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Potato Salad posted:You're forgetting precinct managers who, when there was an opportunity to flip a coin or make a rounding error, deliberately smudged the result in Pete's favor or away from Bernie's favor. Every precinct captain is a jastiger re-reg unless proven otherwise
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Feb 7, 2020 12:06
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exquisite tea posted:Don't worry about what might happen a month down the line and instead focus on what absolutely can be done within the next 5 days. If Pete can't win in NH then he's 100% done, Bernie has the polling lead and his numbers there have also gone up slightly since Iowa, so devote all your available time and energy toward making sure Cheatin' Pete loses bigly so that we can be ready for the next round of inevitable DNC bullshit. The issue will become if Bernie can't make space in the final totals that Butt still has Momentum. Bernie only gets credit if he crushes opposition.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:09
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GoutPatrol posted:The issue will become if Bernie can't make space in the final totals that Butt still has Momentum. Bernie only gets credit if he crushes opposition. The corporate media is gonna hype up whoever finishes second to Bernie from now until the end of the election no matter what. The important thing is maintaining Bernie's image as the frontrunner. If Buttigieg can't get it done in another 90% white state then he's gonna get waxed in NV and SC heading into Super Tuesday.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:13
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IMO Nevada's going to be very important, as it seems to me like the only place the centrists will really be able make a last stand against Bernie before he wins Super Tuesday in a landslide. I understand NV has close to a model Democratic Party machine built on the Las Vegas service workers unions and led by Harry Reid, and I get the feeling he'll be given the job of ratfucking Bernie and making sure either Rat Man or Biden stays viable through March 3. They'll also have longer to organize after NH and more room for the media to shape the narrative, almost 2 weeks, than they've had with the trainwreck this week. If Warren is going to drop out, it makes sense for her to do it in that span and endorse Rat Man or Biden to boost them going into Nevada. The best, maybe only strategy for a Biden nomination at this point is Warren to drop out and endorse him, the centrist media lining up hard behind him, and rigging Nevada. I suppose expecting the Dems to be smart or competent enough to pull that off is silly, but that's what I would do if I were them icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 12:31 on Feb 7, 2020 |
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Feb 7, 2020 12:13
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joepinetree posted:For the millionth time, it doesn't matter if it was pre-planned, something opportunistic, or that one in a million coincidence. The results are the same. This doesn’t make any sense. If you have a conspiracy of people doing bad poo poo then the root cause of your problem is people doing bad poo poo and you work towards removing them and preventing others from doing the same. If your problem is a systemic issue then you fix the system, up to and including tearing it down and putting in something new. You have to move beyond, “both cases are harmful” if you’re going to ever get to a long term solution. It’s like trying to claim that being slightly anemic due to poor diet and being slightly anemic due to having a rare but undiagnosed bowel cancer is totally the same because “the results are the same, you’re slightly anemic either way”.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:14
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Josh Lyman posted:The app failed because the devs aren’t really devs and they used the free distribution option meant for beta testing which limits the app to 200 users. Notably there are 1700 precincts.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:16
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Solkanar512 posted:This doesn’t make any sense. Both answers lead to people that need to be fired, which has the same solution, elect Bernie so he can fire them, so I guess I don't see much of a difference between incompetence and malice.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:16
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joepinetree posted:For the millionth time, it doesn't matter if it was pre-planned, something opportunistic, or that one in a million coincidence. The results are the same. Wrong. Just like last time, if it is a group of bad actors they may act again. People need to discuss this to remain aware of it. The Clinton manipulations last time happened across the nation. Clinton people are still actively employed across the campaigns.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:17
