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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Private Witt posted:

the state hosed up the satellite SDE allocation process. So even if the Bernie camp is correct that they should be gaining 2.8 SDEs from errors, the state party fixing the satellite allocation is a net gain of 4 SDEs for Buttigieg, which is a wash with Buttigieg still winning.

Do you have a source for this part?

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Chef Boyardeez Nuts
Sep 9, 2011

The more you kick against the pricks, the more you suffer.

https://twitter.com/drmistercody/status/1225620485834072064?s=19

Private Witt
Feb 21, 2019

Trabisnikof posted:

Do you have a source for this part?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucus-satellite-votes.html

quote:

the Iowa Delegate Selection Plan to the Democratic National Committee, the exhaustive and official 78-page rule book that The New York Times used for its election night forecasting model, appears to allot state delegates by satellite caucus differently.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Wicked Them Beats posted:

No one with even an ounce of shame could ever pass as a Butt supporter. The moment I had to do the dance or pretend that I find Pete's background inspiring I'd crack the cyanide capsule in my tooth and it would be all over.

You assume that I have that ounce, sir. I do not.

At least not when it comes to politics. I have seen too much.

I lived as an elite centrist for a long time at the heart of neo-liberal power and I was instructed in their orthodoxy. Got my degree and everything. And they left just so, SO much out of my education. It was like I was trained incorrectly. As a joke. And looking back at it it's humiliating and infuriating that I was taught so little.

But it's not hard to pass as a liberal white elite if you were raised as one.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Wicked Them Beats posted:

ABC and NBC seem to be running with the "inconsistencies in the vote" story, as is MSNBC. Plus the AP is refusing to declare a winner.

Bernie is going to have a field day with this at the debate tomorrow.

I don't think he's going to start the conversation. He's going to just declare victory because of the popular vote, which is not in contention, then pivot to NH and SC and Super Tuesday and the coalition of African American, Latino, etc. proud of movement/volunteers/happy places. He's not going to fight a battle for a Pyrrhic Victory, he's going to walk it off while Pete holds a handful of poo poo ready to throw.

If Pete does throw first, just walk it off. "Yeah, well, I say the person who won the most votes wins the election. But I guess that's just me."

Hit him on policy. Always policy. Listen to Pete talk. He gets asked a question, and walks it in circles for 7 minutes.

"Mayor Pete, what do you think about X?

"Well, X is a very severe problem throughout our community. Many people from all walks of life, black, white, Latino, Jew, androids, multinational billionaire pedophile rapists, X is a concern for us all. And disproportionately, X hurts Y people the most. You know, I have a story to tell you, it's long and winding and sounds a lot like something Joe Biden would ramble 30 years ago. So X is such a really big issue, and I will fix X. Thank you."

It's a loving gift, really. But all you have to do is point to the fact that he never actually told you how to solve X, and you realize he's just a Trump-like grifter saying all the right things. Do not be fooled.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Here's the sticker you can get now if you donate:



He's going to look Pete right in his smug little rodent face tomorrow and declare himself the winner of Iowa and it will be glorious.

MJeff
Jun 2, 2011

THE LIAR

Mind_Taker posted:

I knew Bernie was running a competent campaign but holy poo poo the way he has continued to handle these attempted shivs by the DNC is impressive. He really is the only person who can beat Trump.

I guess when you've already been to the dance before, it's easier.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
A total void.
https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1225617023109140480

Uglycat
Dec 4, 2000
MORE INDISPUTABLE PROOF I AM BAD AT POSTING
---------------->

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Hey, out of curiosity, are we still the paranoid assholes? Or do facts change that?

Centrists, please respond.

I mean, I certainly don't trust the DNC. Nor, inherently, any small group of people in charge of releasing a public count. I still get a big 'false flag' (gah! I said it!) vibe about the app and other comm channels breaking down entirely, with misinfo being thrown in the mix at a steady pace to fuel the fire and make everyone think that the DNC and Pete had a plan in advance to spike the last poll and spike the results and, well, not /change/ the results, but change the /framing/ and /timing/ of the results to influence the news cycle and coronate a new establishment centrist candidate to win the popular vote with.

