Coronavirus 2021: I Threw Up On My Sheep

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mitztronic: Jun 17, 2005; mixcloud.com/mitztronic

Saros posted:

oh dear

How can they possibly say that when the R0 is as high as 5.5

# ? Feb 13, 2020 18:55

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# ? May 26, 2024 07:08

Bronze Fonz: Feb 14, 2019

Hopefully that's just the public story and in reality they're still cleaning that uber driver and car with napalm.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:00

Spinz: Jan 7, 2020; I ordered luscious new gemstones from India and made new earrings for my SA mart thread

Remember my earrings and art are much better than my posting

New stuff starts towards end of page 3 of the thread

I'm near San Diego and I'm like gently caress. The Mirimar quarantine is a joke from what I've read.
I'll get some extra stuff at Costco I guess, realistically what else can I do? Nothing

Logically this is going to hit the US hard but since we were all wrong about ebola and hurricanes and all sorts of poo poo it feels stupid to worry.
:shrug:

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:02

doctorfrog: Mar 14, 2007; Great.

Tei posted:

Somebody is going to write a book with a list of anecdotes about how the stupidity of humans has helped this spread

The first hundred or so pages of The Stand has a couple of these

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:03

Tei: Feb 19, 2011

One problem I see is that North Korea is going to have access to the virus soon. Even if they don't plan to use it, is a danger.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:05

Nurge: Feb 4, 2009; by Reene; Fun Shoe

Saros posted:

oh dear

I knew the Uber "Free french kissing with the driver" service on drives over 15 minutes was a mistake.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:07

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Spinz posted:

I'm near San Diego and I'm like gently caress. The Mirimar quarantine is a joke from what I've read.
I'll get some extra stuff at Costco I guess, realistically what else can I do? Nothing

Logically this is going to hit the US hard but since we were all wrong about ebola and hurricanes and all sorts of poo poo it feels stupid to worry.

I don't see any cause for worry at this point because there aren't cases outside quarantine. At least so far

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:09

Books On Tape: Dec 26, 2003; Future of the franchise

Serious questions.

It�s very hard for me to look at the map and feel assured that �we got this,� rather than seeing the seeds of the same trend that has consumed China, only a few weeks behind.

I�d like to hear cogent arguments for why we cannot expect to see similar progression in multiple countries as we�ve seen in Hubei, when Hubei took historically extreme measures to contain the virus and it is still burning through the population?

How in the course of the next 2-3 weeks does the virus not spread with a similar progression, given that it is likely spreading horizontally beyond detection and quarantine efforts?

6 weeks ago, there were 41 confirmed cases in Hubei.

The virus is very likely spreading beyond detection in those numbers in several countries.

It can survive on surfaces and in water droplets for at least 3 days.

It�s broken containment and PM of Singapore says focus should move past isolating each new case, and instead of optimizing healthcare response. It�s not like there are different laws of chemistry and physics in Hubei than elsewhere

What am I missing?

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:17

Bone Crimes: Mar 7, 2007

Books On Tape posted:

Serious questions.

It�s very hard for me to look at the map and feel assured that �we got this,� rather than seeing the seeds of the same trend that has consumed China, only a few weeks behind.

I�d like to hear cogent arguments for why we cannot expect to see similar progression in multiple countries as we�ve seen in Hubei, when Hubei took historically extreme measures to contain the virus and it is still burning through the population?

How in the course of the next 2-3 weeks does the virus not spread with a similar progression, given that it is likely spreading horizontally beyond detection and quarantine efforts?

6 weeks ago, there were 41 confirmed cases in Hubei.

The virus is very likely spreading beyond detection in those numbers in several countries.

It can survive on surfaces and in water droplets for at least 3 days.

It�s broken containment and PM of Singapore says focus should move past isolating each new case, and instead of optimizing healthcare response. It�s not like there are different laws of chemistry and physics in Hubei than elsewhere

What am I missing?

I don't think you're missing anything. Perhaps the heightened awareness will slow the progression, but maybe not? Once we learned that the asymptomatic phase can be 3 weeks or more, I figured it was just a matter of time before we see it all over the place.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:24

WorldsStongestNerd: Apr 28, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

Books On Tape posted:

Serious questions.

It’s very hard for me to look at the map and feel assured that “we got this,” rather than seeing the seeds of the same trend that has consumed China, only a few weeks behind.

I’d like to hear cogent arguments for why we cannot expect to see similar progression in multiple countries as we’ve seen in Hubei, when Hubei took historically extreme measures to contain the virus and it is still burning through the population?

How in the course of the next 2-3 weeks does the virus not spread with a similar progression, given that it is likely spreading horizontally beyond detection and quarantine efforts?

