 3, 2020 07:00
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woah why is NV the state just being problematic we're basically CA's BP monitor
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Feb 3, 2020 07:00
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ratbert90 posted:Bernie will run uncontested in 2024. Then 8 years of AOC. The Omar in a Gundam. Sorry, I'm assuming she goes nowhere in the presidential race and loses her own senate seat to our current governor.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:02
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If losing Iowa doesn’t matter that much, what does winning it get you?
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Feb 3, 2020 07:03
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pepsi lover posted:Sorry, I'm assuming she goes nowhere in the presidential race and loses her own senate seat to our current governor. I hope she’s replaced with the reincarnation of Marx. In fact, I wish all establishment Dems where replaced with clones of Marx.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:04
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Kraftwerk posted:If losing Iowa doesn’t matter that much, what does winning it get you? 10 free tokens at your local Chuck E Cheese
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Feb 3, 2020 07:05
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Rad Russian posted:Biden is a ticking time bomb. If the above happens, the hope is that he slips up and ruins his chances during Feb. The reason Bloomberg is even running is because he doesn't trust Biden to hold his sanity together for the whole primary. people always say this, and i know he just kissed his granddaughter on the lips, but just remember this is what everyone said about trump too. don't slack at all on biden, he's not going away until he goes away
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Feb 3, 2020 07:05
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Kraftwerk posted:If losing Iowa doesn’t matter that much, what does winning it get you? Bernie can take 2nd or a strong 3rd in Iowa and still win the nomination. Every other candidate is out unless they win both Iowa and New Hampshire, and Pete's out unless he wins both by at least 20 points.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:06
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Just a reminder that this guy is honest to god leading in the polls in multiple states.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:07
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pepsi lover posted:anyone who uses a belief of one THIRTY SECOND indian ancestry as anything more than a fun story at the bar is a complete moron. hell, I'd still think they were annoying if they brought it up casually Funny thing about this one is as a literal 90's kid I remember the whole 1/32nd native american already being a joke in highschool about people trying to game college applications, and particularly cherokee was the goto punchline as a tribe literally everyone would recognize. It's amazing to me that someone would still be standing by that in 20XX as a full grown adult, I mean she was what, in her 50's when I was 15? There's no way she didn't know better, kids too young to drive saw through that poo poo. It was so dead before I even went to college that I doubt it's a joke now because the trope was so played out.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:14
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Teenagers are assholes tbh.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:16
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Kraftwerk posted:If losing Iowa doesn’t matter that much, what does winning it get you? A lead in delegates plus a bump in support in subsequent states. But for Bernie it means shedding the “unelectable” label for a significant portion of the electorate.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:16
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ArbitraryC posted:Funny thing about this one is as a literal 90's kid I remember the whole 1/32nd native american already being a joke in highschool about people trying to game college applications, and particularly cherokee was the goto punchline as a tribe literally everyone would recognize. It's amazing to me that someone would still be standing by that in 20XX as a full grown adult, I mean she was what, in her 50's when I was 15? There's no way she didn't know better, kids too young to drive saw through that poo poo. It was so dead before I even went to college that I doubt it's a joke now because the trope was so played out. A lot of older politicians basically mentally froze at a certain age and are incapable of processing that things can be seen differently, especially if they've lived in bubbles of privilege all their lives.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:17
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I had a T ball meeting for my kid's first season yesterday. Lots of the dads there seemed like chuds, so I buddied up to a few of them and suggested that I was going to show up to Texas' open primary to vote Sanders. One of the guys had no idea that he could vote since he's a ~real conservative~ but lit up at the suggestion he could stick it to Hillary. I think this might be my new tactic. Getting lovely libs to switch is much harder
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Feb 3, 2020 07:17
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Kraftwerk posted:If losing Iowa doesn’t matter that much, what does winning it get you?
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Feb 3, 2020 07:18
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I think you've outdone yourself. I literally lol'd. "Kiss a butterfly goodnight" is like the most basic cunilingual metaphor imaginable. drat, Joe.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:20
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oxsnard posted:I had a T ball meeting for my kid's first season yesterday. Lots of the dads there seemed like chuds, so I buddied up to a few of them and suggested that I was going to show up to Texas' open primary to vote Sanders. One of the guys had no idea that he could vote since he's a ~real conservative~ but lit up at the suggestion he could stick it to Hillary. Congrats you just invented rush Limbaugh's 2008 Operation Chaos.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:20
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Kraftwerk posted:If losing Iowa doesn’t matter that much, what does winning it get you? Momentum. Which is consultant speak for money. Winning in Iowa results in people giving you money because everyone likes to back a winner. It’s not the only benefit of placing first but it’s a significant one. In 2008 Hillary lost Iowa to Obama (she actually placed 3rd in vote %) and it was a major blow to her pocketbook. I can’t be arsed to look it up but iirc she didn’t have enough cash in hand and the Iowa loss hurt her fundraising.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:30
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Mahoning posted:Yang seems to understand that we have BIG problems that require BIG solutions. That’s good. Yang is basically a Hollywood Movie Protagonist idealization of a Silicon Valley Magnate, but actually real. Complete with the subtle insidiousness and kind of fundamentally inhuman and self-aggrandizing outlook on human society.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:36
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Yang is pretty centrist as far as his brand goes, he's just not the kind of centrist that a twitter donut/khiver is. He'd definitely not as left as Bernie unless he's actually some secret 12th dimensional socialist checkers attempt hiding his true power level, but his voters are the kind of people who would be really receptive to someone like Bernie because they know something is hosed up in the current system and are looking for someone offering to do something to fix that. YangGangers will go with Bernie should Yang fall short in Iowa (which I find likely).