That seems super unlikely to me, but hey maybe my judgment is entirely suspect. And there's unconfirmed reports that 4chan might've blackfaxed the whole thing, but I ain't seen anything proving it (let alone linking it to the IRA or Trump Jr or Scott Pressler or any of the other online trolls working for the international fascist machine). The Iowa party was clearly unprepared and poo poo the bed, then the DNC itself stepped in and took charge and ....

from that moment forward, the /framing/ and /timing/ of the results were clearly carefully selected and designed to influence the news cycle and coronate a new establishment centrist candidate to win the popular vote with.

e - yeah but by some STRANGE COINCIDENCE just about every step of this seems to create maximum distrust and disunity, generally. Distrust in the integrity of the outcome and the legitimacy of any future officeholders. In a way that particularly targets 'the left', broadly. Strange, that.

Uglycat fucked around with this message at 04:52 on Feb 7, 2020

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Uglycat posted:

I mean, I certainly don't trust the DNC. Nor, inherently, any small group of people in charge of releasing a public count. I still get a big 'false flag' (gah! I said it!) vibe about the app and other comm channels breaking down entirely, with misinfo being thrown in the mix at a steady pace to fuel the fire and make everyone think that the DNC and Pete had a plan in advance to spike the last poll and spike the results and, well, not /change/ the results, but change the /framing/ and /timing/ of the results to influence the news cycle and coronate a new establishment centrist candidate to win the popular vote with.

That seems super unlikely to me, but hey maybe my judgment is entirely suspect. And there's unconfirmed reports that 4chan might've blackfaxed the whole thing, but I ain't seen anything proving it (let alone linking it to the IRA or Trump Jr or Scott Pressler or any of the other online trolls working for the international fascist machine). The Iowa party was clearly unprepared and poo poo the bed, then the DNC itself stepped in and took charge and ....

from that moment forward, the /framing/ and /timing/ of the results were clearly carefully selected and designed to influence the news cycle and coronate a new establishment centrist candidate to win the popular vote with.

Remember, only Pete's team would have had advanced notice that the app was lovely, thanks to the fact that Shadow is full of either people married to Pete campaign leadership or active Pete campaigners. The IDP was refusing to tell anyone who made the app.

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018


https://twitter.com/virgiltexas/status/1225622169775939584?s=20

Brony Car
May 22, 2014

by Cyrano4747

Cpt_Obvious posted:

It's a loving gift, really. But all you have to do is point to the fact that [Buttigieg] never actually told you how to solve X, and you realize he's just a Trump-like grifter saying all the right things. Do not be fooled.

I think Trump is less convoluted than what you just described. Trump rambles a bit, but he ultimately paints a vision of a world where white people rule unapologetically and no one has to care about the details. It's easy for a lot of people to latch on to that.

Buttigieg is different in that, like someone else here just described, he comes across as the young boss that got his position from being from a good school and who doesn't really have a plan to change anything. (It's actually like consulting, where consultants thrive by finding ways to keep life the same for the executives hiring them while pushing the cost of maintaining that sameness on to all the other parts of the company.)

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Uglycat posted:

I mean, I certainly don't trust the DNC. Nor, inherently, any small group of people in charge of releasing a public count. I still get a big 'false flag' (gah! I said it!) vibe about the app and other comm channels breaking down entirely, with misinfo being thrown in the mix at a steady pace to fuel the fire and make everyone think that the DNC and Pete had a plan in advance to spike the last poll and spike the results and, well, not /change/ the results, but change the /framing/ and /timing/ of the results to influence the news cycle and coronate a new establishment centrist candidate to win the popular vote with.

That seems super unlikely to me, but hey maybe my judgment is entirely suspect. And there's unconfirmed reports that 4chan might've blackfaxed the whole thing, but I ain't seen anything proving it (let alone linking it to the IRA or Trump Jr or Scott Pressler or any of the other online trolls working for the international fascist machine). The Iowa party was clearly unprepared and poo poo the bed, then the DNC itself stepped in and took charge and ....

from that moment forward, the /framing/ and /timing/ of the results were clearly carefully selected and designed to influence the news cycle and coronate a new establishment centrist candidate to win the popular vote with.

OK. Now, think of it this way.

Maybe they are just mistakes, right? But maybe the bias we have towards a candidate might cause us to make mistakes that align with that bias.

