Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
The danger of the virus is economic not biological

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur
Por que no los dos?

Nurge
Feb 4, 2009

by Reene
Fun Shoe

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Por que no los dos?

gently caress off back to Spain.

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Nurge posted:

gently caress off back to Spain.

Spanish is widely spoken in Colorado, too, you know.

Fader Movitz
Sep 25, 2012

Snus, snaps och saltlakrits

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Spanish is widely spoken in Colorado, too, you know.

No that's Mexican

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

This is exactly the type of poo poo I was talking about? Like maybe it's nearly time to use some stronger language simply because it's true and despite the fact that it may affect markets?

Myriarch posted:

Bad Good news everyone! As long as you are wearing pants, the coronavirus cannot be spread by farting.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180514.shtml

so much for my virus-laden aerosol plumes :(

Hamelekim posted:

I didn't realize the range was 200 meters. Rip open public bathroom doors, or using public rest rooms.

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1231736022670684161

okay, now it's "virus-laden gaseous plumes" I don't love how they're changing it up on us

Pick posted:

The danger of the virus is economic not biological

Easy to say unless it's your particular biological meatstuff getting infected. Then it becomes very much a matter of biology and the status of your 401k fades quickly into the background

unpacked robinhood posted:

Trump Rallies ? A large amount of flabby idiots who aren't likely to follow simple rules destined to protect them, their loved ones and society in general

well turgid at the thought, mate!

Mordja posted:

Bet it's gonna turn out the Corona was just a viral marketing campaign from Huawei.

China started hearing all about this so-called "viral marketing" and really wanted to get in on the action. This whole thing started with a tragic misunderstanding of the phrase :sad:

Vegetable posted:

Does China have their own conspiracy theories about crisis actors faking this virus

The preferred conspiracy theory in China seems to be that the virus was planted by the CIA

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
Even under the old 6 phase system, Pandemic is defined as starting when you have:

sustained community-scale outbreaks in 2 countries

Right now only china fits that bill, so right now it is still the time to cooperate as much as possible and work on way countries can help each other.

WHO wants to not preemptively yell pandemic because it will lead to panic, idiocy and a type of isolationism that will only help the spread.



E: WHO also emphatically didn't say there won't be a pandemic, they very clearly said multiple times that as of yet we're not in the state of pandemic, but must prepare.

Mithaldu fucked around with this message at 20:14 on Feb 24, 2020

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



How are we not in a pandemic if there are major outbreaks on multiple continents? Isn't that the definition of a pandemic?

Bardeh
Dec 2, 2004

Fun Shoe
I have a really high fever, had a splitting headache and general feeling of...something being off on Saturday, which has now progressed to horrible wheezy cough and crackling chest. It's probably just a common or garden influenza which I'd normally not worry too much about, take some meds and rest up, but....I dunno. If it gets worse I'll probably call the NHS hotline.

Golli
Jan 5, 2013



Bardeh posted:

I have a really high fever, had a splitting headache and general feeling of...something being off on Saturday, which has now progressed to horrible wheezy cough and crackling chest. It's probably just a common or garden influenza which I'd normally not worry too much about, take some meds and rest up, but....I dunno. If it gets worse I'll probably call the NHS hotline.

The crackling chest is a classic pneumonia symptom. May want to call NHS sooner than later

Nurge
Feb 4, 2009

by Reene
Fun Shoe

Bardeh posted:

I have a really high fever, had a splitting headache and general feeling of...something being off on Saturday, which has now progressed to horrible wheezy cough and crackling chest. It's probably just a common or garden influenza which I'd normally not worry too much about, take some meds and rest up, but....I dunno. If it gets worse I'll probably call the NHS hotline.

I had mostly the same for a couple of weeks but no fever. I'd still guess it's just the flu though. Keep an eye on it and if you feel it's getting real bad hit the doctor.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Bardeh posted:

I have a really high fever, had a splitting headache and general feeling of...something being off on Saturday, which has now progressed to horrible wheezy cough and crackling chest. It's probably just a common or garden influenza which I'd normally not worry too much about, take some meds and rest up, but....I dunno. If it gets worse I'll probably call the NHS hotline.

you're dead and this post was simply the rictus jerks of your cooling body, I'm sorry

UnknownTarget
Sep 5, 2019

poverty goat posted:

How are we not in a pandemic if there are major outbreaks on multiple continents? Isn't that the definition of a pandemic?

