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Nurge posted:We don't see mass graves from yearly flu and this is a little bit more lethal than that. There's always the chance some places have their healthcare systems overwhelmed, but not most regions. its an order of magnitude more lethality, and in wuhan its 3x over that they have shoved double the number of crematoriums in wuhan and are running them 24/7
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Feb 24, 2020 18:01
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bob dobbs is dead posted:its an order of magnitude more lethality, and in wuhan its 3x over that double is not an order of magnitude.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:04
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https://twitter.com/annafifield/status/1231939687842844672
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Feb 24, 2020 18:04
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No, we need to panic, and panic hard. This is it. The killer disease that has a 0.2 percent chance to kill you if you're under 60. You're as good as dead. Personally I've bought 10 packs of ramen, 3 tunes of Pringles and two pounds of rice today. I'll fight for as long as I can.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:04
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Arsenic Lupin posted:You mean, like Yuan Yang, "@FTChina tech correspondent"? Mithaldu posted:probably in this video CRUSTY MINGE posted:I.... kinda see your argument. He spent a ton more of his time covering Taiwan and Hong Kong, shits on them about the treatment of Uighers, surveillance state tech, all that jazz. I don't see how he's a right winger, but using their tactics isn't really surprising because that's what works now. And thanks for being open.  Have to admit there's a small chance he's just one of those "humor at the expense of others" type comedians who just ends up smelling like a right winger, but like, who the gently caress follows ben shapiro other than to dunk on little ben?
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Feb 24, 2020 18:05
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bob dobbs is dead posted:they have shoved double the number of crematoriums in wuhan and are running them 24/7 for your own good, please get off twitter you're a complete mark
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Feb 24, 2020 18:06
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Looking forward to my cruise.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:07
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Burt Sexual posted:Looking forward to my cruise. bring a grill for on-board cremations
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Feb 24, 2020 18:08
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Burt Sexual posted:Looking forward to my cruise. Honestly your cruise is probably going to be safer than anywhere else. Don't worry about it too much.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:09
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Burt Sexual posted:Looking forward to my cruise. Take the captain hostage and demand his luxury suite for you and the Ms. Martial law on a cruise must happen Declare yourself King
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Feb 24, 2020 18:11
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Mithaldu posted:bring a grill for on-board cremations No need. Like car batteries, the ocean will accept any and all corpses tossed into it.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:12
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Bloody Hedgehog posted:No need. Like car batteries, the ocean will accept any and all corpses tossed into it. When you run out of food it's a time honoured maritime tradition to eat your fellow survivors.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:15
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Burt Sexual posted:Looking forward to my cruise. Bring plenty of Corona to keep the virus at bay!
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Feb 24, 2020 18:17
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I’m not running around saying the sky is falling, but I took a middle ground. Stocked with food, water, pet food, toilet paper such that we could stay in the house for 2 months, plus I’ve started seeds for 200 vegetable plants that I’ll be planting in my garden after they’ve sprouted: Spinach, kale, beets, beans, lettuce, leeks, carrots, peppers, tomatoes, asparagus, potatoes. Separately, I bought a half barrel to plant herbs in in our screened in patio. Bought a barrel to collect and store rainwater, and a plastic liner that can store 80 gallons in the tub. I cook a lot anyway and it will be great to have the veg, but could also come in handy in extending the amount of time we could stick around the ranch.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:17
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Follow the teachings of the holy Quaran' tine
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Feb 24, 2020 18:20
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Son of Rodney posted:No, we need to panic, and panic hard. This is it. The killer disease that has a 0.2 percent chance to kill you if you're under 60. You're as good as dead. Personally I've bought 10 packs of ramen, 3 tunes of Pringles and two pounds of rice today. I'll fight for as long as I can. the young will be fine, sure. peep those old people lethality rates
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Feb 24, 2020 18:29
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Books On Tape posted:it will be great to have the veg We love the veg don't we folks, love to get the veg, and the other things in some cases, and, can I say it ? If you don't look infected they let you do it, as it seems.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:29
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Mithaldu posted:
Oh no worries, can't have a discussion if we just flame each other over our opinions. I think Chappell (the guy that runs China Uncensored and America Uncensored) leans a bit more into sarcasm to get his points across. He's not interested in toe-ing the CCP line and generally harps at poo poo that doesn't make the 24hr news cycle. I'll grant that I don't watch a lot about China in the first place, but his channel offers a glimpse outside of the typical centrist and right wing news haphazardly throwing meat at the wolves. As far as Shapiro, I have no idea why he'd follow that tool aside from a "friends close, enemies closer" angle. It may be that, connection of convenience. I'm not going to defend that, because it's a terrible reason to be friendly to nazis.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:30
