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lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010


seems callous

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Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Nah seems reasonable

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Blut posted:

Sitting in opposition for decades doesn't achieve anything, other than a few decades of 100k a year salaries for your TDs.

Seems to be working out ok for SF right now.

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

Failed Imagineer posted:

Nah seems reasonable

If she wasn't an independent this wouldn't be happening.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

lemonadesweetheart posted:

If she wasn't an independent this wouldn't be happening.

Perhaps not, but it should

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine

Failed Imagineer posted:

Seems to be working out ok for SF right now.

SF's century on the opposition benches has resulted in them achieving jack squat policy-wise as far as running the country goes. The PDs got far more of their policies implemented, despite only having a fraction of the public support, or longevity, of SF. SF's lack of achievements are a great example of the uselessness of sitting in opposition.

Even SF themselves have come around to this view, as of late stating they're willing to accept going into coalition as a minor party - because that way they might actually at least influence the country.

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

My voter card arrived today! I can actually vote where I live now.

Actually someone help me out. I know gently caress all about the non-obvious Wicklow candidates like Harris or Donnelly.

lemonadesweetheart fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Feb 5, 2020

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009

Mine arrived yesterday. Was legitimately concerned that I might have been unregistered somehow.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
Dunno why everyone thinks you need a polling card to vote. Don't think I'm usually asked to present mine, and it's not a requirement if you have ID

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

Failed Imagineer posted:

Dunno why everyone thinks you need a polling card to vote. Don't think I'm usually asked to present mine, and it's not a requirement if you have ID

I had only just submitted my change of address when the election was announced as I just recently moved here, so I wasn't sure if I'd be stuck in my old district or not. I was aware you don't need it but this confirms that I'm registered to vote where I live.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

lemonadesweetheart posted:

I had only just submitted my change of address when the election was announced as I just recently moved here, so I wasn't sure if I'd be stuck in my old district or not. I was aware you don't need it but this confirms that I'm registered to vote where I live.

Yeah sorry, I was speaking generally. I've had to tell about half a dozen people the same thing in work this week

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Harry McGee at the Irish Times having a stab at a seat projection based on current polling and per constituency predictions (with the usual hesitancy about those final seats)

FF - 53
FG - 38
SF - 28
Greens - 14
Labour - 8
SocDems - 3
Sol-PBP - 2
Indos & Others - 14

If SF do hit high 20's in national vote share but that only translates to 17% of seats due to the geographical concentration and their candidate strategy might agitate for another election very very soon

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 13:29 on Feb 6, 2020

Foul Ole Ron
Jan 6, 2005

All of you, please don't rush, everyone do the Guybrush!
Fun Shoe

kustomkarkommando posted:

Harry McGee at the Irish Times having a stab at a seat projection based on current polling and per constituency predictions (with the usual hesitancy about those final seats)

FF - 53
FG - 38
SF - 28
Greens - 14
Labour - 8
SocDems - 3
Sol-PBP - 2
Indos & Others - 14

If SF do hit high 20's in national vote share but that only translates to 17% of seats due to the geographical concentration and their candidate strategy might agitate for another election very very soon

I'd say that the FG count is a little generous. I could see them loosing more seats (not necessarily to SF) but to the other parties and FF.

FF are really saying the right things(unfortunately) which plays into the gripes of the country (the state that public transport is in under FG, being a less vocal but still major issue for the rest of the rural country).

Could be a FF/FG coalition, or FF majority. SF will do well but the recent attacks will do damage.

Foul Ole Ron fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Feb 6, 2020

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
Electionlit becomes increasingly lit

https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1225732113372241921?s=19

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012


6 SDs seem generous, assuming this is based on SF surplses transferring left which better happen drat it

PowerBeard
Sep 4, 2011
Can't wait to see the fallout from tomorrow, but terrified to see whatever comes next with the reshuffle!

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009

I'm giddy for tomorrow. I actually have hope in politics!

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Skull Servant posted:

I'm giddy for tomorrow. I actually have hope in politics!

the polls seem to indicate continued centrist dominance though or am i misunderstanding something?

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

Get out and vote.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

lemonadesweetheart posted:

Get out and vote.

I was going to but you didn't ask nicely :colbert:

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

Failed Imagineer posted:

I was going to but you didn't ask nicely :colbert:

Gary Gannon will fail then.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

lemonadesweetheart posted:

Gary Gannon will fail then.

GG can never fail, he can only be failed. But fine then! *puts on jacket, looks at u surly*

Miftan
Mar 31, 2012

Terry knows what he can do with his bloody chocolate orange...