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Inferior Third Season posted:I'm getting more of a 2008 vibe, when Obama won the Iowa caucus and was polling 13 points ahead in New Hampshire, but they went for Hillary at the last second for seemingly no reason other than to be contrarian. They basically turned what was shaping up to be a quick primary season into the They Live fight scene that dragged on for months. It's because polling bounces are ephemeral and soft support for a candidate does not necessarily materialize into day-of voting. Buttigieg may have benefitted from Biden's collapse more than any other candidate but Bernie's numbers haven't gone down at all, in fact they've increased slightly since Iowa across all polling firms.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:22
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MJeff posted:Both answers lead to people that need to be fired, which has the same solution, elect Bernie so he can fire them, so I guess I don't see much of a difference between incompetence and malice. I think I agree with this. If this is simply due to staggering incompetence then the people involved need to be fired anyway for any reform to happen. All these democratic institutions have essentially become self-dealing machines that exist to enrich themselves and their friends. This is the type of corruption that gives us cork board conspiracies like Pete<->Shadow<->ACRONYM<->IDC<->Pod Save America<->ex-Hillary staffers
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Feb 7, 2020 12:31
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icantfindaname posted:IMO Nevada's going to be very important, as it seems to me like the only place the centrists will really be able make a last stand against Bernie before he wins Super Tuesday in a landslide. I understand NV has close to a model Democratic Party machine built on the Las Vegas service workers unions and led by Harry Reid, and I get the feeling he'll be given the job of ratfucking Bernie and making sure either Rat Man or Biden stays viable through March 3. They'll also have longer to organize after NH and more room for the media to shape the narrative, almost 2 weeks, than they've had with the trainwreck this week. If Warren is going to drop out, it makes sense for her to do it in that span and endorse Rat Man or Biden to boost them going into Nevada. The Final Boss might just be Reid, not Bloomberg i really don't get these histrionics because bernie is consistently been strong in polling for nevada and its going to take some real earth shattering upsets to possibly upend that which could happen, but i think iowa just makes biden weaker though things are still possible
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Feb 7, 2020 12:34
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Berke Negri posted:i really don't get these histrionics because bernie is consistently been strong in polling for nevada and its going to take some real earth shattering upsets to possibly upend that Well, like I said in the edit it's more that that's what I see as the most likely way for Biden to win and what the party would do if they were smart and competent, but obviously they're not, so I'm not THAT worried it's going to happen
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Feb 7, 2020 12:50
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That one poll that has Pete right behind Bernie is actually a bump for Bernie. It's Bernie 24 Pete 23 was Pete 22 Bernie 18 in their previous poll
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Feb 7, 2020 12:50
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MJeff posted:Both answers lead to people that need to be fired, which has the same solution, elect Bernie so he can fire them, so I guess I don't see much of a difference between incompetence and malice. Incompetence can be fixed by improving the system to ensure you don’t have untrained and unrehearsed people running a caucus, by supplying clear examples in the caucus rule book for handing out delegates. Or simply switched out to a mail-in primary. Malicious activity is a whole different can of worms. You’re also not accounting for the possibility of systemic issues either. When a plane crashes, we care a great deal as to why do we can prevent it from happening again. There’s a massive difference between a crash caused by a surface to air missile (malice), one caused by faulty repairs (incompetence) or one caused by previously unknown fatigue issues (could be a mix of the two with a dash of “no one had any idea”). Each one of those situations results in a crashed plane but responding to them in the same way would only ensure that it happens again.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:54
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What if the system was created and perpetuated by the people who run it
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Feb 7, 2020 13:03
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does anyone have a link to any reporting that the dnc specifically pushed the app on the idp? i was sure i read that somewhere but i can't seem to find it
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Feb 7, 2020 13:10
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Carew posted:What if the system was created and perpetuated by the people who run it If you’re going to take the position that “it’s all the same” then you’re never going to bother to look deeper to see if that’s actually true or if there might be other issues at play.
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Feb 7, 2020 13:11
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Office Pig posted:You are completely wrong and you need to come to terms with what Buttigieg actually is instead of this nonsense you've conjured up for yourself.