6 weeks ago, there were 41 confirmed cases in Hubei.

The virus is very likely spreading beyond detection in those numbers in several countries.

It can survive on surfaces and in water droplets for at least 3 days.

It’s broken containment and PM of Singapore says focus should move past isolating each new case, and instead of optimizing healthcare response. It’s not like there are different laws of chemistry and physics in Hubei than elsewhere

What am I missing?

Nothing. Dehumanize yourself and face to bloodshed.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:25

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr: Dec 22, 2018; I hope this is "battle" enough for you, friend.

Sten Freak posted:

They're under counting. Who knows what the margin of error is.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never

Based on the updated figures they're under reporting the hospital fatalities by 50%. Might not be reporting deaths outside hospitals at all.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:41

Mithaldu: Sep 25, 2007; Let's cuddle.

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr posted:

Based on the updated figures they're under reporting the hospital fatalities by 50%. Might not be reporting deaths outside hospitals at all.

Based on your understanding of them, you guess. There's nothing factual about that claim.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:47

Mozi: Apr 4, 2004; Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die; Nap Ghost

China not recording the underlying cause of death is an existing issue (this is why their reported regular flu deaths are always a minute fraction of the US's, for example). compounded here by the fact that a positive test result was needed to be counted as infected regardless of any medical diagnosis, meant that there are undeniably many deaths that were not counted. the extent of that is the question of course - going forward as they include these people in the toll, it should give us better data to work backwards to try to figure out a good guess at the actual death toll

mithaldu, maybe you need to improve your own understanding of the situation. the data they provided yesterday clearly shows that an additional 50% of the deaths were due to this new way of counting

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:47

Saros: Dec 29, 2009; Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

mitztronic posted:

How can they possibly say that when the R0 is as high as 5.5

I'm hoping that this is in response to a (stupid) journalist question about the Uber driver. Its from the Guardian and nearly everyone there is a failson who only works there because of daddy's connections. PHE should be contract tracing everyone who was in that Uber for the next two days but said journalist probably didn't ask about that.

Still that and the fact they still apparently haven't found half the people sitting near the guy on the easyJet plane from France means im rapidly downgrading my expectations of their competence.

Look out for a big rear end cluster three weeks from now in London.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:49

doctorfrog: Mar 14, 2007; Great.

Nostalgic Cashew posted:

I don't think you're missing anything. Perhaps the heightened awareness will slow the progression, but maybe not? Once we learned that the asymptomatic phase can be 3 weeks or more, I figured it was just a matter of time before we see it all over the place.

I was curious about this, so I found this article:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus
It's a short article, but here's some add'l information other than "my god 3 weeks or more":

"The median incubation period of three days is lower than the estimated 5.2 days."
"Mr Guan Weijie, a member of the research team, told Red Star News on Monday that only in very rare cases has the coronavirus incubated for 24 days, and there is no need to prolong the isolation period for suspected patients. The study, published on Sunday (Feb 9) on medical research archive medRxiv, is a prepublication paper and has not been peer-reviewed and therefore should not be used to guide clinical practice, medRxiv said."
"Absence of fever in 2019-nCoV cases was more frequent than in Sars and Mers infections, the study found. Such patients may be missed if the surveillance case definition focused heavily on fever detection, the researchers said."
"The research found that the pathogen's fatality rate was 0.88 per cent."

I've never heard of The Straits Times, and this is from a link in the Wikipedia page that mentions the longer incubation time. If anyone has anything more credible on how long the disease is asymptomatic and transmissible, I'd like to see it.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:50

Mithaldu: Sep 25, 2007; Let's cuddle.

Mozi posted:

mithaldu, maybe you need to improve your own understanding of the situation. the data they provided yesterday clearly shows that an additional 50% of the deaths were due to this new way of counting

For one, they said "are", not "were". For the other, no, we do not yet know whether the increases in coming days will start off a new baseline or whether this spike was a one-time adjustment of the totals.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:51

Mithaldu: Sep 25, 2007; Let's cuddle.

Also, if we're looking at a new baseline of new cases per day, then based on this we're in for a loving ride.

quote:

Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases.

Or, you know, the wording there means what it means in english and the person translating it from the chinese original actually knew what they were doing.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:54

Gearhead: Feb 13, 2007; The Metroid of Humor

Just going by the response China has had to this outbreak, we can tell the actual numbers were far worse than what they were reporting.

It's merely a matter of HOW much worse.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 19:57

Hopper: Dec 28, 2004; BOOING! BOOING!; Grimey Drawer

Tei posted:

One problem I see is that North Korea is going to have access to the virus soon. Even if they don't plan to use it, is a danger.

