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Burt Sexual posted:Yeah concern level raised, but I think I’ll be fine. If not, y’all lose a bad mod. Works out good luck have fun don’t die
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Feb 18, 2020 05:39
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If you're lucky you'll get an extra two weeks on the ship, a free future trip and 2 weeks accommodations in your home country!
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Feb 18, 2020 05:51
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Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why it isn't plausible that the virus did escape from a lab due to poor biosafety controls? I mean, the virus emerged next to a couple of labs that as far as I'm aware do research on coronavirus strains. China also has got past form in letting coronaviruses escape from labs. It's obviously not lab-engineered, but it could just as easily have escaped from a lab accidentally and not just appeared naturally in the middle of a modern city - as opposed to other places in the world where people do in fact routinely eat bats etc.
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Feb 18, 2020 06:21
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Rabelais D posted:Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why it isn't plausible that the virus did escape from a lab due to poor biosafety controls?
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Feb 18, 2020 06:27
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strange feelings re Daisy posted:I think it could have escaped from a lab although there isn't strong evidence for that yet. The implausible theory is that it was meant to be a bioweapon. "Our primary competitors are the US and the EU. Therefore we will engineer a virus that only kills East Asian people." I doubt there's any serious bioweapon research going on anywhere these days, but all the major nations do have bio divisions studying the common ones to try and figure out how to counter them. It could easily have come out of one of them via a gently caress up. Chances are higher it's just a random mutation leaping to humans from animals though. e: I mean not to mention it's a really really loving piss poor pandemic for a manufactured one. The USSR legitimately had poo poo that could have killed a large % of the people on the planet if it got out. This is like completely meaningless in comparison. Nurge fucked around with this message at 06:33 on Feb 18, 2020 |
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Feb 18, 2020 06:30
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If it did get out of a lab we'll never see any evidence, as I'm sure it's long been scrubbed away. From what I can see there are lots of question marks concerning the start of the outbreak and it seems China isn't letting WHO epidemiologists into wuhan to investigate?
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Feb 18, 2020 06:32
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Rabelais D posted:Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why it isn't plausible that the virus did escape from a lab due to poor biosafety controls? Gentle reminder that the US Ebola research laboratory is situated on the most hurricane prone island on the continental US .... #ebolahurricane #hurricaneEbola Not sure which is more catchy
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Feb 18, 2020 06:41
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I like it reading like we named the hurricane that, instead of Emily or Emilio
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Feb 18, 2020 06:51
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Rabelais D posted:Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why it isn't plausible that the virus did escape from a lab due to poor biosafety controls? The conspiracy theory that this was a bioengineered disease released from a research lab miles outside Wuhan is clearly bonkers. But I think a lot of people are conflating that with what seems like a much more plausible scenario. The Wuhan CDC is located literally within a couple hundred meters of the seafood market that was at the epicenter of the initial outbreak. Not only were they specifically doing research there on bat coronaviruses, they had at least one incident where an improperly equipped researcher got sprayed with bat urine and had to self-quarantine for 14 days - both of these were reported in Chinese state media before the outbreak. It's not impossible to imagine that either something escaped from the Wuhan CDC lab via poor hygiene control, or (unknowingly?) infected research animals were improperly disposed of, leading to cross-contamination with whatever was being sold at the market, maybe pangolins. I mean, this a country that had MULTIPLE incidents of SARS escaping from research labs and infecting people after the main epidemic. And a fair number of cases in the initial outbreak had no obvious connection to the market. But if this is the case, we'll never hear about it. The people of China are already pissed about the government's incompetence in covering up and downplaying the outbreak in the early stages. There's no way the government would risk the enormous backlash if it came out that not only had the government mismanaged the start of the outbreak, they themselves were responsible for it.
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Feb 18, 2020 07:13
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Right, thank you. I just find the geography interesting. Compared with other parts of China or indeed the world I don't think metropolitan wuhan has a massive market for bats or pangolins, but it does have virus research labs.
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Feb 18, 2020 07:31
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Rabelais D posted:Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why it isn't plausible that the virus did escape from a lab due to poor biosafety controls? Why it's not particularly plausible: it's unlikely that in a lab setting a virus that doesn't infect humans will jump species, no matter how lovely their controls are. Let's just say that some lab somewhere is investigating the natural diseases of bats and pangolins. They've collected a bunch of bat/pangolin viruses from the wild. But now they are going to be replicating those virus strains using laboratory methods, which means the viruses are basically static evolution-wise. They don't want the viruses to mutate, they want to study them as they are. And they are going to study a specific strain at a time. If no human has ever caught this disease before it's probably not going to happen there. Lastly, a biolab studying coronaviruses in china is not some crazy thing. China had SARS, lots of their virologists probably have an interest in that family of viruses. If a nasty flu outbreak started in boston nobody would think it was suspicious that harvard med was doing orthomyxovirus research. Now, let's contrast that environment with the wet market. There's the pangolin guy, he's selling pangolins to use for boner pills and getting new pangolins fresh from wherever wild pangolins come from. Some of those pangolins are sick with the pangolin-wheeze or whatever, and his cages make re-infection constant. He's around his pangolins every day. Maybe one day a year ago he got kinda sick, but it wasn't not Covid-19 yet, just a minor chest cold. He sneezed on a fresh pangolin and infects it with something that's halfway between pangolin-wheeze and Covid-19, and now it circulates through his pangolins and gets more opportunities to expose itself to humans with every mutation. This is an ideal environment for the pangolin-wheeze to mutate and cross the barrier into humans. It's the same thing as why we now share one flu with chickens and another flu with pigs. A living animal is a vastly better incubator than a petri dish.