For example, these satellite caucuses are disproportionally beneficial to Sanders. We know this. You, I, anyone who was watching those early satellite caucuses live. But the staff may not have seen it. So, when they see 15 Bernie votes and 1 Warren for an entire district, they may be more likely to doubt it than 15 Pete and 1 Warren, if they are biased positively towards Pete. A Bernie Bro will probably see 15 Pete and 1 Warren and call foul. The question is, who is in charge of those decisions, and which ways do their biases lean?

Was the ballot stuffed? Probably not. But mistakes can be made in favor of one candidate due to bias.

Jolo
Jun 4, 2007

ive been playing with magnuts tying to change the wold as we know it

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Wicked Them Beats posted:

Here's the sticker you can get now if you donate:



He's going to look Pete right in his smug little rodent face tomorrow and declare himself the winner of Iowa and it will be glorious.

Wait I donated today do I get any swag? 🤩

Uglycat
Dec 4, 2000
MORE INDISPUTABLE PROOF I AM BAD AT POSTING
---------------->

Trabisnikof posted:

Remember, only Pete's team would have had advanced notice that the app was lovely, thanks to the fact that Shadow is full of either people married to Pete campaign leadership or active Pete campaigners. The IDP was refusing to tell anyone who made the app.

And thus, pete's team was especially invested in the app performing well on the night of the caucus.

The gently caress-up didn't serve pete's purposes. At all. He seems to have believed the results showed he won (hubris!), and wanted them to be out as quickly as possible. And it's pretty clear the fallout from this hasn't served him, even as the Establishment's thumb enters the visible frame.

e - also pete slayed biden lol this is perfect for bernie who is the rightful and inevitable winner and hey guys I have a small confession I'm bernie (but not necessarily bust) in part as a result of trauma with having been bernie or bust /in 2016/, the first general I didn't participate in. And gently caress clintons, they suxxor.

Uglycat fucked around with this message at 04:59 on Feb 7, 2020

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
Young Orc

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
Young Orc

The Glumslinger posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ericbradner/status/1225620052843458560

Harry Enten was throwing a fit until CNN acknowledged it

lol

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Uglycat posted:

And thus, pete's team was especially invested in the app performing well on the night of the caucus.

The gently caress-up didn't serve pete's purposes. At all. He seems to have believed the results showed he won (hubris!), and wanted them to be out as quickly as possible. And it's pretty clear the fallout from this hasn't served him, even as the Establishment's thumb enters the visible frame.

Is it clear? Explain.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Spaced God posted:

https://twitter.com/GoAngelo/status/1225491627730513920
Bahahahaha how the gently caress don't you know about chans in tyool 2020
Shouldn't we, uh, take a good look at this? Did loving 4chan crash the caucus?

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Cpt_Obvious posted:

OK. Now, think of it this way.

Maybe they are just mistakes, right? But maybe the bias we have towards a candidate might cause us to make mistakes that align with that bias.

For example, these satellite caucuses are disproportionally beneficial to Sanders. We know this. You, I, anyone who was watching those early satellite caucuses live. But the staff may not have seen it. So, when they see 15 Bernie votes and 1 Warren for an entire district, they may be more likely to doubt it than 15 Pete and 1 Warren, if they are biased positively towards Pete. A Bernie Bro will probably see 15 Pete and 1 Warren and call foul. The question is, who is in charge of those decisions, and which ways do their biases lean?

Was the ballot stuffed? Probably not. But mistakes can be made in favor of one candidate due to bias.

There is no difference between what you describe and an actual conspiracy though. If all the biases line up in one direction it does not matter if it is coordinated. It's like at prestige news outlets the bosses aren't giving direct 'be mean to Bernie' orders. They don't have to, the whole process for becoming someone at a prestige news outlet selects for people who will be anti Bernie all on their own.

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

cr0y posted:

Wait I donated today do I get any swag? 🤩

You gotta donate again at that link and then provide your address but you can just give another dollar or something there's no minimum.

Emmideer
Oct 20, 2011

Lovely night, no?
Grimey Drawer

Grouchio posted:

Shouldn't we, uh, take a good look at this? Did loving 4chan crash the caucus?

No.

Parakeet vs. Phone
Nov 6, 2009

Grouchio posted:

Shouldn't we, uh, take a good look at this? Did loving 4chan crash the caucus?

