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MomJeans420 posted:Is GM going to be the first company to profitably sell EVs? Apparently the Bolt is currently profitable, and Ford claimed the Mustang Mach E will be profitable day one. Not sure if gm is counting against the fees for fleet noncompliance. Tesla turned a net profit for 2019 so you can probably count them too.
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Mar 5, 2020 21:13
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MomJeans420 posted:I thought that was only on a basis of cost to produce vs sales price, not if you include R&D, but don't quote me on that Considering the lack of R&D Nissan put into the Leaf, I seriously doubt that. (They don't even have active temperature management on their battery  )
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Mar 5, 2020 21:27
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Westy543 posted:Ford claimed the Mustang Mach E will be profitable day one. Jesus, how much are they going to sell them for?! Looking at options here in Sweden myself right now. Seems like "next year" never quite arrives and I still can't quite find anything that doesn't feel like too much of a compromise. I want enough room for the family, a tow hook, decent luggage space, good range, and sufficient performance. Been ogling the Model 3 and have driven one. It's quick and fun, with lots of nifty features, but quality feels a bit eeehhhh compared to my BMW 3-series and there are no service centers nearby. Definitely a strong contender. Kia Niro EV looks interesting. Seems like a "normal car" in many ways, has fairly OK performance for what it is. But not sure I'd be satisfied considering what I drive now and having checked out the Tesla. Polestar 2 is priced about the same as a Model 3 LR AWD. Can get a tow hook on it. Never even seen one in the flesh though. Skoda Enyaq looks interesting on paper; can they deliver the dual motor version with a 500+ km range, tow hook, for say 20% less than a Model 3 (which is the rumor right now) that could be seriously interesting. Very doubtful it'll actually be available within a year though. Maybe I should just burn some diesel for another year but it'd be nice to get into something sooner.
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Mar 5, 2020 21:42
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A lot of companies have announces EVs or announced that they soon will announce EVs. But a lot of the "available" ones have pretty long delivery times. It feels like they just realized that selling EVs might be a good thing and now need to crank out a couple of completely new designed cars as quickly as possible. I've been looking for a decent family car too but nothing really fitted my criteria. I "resigned" to leasing a Seat Mii electric for two years as my commuter car and will keep the petrol family car a bit longer. When the lease for the Seat is over i'll have some experience with the pros and cons of driving an EV and there will be a lot more cars to actually buy instead of just preorder like it is now.
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Mar 5, 2020 21:58
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yall are being goofy there's a big difference between unit profitability and program profitability. the Mach E is gonna be unit profitable (supposedly) on day 1. obviously its not program profitable. no ev has been program profitable yet, i don't think. maybe the leaf as of september nissan had sold 400,000 leaves over two generations. i'm guessing ATP is like, 35k. that's total program revenue of fourteen billion, but even if nissan is making a 10% unit margin on leaves that's 1.4 billion. i bet the program over two generations cost more than that.
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Mar 5, 2020 22:18
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The cost of getting behind on EV experience could be worse if you suddenly find yourself unable to compete.
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Mar 5, 2020 22:51
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Westy543 posted:Tesla turned a net profit for 2019 so you can probably count them too. Maybe for the last half or quarter of 2019, but not for all of 2019 (using GAAP). And they definitely won't be profitable in 2020, even before the corona virus issue. Charles posted:The cost of getting behind on EV experience could be worse if you suddenly find yourself unable to compete. I think in the long term the companies that delayed their EV programs (like Toyota) will be proven right, but we'll see.
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Mar 5, 2020 22:53
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MomJeans420 posted:I think in the long term the companies that delayed their EV programs (like Toyota) will be proven right, but we'll see. I'm curious about your logic here.