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Feb 18, 2020 07:37
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A+ explanation, thank you
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Feb 18, 2020 07:57
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I want to sneeze on a fresh pangolin now
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Feb 18, 2020 07:58
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I wish I could find it now, but the story of how HIV became HIV and made the jump from primates to humans is a real interesting journey involving several 1 in a trillion events that managed to take place because people kept giving the virus a million chances to land those odds. As the poster above said, we primarily see these kinds of species jumps when we jam a bunch of the animals together so that they can keep re-infecting each other with a constant strain of the pathogen, while allowing the pathogen to jump to humans and back to the animals over and over again until the right series of mutations occur that allow one lucky virus to finally be able to live entirely in humans. Incidentally, this is why people from the old world were resistant to so many diseases that obliterated Native Americans when they made contact. Peoples in the Old World had all kinds of domesticated animals that they were packing together right alongside humans and thus were constantly being exposed to (and killed by) emerging pathogens. Meanwhile in the New World they didn't domesticate animals in any way close to the scale of Old World societies and thus there were less diseases to pass to the Europeans when they made contact and no resistance to the diseases that the Europeans brought with them.
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Feb 18, 2020 10:06
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Burt Sexual posted:No one loving cares dude I do as well. wtf
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Feb 18, 2020 13:29
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WorldsStongestNerd posted:I do as well. wtf loving word nerds. Pangolin tits are that way, please suck on them until you get a fever.
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Feb 18, 2020 13:35
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WorldsStongestNerd posted:I do as well. wtf pnumoman posted:loving word nerds. Pangolin tits are that way, please suck on them until you get a fever. BATTLE OF THE LURKERS ^^^^^ On page 123
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Feb 18, 2020 14:19
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Building/using germ warfare seems kinda like setting fire to your neighbor's apartment.
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Feb 18, 2020 14:23
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https://mobile.twitter.com/arambaut/status/1229368840473235462
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Feb 18, 2020 14:31
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The lab theory is moot point, you can either blame china for ... ..negligence banning consummation of wild animals. ..negligence handling very viral agents. It don't change that we blame china for negligence.
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Feb 18, 2020 14:37
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https://twitter.com/taydolven/status/1229747209270415362
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Feb 18, 2020 14:48
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Tei posted:The lab theory is moot point, you can either blame china for ... For us, yes it is a moot point. The effect it would have to Chinese citizens' view and stance towards the Chinese government could potentially be huge if it was proven to have originated in a government lab. We have already seen more Chinese citizens criticize the government over their handling of the outbreak in general and the whistleblower doctor specifically than we typically see when the party fucks something up. The continued quarantine measures and the impending economic recession or outright collapse combined with the news it escaped from a lab could generate some real and sustained anit-party feelings and protests.
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Feb 18, 2020 14:58
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Yeah, because that Cambodian
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Feb 18, 2020 14:59
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Tei posted:The lab theory is moot point, you can either blame china for ... lab grown super virus is more exciting
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Feb 18, 2020 14:59
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stephenthinkpad posted:Yeah, because that Cambodian
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Feb 18, 2020 15:06
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unpacked robinhood posted:I want to sneeze on a fresh pangolin now All over the tits.
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Feb 18, 2020 15:16
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I remember reading a New York Times article about that infected Cambodia ship written when it was still stuck at sea. It basically ended with a couple gloating about how there was no disease and how much fun they were having and that the biggest problem was that the ship ran out of ketchup. loving insane to be seeing these cases stream out now.
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Feb 18, 2020 15:20
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Egg on their face.
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Feb 18, 2020 15:41
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^No good deed goes unpunished. Also: quote:Liu Zhiming, hospital director in Wuhan, confirmed dead from coronavirus E: he was 51
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Feb 18, 2020 15:45
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stephenthinkpad posted:Yeah, because that Cambodian Remember, kids, blame Cambodia. Only Cambodia. Holland America had nothing to do with this, and certainly never dumped their passengers in a corrupt developing country with minimal healthcare. Holland America never gave blatantly false statements about the health of their passengers in a port that didn't have the infrastructure to do much checking themselves. When this all goes to hell you should blame Cambodia, Cambodians, and ignore the morally upright business that made the best choice they could. Hun Sen is one of the worst people on the planet. He's pillaging his own country in every way he can just to scrape up tiny kickbacks, and there's no doubt he'd be willing to set off a plague for the right bribe. Cambodian business/government culture leans on face and "you can never tell the boss he's wrong" in a way that makes China look free and easy, and leads to all kinds of atrocious decisions. But despite all that, the real villain here is still the for-profit company that decided to dump a bunch of sick people into one of the poorest countries on the planet.
