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Platystemon posted:https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1235865328074153986 Not as bad as this one which inevitably gets shared by the same people: 
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Mar 8, 2020 12:57
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Graphs can and should be used for schematic representation. Not aware of anything wrong with the epidemiology displayed by that in a schematic way and it's not the sort of concept you can graph last outbreaks with hard numbers and see the idea so I can excuse the lack of numbers on the axis. As a pessimist I suspect it might be wishful thinking to show the ideal outbreak curve underneath the capacity line (and the original CDC version shows the ideal curve still peaking above it) but I understand the communication intent in conspicuously being optimistic.
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Mar 8, 2020 12:58
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zedprime posted:Graphs can and should be used for schematic representation. Not aware of anything wrong with the epidemiology displayed by that in a schematic way and it's not the sort of concept you can graph last outbreaks with hard numbers and see the idea so I can excuse the lack of numbers on the axis. The point of the blue and red graph is obviously to respond to people talking about "hey let's just all get Corona virus and be done with it" like how some people did chickenpox parties before the vaccine.
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Mar 8, 2020 15:30
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Blue Footed Booby posted:like how some people did chickenpox parties before the vaccine.
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Mar 8, 2020 15:39
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Platystemon posted:https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1235865328074153986 the worst thing about this graph is the roughly equal areas of the two scenarios, i.e. total number of cases until the virus is "defeated".
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Mar 8, 2020 16:47
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klafbang posted:Not as bad as this one which inevitably gets shared by the same people: Wait, I thought the mortality rate of COVID-19 for people under 30 was 0%? Or is that just for people without other medical issues?
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Mar 8, 2020 17:21
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jeebus bob posted:the worst thing about this graph is the roughly equal areas of the two scenarios, i.e. total number of cases until the virus is "defeated". That's the point. Spreading out the same number of cases over time means fewer cases happen when the system for handling them are at capacity. This means fewer people need hospitalization at times when there isn't space in the hospitals.
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Mar 8, 2020 17:26
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The thing about COVID19 that really hasn't gotten as much attention as it should is that some significant fraction of the people diagnosed with it need weeks of hospitalization before they recover. If there are a large number of infections at any time, then we don't have hospital beds for all of them, or for people with other conditions.trapped mouse posted:Wait, I thought the mortality rate of COVID-19 for people under 30 was 0%? Or is that just for people without other medical issues? No one under 10 has died so far. I think you're misremembering that statistic.
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Mar 8, 2020 17:34
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Blue Footed Booby posted:The point of the blue and red graph is obviously to respond to people talking about "hey let's just all get Corona virus and be done with it" like how some people did chickenpox parties before the vaccine. Again that's also separate from reducing the area under the curve so to say. Good hygiene can do some of that but in the course of just living life some lapses can be unavoidable. Social distancing is important in an outbreak, but you probably need to go back to work eventually as even remote workers generally have some amount of in person meetings; or just needing to go the grocery store. Something socially transmitted and mutating like a viral respiratory infection is not a great candidate to drive to zero.
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Mar 8, 2020 18:23
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 Time for a classic.
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Mar 8, 2020 19:02
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Richard Herring's annual crusade to painstakingly answer every WHEN'S INTERNATIONAL MEN'S DAY tweet brings joy to my black withered soul he makes a ton of money for domestic violence charities doing it too
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Mar 8, 2020 19:09
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TinTower posted:
Aw google, you've failed me. 
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Mar 8, 2020 20:04
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TinTower posted:
I draw meaning from the fact that the date of International Men's Day is shared with World Toilet Day. On that day, my brothers, we are free to leave the seat up.
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Mar 8, 2020 20:39
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Blue Footed Booby posted:That's the point. Spreading out the same number of cases over time means fewer cases happen when the system for handling them are at capacity. This means fewer people need hospitalization at times when there isn't space in the hospitals. While I am glad that the graph seems to have had an impact and that most countries have in fact enacted sweeping measures, I was (in the spirit of this thread) nitpicking the simplistic picture  You seem to be mistakenly accepting the implication that the total number of possible cases is constant regardless of strategy. My point was that without any preventative measures, the number of cases - both new and concurrent - would be much slower to fall than the red graph shows, and would in all likelihood continue to be higher for a longer time than in the case with measures. Imagine the height of the red area, but extended beyond the end of the blue area - and hopefully declinging over time before reaching some threshold value beyond which society collapses. Because without adequate quarantine as well as travel and assembly restrictions and the (already evident) attrition of medical staff and supplies the virus would spread farther, and repeated exposure might affect those who initially would not have fallen sick, or at the very least turn them into more effective vectors, increasing the reach and duration of the spread.
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Mar 9, 2020 09:29
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jeebus bob posted:While I am glad that the graph seems to have had an impact and that most countries have in fact enacted sweeping measures, I was (in the spirit of this thread) nitpicking the simplistic picture No, I'm not. The graph is saying that even if the total number infected is the same, it's better to spread it out. It's trying to make a very simple point to a specific kind of person, not cram in a complete picture of how epidemics work. It's a deliberate oversimplification made to target people who are in no way equipped, prepared, or willing to wade through the full picture. Blue Footed Booby has a new favorite as of 12:07 on Mar 9, 2020 |
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Mar 9, 2020 12:04
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Blue Footed Booby posted:No, I'm not. Oh good, my apologies for explaining it.
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Mar 9, 2020 12:15
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The numbers in that Covid-19 graph seem to come from the same source as this https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ which explains what the numbers mean a bit more. Still no idea what's up with Italy where almost 5% of infections have resulted in death though.