Best of luck today, comrades!

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
I did it, I socialism'ed all over that poor ballot.

Now I can have a little morning icecream, as a treat

e: took enormous satisfaction in hellvoting against the #MIGA #DrainTheSwamp super-racist attention-seeking clownfuck fail candidate

Failed Imagineer fucked around with this message at 11:46 on Feb 8, 2020

Aipsh
Feb 17, 2006


GLUPP SHITTO FAN CLUB PRESIDENT
Is the higher than expected turnout real or is it just people are using this as an excuse to get up earlier on the weekend and polling stations will be empty by 4pm?

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Aidan_702 posted:

Is the higher than expected turnout real or is it just people are using this as an excuse to get up earlier on the weekend and polling stations will be empty by 4pm?

I imagine at least weekend elections don't have the issue of workers voting en masse after work. Wait and see though

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

It's not a bad morning either. It will get worse later. If people have any sense they will be out voting early.

PowerBeard
Sep 4, 2011

Failed Imagineer posted:

I did it, I socialism'ed all over that poor ballot.

Now I can have a little morning icecream, as a treat

e: took enormous satisfaction in hellvoting against the #MIGA #DrainTheSwamp super-racist attention-seeking clownfuck fail candidate

It should have been #DrainTheBog

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

PowerBeard posted:

It should have been #DrainTheBog

As a Cork ex-pat, I feel victimised

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

Met an auld dear on the way back from the polling station. She told me we have to vote sinn fein and transfer left. She read it on facebook.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

lemonadesweetheart posted:

Met an auld dear on the way back from the polling station. She told me we have to vote sinn fein and transfer left. She read it on facebook.

seems TransferLeft has been really successful messaging - you love to see it

Inspector Gesicht
Oct 26, 2012

500 Zeus a body.


I'm in North Cork and I have an irrational hatred of Pa O'Driscoll. Every time I drive past his poster I give him the finger and I always punch the sign with his face on it when in Mallow. I don't even know his policies only that he's in Fine Gael. Perhaps if he didn't have such an awful portrait then the sight of him wouldn't make my blood boil.

happyhippy
Feb 21, 2005

Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup
Pillbug

lemonadesweetheart posted:

Met an auld dear on the way back from the polling station. She told me we have to vote sinn fein and transfer left. She read it on facebook.



This? Saw this on Rubberbandits FB page.

Inspector Gesicht posted:

I'm in North Cork and I have an irrational hatred of Pa O'Driscoll. Every time I drive past his poster I give him the finger and I always punch the sign with his face on it when in Mallow. I don't even know his policies only that he's in Fine Gael. Perhaps if he didn't have such an awful portrait then the sight of him wouldn't make my blood boil.

I keep seeing Solidarity's Mick Barry's posters about.
And from a distance, he looks like that gobshite Barry McElduff.
So 3-4 times on the walk to work I get reminded of the tit.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Aidan_702 posted:

Is the higher than expected turnout real or is it just people are using this as an excuse to get up earlier on the weekend and polling stations will be empty by 4pm?

I mean with the combination of the weather and the rugby and the it's a Saturday thing I'm expecting polling stations to be busier earlier this time around

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I hope the transfer left message has successfully bled through to pre-existing SF voters as well, have seen Eoin O'Broin pushing it amongst others.

Only saying that because usually like ~30% of SF votes are non transferrable (+50% when you factor in votes that only transfer to other SF candidates) with FF being the next biggest net recipient - with some people predicting SF candidates could he hitting 30% in five seaters around Dublin with one candidate (practically two quotas) a big chunk of those votes just evaporating would be infuriating

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009

V. Illych L. posted:

the polls seem to indicate continued centrist dominance though or am i misunderstanding something?

While both FF and FG still have a significant chunk of support, the combined tally for the two parties is possibly in the low 40% range. As recently as 2007 their combined support was just under 70%. Their combined seats may still equal a majority government, but the fact that they would have to work together to maintain their control is hugely significant for the country and will likely result in them losing support overall.

About to head out and vote now myself. The returning officer for Louth is reporting that turnout was just a bit under 40% at 3:30. Not sure how that compares to previous years, but maybe we will have a turnout of 70% overall if it keeps going like this. I am, of course, basing this prediction on people voting after work.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1226156746466582528?s=19

Azza Bamboo
Apr 7, 2018


THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021
I wonder how much of this election's swing will be down to the simpsons shitposting in recent years.

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009

I can't believe that our politics has been influence by the Simpsons, of all things.

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OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Solidarty-PBP-ISF coalition 2020

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