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Klyith posted:for your own good, please get off twitter i havent been on twitter except for what i read on sa since 2018
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Feb 24, 2020 18:30
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Feeling pretty good about my odds and feeling pretty justified in laughing at the preppers and doomsday worshippers alike. My only worries about this aren't whether I'll catch it and if I would live or not, but whether or not this will kill the older family I actually like or if my boss would do something dumb like shut us down long enough to miss out on some paychecks because using vacation and sick time is a pain in the rear end process at my work.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:32
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So Italy. Apparently they had traced the firs tinfection to a business man who went home from China and infected an amateur sports guy. This guy then infected his pregnant wife and partook in several running events went to pubs etc and probably spread it that way. Only it turns out the businessman had the ordinary flu, so they are now back at square one. (According to an article in Süddeutsche Zeitung of today). And Italy is a very popular holiday and skiing destination from Munich, which has a sizeable population wealthy enough to go there for a weekend etc. As a local, I'd estimate chances are we already have cases here that we don't know about yet. Especially since many people drive down to Italy, Venice carnival was going to take place these days etc. Let's see
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Feb 24, 2020 18:32
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bob dobbs is dead posted:the young will be fine, sure. peep those old people lethality rates Even the old people lethality rates are only known for people who actually develop symptoms though. It's likely to be lower for complete populations.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:33
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frogge posted:Feeling pretty good about my odds and feeling pretty justified in laughing at the preppers and doomsday worshippers alike. My only worries about this aren't whether I'll catch it and if I would live or not, but whether or not this will kill the older family I actually like or if my boss would do something dumb like shut us down long enough to miss out on some paychecks because using vacation and sick time is a pain in the rear end process at my work. "you yourself will live" and "there will be mass graves" are both true facts
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Feb 24, 2020 18:34
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It's only like 2000 people, like as mass graves go that's kind of modest. I don't know why they're running out of body bags given the proportions they're talking about.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:34
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Oh no worries, can't have a discussion if we just flame each other over our opinions. Word. Also, i realized i can do something useful here, let me rep this list of folks posting about china: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1180528787982884871
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Feb 24, 2020 18:36
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bob dobbs is dead posted:"you yourself will live" and "there will be mass graves" are both true facts Someone pages back said it's not predicted to hit the US in full until March, but I'm not biting my nails in anticipation of mass graves because that hasn't been the reaction in either South Korea, Japan, or Italy thus far. I don't think we'd do mass graves for a 0.2-3.6% death rate of working aged adults.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:39
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Cheaper to just torch bodies and give the ashes to the family with a big bill for services rendered rendering your loved ones into ash.Mithaldu posted:Word. Also, i realized i can do something useful here, let me rep this list of folks posting about china: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1180528787982884871 Thank you! I've been making GBS threads up twitter half the morning so I'll take some time and actually not be a giant rear end and flip through that list. Mostly making GBS threads on the markets and other dumb people like me making dumb comments.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:41
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frogge posted:Someone pages back said it's not predicted to hit the US in full until March, but I'm not biting my nails in anticipation of mass graves because that hasn't been the reaction in either South Korea, Japan, or Italy thus far. I don't think we'd do mass graves for a 0.2-3.6% death rate of working aged adults. that is tens of millions dead worldwide. it takes weeks to kill. give it a month or two
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Feb 24, 2020 18:42
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Nurge posted:Even the old people lethality rates are only known for people who actually develop symptoms though. It's likely to be lower for complete populations. Do you think flu lethality rates are calculated differently and somehow included all the symptom-less infected?
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Feb 24, 2020 18:43
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Warbadger posted:Do you think flu lethality rates are calculated differently and somehow included all the symptom-less infected? I wasn't talking about the flu. The flu strains are a known factor and we know how many people croak to them per year. Corona is a media idiot frenzy trying to make it seem like the apocalypse when it's barely a blip in global lethality rates.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:48
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Nurge posted:We don't see mass graves from yearly flu and this is a little bit more lethal than that. There's always the chance some places have their healthcare systems overwhelmed, but not most regions. This is you, talking about the flu.