He just gave the definition of a pandemic.

quote:

sustained community-scale outbreaks in 2 countries

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

Nurge posted:

talking 0.02% of the population at worst. If your medical system can't handle that you're hosed either way and this is a necessary wakeup call.

dude this is ridiculously not true. you just don't get it, you're not even reading what i'm writing so i won't bother try to explain this again

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:

UnknownTarget posted:

He just gave the definition of a pandemic.
:hfive:


poverty goat posted:

How are we not in a pandemic if there are major outbreaks on multiple continents? Isn't that the definition of a pandemic?

cda
Jan 2, 2010

by Hand Knit

Play posted:

okay, now it's "virus-laden gaseous plumes" I don't love how they're changing it up on us

I climbed to the attic one more time. Wilder was up there with Heinrich, whose fast glance in my direction contained a certain practiced accusation.

“They’re not calling it the feathery plume anymore,” he said, not meeting my eyes, as if to spare himself the pain of my embarrassment.

“I already knew that.”

“They’re calling it the black billowing cloud.”

“Good.”

“Why is that good?”

“It means they’re looking the thing more or less squarely in the eye. They’re on top of the situation.”

With an air of weary decisiveness, I opened the window, took the binoculars and climbed onto the ledge. I was wearing a heavy sweater and felt comfortable enough in the cold air but made certain to keep my weight tipped against the building, with my son’s outstretched hand clutching my belt. I sensed his support for my little mission, even his hopeful conviction that I might be able to add the balanced weight of a mature and considered judgment to his pure observations. This is a parent’s task, after all.

I put the glasses to my face and peered through the gathering dark. Beneath the cloud of vaporized chemicals, the scene was one of urgency and operatic chaos. Floodlights swept across the switching yard. Army helicopters hovered at various points, shining additional lights down on the scene. Colored lights from police cruisers crisscrossed these wider beams. The tank car sat solidly on tracks, fumes rising from what appeared to be a hole in one end. The coupling device from a second car had apparently pierced the tank car. Fire engines were deployed at a distance, ambulances and police vans at a greater distance. I could hear sirens, voices calling through bullhorns, a layer of radio static causing small warps in the frosty air. Men raced from one vehicle to another, unpacked equipment, carried empty stretchers. Other men in bright yellow Mylex suits and respirator masks moved slowly through the luminous haze, carrying death-measuring instruments. Snow-blowers sprayed a pink substance toward the tank car and the surrounding landscape. This thick mist arched through the air like some grand confection at a concert of patriotic music. The snow-blowers were the type used on airport runways, the police vans were the type to transport riot casualties. Smoke drifted from red beams of light into darkness and then into the breadth of scenic white floods. The men in Mylex suits moved with a lunar caution. Each step was the exercise of some anxiety not provided for by instinct. Fire and explosion were not the inherent dangers here. This death would penetrate, seep into the genes, show itself in bodies not yet born. They moved as if across a swale of moon dust, bulky and wobbling, trapped in the idea of the nature of time.

I crawled back inside with some difficulty.

“What do you think?” he said.

“It’s still hanging there. Looks rooted to the spot.”

“So you’re saying you don’t think it’ll come this way.”

“I can tell by your voice that you know something I don’t know.”

“Do you think it’ll come this way or not?”

“You want me to say it won’t come this way in a million years. Then you’ll attack with your little fistful of data. Come on, tell me what they said on the radio while I was out there.”

“It doesn’t cause nausea, vomiting, shortness of breath, like they said before.”

“What does it cause?”

“Heart palpitations and a sense of déjà vu.”

“Déjà vu?”

“It affects the false part of the human memory or whatever. That’s not all. They’re not calling it the black billowing cloud anymore.”

“What are they calling it?”

He looked at me carefully.

“The airborne toxic event.”

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020

Mithaldu posted:

Even under the old 6 phase system, Pandemic is defined as starting when you have:

sustained community-scale outbreaks in 2 countries

Right now only china fits that bill, so right now it is still the time to cooperate as much as possible and work on way countries can help each other.

WHO wants to not preemptively yell pandemic because it will lead to panic, idiocy and a type of isolationism that will only help the spread.



E: WHO also emphatically didn't say there won't be a pandemic, they very clearly said multiple times that as of yet we're not in the state of pandemic, but must prepare.

Both Korean and Japan fit that bill, also the Republic of Diamond Princess.

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:

stephenthinkpad posted:

Both Korean and Japan fit that bill, also the Republic of Diamond Princess.

how so?

