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CCTV has apparently just confirmed he has died.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:03
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Forget it Jake, it's Wuhan. (doc is dead.)
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Feb 6, 2020 21:05
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:"Great job updating models" means line fitting relying entirely on the officially released Chinese numbers which are at best absolutely the bare minimum, realistically are at least half an order of magnitude and at worst are more than one orders of magnitude lagging what's actually happening? If it spreads as easily as it seems and can also transmit when you’re not showing symptoms there’s literally nothing we can do but wait for it to burn itself out by infecting basically everyone.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:06
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i am harry posted:I haven’t read this yet but I have a sub so I’ve pasted it all: 65 million dead. don't worry, the virus in our model is only very similar to coronavirus.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:07
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CCTV has no incentive to say he dead if he werent.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:11
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i will give my body and life to the virus, willingly. this way it shall be appeased, and many moons shall pass before it requires another sacrifice
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Feb 6, 2020 21:11
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Don't know if anyone here reads the Sinocism newsletter but this edition has tons of great articles and data about the outbreak and related issues: https://sinocism.com/p/reports-of-the-death-dr-li-wenliang?r=2e&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter
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Feb 6, 2020 21:13
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Play posted:i will give my body and life to the virus, willingly. this way it shall be appeased, and many moons shall pass before it requires another sacrifice This is 2020, the exchange rate for human souls to godly intervention is way more than that.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:19
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Play posted:i will give my body and life to the virus, willingly. this way it shall be appeased, and many moons shall pass before it requires another sacrifice Papa Nurgle welcomes you into the fold. This might be what kicks off Warhammer.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:21
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Bloody Hedgehog posted:Papa Nurgle welcomes you into the fold. Look I'm sick as poo poo over here too.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:22
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I hope I get the flu, how can I get infected without flying to China?
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Feb 6, 2020 21:24
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serious norman posted:I hope I get the flu, how can I get infected without flying to China?
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Feb 6, 2020 21:27
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Good news https://twitter.com/WSJopinion/status/1225514896315551744
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Feb 6, 2020 21:30
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serious norman posted:I hope I get the flu, how can I get infected without flying to China? Get 100 people to sneeze on you at the airport
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Feb 6, 2020 21:34
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Sjs00 posted:Get 100 people to sneeze on you at the airport Nah might get something else. I want this specfic flu.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:36
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serious norman posted:Nah might get something else. I want this specfic flu. Order several things from the Chinese province most likely to have infected workers? Wuhan is it?
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Feb 6, 2020 21:37
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:"Great job updating models" means line fitting relying entirely on the officially released Chinese numbers which are at best absolutely the bare minimum, realistically are at least half an order of magnitude and at worst are more than one orders of magnitude lagging what's actually happening? never trust a post with a JT avatar. yer mums a teef
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Feb 6, 2020 21:41
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:"Great job updating models" means line fitting relying entirely on the officially released Chinese numbers which are at best absolutely the bare minimum, realistically are at least half an order of magnitude and at worst are more than one orders of magnitude lagging what's actually happening? Hi. Just to clear this up: literally nothing spreads 'geometrically'. It's a ridiculous statement to make. Infections in China are obviously being under reported, by estimates between 80-95% depending on your source and the date the analysis was performed. This has nothing to do with what types of models can actually be used, but I guess... thanks for agreeing with me on this?  What I DID post was a link to examples of actual modeling that you can do for this virus. They are called exponential and sigmoidal. He updates them almost daily so you can follow along. *It doesn't matter that these are based on the numbers China has been releasing.* . These things are not related. There is use to data modeling with incomplete data. Do you want to get into that discussion? quote:yeah dude definitely Good, you can read: Viruses do not spread geometrically. mitztronic fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Feb 6, 2020 |
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Feb 6, 2020 21:43
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it's going to be real interesting when the country where everyone is armed to the teeth starts thinking that anyone sneezing is a deadly contagious zombie out to infect them
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Feb 6, 2020 21:44
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mitztronic posted:Hi. Just to clear this up: literally nothing spreads 'geometrically'. It's a ridiculous statement to make. he straight up says that they aren’t real models and chose them solely because they look nice
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Feb 6, 2020 21:52
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serious norman posted:Nah might get something else. I want this specfic flu. I've actually considered this. Can you walk into the CDC in Atlanta and ask them for a dose of corona in exchange for them studying you?
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Feb 6, 2020 21:57
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mitztronic posted:Hi. Just to clear this up: literally nothing spreads 'geometrically'. It's a ridiculous statement to make. I don't really understand this statement. If we assume that one infected person infects 2.5 people on average it's a geometric series where r = 2.5 at least as far as I can see. Of course r, whatever that number actually is, is going to change at some point once everyone that can be infected within an area has been, but it seems like a clear geometric progression to me.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:58
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PIZZA.BAT posted:he straight up says that they aren’t real models and chose them solely because they look nice Yes, I never said they were good models. I said he does a good job updating them every day. You misread my post: mitztronic posted:this guy has been doing a great job updating models: He's using actual virus transmission models in his fittings. Hope this clears everything up? There are no 'good' models right now, only layers of bad models ranging from 'completely ridiculous' (e.g. your claim of geometric) to 'scientific, but the data is incomplete' (what I posted) I still contend no virus transmit 'geometrically'. Where did you get your claim from? You seem very convinced I'd love to see your source. Nurge posted:I don't really understand this statement. If we assume that one infected person infects 2.5 people on average it's a geometric series where r = 2.5 at least as far as I can see. Of course r, whatever that number actually is, is going to change at some point once everyone that can be infected within an area has been, but it seems like a clear geometric progression to me. It's exponential*. Edit: *right now: Viral infections spread exponentially when the basic reproduction rate is greater than 1 mitztronic fucked around with this message at 22:10 on Feb 6, 2020 |
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Feb 6, 2020 22:06
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Despera posted:CCTV has no incentive to say he dead if he werent. The original article was a correction on his status when I posted it... definitely dead now.