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Feb 18, 2020 16:01
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* methodically licks a crowd of prime potential infected *
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Feb 18, 2020 16:28
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As new cases keep popping up around the world, it's clear that what is happening in China will be of secondary importance to what will happen globally. Just to pick one of today's new cases, another taxi driver in Japan (thanks Google Translate): quote:Kanagawa Prefecture and Yokohama City announced on February 18 that a 60-year-old male taxi driver living in Yokohama has been infected with the new coronavirus. In prefectures and cities, we are examining the history of the infection, as it is in a state where we cannot talk with severe pneumonia. So this poor fellow has had a fever for 15 days already - who knows when he first became infected. Or, needless to say, who he may have infected over the past weeks. And he's so sick he can't even talk to say where he's been. It's not going to be about tracing contacts anymore, but just trying to manage the huge pressure that the health system is about to be put under.
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Feb 18, 2020 16:54
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I've been reading that for a few weeks now and things still aren't blowing up.
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Feb 18, 2020 16:57
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True! Which is good, but I still don't see how this can be avoided now. I would say the difference now is that for a lot of newly infected people there is no clear link to Wuhan or to some other infected person. They just got sick somehow. That alone means there are many other people spreading the virus undetected. My uninformed guess is that as 80%+ of cases are mild there are a lot of people who have it and either have no idea, or have decided that it's safer for them personally to just deal with it and not get quarantined in a hospital for weeks on end when they're not really feeling that bad. Mozi fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Feb 18, 2020 |
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Feb 18, 2020 17:13
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Ornamental Dingbat posted:Diamond princess is officially a country on the Johns Hopkins map I expressed some deep concern about the way the virus was spreading on that boat and it turns out that's what ended up triggering the evacuation of the Americans. Something about their method of quarantine was deeply flawed, as proven by the way the new cases have just stacked and stacked. I don't blame the US government for breaking quarantine to evacuate people, given that the conditions there were terrible and somehow the virus was transmitting easily. I suppose they'll still have to figure out how that happened, I'm tempted to speculate but I won't, but what is clear is it was not working. They actually set up a mini containment lab on a plane where the infected people were kept totally separated by plastic barriers from the uninfected Mozi posted:So this poor fellow has had a fever for 15 days already - who knows when he first became infected. Or, needless to say, who he may have infected over the past weeks. And he's so sick he can't even talk to say where he's been. It could also be that he hasn't infected that many, or any, people depending on his behavior during that time. But the way he's a, uh, taxi driver, the way he was shuttled between hospitals (what if staff in those various hospitals pick it up and transmit to patients?), and the way he was sick for quite a while before actually being diagnosed with coronavirus are definitely concerning elements. It seems bad for sure but depends heavily on the way he acted during that time, whether he lives alone, etc.
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Feb 18, 2020 17:15
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just another posted:I've been reading that for a few weeks now and things still aren't blowing up. It's already blown up in Japan. 100+ cases outside of the cruise. You just need to wait the 2 weeks for the 4 horsemen to show up.
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Feb 18, 2020 17:19
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Play posted:It could also be that he hasn't infected that many, or any, people depending on his behavior during that time. But the way he's a, uh, taxi driver, the way he was shuttled between hospitals (what if staff in those various hospitals pick it up and transmit to patients?), and the way he was sick for quite a while before actually being diagnosed with coronavirus are definitely concerning elements. It seems bad for sure but depends heavily on the way he acted during that time, whether he lives alone, etc. Yeah - hopefully once he first got the fever he wasn't actually out working anymore, given how terrible the severe cases have felt that wouldn't be too surprising. But he was definitely in contact with some people in that time. My comment was more that this is one of a growing number of similar cases, which combined portend bad things.
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Feb 18, 2020 17:23
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Great job, rear end in a top hat! https://komonews.com/news/local/man-stranded-on-coronavirus-infected-cruise-ship-arrives-at-sea-tac-airport quote:SEA-TAC AIRPORT, Wash. -- An Oregon comedian who had been stranded on a Holland America cruise ship in Cambodia due to COVID-19 virus concerns managed to get a flight back home by breaking quarantine in a hotel where ship's passengers were being held pending test results.
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Feb 18, 2020 17:33
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The hospital director in Wuhan has died from SAR2z. He was 51: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/18/7cfae85e-4f6f-11ea-bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html
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Feb 18, 2020 17:33
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just another posted:I've been reading that for a few weeks now and things still aren't blowing up. To put things in perspective in the US we're at the point where China wasn't even aware of the problem and Japan is maybe at the point where doctors were aware but the gov't was still ignoring it. If things have broken out in Japan that means we either need to close all travel to Japan as well or accept that the quarantine has failed
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Feb 18, 2020 17:36
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