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Mar 5, 2020 23:17
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Everyone will do the difficult research and engineering, and when everything is commoditized they'll just stick a drive unit from Bosch into a Camry and sell a gazillion. Of course if I knew of sure I'd be CEO of a car company, but seems plausible. See also: Apple. Wait until everyone makes an mp3 player, fix their mistakes and sell a gazillion. Rinse, repeat with smartphones. mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 23:32 on Mar 5, 2020 |
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Mar 5, 2020 23:30
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Meanwhile, tesla gobbles up the market. Good times 
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Mar 5, 2020 23:40
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Wibla posted:Meanwhile, tesla gobbles up the market. Good times I want my Tesla
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Mar 5, 2020 23:56
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Wibla posted:Meanwhile, tesla gobbles up the market. Good times And has the only decent charging network
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Mar 6, 2020 00:55
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Charles posted:The cost of getting behind on EV experience could be worse if you suddenly find yourself unable to compete. sure but that has precisely gently caress all to do with measurement of profitability
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Mar 6, 2020 01:14
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Nostalgic Cashew posted:I'm curious about your logic here. It remains to be seen if major investment in EVs is a good thing, since the EV market is mostly driven by subsidies or government (dis)incentives and makers are selling the cars at a loss to avoid penalties. Toyota already has low fleet CO2 emissions because of all their hybrids, so they've been able to wait it out and not invest billions on cars that aren't profitable. They're just now entering into a partnership with LG to make EV batteries, and I think in time that will prove to be the correct choice. CO2 targets may also get rolled back if something like another global recession occurs, which would also mean potentially wasted money on R&D. Wibla posted:Meanwhile, tesla gobbles up the market. Good times While losing hundreds of millions of dollars every year. Fine for a "tech" stock (lol) that requires continuous capital infusions to avoid bankruptcy, not so good for an established auto manufacturer. Selling $1 for $0.80 isn't really a great business model. Also, keep in mind Tesla's margins are already inflated due to their accounting fraud of classifying warranty repairs as "goodwill," and they have not invested enough in service centers to support all the cars they sold. The large number of Tesla vehicles sold are now liabilities, not assets.
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Mar 6, 2020 01:24
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MomJeans420 posted:
Uhhh yeah. Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure. FFS Can we drop this TSLAQ style bullshit..... quote:their accounting fraud Like that? It makes your credibilty worth less than Elon Musk.
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Mar 6, 2020 02:13
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MomJeans420 posted:I think in the long term the companies that delayed their EV programs (like Toyota) will be proven right, but we'll see. This may prove to be true, but in the meantime they've dumped billions into hydrogen fuel cell technology for vehicles which is quickly being made to look redundant. Their strategy won't look so great if they have to write down all that hydrogen investment.
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Mar 6, 2020 02:37
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Uhhh yeah. Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure. LMAO I know your mouth is always on Musk's dick, but have you tried reading a 10-K? Tesla themselves reported a $775MM loss in 2019. The warranty fraud is well known too, do you do any research on Tesla other than just go by your gut feeling? Beffer posted:This may prove to be true, but in the meantime they've dumped billions into hydrogen fuel cell technology for vehicles which is quickly being made to look redundant. Their strategy won't look so great if they have to write down all that hydrogen investment. Yeah I know some people are optimistic on hydrogen, but I'm not saying I think that was a good bet. Not one I would have made personally, though I don't know a lot about it. MomJeans420 fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Mar 6, 2020 |
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Mar 6, 2020 03:01
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No but you see Tesla has super secret technology and.... TBF, I think Tesla's going to have some market share for the predictable future, but pretty much all new battery tech is part owned by LG or Samsung, and IGBTs and induction/PM motors aren't exactly revolutionary technology. And as much as I hate the Cult of Musk, Tesla has really proven that EVs are practical, and even desirable in a way no other car maker had, and we kinda owe them for that.
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Mar 6, 2020 04:39
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I know I'm weird but I buy cars to drive, not argue about the financial statements of the company. Speaking of which, I needed a new car and decided it was going to be an EV. Every lovely dealer tried to push me toward crap I didn't want and it was months long waits for their overpriced compliance cars. Meanwhile Tesla had me in a test drive next day, no pressure or pitch just have the car for an hour. Great ride and tech, car looks good and the range is more than enough for us. They are really far ahead on the software side of things. Customized and ordered it on the website, taking delivery in few weeks. I hate buying cars and the experience was fantastic.