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Feb 6, 2020 22:08
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mitztronic posted:
Yes. Geometric progression is exponential apart from one or two corner cases. I don't understand why you hate that term so much, since it fits.
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Feb 6, 2020 22:10
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Also not a great sign when the only healthy 34 year old to get it(that we know of) dies.
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Feb 6, 2020 22:24
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Here so what's the craic with these videos of people just straight up collapsing in the street? Is that the coronavirus or just people finding some video from something else, and reposting them to Twitter and saying it's coronavirus? I wish I could understand what they're saying in them but it's all Chinese to me.
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Feb 6, 2020 22:44
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Apparently that’s what happens when you experience a cytokine storm? Your lungs get flooded with antibodies and you die and shake around. How you can be walking about at that point I have absolutely no idea it’s creepy as poo poo. Also do we know if that doctor definitely had no underlying issues? 34 year old doctor is outside the realm of people you’d expect to die. Brutal.
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Feb 6, 2020 22:46
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I would imagine medical staff are high risk in general on account of being in an environment flooded with germs, and also permanently exhausted, most of the time.
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Feb 6, 2020 22:49
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I cant even imagine a world where toys and electrics products are not "made in china" we are not ready economically china is going to ate some gigantic backlash for this, and honestly, I think a lot of it is deserved, .... of course they don't deserve inhuman or racist treatment but they hosed up I think (hope) that the virus will be less letal in the western world maybe is time to start cleaning hands after entering home, wearing some gloves, ... is possible that the virus is already in our country / undetected
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Feb 6, 2020 22:51
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Bape Culture posted:Also do we know if that doctor definitely had no underlying issues? 34 year old doctor is outside the realm of people you’d expect to die. Brutal. Unfortunately even the seasonal flu does that. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/17/health/flu-ohio-teen-kaylee-roberts-death-eprise/index.html e: but yes the coronavirus is looking worse so far SpaceGoatFarts fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Feb 6, 2020 |
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Feb 6, 2020 22:59
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Are we all dead yet?
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Feb 6, 2020 23:17
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Bape Culture posted:Also do we know if that doctor definitely had no underlying issues? 34 year old doctor is outside the realm of people you’d expect to die. Brutal. Many doctors are mentally or physically broken by the time they get degree. Dealing with death on a daily basis does that to you. Surprisingly large percentage are smokers too.
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Feb 6, 2020 23:21
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Here's a thing. Data sources are at the bottom of this person's page here. https://www.2019ncov.report/
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Feb 6, 2020 23:28
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My work has an open office plan and there’s a few people with deep coughs and I’m seriously considering quitting over this plague poo poo
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Feb 6, 2020 23:29
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I suspect it is more widespread internationally than has been reported. I work for a Chinese company, currently in Brazil. All our Chinese colleagues are in China or en route back but due to be quarantined for two weeks. Some Brazilian colleagues recently returned from Beijing. It’s possible nobody was exposed but it’s also quite possible they were. Certainly a few people wandering around with some kind of flu. Now think about all the chinese companies out there and their employees all over the world. Ultimately there’s not a whole lot we can do about it other than try to drink fluid and get enough sleep, as usual.
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Feb 6, 2020 23:39
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If this poo poo is as infectious as it seems to be, and if the stories are true that it was appearing as far back as November but being ignored/covered up, it's already all over the world. Either this is a good thing, in that it's mostly not serious in the majority of people and has just presented as your average winter cold/flu, or it's a really really bad thing and we're gonna see some poo poo over the coming weeks.
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Feb 6, 2020 23:46
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r u ready to WALK posted:it's going to be real interesting when the country where everyone is armed to the teeth starts thinking that anyone sneezing is a deadly contagious zombie out to infect them If by 'real interesting' you mean gonna make watching the news awesome, I agree.
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Feb 6, 2020 23:51
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Beefeater1980 posted:It’s possible nobody was exposed but it’s also quite possible they were. Certainly a few people wandering around with some kind of flu. Keep in mind this was also a particularly bad year for the regular flu, as well as the usual seasonal colds. Hell, in my city there's also been a nasty Norovirus going around to spice things up. Chances are it isn't Corona. Myself I've had a bad off and on head cold since like the start of January. I no longer fear Coronavirus since it would have to get through this piece of poo poo rhinovirus first and it's *very* territorial.
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Feb 6, 2020 23:57
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Going to be weird when the North Koreans inherit the world because they shot anyone running a temperature.
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Feb 7, 2020 00:02
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