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Feb 7, 2020 13:12
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John Wick of Dogs posted:That one poll that has Pete right behind Bernie is actually a bump for Bernie. It's Bernie 24 Pete 23 was Pete 22 Bernie 18 in their previous poll Same with the Monmouth poll that came out recently. Both have been more favorable to Biden/Butt this entire cycle, and Bernie gained in them while not decreasing his polling in others that show him with a sizable lead.
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Feb 7, 2020 13:12
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https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/1225500000240709634?s=20
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Feb 7, 2020 13:13
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https://twitter.com/gerudoku/status/1225592170574307333?s=19
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Feb 7, 2020 13:15
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Uglycat posted:And same for Bernie. What the gently caress is this.
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Feb 7, 2020 13:18
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amaru_chulla posted:What the gently caress is this. It's uglycat This is magnificent, enigma of amigara fault gags are great but this is especially well done
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Feb 7, 2020 13:23
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Potato Salad posted:You're forgetting precinct managers who, when there was an opportunity to flip a coin or make a rounding error, deliberately smudged the result in Pete's favor or away from Bernie's favor. This is a few of the 1800 volunteers loving up. It's basically a standard issue part of the Iowa Caucuses that random precincts will be run by douchebags who use their power to grind a political axe or two. It's 100% not good, and one of the things that have been in the standing list of reasons to not have a caucus even before this year. However, it's not something that is part of a grander scheme to gently caress over Bernie. There were probably a few who did the same for another candidate when given the chance. Once again, 100% bad and wrong but also not part of a conspiracy. The entire structure of the Caucuses is basically set up to rely on the good faith of thousands of volunteers and party members. The result is a system that is rotten, but this round's particular issues are separate from that. The transparency safeguards put in place by Bernie last time just made existing issues more glaring. Inferior Third Season posted:I'm getting more of a 2008 vibe, when Obama won the Iowa caucus and was polling 13 points ahead in New Hampshire, but they went for Hillary at the last second for seemingly no reason other than to be contrarian. They basically turned what was shaping up to be a quick primary season into the They Live fight scene that dragged on for months. I believe that, historically, the winner of Iowa gets a bump in New Hampshire for a few days that begins to fad as New Hampshire's innate independent assholery begins to reassert itself in the face of following Iowa's lead. The bump doesn't always go away completely, but it does begin to fade somewhat quickly. There's usually a little more time between Iowa and New Hampshire, and this year's caucus clusterfuck may have delayed the entire cycle, but things are still looking good. Bernie started the week with a large lead and appears to also be getting a bump out of Iowa. Without realignments and without having to caucus, New Hampshire is looking good for the Bern. Grumpy Bloomers, Sketchy Gabbardites, Goofy Yangsters, and Biden Deadenders won't be forced to make a second choice and will instead throw their vote away instead of choosing a not-Bernie.
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Feb 7, 2020 13:24
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Uglycat posted:I do believe Pete's overwhelmingly poor support among the black community was to a degree engineered, with well-timed and targeted hit pieces (that anyone running for president should expect to be par for the course) Yea dude, PoC hate Pete because of brainwashing. Very cool post.
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Feb 7, 2020 13:31
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amaru_chulla posted:Yea dude, PoC hate Pete because of brainwashing. Very cool post. It makes perfect sense. PoC wouldn't hate Pete's guts if the media hadn't published all those articles detailing the lovely and horrible things that Pete did to PoC. What you don't know can't hurt you, afterall 
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Feb 7, 2020 13:37
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I am taking solace in the realization that polls are meaningless and so is everything else. This election cycle is turning me into a doomer
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Feb 7, 2020 13:37
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Verisimilidude posted:I am taking solace in the realization that polls are meaningless and so is everything else. This election cycle is turning me into a doomer Polls were pretty accurate in Iowa, the main miscalculation being Biden's support cratering into Pete on the second ballot. Bernie in fact performed ~4 points above his RCP aggregate.