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Mar 6, 2020 05:09
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This thread is only about the future of electric vehicles, no one here is stupid enough to own or drive this unproven technology.
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Mar 6, 2020 05:29
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Very cultural though, buying cars that is. Here I just called a bunch of dealers, told them what I wanted and had them send an offer. After accepting I signed the paper and waited my months. Paid in cash via bank transfer. Walked into the dealer and he offered me to show me around the car before pulling it outside and off I went. Got more for my trade in than I paid for it. Couldn't have been simpler. At no time did they even try to upsell me anything at all. Also realized today that the Model S has aged well. Saw one next to a Model 3, and the 3 just looks like a pouting duck with odd proportions.
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Mar 6, 2020 05:42
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MomJeans420 posted:While losing hundreds of millions of dollars every year. Fine for a "tech" stock (lol) that requires continuous capital infusions to avoid bankruptcy, not so good for an established auto manufacturer. Selling $1 for $0.80 isn't really a great business model. Also, keep in mind Tesla's margins are already inflated due to their accounting fraud of classifying warranty repairs as "goodwill," and they have not invested enough in service centers to support all the cars they sold. The large number of Tesla vehicles sold are now liabilities, not assets. Got a source for that supposed accounting fraud, or how marking a warranty repair as "goodwill" would constitute accounting fraud to begin with? Considering that they're still out money as long as the customer doesn't pay for the repair. PSA: I have a Model S, and I've had to get the shocks in the front replaced due to a known noise issue, that was marked as warranty. Ditto for the steering column that was making a hellish noise on adjustment in/out, also marked as warranty.   "Betalingsmåte" = payment method.
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Mar 6, 2020 07:29
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Wibla posted:Meanwhile, tesla gobbles up the market. Good times I'm sure Creative and Palm shareholders are also celebrating the enormous market share they achieved by being early innovators! 
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Mar 6, 2020 11:58
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mobby_6kl posted:I'm sure Creative and Palm shareholders are also celebrating the enormous market share they achieved by being early innovators! Nice false comparison you've got there
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Mar 6, 2020 12:46
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well the accounting fraud is that Tesla uses non-GAAP accounting for pretty much everything. it's not fraud per se, other companies do it too, but there isn't an advantage to using non-GAAP accounting other than if using GAAP would make you look worse in some way. it also makes it hard to compare your financials to those of other companies.
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Mar 6, 2020 12:51
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Say what you will about Tesla, up until recently they were the only manufacturer producing EV's worth a poo poo. The Taycan and ETron have changed that but it's still a small field as of right now. Plenty of cars are coming that will add to the list in the near future, but they're not on sale yet. Everything else you can buy today is some combination of ugly (Kona), lousy interior (Bolt, Ioniq), slow charging (all of them) or equipped with an air cooled battery (Leaf, Golf) . Some cars manage to hit 3 or 4 of those attributes simultaneously. I guess owners of them can admire their superior panel alignment during frequent and lengthy stops at slow, sparsely available DC charging stations. I'm personally pretty excited for the electric F150, I've always wanted a truck but couldn't rationalize 18mpg for a vehicle that would mostly be used for commuting. Will be seriously considering trading my Model 3 for one when they are released. Hopefully they give it at least 400hp.
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Mar 6, 2020 14:40
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i personally hold the position that Tesla makes pretty much the only EVs worth buying AND that they're a fundamentally shady company
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Mar 6, 2020 15:02
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On a related note about chargers. I have watched a few road trip videos on Youtube of people doing longer trips in EVs other than Tesla's.. I understand that Electrify America and others got some flak for some chargers being unreliable. But after watching some of these videos I am convinced the problem is not always on them. Some of these people are too stupid to operate the charger. It would be telling them exactly what to do, yet they completely ignored it and just kept mashing buttons. I was screaming at my computer screen a few times.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:03
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Decided to try driving 0-10km/h under the limit without being in the way and got 63km of EV range out of my WLTP 54km range estimate. Pretty nice. Ended up at 0,5L/100km as I had to do some hard acceleration. When the car does 90% of the driving it's hard to care about +- a few km/h. This is at 6 degrees C as well.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:21
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:well the accounting fraud is that Tesla uses non-GAAP accounting for pretty much everything. it's not fraud per se, other companies do it too, but there isn't an advantage to using non-GAAP accounting other than if using GAAP would make you look worse in some way. it also makes it hard to compare your financials to those of other companies.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:29
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ilkhan posted:They report in GAAP and non-GAAP both. The difference is mainly how leases are reported, afaik. oh when did they start that?
