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It was risky to run the candidates they had considering a week ago the media was saying they probably won’t do as well as they were polling due to their lower preference and toxicity to transfers. Had they run this many and lost seats as the council elections indicated they would have appeared fools for not running less. Point being I guess, the media shouldn’t be listened to.
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Feb 10, 2020 01:41
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OwlFancier posted:Yeah wikipedia has given me the impression that it is Complicated. "It's Complicated" should just be printed on the flag at this point
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Feb 10, 2020 09:20
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Pretty sure SF ran more candidates in the last election and it definitely ended up hurting them.
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Feb 10, 2020 09:43
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Pretty sure SF ran more candidates in the last election and it definitely ended up hurting them. Out of curiosity, how? Do people not give all their top ranks to the same party? That's wild if you want those guys to get in. And even if they don't, can the party not publish a guide to who should get 1st preference out of their candidates?
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Feb 10, 2020 10:02
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Miftan posted:Out of curiosity, how? Do people not give all their top ranks to the same party? That's wild if you want those guys to get in. If you don't have a really good transfer strategy you end up splitting your votes across candidates and they end up losing out. It really only works if you can get one candidate well over the quota and then transfer down to a second candidate. If you end up with a split then both are below the quota and getting transfers is a crap-shoot. The discipline just wasn't there. I also don't think the country was ready at that point. I think there are a lot more first time sinn fein voters this time around. Here's some examples from 2016 https://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/dublin-south-central https://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/dublin-bay-north lemonadesweetheart fucked around with this message at 10:15 on Feb 10, 2020 |
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Feb 10, 2020 10:11
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It's strange as SF are really good at transfer management in the north
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Feb 10, 2020 10:52
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Maybe it's more to do with being less transfer friendly down here. I find people in the south are quite hypocritical about Sinn Fein in general, where they'll insist that they get equal representation up north but you couldn't elect one down here because they're all terrorists.
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Feb 10, 2020 10:54
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clear eyes full farts posted:It's strange as SF are really good at transfer management in the north this election went beyond what anyone expected for them, i think. even the exit poll somehow ended up underestimating SF support - they were playing it safe in a high-uncertainty situation.
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Feb 10, 2020 11:13
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lol getting up to speed on what happened overnight and looking like the SocDems could hit 6 and Labour 5 - merger may be off the cards
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Feb 10, 2020 11:32
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Feb 10, 2020 11:42
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Off chance Ged Nash could get back in for Louth but he's only ahead of the Greens by less than 700 votes and there's 2k sitting on a Sol-PBP candidate further down the running, if their transfers split more green (which may be likely) hell probably get pipped to a third centre-left seat Does look like O Riordain will make it back in so may be an obvious leadership contender to counter AK-47 if Howlin is made to go
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Feb 10, 2020 11:42
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lemonadesweetheart posted:If you don't have a really good transfer strategy you end up splitting your votes across candidates and they end up losing out. It really only works if you can get one candidate well over the quota and then transfer down to a second candidate. If you end up with a split then both are below the quota and getting transfers is a crap-shoot. The discipline just wasn't there. I also don't think the country was ready at that point. I think there are a lot more first time sinn fein voters this time around. Wait a minute. You have a top down distribution of 2nd preferences? (Winners shed their extra votes?) Instead of more traditional bottoms up, where losers votes are redistributed one by one, until only winners are left.
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Feb 10, 2020 11:51
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adhuin posted:Wait a minute. It's both I think. Yup confirmed. https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/elections_and_referenda/voting/proportional_representation.html#ld4f62
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Feb 10, 2020 11:54
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adhuin posted:Wait a minute. Every constituency has multiple seats - a quota is calculated which is (votes/available seats +1) +1. Anyone who goes over this quota has a surplus, all votes over this surplus are then transferred to other candidates - you knock out the lowest ranking candidates after surpluses are redistributed or if there are none to redistribute. Not everyone goes over quota and usually in the closing stages of a count it's all just a matter of knocking out people at the bottom
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Feb 10, 2020 11:57
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adhuin posted:Wait a minute. Yes we use STV, not FPTP, and it's good E: as already stated, the loser votes get rolled in at the end
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Feb 10, 2020 11:59
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quote:Today I am ashamed of my country, a vast number of whose voters have intentionally or unwittingly just endorsed a fascist party. This reminds many who know Sinn Fein as puppets of the IRA Army Council of Germany in 1932, when the Nazi party became the largest in parliament: Hitler became Chancellor in January 1933 and wasted no time in establishing his brutal dictatorship. Failed Imagineer posted:Yes we use STV, not FPTP, and it's good
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Feb 10, 2020 12:02
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Guavanaut posted:You can have STV systems without redistribution of 2nd prefs from winners, just last place eliminated and recount. That doesn't make it FPTP. Sure, fine. But we don't do that, and it's not usually what people are talking about when they big up STV
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Feb 10, 2020 12:04
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I’m glad I don’t live in Willies constituency because I’d vote for him 
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Feb 10, 2020 12:05
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Failed Imagineer posted:Sure, fine. But we don't do that, and it's not usually what people are talking about when they big up STV Still a far cry from fptp
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Feb 10, 2020 12:05
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Just for added extra electoral geekery notes, if your go over the qouta on the first count your entire vote is rechecked and second Prefs counted and votes distributed proportionally based on that. But on all subsequent counts if a candidate goes over quota only the votes that put them over are looked at and redistributed. Just to add more complexity to it this is slightly different than how STV is ran in Northern Ireland where if a candidate goes over quota ALL their votes are always recounted and distributed proportional, means we wind up with weird fractional vote values
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Feb 10, 2020 12:06
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How do they calculate the calculate the threshold btw
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Feb 10, 2020 12:10
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EmmyOk posted:How do they calculate the calculate the threshold btw Total votes divided by seats +1 or something like that.