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

Bardeh posted:

I have a really high fever, had a splitting headache and general feeling of...something being off on Saturday, which has now progressed to horrible wheezy cough and crackling chest. It's probably just a common or garden influenza which I'd normally not worry too much about, take some meds and rest up, but....I dunno. If it gets worse I'll probably call the NHS hotline.

I can't wait until this virus starts spreading the US because we have no equivalent of an NHS so you know tons of people are going to keep going to work and spreading it and won't see a doctor until it's way too late because of how expensive it is.

Enfys
Feb 17, 2013

The ocean is calling and I must go

Haramstufe Rot posted:

Okay let me clarify.

Assume you can invest in A and B. Assume right now both have a price of 1$ and you are holding 100$ of A.

Assume further that A is risky and might fluctuate in a crisis. It may go down to 0. In the long term, however, A will be worth 2$ while B will increase only slightly and stay around 1$. In reality, B will increase at some rate, but that doesn't matter right now.

Your logic is:
Crisis is here, let me switch my 100$ into B. You think you get 100 pieces of B, and will keep your portfolio value at 100$ since B has no risk.
This works if there is no risk consideration in the market.


But since risk is priced in, and many actors want to reduce risk (for different reasons), B is actually priced 1,25$ right now, even though in the long term it is worth 1$. This is because market actors need B to reduce their risk, especially those who don't have a long term horizon like you do. Many peeps want B, many have to buy it no matter how expensive. Demand is high, and so is price. Hence, you only get 80 pieces of B. Your portfolio is still worth 100$, of course. Your Voya account shows 100$. You happy.

Two scenarios:
1. Assume no crisis happens. If you stayed in A, you'd have 200$ instead of 100$.

2. Assume the crisis happens - A goes to 0. It seems you have saved 100 bucks. But after the crisis, A will eventually go back to 2$-x, say 1.8, and B will eventually go back down to whatever it is without crisis risk - here we assumed 1$, but it could be whatever (in reality, it will not necessarily decline but rather grow less.
The logic is the same, you can calc this with some fixed growth rates if you like).
Now you have 80$ of B, as opposed to 180$ of A.


You lose between 100 and 120-x bucks by making that trade.


Note that this is only because you try to trade WHILE the crisis is priced in.
If you would have said in the beginning that you don't want risk, you could have gotten 100xB for 100$ and you would have held 100$ the whole time (plus by whatever amount B increases as a risk free rate).


Now for extra credit, figure out how some savvy investor like, say, Voya, could make money from dudes who do what you do. Hint: Use futures of some sort.



Edit: To clarify, you only win if A will never recover again beyond 0.8$, but somehow people are still willing to buy B from you. That is, the 2$ of A has no connection to fundamental values but 1$ of B does. Then, however, you should have held B in the first place.

Furthermore, this is only realistic if A are individual stocks and B is a broad portfolio of some sort. But in Voya, both A and B will be market portfolios with different compositions, so the case that only one but not the other depresses permanently is unlikely. And if you would think that, you'd still have lost money because you should have been in B all along.

This was neat.

Before we all get buried in mass graves, please consider posting the futures extra credit.

Bloody Hedgehog
Dec 12, 2003

💥💥🤯💥💥
Gotta nuke something
Suspected case in Vancouver is now confirmed. Said they would send out personal emails to all those who they know were on shift when the infected person came in.

No emails in my Inbox yet, but I do have a serious hankerin' for some tacos. Was that one of the symptoms?

Lacrosse
Jun 16, 2010

>:V


Bloody Hedgehog posted:

No emails in my Inbox yet, but I do have a serious hankerin' for some tacos. Was that one of the symptoms?

Only if those tacos must come from Mexico, and you're not really sure why you suddenly feel compelled to travel there to get one.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Books On Tape posted:

We've got 45 days of food / water / supplies prepared for power outage just in case. Considering upping that to 60 days this week.

If you really expect power to be out for 60 days straight then you may want to do more than just buy supplies, like that's solidly "I should invest in off-grid generation" territory

UnknownTarget posted:

The missus and I are going to be purchasing some canned goods and first aid kits this Friday. Appreciate any suggestions on what meds to stock up on.

Realtalk, any prepping should be based on the assumption that you're catching covid-19 and need to self-isolate at home for a few weeks. You're just picking up essentials, not a year's supply of adult gummy vitamins or whatever

First, get stuff that you use generally. If you take antihistamines and don't have a bunch left, consider getting some of those. Make sure you're not low on stuff.