Pretty sure NK already has "Access" if you count infected population as such... and it is a danger alright, given the derelict state of everything in NK

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:01

Nurge: Feb 4, 2009; by Reene; Fun Shoe

Hopper posted:

Pretty sure NK already has "Access" if you count infected population as such... and it is a danger alright, given the derelict state of everything in NK

I don't understand where the danger comes from considering they're one of the most isolationist nations on the planet. All those NK tourists are gonna cough on people?

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:11

Sten Freak: Sep 10, 2008; Despite all of these shortcomings, the Sten still has a long track record of shooting people right in the face.; College Slice

Went back to twitter against my better judgement and saw dog clubbing videos

, done in the name to prevent virus spread. Sigh.

Also am I crazy or did Hubei hold a big festival on Jan 21st? I'm having trouble finding it now but I thought they had some giant festival of thousands of people after the flu started but before the clampdown happened.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:11

bob dobbs is dead: Oct 8, 2017; I love peeps; Nap Ghost

Nurge posted:

I don't understand where the danger comes from considering they're one of the most isolationist nations on the planet. All those NK tourists are gonna cough on people?

They live on the largess of the prc and welcome prc tourists

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:12

Nurge: Feb 4, 2009; by Reene; Fun Shoe

bob dobbs is dead posted:

They live on the largess of the prc and welcome prc tourists

PRC is where the virus is coming from. I'm saying NK getting the disease is like the least worrisome place on the planet for passing it on. Compared to say europe where it's pretty guaranteed already everywhere.

e: I've been coughing my balls off for almost two weeks now and I'm so loving tired. Can I just die from the superaids already please.

Nurge fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Feb 13, 2020

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:14

Mozi: Apr 4, 2004; Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die; Nap Ghost

this is what i was talking about about using the new data to work backwards:

https://twitter.com/GlennLuk/status/1227833661720088576?s=20

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:19

Trainee PornStar: Jul 20, 2006; I'm just an inbetweener

Play posted:

where do you live exactly?

Me & my future marauder gang would like to know this as well mate, fancy joining up?

we're obviously on the same page lol

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:29

just another: Oct 16, 2009; these dead towns that make the maps wrong now

Books On Tape posted:

Serious questions.

...

I was more concerned at the start but it's been weeks with a lot of nothing on the international front, including places we'd need to be really worried about, like India and Bangladesh.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:32

Mr.Pibbleton: Feb 3, 2006; Aleuts rock, chummer.

Day Man posted:

Learn an instrument

I have been meaning to learn the didgeridoo.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:33

Shaocaholica: Oct 29, 2002; Fig. 5E

I don't feel well I'm going to take the subway to the hospital across town.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:34

Beccara: Feb 3, 2005

Books On Tape posted:

Serious questions.

It�s very hard for me to look at the map and feel assured that �we got this,� rather than seeing the seeds of the same trend that has consumed China, only a few weeks behind.

I�d like to hear cogent arguments for why we cannot expect to see similar progression in multiple countries as we�ve seen in Hubei, when Hubei took historically extreme measures to contain the virus and it is still burning through the population?

What am I missing?

China was always going to be the extreme end of what the Virus could do for a respiratory infection, Between the airborne pollution and the smoking rates a good chunk of the population was vulnerable already. If you take a look at the WHO sit reps you can see we're potentially already on the down side run, We are now 21 days since the first spike of infections and outside of cruise ships we're seeing low counts on new infections:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200212-sitrep-23-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=41e9fb78_4

We've got a promising start on treatment protocol's and outside of China we're not seeing the fatality rate of 2% even, This does change if it gets a foothold somewhere with dense population clusters and poor healthcare tho.

It was concerning at the start as we heard things like R0=6+ and fatality rate 6%+ but as we've come to understand it then it's worse than the flu but not by much in countries with functional medical systems

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:45

Mozi: Apr 4, 2004; Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die; Nap Ghost

Beccara posted:

it's worse than the flu but not by much in countries with functional medical systems

speaking of which,
The Wuhan coronavirus has reportedly spread to North Korea. Experts say the country isn't equipped to fight it.

quote:

As the rapidly spreading Wuhan coronavirus infects people across the world, one country has remained silent about the progress of the virus within its borders: North Korea.

Although North Korean leaders have yet to report any coronavirus cases, several South Korean outlets with sources inside the country report that the pandemic has hit the isolated country. Experts are worried that the poor, isolated country could be devastated by the illness.

probably small consolation to anybody there, but at least it's not likely to spread out of north korea...

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:51

Shaocaholica: Oct 29, 2002; Fig. 5E

Mozi posted:

speaking of which,
The Wuhan coronavirus has reportedly spread to North Korea. Experts say the country isn't equipped to fight it.

probably small consolation to anybody there, but at least it's not likely to spread out of north korea...