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Feb 10, 2020 12:13
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This from the women who essentially boiled the English occupation down to the Irish hitting themselves. It's gas how many of the Gammon chuds come out of the woodwork. Foul Ole Ron fucked around with this message at 12:32 on Feb 10, 2020 |
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Feb 10, 2020 12:18
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What’s minimum seats to form govt as well actually?
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Feb 10, 2020 12:25
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Miftan posted:Out of curiosity, how? Do people not give all their top ranks to the same party? That's wild if you want those guys to get in. If their votes are evenly distributed you can have situations where both are doing well but not enough to get elected, but too well to get eliminated and have their transfers pass to the remaining party candidate. EmmyOk posted:What’s minimum seats to form govt as well actually? 160 seats to fill, I think it's 80 to form a government, or maybe 81.
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Feb 10, 2020 12:35
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80 seats. The Dail added two extra seats this election.
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Feb 10, 2020 12:37
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I've not watched this but it might help: https://youtu.be/Au607qFvd4g
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Feb 10, 2020 12:37
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You can form a government with less than the majority so I'm not sure there is a minimum as long as everyone else agrees to it, like the last one.
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Feb 10, 2020 12:38
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Okay cool! That all makes sense. Wasn’t sure if it was a simple majority or super plus ya heard this gov called minority. Wonder if the bookies are doing odds on the formation
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Feb 10, 2020 12:39
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Of course they are lol https://www.paddypower.com/politics/ireland-next-general-election
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Feb 10, 2020 12:43
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Paddy Power odds on politics is just this one lad in head office who's super into it. There's nothing more than "Gerry on the third floor's gut feeling" setting these numbers.Guavanaut posted:Literally "They won a lot of votes. You know who else won a lot of votes?"
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Feb 10, 2020 13:11
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quote: Today I am ashamed of my country, a vast number of whose voters have intentionally or unwittingly just endorsed a fascist party. But people didn't vote for FG. Oh you mean SF are the Fascist party, not the political party that actually has it's roots in Fascist ideology. So you are just a moron. Carry on. In other news, Kevin "Boxer" Moran tears are delicious. https://www.thejournal.ie/kevin-boxer-moran-2-5000223-Feb2020/ My constituency of Kildare North is having some interesting results. Claire Murphy for the SD's has handily been elected, and it looks like the SF candidate will be the next in. But the other two slots are all over the place. It was looking like Frank O Rourke would get in for FF. Then it turned around to James Lawless for FF (who I went to the Inns with.) Now it has shifted to the FG candidate, so it's a vicious enough three way fight. It's a bit sad that the Green Party candidate didn't get in, but maybe next time. The Question IRL fucked around with this message at 13:22 on Feb 10, 2020 |
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Feb 10, 2020 13:15
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The Question IRL posted:quote: Yeah, someone is pushing the fascist line hard, that's the third I have heard it pushed. If there is a repeat election what is to bet that the idea that SF is the new scare line.
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Feb 10, 2020 13:24
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I just saw on ISF that Gemma O Doherty is now claiming that Mary Lou McDonald is a sleeper FF agent. So that is hilarious.
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Feb 10, 2020 13:43
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https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1226854880842846209?s=21
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Feb 10, 2020 14:13
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EmmyOk posted:I’m glad I don’t live in Willies constituency because I’d vote for him https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY4ure_GSHw
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Feb 10, 2020 14:25
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FF-FG coalition propped up by independents does seem like it'd set the stage for a full-blown SF breakthrough as a main party of government
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Feb 10, 2020 14:25
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V. Illych L. posted:FF-FG coalition propped up by independents does seem like it'd set the stage for a full-blown SF breakthrough as a main party of government It would finally take the mask off and openly admit that civil war politics are dead and that Ireland has a left/right divide just like everywhere else. so yes.
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Feb 10, 2020 14:26
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Southpaugh posted:It would finally take the mask off and openly admit that civil war politics are dead and that Ireland has a left/right divide just like everywhere else. so yes. I do sometimes get a chuckle from people talking up SF as the end of civil war politics while they cosplay as volunteers in slouch hats and drive horse drawn carriage around while tweeting photos demonstrating they represent the real revolutionary continuity from 1918
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Feb 10, 2020 14:33
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I know the type play acting as Countess Markievicz. No one ever cosplays the O' Rahilly bleeding out in a gutter.
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Feb 10, 2020 14:39
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