Coronavirus 2020 - START MAKING VENTILATORS, NOW!!!!!!

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > Coronavirus 2020 - START MAKING VENTILATORS, NOW!!!!!!

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Ringo Roadagain: Mar 27, 2010

Charlz Guybon posted:

Nope that's from today. Just look at that BNO tweet I posted further up the page. Another 6500 cases from yesterday.

https://twitter.com/ghoeberx/status/1227743726879100929

sounds like it's not but I guess we will find out tomorrow/ just seems weird that confirmed with the test would drop slightly but the confirmed diagnostically would spike so much

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:22

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 14:19

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Computer Serf posted:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

i feel like if the r0 was actually that high we would see a lot more spreading from the foreign cases. maybe in hubei province.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:23

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

Ringo Roadagain posted:

https://twitter.com/ghoeberx/status/1227743726879100929

sounds like it's not but I guess we will find out tomorrow/ just seems weird that confirmed with the test would drop slightly but the confirmed diagnostically would spike so much

Hubei Explainer

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:24

Zisky: May 6, 2003; PM me and I will show you my tits

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

i feel like if the r0 was actually that high we would see a lot more spreading from the foreign cases. maybe in hubei province.

I mean we are seeing it spread pretty quickly on that cruise ship.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:27

Ringo Roadagain: Mar 27, 2010

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

i feel like if the r0 was actually that high we would see a lot more spreading from the foreign cases. maybe in hubei province.

I don't know poo poo and even ive managed to glean that r0 changes. it even says right there

quote:

during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6

that it's during the early days. When the people who are sick don't know they have an unknown virus and the people around them don't know either and no one is taking any precaution like even simple poo poo like washing their hands.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:31

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Paper's arguing doubling time is around 3 days, but also incubation period appears to be much shorter (~4 days)

There's some awareness issues going on in the numbers (they outright note that the the time to symptom detection appears to be going down because people are hypersensitive), but most modeling thinks that the doubling time is shorter than the 6-7 days reported with initial R0 of ~2.2-2.7

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:31

i am harry: Oct 14, 2003

So what sort of rations are millions of people going to get delivered to their prison homes for the next half a month...?

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:32

Scionix: Oct 17, 2009; hoog emm xDDD

its finally time

the world needs osmosis jones 2

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:32

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

I think we'll know a lot more about the virus after it starts spreading in a not insane totalitarian state

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:33

blatman: May 10, 2009; 14 inc dont mez

Looking forward to virus-addled cruise ships to roam the seas looking for victims like the evil ghost ship from that pirate movie with the squid face dude

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:34

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

What this entire experience has taught me is that I will never ever get on a cruise ship

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:36

Zisky: May 6, 2003; PM me and I will show you my tits

Annnnd the Chinese national numbers for the day have been delayed for the second day in a row.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:37

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

Cruises are ok if you live near a port and have kids (and have a fetish for burning Marine diesel)

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:38

Burn Zone: May 22, 2004

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227816393745281024

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227816694590119939

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227824118885732352

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:39

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

These lockdowns don't actually accomplish anything, do they?

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:41

Atopian: Sep 23, 2014; I need a security perimeter with Venetian blinds.

I hope that Genocide Explainer completed his government mandated reincarnation permission form.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:41

Grizzled Patriarch: Mar 27, 2014; These dentures won't stop me from tearing out jugulars in Thunderdome.

what's the total death rate outside of china standing at now? seems like we should have a pretty solid idea of how deadly this actually is by now right?

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:43

Scionix: Oct 17, 2009; hoog emm xDDD

if anyone wanted to be reminded of the better judgement of our mods, one of them is voluntarily going on a cruise in a week

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:44

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Schnorkles posted:

What this entire experience has taught me is that I will never ever get on a cruise ship

if you need more convincing

https://harpers.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/HarpersMagazine-1996-01-0007859.pdf

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:44

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Burn Zone posted:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227816393745281024

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227816694590119939

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227824118885732352

son loi is very near hanoi, which would be a disaster if it got loose there.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:44

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

son loi is very near hanoi, which would be a disaster if it got loose there.

Yo this poo poo is going everywhere it's literally the perfect virus

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:48

Ringo Roadagain: Mar 27, 2010

Sab0921 posted:

For less fear monger-y and more academic discussions regarding the outbreak, a friend who is an ID specialist recommended these guys as follows on Twitter: Trevor Bedford, Michael Mina, Justin Lessler.

This is a good thread about working through models and hypotheses about the spread of the disease, trying link its rapid and severe spread in Hubei vs more limited transmission seen elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/JustinLessler/status/1227375168130928641?s=19

just gonna quote this post that it looks like no one paid any attention to and link the other two accounts.

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab

https://twitter.com/trvrb

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:49

Spergin Morlock: Aug 8, 2009

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

shut the gently caress up about homex morons

swine flu ended up infecting 10-20% of the world population

9-dash infected line

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:53

salisbury shake: Dec 27, 2011

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never

# ? Feb 13, 2020 06:59

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

oxsnard posted:

Yo this poo poo is going everywhere it's literally the perfect virus

yea this

btw whatever happened to india, they had a few cases and then heard nothing

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:01

upgunned shitpost: Jan 21, 2015

oxsnard posted:

Cruises are ok if you live near a port and have kids (and have a fetish for burning Marine diesel)

they're also filled with boomer orgies, like rv parks. diesel fuel, seagull poo poo and gunts all the way down.