EVeryone should have a first aid kit anyway, so consider getting one of those. This isn't COVID-19 specific but having one around the house is good. If you don't want to just buy a first aid kit then you could follow the Red Cross guide to making one.
https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/anatomy-of-a-first-aid-kit.html

Then get stuff you'd want for a really bad cold/flu (aside from tamiflu): nyquil, throat drops, fistfuls of ibuprofen, whatever you tend to use for treating those symptoms. Because odds are good that you're just dealing with very poo poo cold/flu symptoms, and you don't want to be unable to sleep all week because you don't have treatment options.

Nurge posted:

We don't see mass graves from yearly flu and this is a little bit more lethal than that. There's always the chance some places have their healthcare systems overwhelmed, but not most regions.

e: I don't mean to seem callous but unless you're crying over the people who die from flu it'd be hypocritical to do so for this. It's on the same level of lethality.

You've said this before, but it seems like literally every source disagrees with that notion and that's why so many health professionals are worried. Seasonal flu has a case fatality rate < 0.01% worldwide, whereas based on the numbers we have so far covid-19 has a case fatality rate between 0.1% to 5.3%. That's more than an order of magnitude worse in the most optimistic case.

QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Feb 24, 2020

Bardeh
Dec 2, 2004

Fun Shoe
I coughed up a gross green loogie and the crackling has stopped, so I probably just have a boring old minor chest infection.

Charliegrs posted:

I can't wait until this virus starts spreading the US because we have no equivalent of an NHS so you know tons of people are going to keep going to work and spreading it and won't see a doctor until it's way too late because of how expensive it is.

It's comforting to know it's there, even if it is under massive strain and would be unable to deal with any sort of major spread of this disease. That's why, if you're gonna get it, better to get it early IMO while there are still beds and medical staff to treat you if you get a severe case.

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe
FYI if the CFR is really 2% - which is possible and cannot be handwaved away based on the current data unless you're a moron - then it's actually pretty bad news.

2% CFR vs 0.2% is a much bigger difference than 1.8% might indicate, because that's just for one person. Speaking for myself as the head of a family of 5, if any one of us died it would be a horrific disaster for me on a personal level. So I have to consider the odds of dodging 5 bullets, not 1.

At seasonal flu 0.2% CFR, there's over a 99% chance we'll all make it. At a COVID CFR of 2%, there's a 9.6% chance of an unthinkable disaster for me personally. I'm not going to roll the dice on that, I'm going to buy some basic supplies and wait to see what kind of quarantine/precautions are necessary.

The CFR is obviously much higher for the elderly, but this reduction in CFR could be partially/totally offset by the incredibly lovely US medical system being swamped by the very high transmission rate.

We just don't have enough hard data to make any definitive statements, but acting like this is no worse than the flu is Real Dumb.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
Just buy poo poo you can eat later when everything is fine

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
Nalley's chili

numberoneposter
Feb 19, 2014

How much do I cum? The answer might surprise you!

Bloody Hedgehog posted:

Suspected case in Vancouver is now confirmed. Said they would send out personal emails to all those who they know were on shift when the infected person came in.

No emails in my Inbox yet, but I do have a serious hankerin' for some tacos. Was that one of the symptoms?
you should go to la taqueria

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E
We should all pretend this is no worse than the flu so we can finally move forward.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

FistEnergy posted:

FYI if the CFR is really 2% - which is possible and cannot be handwaved away based on the current data unless you're a moron - then it's actually pretty bad news.

2% CFR vs 0.2% is a much bigger difference than 1.8% might indicate, because that's just for one person. Speaking for myself as the head of a family of 5, if any one of us died it would be a horrific disaster for me on a personal level. So I have to consider the odds of dodging 5 bullets, not 1.

At seasonal flu 0.2% CFR, there's over a 99% chance we'll all make it. At a COVID CFR of 2%, there's a 9.6% chance of an unthinkable disaster for me personally. I'm not going to roll the dice on that, I'm going to buy some basic supplies and wait to see what kind of quarantine/precautions are necessary.

The CFR is obviously much higher for the elderly, but this reduction in CFR could be partially/totally offset by the incredibly lovely US medical system being swamped by the very high transmission rate.

We just don't have enough hard data to make any definitive statements, but acting like this is no worse than the flu is Real Dumb.

