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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:Is GalaxyKlob goon made? Bad Nate just retweeted me on it and I want to route credit where it's due. don't bother, he already reads this forum
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Feb 4, 2020 00:01
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Kaal posted:538's best case scenario for Sanders would have him picking up 22/41 delegates. The forecast is that he'll pick up 14, and Biden will get 12. 538 is poo poo, we're taking half of em at a bare minimum
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Feb 4, 2020 00:01
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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:Is GalaxyKlob goon made? Bad Nate just retweeted me on it and I want to route credit where it's due. I believe someone in this thread made it
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Feb 4, 2020 00:01
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https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1224462080729931777?s=21 He’s. gonna. Win.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:01
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Son of Thunderbeast posted:Looks like a mock caucus mainly measures which campaign's supporters treat politics like a LARP while other campaigns are out working on turning out for the real thing. Or possibly it measures which campaign's internals have them desperate enough to spend effort gaming playtime caucuses just to get some good news
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Feb 4, 2020 00:01
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Biden has an incredible amount of name recognition, which is basically all it took to get George W Bush a two-termer. The fact that he's fallen so far in the polling is a huge sign for Bernie since it shifts the narrative away from Biden being the default choice and requiring any other candidate to fight for a vote. Bernie cleaning house in Iowa by any significant margin is gonna be the beginning of the end
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Feb 4, 2020 00:02
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Half of those Biden voters would move to Sanders no problem because most voters are a lot dumber than you'd think
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Feb 4, 2020 00:03
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Kaal posted:Enjoy your racist sham election I guess. Mmmm. Salty.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:03
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holy gently caress. this is the first time i have been genuinely hyped positively for a long loving time. burn them all bernie.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:04
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VitalSigns posted:Or possibly it measures which campaign's internals have them desperate enough to spend effort gaming playtime caucuses just to get some good news Oh man, you're right. I hadn't even considered that campaigns would have allocated a nonzero amount of resources to what were basically fun "this is how democracy works" classtime exercises that's a lol
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Feb 4, 2020 00:04
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Nice table of how 538's predictions change based on various win scenarios for tonight. Depending on the size of Bernie's win, 538 would have him between 46-67% after this. (But if anyone else wins, Sanders drops to 6-28%) https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/89-different-scenarios-for-what-things-could-look-like-after-iowa/
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Feb 4, 2020 00:04
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oxsnard posted:Half of those Biden voters would move to Sanders no problem because most voters are a lot dumber than you'd think Oh no, that's exactly what I mean. They would, but Bernie needs to be ahead enough for people to realize that he's the guy who's going to win, which if the caucus reflects the polling, he's going to.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:05
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Bernie seems to have won the Drake precinct.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:06
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yea obviously 'worry' about everyone in a contest like this but Biden, Yang, and even Klob voters are constantly shown to be ripe for Bernie pickups, our biggest worry should be Warren deadenders.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:07
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look at the head2heads Biden +0.4 over Trump Bernie +3 over trump
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Feb 4, 2020 00:07
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I'm gonna go buy some Woodford Reserve from the packy and Bernie Sanders better be prez by the time I'm done drinking it.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:08
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TyrantWD posted:Bernie seems to have won the Drake precinct. Yeah, that crowd for him was pretty big compared to Warren. Seemed like the Pete/Klob people didn't seem to be wanting to move to either Bernie or Warren.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:09
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atuFSv2bLa8
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Feb 4, 2020 00:10
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worried that Warren is going to over-perform tonight then stick around splitting the progressive vote, was very much hoping she'd flame out and clear the lane
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Feb 4, 2020 00:12
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https://twitter.com/katie_akin/status/1224463672594063360 https://twitter.com/katie_akin/status/1224467179569123328 https://twitter.com/katie_akin/status/1224468366057975811
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Feb 4, 2020 00:12
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https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1224442119361708033?s=19 Biden is done
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Feb 4, 2020 00:14
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Feb 4, 2020 00:14
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Son of Thunderbeast posted:Oh man, you're right. I hadn't even considered that campaigns would have allocated a nonzero amount of resources to what were basically fun "this is how democracy works" classtime exercises iirc this was confirmed at the time and discussed in this thread. The Warren campaign set up a booth or something like that to get their supporters to go win the LARP election
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Feb 4, 2020 00:15
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Way early at the site. Pete. Amy Warren and Biden have shown up with supporters. Biden at the wrong site, directed him where to go. Its crazy how different people are coming together to do this thing
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Feb 4, 2020 00:15
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 The centrists are eating each other, it's glorious.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:15
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Au Revoir Shosanna posted:worried that Warren is going to over-perform tonight then stick around splitting the progressive vote, was very much hoping she'd flame out and clear the lane Chin up! If Biden, Pete, and Klob flame out, it won't matter. The only people left to pull are all the people with oatmeal for brains. All you have to do is appear stronger and they will fold to peer pressure.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:15
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PepsiOverCoke posted:Way early at the site. Pete. Amy Warren and Biden have shown up with supporters. Biden at the wrong site, directed him where to go. Its crazy how different people are coming together to do this thing Okay Bloomberg https://twitter.com/ndrnicholas/status/1224469262326288386
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Feb 4, 2020 00:15
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Inject this into my veins while I smoke some, rail some and boof some at the same time
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Feb 4, 2020 00:17
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PepsiOverCoke posted:Way early at the site. Pete. Amy Warren and Biden have shown up with supporters. Biden at the wrong site, directed him where to go. Its crazy how different people are coming together to do this thing You seem to strangely view the caucus like a stage production where the main goal is "running smoothly" as opposed to actually electing a politician to achieve political goals.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:17
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sexpig by night posted:did anyone freak out? 
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Feb 4, 2020 00:17
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What a strange and terrifying system to watch.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:18
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RIP Rat Boy
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Feb 4, 2020 00:18
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It sucks they have to try to win over dunces that took time out of their day to stand there for Klob or Yang.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:18
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My lover and I are attending the Amana, Iowa caucus and, well... I hope Bernie is doing better in other precincts.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:20
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:I made a few posts. I suppose it can qualify as a freakout We're all nervous, it's okay to be nervous because Iowa suuuuccccckkkkkssss (no offense, Iowans)
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Feb 4, 2020 00:20
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How I feel right now must be how the rest of the world feels every time the U.S.A. elects a president.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:21
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Calibanibal posted:My lover and I 
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Feb 4, 2020 00:22
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MitchPerry18/status/1224473168863207424
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Feb 4, 2020 00:22
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https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1224471326590689287?s=21
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Feb 4, 2020 00:23
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Old people are so loving stupid lmao
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Feb 4, 2020 00:23
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