I know this from watching tlc, the learning channel.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:01

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Xaris posted:

Containment of tens of millions of people was never going to work, at least not that late. Best optimistic estimate is 0.9% CFR (death rate) and is tremendous and 33x that of the flu. That's bad, but not apocalyptic society-failing bad. The 1917 flu only infected 25% of the population, the swine flu infected about the same; those are with r0s that (so far) were smaller and less transmittable and persistent and we're more interconnected, but I would expect it will top out around 20-35% as historical estimate.

I thought the Spanish Flu infected a third of the world population.

.333*7.8 billion = 2.6 billion*.009=23,400,000

Of course if we go by the case we know about 1,335/60,062 = .02256

.02256*2.6 billion=58,656,000

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:04

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Xaris posted:

yea this

btw whatever happened to india, they had a few cases and then heard nothing

fully possible that it doesn't spread well in warmer temperatures like every other coronavirus

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:04

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

OR

theres no infrastructure to report cases and its all over the place. CYOA

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:04

staberind: Feb 20, 2008; but i dont wanna be a spaceship; Fun Shoe

I flew a couple of times in the past few months, now I'm getting somewhat paranoid, hi r0.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:15

comedyblissoption: Mar 15, 2006

r guy living rent free under skull gif's bed

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:17

Scrub-Niggurath: Nov 27, 2007

staberind posted:

I flew a couple of times in the past few months, now I'm getting somewhat paranoid, hi r0.

if it helps you�d almost certainly feel just as bad in the universe where coronavirus wasn�t released from a secret lab, that�s just what happens when you fly during flu season

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:19

MarcusSA: Sep 23, 2007

Ringo Roadagain posted:

just gonna quote this post that it looks like no one paid any attention to and link the other two accounts.

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab

https://twitter.com/trvrb

yo none of these people have blue check marks. how can I trust them??

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:20

Laterite: Mar 14, 2007; It's Gutfest '89; Grimey Drawer

oxsnard posted:

I think we'll know a lot more about the virus after it starts spreading in a not insane totalitarian state

and where is that exactly?

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:22

Prester Jane: Nov 4, 2008; by Hand Knit

oxsnard posted:

Yo this poo poo is going everywhere it's literally the perfect virus

Yes it is, and I know why.

found an extremely relevant slate article from April 2014: A brief, terrifying history of viruses escaping from labs: 70s Chinese pandemic was a lab mistake

Slate posted:

The public health danger posed by potentially pandemic-causing viruses escaping from laboratories has become the subject of considerable discussion, spurred by “gain of function” experiments. The ostensible goal of these experiments—in which researchers manipulate already-dangerous pathogens to create or increase communicability among humans—is to develop tools to monitor the natural emergence of pandemic strains.

Opponents, however, warn in a variety of recent research papers that the risk of laboratory escape of these high-consequence pathogens far outweighs any potential advance.

The danger of a manmade pandemic sparked by a laboratory escape is not hypothetical: One occurred in 1977, and it occurred because of concern that a natural pandemic was imminent. Many other laboratory escapes of high-consequence pathogens have occurred, resulting in transmission beyond laboratory personnel. Ironically, these laboratories were working with pathogens to prevent the very outbreaks they ultimately caused. For that reason, the tragic consequences have been called “self-fulfilling prophecies.”

Modern genetic analysis allows pathogens to be precisely identified, and because all circulating pathogens show genetic changes over time, the year that a particular example of a pathogen emerged can generally be determined, given a sufficient database of samples. If a pathogen appears in nature after not circulating for years or decades, it may be assumed to have escaped from a laboratory where it had been stored inert for many years, accumulating no genetic changes—that is, its natural evolution had been frozen.

The swine flu scare of 1976 and the H1N1 human influenza pandemic of 1977. Human H1N1 influenza virus appeared with the 1918 global pandemic and persisted, slowly accumulating small genetic changes, until 1957, when it appeared to go extinct after the H2N2 pandemic virus appeared. In 1976, H1N1 swine influenza virus struck Fort Dix, N.J., causing 13 hospitalizations and one death. The specter of a reprise of the deadly 1918 pandemic triggered an unprecedented effort to immunize all Americans. No swine H1N1 pandemic materialized, however, and complications of immunization truncated the program after 48 million immunizations, which eventually caused 25 deaths.

Human H1N1 virus reappeared in 1977, in the Soviet Union and China. Virologists, using serologic and early genetic tests, soon began to suggest the cause of the reappearance was a laboratory escape of a 1949-50 virus, and as genomic techniques advanced, it became clear that this was true. By 2010, researchers published it as fact: “The most famous case of a released laboratory strain is the re-emergent H1N1 influenza-A virus which was first observed in China in May of 1977 and in Russia shortly thereafter.” The virus may have escaped from a lab attempting to prepare an attenuated H1N1 vaccine in response to the U.S. swine flu pandemic alert.

