SKULL.GIF posted:

Lolllllllololololllllololol

twoday posted:

https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1227749582467149824?s=20

can someone translate this?

triple sulk posted:

twoday posted:

https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1227749582467149824?s=20

can someone translate this?

Promethium posted:

The linked press release says that out of the 14,840 new cases in Hubei, 13,332 fall under the newly included 临床诊断 (clinical diagnosis) criteria, i.e. not confirmed via laboratory results but show all of the symptoms.

gh0stpinballa posted:

i already had a cold in december so i'm inoculated right

vyelkin posted:

ok cool lets make a quick assumption and do some math

of the cases described today, 1508 of 14,840 are lab test positive, the rest are clinical diagnosis which weren't counted in previous days' reports, that means it's just over 10% (10.16%) of cases were lab confirmed. Let's round to 10% for ease of calculations

let's make an assumption that today is a typical day in Wuhan and not some freaky outlier

taking that 10:1 ratio, that means...

the peak of Hubei's reporting under the old methodology was February 4th, when they reported 3,156 new cases that day. If we apply the 10:1 ratio, that means there were actually approximately 31,560 new cases that day

and taking the total number from yesterday, of 44,653 total confirmed cases in China, with the same ratio that would mean nearly half a million people had had the disease

even with all that, it's possible it has actually peaked in Wuhan, just from a much much much higher peak than we previously knew

I will be very curious to see if the ~1% death rate holds true with this massive increase in reported cases, or if the known death rate falls a lot as we confirm a lot of cases that were likely mild enough they didn't get prioritized for lab testing but are now being confirmed based on clinical diagnosis (apparently involving CT scans but not viral testing)

Prince Myshkin posted:

This is assuming the big spike isn't cumulative.

vyelkin posted:

ok cool lets make a quick assumption and do some math

of the cases described today, 1508 of 14,840 are lab test positive, the rest are clinical diagnosis which weren't counted in previous days' reports, that means it's just over 10% (10.16%) of cases were lab confirmed. Let's round to 10% for ease of calculations

let's make an assumption that today is a typical day in Wuhan and not some freaky outlier

taking that 10:1 ratio, that means...

Charlz Guybon posted:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227748006105055232

Prince Myshkin posted:

Need to dig into the numbers more then. 6,500 then 14,000 seems odd.

vyelkin posted:

ok cool lets make a quick assumption and do some math

of the cases described today, 1508 of 14,840 are lab test positive, the rest are clinical diagnosis which weren't counted in previous days' reports, that means it's just over 10% (10.16%) of cases were lab confirmed. Let's round to 10% for ease of calculations

let's make an assumption that today is a typical day in Wuhan and not some freaky outlier

taking that 10:1 ratio, that means...

the peak of Hubei's reporting under the old methodology was February 4th, when they reported 3,156 new cases that day. If we apply the 10:1 ratio, that means there were actually approximately 31,560 new cases that day

and taking the total number from yesterday, of 44,653 total confirmed cases in China, with the same ratio that would mean nearly half a million people had had the disease

even with all that, it's possible it has actually peaked in Wuhan, just from a much much much higher peak than we previously knew

I will be very curious to see if the ~1% death rate holds true with this massive increase in reported cases, or if the known death rate falls a lot as we confirm a lot of cases that were likely mild enough they didn't get prioritized for lab testing but are now being confirmed based on clinical diagnosis (apparently involving CT scans but not viral testing)

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

Who were the smart virology and epidemiology doctors on twitter posting about this?

vyelkin posted:

ok cool lets make a quick assumption and do some math

of the cases described today, 1508 of 14,840 are lab test positive, the rest are clinical diagnosis which weren't counted in previous days' reports, that means it's just over 10% (10.16%) of cases were lab confirmed. Let's round to 10% for ease of calculations

let's make an assumption that today is a typical day in Wuhan and not some freaky outlier

taking that 10:1 ratio, that means...

the peak of Hubei's reporting under the old methodology was February 4th, when they reported 3,156 new cases that day. If we apply the 10:1 ratio, that means there were actually approximately 31,560 new cases that day

and taking the total number from yesterday, of 44,653 total confirmed cases in China, with the same ratio that would mean nearly half a million people had had the disease

even with all that, it's possible it has actually peaked in Wuhan, just from a much much much higher peak than we previously knew

I will be very curious to see if the ~1% death rate holds true with this massive increase in reported cases, or if the known death rate falls a lot as we confirm a lot of cases that were likely mild enough they didn't get prioritized for lab testing but are now being confirmed based on clinical diagnosis (apparently involving CT scans but not viral testing)

A Gnarlacious Bro posted:

Time for a little game theory

Ringo Roadagain posted:

aren’t the other 13000+ not just from today but also previous days? so it’s more like everyday day didn’t report a quarter of cases because they were clinically diagnosed?

twoday posted:

time to post some foucault

quote:

III. DISCIPLINE
3. Panopticism
The following, according to an order published at the end of the seventeenth century, were the measures to be taken when the plague appeared in a town.