Wuhan is not known for having good healthcare, you shouldn't make any assumptions about how the CFR will change based on assumptions about the relative quality of healthcare infrastructure. And besides, people in Wuhan who wound up needing an ICU were 50% likely to die (heavily skewed toward the old); most people didn't need that level of care so healthcare infrastructure didn't even matter for the most part.

So you should really be using the age-appropriate CFRs instead of the average one, your odds aren't as bad as your math suggests. But you're correct that acting like this is no worse than flu is Real Dumb

just another
Oct 16, 2009

these dead towns that make the maps wrong now

FistEnergy posted:

At seasonal flu 0.2% CFR, there's over a 99% chance we'll all make it. At a COVID CFR of 2%, there's a 9.6% chance of an unthinkable disaster for me personally. I'm not going to roll the dice on that, I'm going to buy some basic supplies and wait to see what kind of quarantine/precautions are necessary.
This is what scares me. My household has two unhealthy adults in their late 60s/early 70s, myself, my wife, a seven month old, and a 2.5 year old. I work in a school and my 2.5 year old goes to daycare. There's been a revolving door of flu and cold since the grandparents arrived in November. We have a local hospital but we live in Northern BC and the infrastructure isn't exactly world class.

A coronavirus outbreak where I live would basically be unavoidable and it could gently caress the family up pretty bad.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Shaocaholica posted:

We should all pretend this is no worse than the flu so we can finally move forward.

people fail to realize that if you look the virus in the eye and make yourself big, it will run away almost every time. remember, the virus is just as scared of you as you are of it!!

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

QuarkJets posted:

Wuhan is not known for having good healthcare, you shouldn't make any assumptions about how the CFR will change based on assumptions about the relative quality of healthcare infrastructure. And besides, people in Wuhan who wound up needing an ICU were 50% likely to die (heavily skewed toward the old); most people didn't need that level of care so healthcare infrastructure didn't even matter for the most part.

So you should really be using the age-appropriate CFRs instead of the average one, your odds aren't as bad as your math suggests. But you're correct that acting like this is no worse than flu is Real Dumb

here's the deal. 10,000 people in serious condition in any locality will completely and comprehensively overwhelm any health system anywhere.

bad boys for life
Jun 6, 2003

by sebmojo

bob dobbs is dead posted:

here's the deal. 10,000 people in serious condition in any locality will completely and comprehensively overwhelm any health system anywhere.

Hospitals have to divert patients as it is during normal business, one near me today is diverting due to beds being full. The issue will be exactly this, where people simply cant get beds or treatment on a vent.

Private healthcare means the system is optimized to avoid over-capacity in the US so that more profit can be generated.

It's going to suck when it starts spreading fast.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray
together with the coronavirus, we CAN put a STOP to climate change

*stock photo of a smiling, ethnically diverse family*

Lacrosse
Jun 16, 2010

>:V


So turns out the test for coronavirus is around $3270.

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/miami-man-doesnt-have-coronavirus-but-could-now-owe-thousands-2020-2

numberoneposter
Feb 19, 2014

How much do I cum? The answer might surprise you!

STOP PLATE TECTONICS!!!!

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


QuarkJets posted:

And besides, people in Wuhan who wound up needing an ICU were 50% likely to die (heavily skewed toward the old); most people didn't need that level of care so healthcare infrastructure didn't even matter for the most part.
People were being turned away from the ICUs, so we don't know how many people needed ICU beds and didn't get them.

WorldsStongestNerd
Apr 28, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

numberoneposter posted:

STOP PLATE TECTONICS!!!!

Calm down guy, I'm already on it.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

RockyB
Mar 8, 2007


Dog Therapy: Shockingly Good

Play posted:

*stock photo of a smiling, ethnically diverse family*

Scavenged together from the remnants of a dozen ethnically diverse families :thejoke:

QuarkJets posted:

EVeryone should have a first aid kit anyway, so consider getting one of those. This isn't COVID-19 specific but having one around the house is good. If you don't want to just buy a first aid kit then you could follow the Red Cross guide to making one.
https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/anatomy-of-a-first-aid-kit.html

Where do you lonely, lovelorn goons keep your first aid kit? For the longest time I had a GM Kraftwagen trauma kit sat in a kitchen cupboard about 30cm off the floor so I could could crawl my way down to it if I somehow managed to break a leg falling partway down the stairs.

E: I did actually manage to step on some broken glass and had to hobble over to it for a bandage at one point. Bending down while bleeding on the floor, not recommended.

RockyB fucked around with this message at 00:40 on Feb 25, 2020

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5