The 1977 pandemic spread rapidly worldwide but was limited to those under 20 years of age: Older persons were immune from exposures before 1957. Its attack rate was high (20 to 70 percent) in schools and military camps, but mercifully it caused mild disease, and fatalities were few. It continued to circulate until 2009, when the pH1N1 virus replaced it. There has been virtually no public awareness of the 1977 H1N1 pandemic and its laboratory origins, despite the clear analogy to current concern about a potential H5N1 or H7N9 avian influenza pandemic and “gain of function” experiments. The consequences of escape of a highly lethal avian virus with enhanced transmissibility would almost certainly be much graver than the 1977 escape of a “seasonal,” possibly attenuated strain to a population with substantial existing immunity.

SARS outbreaks after the epidemic. The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak spread to 29 countries, causing more than 8,000 infections and at least 774 deaths. Because 21 percent of cases involved hospital workers, it had the potential to shut down health care services wherever it struck. It is particularly dangerous to handle in the laboratory because there is no vaccine, and it can be transmitted via aerosols.

Moreover, about 5 percent of SARS patients are “super-spreaders” who infect eight or more secondary cases. For instance, one patient spread SARS directly to 33 others (reflecting an infection rate of 45 percent) during a hospitalization, ultimately leading to the infection of 77 people, including three secondary super-spreaders. A super-spreader could turn even a single laboratory infection into a potential pandemic.

.....

SARS has not re-emerged naturally, but there have been six escapes from virology labs: one each in Singapore and Taiwan, and four separate escapes at the same laboratory in Beijing.

.......

In April 2004, China reported a case of SARS in a nurse who had cared for a researcher at the Chinese National Institute of Virology. While ill, the researcher had traveled twice by train from Beijing to Anhui province, where she was nursed by her mother, a physician, who fell ill and died. The nurse in turn infected five third-generation cases, causing no deaths.

Subsequent investigation uncovered three unrelated laboratory infections in different researchers at the NIV. At least of two primary patients had never worked with live SARS virus. Many shortcomings in biosecurity were found at the NIV, and the specific cause of the outbreak was traced to an inadequately inactivated preparation of SARS virus that was used in general (that is, not biosecure) laboratory areas, including one where the primary cases worked. It had not been tested to confirm its safety after inactivation, as it should have been.

TLDR;

IN THE 70's China caused an H1N1 pandemic by releasing a 1949 version of the virus.
Also the Beijing lab in China has had accidental releases of SARS at least three times that we know of.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:23

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Suboptimal

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1227805086165786624

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:25

Prester Jane: Nov 4, 2008; by Hand Knit

At least 500 Wuhan medical staff infected

South China Morning Post posted:

At least 500 hospital staff in Wuhan had been infected with the deadly new strain of coronavirus by mid January, multiple medical sources have confirmed, leaving hospitals short-staffed and causing deep concern among health care workers.

While the government has reported individual cases of health care workers becoming infected, it has not provided the full picture, and the sources said doctors and nurses had been told not to make the total public.

The reason for this edict was not explained, but the authorities have been trying to boost morale among frontline medical staff, especially following the death of Li Wenliang, who was killed by the disease weeks after being reprimanded by police for warning colleagues about the new virus.

A slide circulating online, however, reveals the scale of infections among medical workers in Wuhan.

It said that by mid-January there had been about 500 confirmed cases among hospital staff with a further 600 suspected ones.

A source from a major hospital in Wuhan with knowledge of the situation confirmed that the slide was authentic.

The CCP had 1100 medical staff infected a week before they initiated the lockdown, at a point in time in which they were still claiming there was no human-to-human transmission.

Fuckit, why even bother pretending otherwise? The way the CCP has handled this fiasco makes it clear, they were screwing with a bat coronavirus and trying to increase its infectious rate, and they succeeded.

The Communist Party of China, in its infinite wisdom, just unleashed a genuine bonafide 21st century plague.

Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 07:36 on Feb 13, 2020

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:31

hifi: Jul 25, 2012

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:33

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Prester Jane posted:

At least 500 Wuhan medical staff infected

The CCP had 1100 medical staff infected a week before they initiated the lockdown, at a point in time and wish they were still claiming there was no human-to-human transmission.

Fuckit, why even bother pretending otherwise? The way the CCP has handled this guasco makes it clear, they were screwing with a bag coronavirus and trying to increase its infectious rate, and they succeeded.

The Communist Party of China, in its infinite wisdom, just unleashed a genuine bonafide 21st century plague.

Holy poo poo!
Maybe the R0 really is over 5 with that number by mid January!

How many medical staff does Wuhan normally have, because 1100 sounds like a considerable percentage.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:35

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 14:19

CODChimera: Jan 29, 2009

this poo poo is off the rails

the thread i mean

# ? Feb 13, 2020 07:36

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > Coronavirus 2020 - START MAKING VENTILATORS, NOW!!!!!!

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