First, a strict spatial partitioning: the closing of the town and its outlying districts, a prohibition to leave the town on pain of death, the killing of all stray animals; the division of the town into distinct quarters, each governed by an intendant. Each street is placed under the authority of a syndic, who keeps it under surveillance; if he leaves the street, he will be condemned to death. On the appointed day, everyone is ordered to stay indoors: it is forbidden to leave on pain of death. The syndic himself comes to lock the door of each house from the outside; he takes the key with him and hands it over to the intendant of the quarter; the intendant keeps it until the end of the quarantine. Each family will have made its own provisions; but, for bread and wine, small wooden canals are set up between the street and the interior of the houses, thus allowing each person to receive his ration without communicating with the suppliers and other residents; meat, fish and herbs will be hoisted up into the houses with pulleys and baskets. If it is absolutely necessary to leave the house, it will be done in turn, avoiding any meeting. Only the intendants, syndics and guards will move about the streets and also, between the infected houses, from one corpse to another, the “crows”, who can be left to die: these are “people of little substance who carry the sick, bury the dead, clean and do many vile and abject offices”. It is a segmented, immobile, frozen space. Each individual is fixed in his place. And, if he moves, he does so at the risk of his life, contagion or punishment.

Inspection functions ceaselessly. The gaze is alert everywhere: “A considerable body of militia, commanded by good officers and men of substance”, guards at the gates, at the town hall and in every quarter to ensure the prompt obedience of the people and the most absolute authority of the magistrates, “as also to observe all disorder, theft and extortion”. At each of the town gates there will be an observation post; at the end of each street sentinels. Every day, the intendant visits the quarter in his charge, inquires whether the syndics have carried out their tasks, whether the inhabitants have anything to complain of; they “observe their actions”. Every day, too, the syndic goes into the street for which he is responsible; stops before each house: gets all the inhabitants to appear at the windows (those who live overlooking the courtyard will be allocated a window looking onto the street at which no one but they may show themselves); he calls each of them by name; informs himself as to the state of each and every one of them “in which respect the inhabitants will be compelled to speak the truth under pain of death”; if someone does not appear at the window, the syndic must ask why: “In this way he will find out easily enough whether dead or sick are being concealed.” Everyone locked up in his cage, everyone at his window, answering to his name and showing himself when asked — it is the great review of the living and the dead.

This surveillance is based on a system of permanent registration: reports from the syndics to the intendants, from the intendants to the magistrates or mayor At the beginning of the “lock up”, the role of each of the inhabitants present in the town is laid down, one by one; this document bears “the name, age, sex of everyone, notwithstanding his condition”: a copy is sent to the intendant of the quarter, another to the office of the town hall, another to enable the syndic to make his daily roll call. Everything that may be observed during the course of the visits — deaths, illnesses, complaints, irregularities is noted down and transmitted to the intendants and magistrates. The magistrates have complete control over medical treatment; they have appointed a physician in charge; no other practitioner may treat, no apothecary prepare medicine, no confessor visit a sick person without having received from him a written note “to prevent anyone from concealing and dealing with those sick of the contagion, unknown to the magistrates”. The registration of the pathological must be constantly centralized. The relation of each individual to his disease and to his death passes through the representatives of power, the registration they make of it, the decisions they take on it.

Five or six days after the beginning of the quarantine, the process of purifying the houses one by one is begun. All the inhabitants are made to leave; in each room “the furniture and goods” are raised from the ground or suspended from the air; perfume is poured around the room; after carefully sealing the windows, doors and even the keyholes with wax, the perfume is set alight. Finally, the entire house is closed while the perfume is consumed; those who have carried out the work are searched, as they were on entry, “in the presence of the residents of the house, to see that they did not have something on their persons as they left that they did not have on entering”. Four hours later, the residents are allowed to re-enter their homes.

This enclosed, segmented space, observed at every point, in which the individuals are inserted in a fixed place, in which the slightest movements are supervised, in which all events are recorded, in which an uninterrupted work of writing links the centre and periphery, in which power is exercised without division, according to a continuous hierarchical figure, in which each individual is constantly located, examined and distributed among the living beings, the sick and the dead — all this constitutes a compact model of the disciplinary mechanism. The plague is met by order; its function is to sort out every possible confusion: that of the disease, which is transmitted when bodies are mixed together; that of the evil, which is increased when fear and death overcome prohibitions. It lays down for each individual his place, his body, his disease and his death, his well-being, by means of an omnipresent and omniscient power that subdivides itself in a regular, uninterrupted way even to the ultimate determination of the individual, of what characterizes him, of what belongs to him, of what happens to him. Against the plague, which is a mixture, discipline brings into play its power, which is one of analysis. A whole literary fiction of the festival grew up around the plague: suspended laws, lifted prohibitions, the frenzy of passing time, bodies mingling together without respect, individuals unmasked, abandoning their statutory identity and the figure under which they had been recognized, allowing a quite different truth to appear. But there was also a political dream of the plague, which was exactly its reverse: not the collective festival, but strict divisions; not laws transgressed, but the penetration of regulation into even the smallest details of everyday life through the mediation of the complete hierarchy that assured the capillary functioning of power; not masks that were put on and taken off, but the assignment to each individual of his “true” name, his “true” place, his “true” body, his “true” disease.

etc., etc.

Bip Roberts posted:

wait if they're now counting everyone with a fever as having the coronavirus how many people out of like 40 million have a fever on any given day during normal flu season?

SKULL.GIF posted:

Lol it's going to rule so hard watching Trump tell everyone that it's all under control just the most controlled pandemic since '17, can you believe it

oxsnard posted:

https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1227523779150041094?s=20

FizFashizzle posted:

i just finished a pulmonary critical care rotation

ama

oxsnard posted:

I now believe any and all conspiracy theories about China Flu, no matter how far fetched

Bip Roberts posted:

wait if they're now counting everyone with a fever as having the coronavirus how many people out of like 40 million have a fever on any given day during normal flu season?

Spinz posted:

I'm in California which may very well be where it explodes first looks like
poo poo I'm gonna be pissed
I had fun here goons

twoday posted:

how was it?

Spinz posted:

Have I got a website for you