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Feb 3, 2020 07:38
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squirrelzipper posted:Momentum. Which is consultant speak for money. Winning in Iowa results in people giving you money because everyone likes to back a winner. It’s not the only benefit of placing first but it’s a significant one. Yea but did she have shady money billionaire super pacs backing her back then?
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Feb 3, 2020 07:39
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Sanguinia posted:Yang is basically a Hollywood Movie Protagonist idealization of a Silicon Valley Magnate, but actually real. Complete with the subtle insidiousness and kind of fundamentally inhuman and self-aggrandizing outlook on human society. Yang is too poor to be a real Silicon Valley Magnate. quote:Net worth His net worth is less than 5 million.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:42
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The focus on the first state of a primary really feels like a shortcoming of the general process. I've read a couple pieces around online that are basically "why iowa, well why not iowa?" but they all seem to propose the only possible solution is simply picking a different fixed order. The entire argument is "if not iowa, then who else". And it's like I dunno, we don't do it state by state in the full on election, clearly there are other hypothetical ways to do it. Maybe I'm just a tad bitter cause I'm in WA and our primary might as well not exist but it's like drat how has this not been addressed? If state by state is necessary, do a lottery, if not, do it at once, current system blows.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:48
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Regardless of what happens tomorrow caucuses are stupid Byzantine garbage that should be abolished posthaste and anyone that thinks they're good fully deserves death by climate apocalypse/execution by Bernie's socialist death squads.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:48
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Kraftwerk posted:If losing Iowa doesn’t matter that much, what does winning it get you? As people have mentioned, it's the idea of electability. Right now, Biden has an advantage with the "electability" voter. Bernie is probably second. Warren and Buttigieg far behind. Bernie losing to Biden probably cements Biden's electability argument. Bernie or Biden losing to Warren or Buttigieg probably means an even more wide open primary, but not a fatal blow.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:53
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:I would like to announce my campaign for president and am accepting volunteers exclusively via the SA forums Eh, I’m horny/lonely enough and you’re probably more trustworthy than the average rando bear MSDOS KAPITAL posted:lol I just checked and turns out I am blocked - that's pretty recent too DONATE LOSER and then bump goonpac. It’s Iowa Day Sluts! Brave New World posted:I think you've outdone yourself. I literally lol'd. Oh my loving god Sanguinia posted:Yang is basically a Hollywood Movie Protagonist idealization of a Silicon Valley Magnate, but actually real. Complete with the subtle insidiousness and kind of fundamentally inhuman and self-aggrandizing outlook on human society. Yang is the Infinite Earths Tony Stark from a universe where superheroes aren’t real and instead of being a billionaire weapons and tech tycoon, Tony Stark’s dad owned a Subway franchise. xerxus posted:Yang is too poor to be a real Silicon Valley Magnate. That explains Pizza Buffet. trilobite terror fucked around with this message at 08:00 on Feb 3, 2020 |
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Feb 3, 2020 07:58
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It's still a long weird game between swinging voters, ratfucking, cheating, momentum and bullshit. The polls are all over the place but seem to be desperately trying to hide Bernie's numbers being positive. Still reckon that Biden is a dead man walking in the long run- he has a long history of managing to do in primaries what Democrats usually wait until the general to do: snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Feb 3, 2020 08:00
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Paradoxish posted:He's worse now, but he was always bad. People fell in love with a character created by the Onion, but real life Joe Biden is a gaffe machine that never managed to get anywhere in previous runs because he repeatedly sticks his foot in his mouth. It still blows my mind that Obama picked ol' Uncle Joe as his VP after he said some racist poo poo packaged in a compliment. Like he couldn't have picked literally anyone else? In more positive news, Barbara Lee tweeted this a few hours ago: https://twitter.com/BLeeForCongress/status/1224153030691577857 I could see her endorsing Bernie if the next few weeks go well.
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Feb 3, 2020 08:02
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:That's overstating it a bit IMO. Second in Iowa and first in NH, and he's still in it on Super Tues. The media attacks will carry more weight, but so far those have bounced off or even helped him. Then again that could easily change once voting has actually started. Losing the single state of Iowa, even with all the attention on it and even with it going first, isn't quite enough to throw in the towel. I’m not saying anyone should throw in the towel. This is too important to do anything except fight until you’re dead, but Bernie really needs the narrative of early wins to soak up voters stupid enough to support some of the dead-enders like Pete. Lots of those people are just going to flock to the winner, and it’s extremely not great if that winner is Biden. If Bernie loses Iowa then there’s a very real possibility that he’s in for an early four loss streak. Just for the record, I don’t think that’s going to happen. I’m super optimistic about today, I just don’t think it’s worthwhile to downplay the importance of early wins or pretend that Bernie isn’t still an underdog here. There’s too much unconsolidated centrist support lurking around to act like his lead is set in stone.
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Feb 3, 2020 08:08
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ArbitraryC posted:The focus on the first state of a primary really feels like a shortcoming of the general process. I've read a couple pieces around online that are basically "why iowa, well why not iowa?" but they all seem to propose the only possible solution is simply picking a different fixed order. The entire argument is "if not iowa, then who else". And it's like I dunno, we don't do it state by state in the full on election, clearly there are other hypothetical ways to do it. The history of why Iowa is kind of interesting. I won’t regurgitate it but it’s worth reading/listening about. It’s basically because photocopies didn’t exist. And yeah, it’s dumb now and should change.
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Feb 3, 2020 08:08
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