They could just nuke the cities that are infected.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:53

Trainee PornStar: Jul 20, 2006; I'm just an inbetweener

Shaocaholica posted:

They could just nuke the cities that are infected.

You know better than that...

At the way our luck is going as a species we'd probably end up with mutant corona virus that turns you into a zombie.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:55

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Trainee PornStar posted:

Me & my future marauder gang would like to know this as well mate, fancy joining up?

we're obviously on the same page lol

ill bring the space drugs and cannibalistic tendencies, you bring the... uhh.. masks and fresh water I guess. and guns. lots of guns

# ? Feb 13, 2020 20:59

Lote: Aug 5, 2001; Place your bets

doctorfrog posted:

I was curious about this, so I found this article:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus
It's a short article, but here's some add'l information other than "my god 3 weeks or more":

"The median incubation period of three days is lower than the estimated 5.2 days."

"Mr Guan Weijie, a member of the research team, told Red Star News on Monday that only in very rare cases has the coronavirus incubated for 24 days, and there is no need to prolong the isolation period for suspected patients. The study, published on Sunday (Feb 9) on medical research archive medRxiv, is a prepublication paper and has not been peer-reviewed and therefore should not be used to guide clinical practice, medRxiv said."

"Absence of fever in 2019-nCoV cases was more frequent than in Sars and Mers infections, the study found. Such patients may be missed if the surveillance case definition focused heavily on fever detection, the researchers said."

"The research found that the pathogen's fatality rate was 0.88 per cent."

I've never heard of The Straits Times, and this is from a link in the Wikipedia page that mentions the longer incubation time. If anyone has anything more credible on how long the disease is asymptomatic and transmissible, I'd like to see it.

Straits Times is the newspaper of Singapore

# ? Feb 13, 2020 21:01

Ebola Roulette: Sep 13, 2010; No matter what you ~~win~~ ~~lose~~ ragepiss.

Saros posted:

oh dear

Lol Wtf that's some lazy contact tracing.

"well she was in the car less than 15 minutes and we told Uber what to do if he gets sick so" :shrug:

# ? Feb 13, 2020 21:05

coronavirus: Jan 27, 2020; by Cyrano4747

WorldsStongestNerd posted:

Stock up on food and any other supplies you might need.
Not because mad max is coming, but because this might very well cause a significant hiccup in the economy. Its possible stores may have a run on medication in a few months so make sure you have enough now. Prepare for your hours to be cut. Even if the virus is not that big of a deal some companies will have people stay at home if they have any cases. At this point even if the virus is no worse than the flu public fear is going to cause some disruption.

Hypothetically, once the mass infection is over in China, wouldn't this lead to an extended boom? You get rid of a bunch of retirees, younger people get some money, the market is inflated, worker wages go up, the drain of children/elderly on the system goes way down.

I don't believe this was planned by China, but I wouldn't be surprised if its a 'happy accident' for them.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 21:07

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Ebola Roulette posted:

Lol Wtf that's some lazy contact tracing.

"well she was in the car less than 15 minutes and we told Uber what to do if he gets sick so"

Can't people transmit the disease even before they're aware they have it? That's a really really strange passage, I can't imagine anyone whose job it is to stop outbreaks being so blase about an Uber driver who was potentially exposed

# ? Feb 13, 2020 21:09

Lote: Aug 5, 2001; Place your bets

coronavirus posted:

Hypothetically, once the mass infection is over in China, wouldn't this lead to an extended boom? You get rid of a bunch of retirees, younger people get some money, the market is inflated, worker wages go up, the drain of children/elderly on the system goes way down.

I don't believe this was planned by China, but I wouldn't be surprised if its a 'happy accident' for them.

So what you�re saying is

Let it spill over into schools and churches. Let the bodies piles up in the streets. ?

# ? Feb 13, 2020 21:09

Iron Crowned: May 6, 2003; by Hand Knit

coronavirus posted:

Hypothetically, once the mass infection is over in China, wouldn't this lead to an extended boom? You get rid of a bunch of retirees, younger people get some money, the market is inflated, worker wages go up, the drain of children/elderly on the system goes way down.

I don't believe this was planned by China, but I wouldn't be surprised if its a 'happy accident' for them.

Now if that would happen here, it would rule. Death to boomers

# ? Feb 13, 2020 21:10

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# ? May 26, 2024 07:08

Nurge: Feb 4, 2009; by Reene; Fun Shoe

Iron Crowned posted:

Death to ~~boomers~~ millennials.

Hopefully we run out of cytokine storm treatment options and this happens instead.

# ? Feb 13, 2020 21:19

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