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Feb 24, 2020 18:52
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Nurge posted:I wasn't talking about the flu. The flu strains are a known factor and we know how many people croak to them per year. it's going to seem like more than a blip when all the nursing homes become death camps and hospitals are too full trying to keep alive the minority of severe cases they can support to even think about helping you with your dialysis or chemotherapy. and that's even before imagining any economic consequences
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Feb 24, 2020 18:56
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Warbadger posted:Do you think flu lethality rates are calculated differently and somehow included all the symptom-less infected? We know the exact population lethality rates for the flu strains, so it's irrelevant. So your quote down there is also irrelevant. Mozi posted:it's going to seem like more than a blip when all the nursing homes become death camps and hospitals are too full trying to keep alive the minority of severe cases they can support to even think about helping you with your dialysis or chemotherapy. and that's even before imagining any economic consequences We are talking 0.02% of the population at worst. If your medical system can't handle that you're hosed either way and this is a necessary wakeup call.
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Feb 24, 2020 19:00
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bob dobbs is dead posted:that is tens of millions dead worldwide. it takes weeks to kill. give it a month or two Waiting and seeing is about all anyone can do. Funeral homes and morgues aren't overwhelmed during other seasonal illness peaks, even if covid19 is more infectious and 2-3x deadlier, I still doubt that with such low kill rates overall that we're going to have mass graves everywhere.
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Feb 24, 2020 19:01
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If the same number of people that get the flu (from mild to fatal) every year were to instead (or also) get Covid 19, which is not unreasonable since the flu vaccine prevents a large number of cases of the flu and there is no coronavirus vaccine, then the number of seriously ill and dead will be quite high. If 100,000 influenza (or pneumonia resulting from influenza) patients die with the flu's, 0.1% CFR, then Covid 19's CFR of ~2.0 percent means at least 2 million dead. This doesn't take into account second-order deaths resulting from lack of medical resources that would otherwise save people from dying,
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Feb 24, 2020 19:07
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Golli posted:If the same number of people that get the flu (from mild to fatal) every year were to instead (or also) get Covid 19, which is not unreasonable since the flu vaccine prevents a large number of cases of the flu and there is no coronavirus vaccine, then the number of seriously ill and dead will be quite high. It's nowhere near 2%
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Feb 24, 2020 19:12
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Nurge posted:We know the exact population lethality rates for the flu strains, so it's irrelevant. So your quote down there is also irrelevant. No, we calculate the lethality of flu strains based on confirmed cases of the flu, just like any other disease including Covid-19. There are many flu strains and they are not interchangeable. Nobody has a magic number generator for calculating flu lethality. Not sure how any of this validates or invalidates you denying talking about the flu less than a page after you very quotably talked about the flu... Nurge posted:It's nowhere near 2% Based on what, exactly?
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Feb 24, 2020 19:13
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Does China have their own conspiracy theories about crisis actors faking this virus
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Feb 24, 2020 19:15
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Warbadger posted:No, we calculate the lethality of flu strains based on confirmed cases of the flu, just like any other disease including Covid-19. There are many flu strains and they are not interchangeable. Nobody has a magic number generator for calculating flu lethality. We know the population lethality rates for flu, instead of transmission lethality rates. We know neither for coronavirus. Hence, the numbers are smaller than the ones reported. This is not rocket science. e: Let me make this even simpler. Case fatality rate is the absolute upper bound of what population fatality rate can be. It will be much lower than that. Nurge fucked around with this message at 19:22 on Feb 24, 2020 |
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Feb 24, 2020 19:16
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How many people get the flu each year, but don't go to the doctor to get diagnosed because the symptoms are mild or they just decide not to go? If you want to suppress the CFR covid by including anyone who may have the illness but doesn't get it diagnosed because the symptoms aren't that bad, then would need to add the same figure to the case count for the flu numbers. The data we have for both flu and covid are for reported cases of the disease. So far the CFR based on reported cases for COVID is around 2%. The CFR for Flu is about .1% If the number is much lower than 2%, I'd like to see the math on that.
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Feb 24, 2020 19:25
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