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Feb 7, 2020 13:41
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the_steve posted:It makes perfect sense. If only they would have big brains like Ugly Cat, who can totally see right through all that misinformation and has razor sharp political acumen.
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Feb 7, 2020 13:43
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exquisite tea posted:Polls were pretty accurate in Iowa, the main miscalculation being Biden's support cratering into Pete on the second ballot. Bernie in fact performed ~4 points above his RCP aggregate. Right, it's hard to pull second alignments. Now if NH is widely different...that's an issue.
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Feb 7, 2020 14:02
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Feb 7, 2020 14:03
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Kreeblah posted:That was depressing as gently caress to watch unfold as the election results came in. I was really hoping we'd end up with a Sanders/Corbyn thing going on in 2021. It still blows my mind how Johnson managed to win just by chanting "Get Brexit done." "Get Brexit Done" also played on people's exhaustion of politics. It was a promise that whatever you thought about Brexit, you would never have to hear it 5 times a day every day again. You wouldn't have to be bombarded by daily politics and have to keep track of the byzantine and annoyingly close Parliamentary votes. (This was of course a lie) This was a a cynical attack countering Labour's promise that politics could fundamentally transform lives for the better. Another referendum would be so tiresome. The Tories said: all politicians are liars, better things aren't possible, vote for us to just finish this poo poo. Johnson actually ran a campaign of hiding from normal people and the media as much as possible and trying not to draw much attention to himself. Trump can't and won't do this. The Democrat running on 'vote for me and you will never have to hear the word Trump again' probably would be a good strategy, but would lower enthusiasm in future elections.
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Feb 7, 2020 14:06
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https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/1225653973207531525?s=20
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Feb 7, 2020 14:09
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Ague Proof posted:"Get Brexit Done" also played on people's exhaustion of politics. It was a promise that whatever you thought about Brexit, you would never have to hear it 5 times a day every day again. You wouldn't have to be bombarded by daily politics and have to keep track of the byzantine and annoyingly close Parliamentary votes. (This was of course a lie) at least sanders has actual favorable polling unlike corbyn
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Feb 7, 2020 14:15
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Solkanar512 posted:Incompetence can be fixed by improving the system to ensure you don’t have untrained and unrehearsed people running a caucus, by supplying clear examples in the caucus rule book for handing out delegates. Or simply switched out to a mail-in primary. Malicious activity is a whole different can of worms. You’re also not accounting for the possibility of systemic issues either. Another thing about having caucuses is that you cannot keep your vote private. Being seen voting for the "socialist" might change your standing in your small town or it could change the way your boss thinks about you.
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Feb 7, 2020 14:16
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unless things go absolute poo poo creek in the next month seems like bernie will win which, if you're a bernie supporter, should be the most important thing to focus on
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Feb 7, 2020 14:16
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the_steve posted:It makes perfect sense. I don't know why PoC wouldn't line up behind Pete. He scored an 86 on the Center for Urban and Racial Equity's racial justice scorecard. That's only 1 point behind Bernie!
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Feb 7, 2020 14:17
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My hope is that, in winning the nom, Bernie can fill the DNC infrastructure with his own people and change the rules, etc. Let's kill the caucus system once and for all. The DNC has the power to do this.
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Feb 7, 2020 14:19
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Berke Negri posted:at least sanders has actual favorable polling unlike corbyn Yeah people were just flat out ignoring the fact that everybody in the UK hated Corbyn. And that his overly complicated solution to the most pressing political issue wasn't very persuasive compared to his opponents single sentence solution. The situations aren't comparable at all. And of course Britain is a tiny European island nation whose primary exports are lovely prestige TV shows and weird looking actors. What happens there doesn't matter
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Feb 7, 2020 14:19
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It's amazing that the DNC refuses to acknowledge and continously screws over by far it's best Candidate and Frontrunner, because their Mean-Girl defacto leader has a grudge and doesn't like him Absolutely amazing the people who never grow out of High School
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Feb 7, 2020 14:22
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