Eh, I'd want some real numbers on how many were calling before I got invested in it. A few dozen channers being able to gently caress things up with Baba Booey calls is more of a damning mark against the IDP and its tiny phone bank than anything else.

Otteration
Jan 4, 2014

I CAN'T SAY PRESIDENT DONALD JOHN TRUMP'S NAME BECAUSE HE'S LIKE THAT GUY FROM HARRY POTTER AND I'M AFRAID I'LL SUMMON HIM. DONALD JOHN TRUMP. YOUR FAVORITE PRESIDENT.
OUR 47TH PRESIDENT AFTER THE ONE WHO SHOWERS WITH HIS DAUGHTER DIES
Grimey Drawer

Republicans posted:

Honestly I don't think Bernie would be nearly as successful as he is right now if the DNC and liberal establishment wasn't so blatantly against him.

Why do you not think that Bernie would be nearly as successful as he is right now if the DNC and liberal establishment wasn't so blatantly against him?

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
https://twitter.com/kelleratlarge/status/1225626629042589696

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
Young Orc

yeah im going to sleep gently caress this

MJeff
Jun 2, 2011

THE LIAR

Spaced God posted:

https://twitter.com/GoAngelo/status/1225491627730513920
Bahahahaha how the gently caress don't you know about chans in tyool 2020

People roleplay as reporters, game devs, government officials, whatever you can think of on 4chan all the time, they play it 100% straight and people play along and everybody knows it's bullshit but they just do it anyway to try and stave off boredom or doing something useful for another five minutes.

bowser
Apr 7, 2007


The true measure of a nation is not the height of its walls but the depths of its integrity.

If I knew how to program I'd make a "Buttigieg Quote Generator" :v:.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Uglycat posted:

And thus, pete's team was especially invested in the app performing well on the night of the caucus.

The gently caress-up didn't serve pete's purposes. At all. He seems to have believed the results showed he won (hubris!), and wanted them to be out as quickly as possible. And it's pretty clear the fallout from this hasn't served him, even as the Establishment's thumb enters the visible frame.

Welcome to team Bernie, comrade. Please collect your sickle from Karen at the front desk.

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Uglycat posted:

And thus, pete's team was especially invested in the app performing well on the night of the caucus.

Why.

Otteration
Jan 4, 2014

I CAN'T SAY PRESIDENT DONALD JOHN TRUMP'S NAME BECAUSE HE'S LIKE THAT GUY FROM HARRY POTTER AND I'M AFRAID I'LL SUMMON HIM. DONALD JOHN TRUMP. YOUR FAVORITE PRESIDENT.
OUR 47TH PRESIDENT AFTER THE ONE WHO SHOWERS WITH HIS DAUGHTER DIES
Grimey Drawer

Grouchio posted:

Shouldn't we, uh, take a good look at this? Did loving 4chan crash the caucus?

The DNC apparently somehow forgot to host secure phone lines.

Uglycat
Dec 4, 2000
MORE INDISPUTABLE PROOF I AM BAD AT POSTING
---------------->

Office Pig posted:

Is it clear? Explain.

A popularly held conspiracy that paints him as a weasely CIA ratfucker, coupled with the visible benefit of the Establishment's thumb, in the present political climate nationally is NOT a strong position.

Bernie gon' win.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1225631530875113472
https://twitter.com/_ericblanc/status/1225632171777413120?s=20

queeb
Jun 10, 2004

m



President butt, seems like it's a possibility now.

Nominee anyways! Sanders needs that Iowa/NH momentum and it looks like it's going to Mayo.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

queeb posted:

President butt, seems like it's a possibility now.

This sort of thing leads to brokered conventions, so, no, not really.

MJeff
Jun 2, 2011

THE LIAR
I like the Biden in 4th place, at least.

rare Magic card l00k
Jan 3, 2011


President Butt isn't happening because this Iowa nonsense has already given Trump all the material he'll ever need to go "Wow, don't you like Democracy? The Democratic Party and their chosen boy Mayor Pete sure don't!"

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

queeb posted:

President butt, seems like it's a possibility now.

Nominee anyways! Sanders needs that Iowa/NH momentum and it looks like it's going to Mayo.

Nope, and also black people hate Mayor Pete. Probably shouldn't have spent his time as mayor firing and killing them.

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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




It all also distracts from that Biden lost hard, he just did God-awful.

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