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Mar 9, 2020 12:17
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Aramoro posted:
Italy is a society of old people and their standard greeting is kissing.
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Mar 9, 2020 12:30
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Aramoro posted:The numbers in that Covid-19 graph seem to come from the same source as this It probably means there are a lot of undiagnosed cases in Italy. The mild or asymptomatic cases aren't getting tested, or weren't getting tested for a while, so they aren't showing up in official statistics, so the official death rate is higher. You can tell this by the way the disease first presented in Italy with like six people showing up at hospital and immediately dying. That's not what the disease has looked like anywhere else, so for those six people to be in such bad shape there were probably a couple hundred other people with mild cold or flu symptoms who didn't notice and so didn't get reported. Incidentally, that's also how it's presenting in Washington State right now, so it's probably spreading unchecked through the US right now.
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Mar 9, 2020 13:34
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Aramoro posted:The numbers in that Covid-19 graph seem to come from the same source as this The numbers are fine; the reason I posted the chart is that the grouping on the x-axes are completely different. The two last categories of the COVID-19 part have no counterparts in the regular flu part. If you read that chart very carefully, it still conveys basically the same message, but by using a poo poo categorisation, you have to convince people bad at math of this. It's basically the opposite of the simplified chart Platystemon posted: that chart simplifies facts to immediately counter an argument against the point it tries to convey. This chart adds complexity that directly supports a counter-argument to the main point.
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Mar 9, 2020 15:21
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vyelkin posted:It probably means there are a lot of undiagnosed cases in Italy. While this is the most probable result, it could also mean that the Italian health care system is overwhelmed. If you look at the Chinese numbers, the death rates in Wuhan were 5.8% while outside of Wuhan it was 0.7%...
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Mar 9, 2020 18:08
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Speaking of bad/misleading coronavirus graphs,
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Mar 9, 2020 19:04
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if you're over 80 you will die of covid before you get it
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Mar 9, 2020 19:15
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Panty Saluter posted:if you're over 80 you will die of covid before you get it The first symptom is death.
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Mar 9, 2020 19:17
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Nenonen posted:The first symptom is death. After that, things get...complicated
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Mar 9, 2020 19:20
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That has to be coming from inside the thread. After my ranting the other day about how pie charts are less than useless somebody obviously put percentile data in a bar graph to make a point.
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Mar 9, 2020 19:44
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zedprime posted:That has to be coming from inside the thread. After my ranting the other day about how pie charts are less than useless somebody obviously put percentile data in a bar graph to make a point. Got ya covered. 
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Mar 9, 2020 19:57
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klafbang posted:Got ya covered. 
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Mar 9, 2020 20:01
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Aramoro posted:The numbers in that Covid-19 graph seem to come from the same source as this You try getting Italians to keep their fingers away from their mouths.
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Mar 9, 2020 21:05
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Captain Hygiene posted:After that, things get...complicated Halitosis may follow.
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Mar 10, 2020 05:23
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https://twitter.com/statmuse/status/1237923526461530112?s=21
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Mar 12, 2020 03:28
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Apparently transmission of Coronavirus also occurs backwards in time, so the Jazz played the Raptors on Monday, who then passed the virus along to the Kings when they played them on Sunday. Truly an insidious disease.
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Mar 12, 2020 03:37
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Not sure why it bothers me so much that the Warriors and Spurs are listed by their team names when everyone else is listed by their location.
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Mar 12, 2020 04:18
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Mr. Belpit posted:Not sure why it bothers me so much that the Warriors and Spurs are listed by their team names when everyone else is listed by their location. I’m guessing it’s because Golden State and San Antonio are long names.
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Mar 12, 2020 14:08
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From the Doomsday Economics thread: You can tell the economy is going badly when people start busting out log charts to try to pretend it's all normal.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:06
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I'm not about to stan for log charts but if you looked at the market and didn't see some level of exuberance that needed deflated you're an optimist. A crash and looming recession from a disease outbreak isn't how I'd want it corrected but thems usually the breaks in capitalism.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:22
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Karia posted:From the Doomsday Economics thread: It's also one of those things where it's like "oh well good news for those of us who invested in 1910, then"
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Mar 12, 2020 23:24
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I mean I'm doing some extremely basic "look at what the NASDAQ and Dow Jones are doing on Google" level analysis, but aren't they not even doing too badly? It's not like we've lost years of value or whatever you want to call it, the indexes have just fallen to where they were 6 months ago. I mean I guess the fear is that it'll keep going, but it seems not so bad yet?
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Mar 12, 2020 23:44
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Karia posted:From the Doomsday Economics thread: Log chart actually makes sense in this case in my opinion. Losing 1000 points means a lot different at total market cap of 5000 points vs 25,000
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Mar 12, 2020 23:51
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PittTheElder posted:I mean I'm doing some extremely basic "look at what the NASDAQ and Dow Jones are doing on Google" level analysis, but aren't they not even doing too badly? It's not like we've lost years of value or whatever you want to call it, the indexes have just fallen to where they were 6 months ago. I mean I guess the fear is that it'll keep going, but it seems not so bad yet? 3 years of gains have been wiped out and it shows no signs of stopping. What you're seeing is intense volatility under the Trump admin (which is why like 15 of 20 largest djia point drops are under his admin along with 11 of 20 largest point gains). Really though I don't think there's much to worry about because the government cares how the markets are doing. Which is why the fed is injecting 1.5T into wall st while congress can't be bothered to even consider sick pay for those that need to quarantine.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:59
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