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Mar 6, 2020 15:30
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stevewm posted:On a related note about chargers. I have watched a few road trip videos on Youtube of people doing longer trips in EVs other than Tesla's.. I understand that Electrify America and others got some flak for some chargers being unreliable. But after watching some of these videos I am convinced the problem is not always on them. Some of these people are too stupid to operate the charger. It would be telling them exactly what to do, yet they completely ignored it and just kept mashing buttons. I was screaming at my computer screen a few times. I'm pretty EV savvy, but have also done stupid things like not switching off a Soul before trying to fast charge. Different procedures between cars and chargers causes some problems. But if you buy one, and travel mostly on a certain route, you learn it on the first trip.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:31
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Wibla posted:Nice false comparison you've got there True, those two weren't living off VC cash... j/k, as I said I don't know for sure what's going to happen but I think it's far from certain that an early lead will translate into long term sustainable success once someone who can actually build cars jumps in.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:43
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:i personally hold the position that Tesla makes pretty much the only EVs worth buying AND that they're a fundamentally shady company I want Tesla to succeed. My concern is that they won't, and then who'll be fixing it, and, more importantly, providing the back-end and updates for your constantly-connected car? How many features on a Tesal stop working if you have no internet? (Seriously - I don't know. Maybe it's not really a problem.)
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Mar 6, 2020 20:22
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Darchangel posted:I want Tesla to succeed. My concern is that they won't, and then who'll be fixing it, and, more importantly, providing the back-end and updates for your constantly-connected car? How many features on a Tesal stop working if you have no internet? (Seriously - I don't know. Maybe it's not really a problem.) If Tesla goes belly-up, they'll be purchased by someone else so don't expect support to disappear overnight.
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Mar 6, 2020 20:31
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MomJeans420 posted:Yeah I know some people are optimistic on hydrogen, but I'm not saying I think that was a good bet. Not one I would have made personally, though I don't know a lot about it. Darchangel posted:How many features on a Tesal stop working if you have no internet? (Seriously - I don't know. Maybe it's not really a problem.) FilthyImp fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Mar 6, 2020 |
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Mar 6, 2020 20:43
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I think the car uses Cingular / ATT for signal so it should be good on that front, maps is google based too I think? E: tesla that is.
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Mar 6, 2020 22:16
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Nfcknblvbl posted:If Tesla goes belly-up, they'll be purchased by someone else so don't expect support to disappear overnight. One hopes. That is realistically the most likely outcome.
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Mar 6, 2020 22:36
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Darchangel posted:One hopes. That is realistically the most likely outcome. They have far too many objectively valuable assets (factories, charging network, customer base) to just be left to rot if they went belly-up. Someone will buy them.
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Mar 6, 2020 22:38
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MomJeans420 posted:It remains to be seen if major investment in EVs is a good thing, since the EV market is mostly driven by subsidies or government (dis)incentives and makers are selling the cars at a loss to avoid penalties. Toyota already has low fleet CO2 emissions because of all their hybrids, so they've been able to wait it out and not invest billions on cars that aren't profitable. They're just now entering into a partnership with LG to make EV batteries, and I think in time that will prove to be the correct choice. CO2 targets may also get rolled back if something like another global recession occurs, which would also mean potentially wasted money on R&D. I'm no expert, but it seems like Toyota's fleet emissions are at best in the middle of the pack? https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-trends-report
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Mar 6, 2020 22:47
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