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TITANKISSER69 posted:Invest in cannabis dispensaries on April 20th
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Mar 9, 2020 17:23
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Morbus posted:I don't really get the tax argument since I'll have to pay those eventually anyway. What's the tax advantage of later vs. now? Paying the taxes when you're retired or otherwise ready to start withdrawing money from your holdings instead of adding to them is more sensible than paying it now and likely making a mistake in how you use the proceeds. Yes, if I had 100k sitting around right now (that was not part of my emergency fund or otherwise earmarked for a new upcoming expense) I would buy today. I don't have any investable money right now, but I get paid at the end of the week and, as always, I will immediately invest all the money that I don't foresee needing for another purpose.
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Mar 9, 2020 17:24
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Doccykins posted:if you can beat this game 10 times in a row go ahead Thanks for this.... this is awesome and is a good reality check
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Mar 9, 2020 17:43
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wyoak posted:what exactly are you waiting for (besides March 19th which is rock solid advice) -Very hard to believe that the impacts of coronavirus have been fully or adequately priced in yet. There is, and has been clear, unwarranted normalcy bias here. It sure as poo poo wasn't being "priced in" from mid-Jan to now, I have doubts that people have truly recognized that things will definitely be an order of magnitude worse in a month. -FOMC meeting Mar 17-18 will assuredly be followed by some intervention, which will be assuredly followed by additional interventions in the next few months. Until then, can we seriously say with a straight face that the losses we've been seeing are, as of today, contained? -Huge amount of uncertainty with the oil price war, with a lot of downside but the best case scenario being "where we were in February". I guess I should mention that I have met all of my near and medium term financial goals, and have "enough" money. I'm not changing my contributions to tax-advantaged retirement accounts and I don't really plan on touching their allocation. But for this chunk of (non tax-advantaged) money in equities, that I'd like to have handy for near and medium-term stuff (e.g. house purchase, general "gently caress you" money), I don't really need more, but I certainly would be worse off if the worst happens and the S&P500 hits 2000--not something I can fully discount. Is this reasoning from fear? Is it unwarranted risk aversion? I don't know, maybe. But If I have a chunk of money that I bought in at 900-1800 and its now at 2800 or even 2600, and that money is enough for all my non-retirement needs (and even a big chunk of my retirement), and I've got healthy IRA and 401ks on top of that which are being left alone...what's the point of being greedy in the face of an uncertain but very real massive downside?
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Mar 9, 2020 17:46
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If you have enough money and aren't worried about having more money then it's fine to hold tons of cash. Especially if you're planning on buying a house.
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Mar 9, 2020 17:48
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There is no such thing as fast money. There is slow money, and then there are dirty lies.
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Mar 9, 2020 17:49
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I ended up setting aside $1000 extra to buy some stuff today, but only after realizing that it's basically an over-buffer on expenses I thought were going to happen with our kitchen remodeling. I figure it's a bad strategy to time the market but if I have an opportunity to exercise it into the post-tax brokerage account for a reasonably long timeframe, it wouldn't hurt. I did stave off the temptation to REALLY gamble on "oh heck there's no way we're gonna need that much more for labor!!!" and play around, but still, it was one of those go-for-it moments. Also throwing in props to Pollyanna for really turning it around; listening to this thread has paid real dividends for me, more so than an actual paid financial advisor.
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Mar 9, 2020 17:55
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Morbus posted:if the worst happens and the S&P500 hits 2000 For all your hesitance, this is the worst thing you can think of?
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Mar 9, 2020 17:59
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January 2016 levels?! Gods help us!
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Mar 9, 2020 18:00
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If you get the triforce in Ocarina of Time the owl will reveal the date of the stock market nadir, 3/26/20 Then he'll teach you the Song of Suffering which you have to play to import all your masks from Majora's Mark (holographic carts only)
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Mar 9, 2020 18:06
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Getting on a flight/bringing coronavirus with me back east. Did I miss anything?
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Mar 9, 2020 18:19
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As someone who only started investing in 2011 this feels like my first true test. Godspeed everyone in the same boat. Also lol at all the people asking "should I time the market" in all kinds of creative ways.
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Mar 9, 2020 18:25
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:January 2016 levels?! Gods help us! This really puts it into perspective.
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Mar 9, 2020 18:32
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Why do people recommend vtsax and vtiax instead of vtwax?
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Mar 9, 2020 18:33
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^^^^^ I wouldn't hold total world for three reasons. First, because I intend to overweight my percentage of U.S. holdings relative to actual cap weights. Second, because I want to be able to preferentially sell one component or the other, rather than being forced to sell everything together. Third, because I don't want to hold emerging markets at all (I hold VEA, total developed international). Residency Evil posted:Getting on a flight/bringing coronavirus with me back east. Did I miss anything? The chance to be the first to bring coronavirus east, someone beat you to it 
Kylaer fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Mar 9, 2020 |
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Mar 9, 2020 18:33
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FateFree posted:Why do people recommend vtsax and vtiax instead of vtwax? So you can set your own US/International ratio instead of the 60/40 in VTWAX
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Mar 9, 2020 18:35
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Morbus posted:-Very hard to believe that the impacts of coronavirus have been fully or adequately priced in yet. There is, and has been clear, unwarranted normalcy bias here. It sure as poo poo wasn't being "priced in" from mid-Jan to now, I have doubts that people have truly recognized that things will definitely be an order of magnitude worse in a month. Maybe I'm missing your point, but what about this is "investing and retirement" focused? If you've got short- or medium-term stuff you're saving/investing for, stay the gently caress out of the market unless you want to lose it all. If you've got long-term stuff, buy now because even if you buy at the peak, time in the market always beats timing the market. The only time this is wrong is when you buy perfectly at the low, and even then it doesn't account for things like dividends. Sure, you're probably right, but who cares? In 20 years, the difference between today and a few months from now will be negligible.
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Mar 9, 2020 18:38
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The only case where this makes any sense is when: - the stock market craters, as in loses like 50% or some poo poo, AND - you somehow manage to act quickly enough to buy at the exact bottom, which you’re competing with a bunch of computers on. And even then, it’s not like you’ll gain that much from it. Good loving luck with that. Don’t bother.
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Mar 9, 2020 18:47
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 The S&P's plunge this morning only brings us back to a price the S&P last saw in feb 2019. A lot of people have been predicting we're long overdue for a correction and sitting in cash since Trump was elected, or before then, or after then. It's a tiny drop compared to the runup we've seen in the last decade:  Being out of the market is more likely to hurt you than help you, for long-term investing horizons. Just be in the market.
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Mar 9, 2020 18:49
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Leperflesh posted:
People are trying to bet on this being a sign that the market will go down and stay down for at least a decade or two. From all that I’ve read, it is impossible to see that coming.
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Mar 9, 2020 18:51
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Also, sanity check: if I move my funds from VFIAX to VTSAX right now, does that count as adjustment/redistribution, or as timing the market/you-did-a-touchy?
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Mar 9, 2020 18:53
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:So you can set your own US/International ratio instead of the 60/40 in VTWAX Coming from the Investing Demystified YouTube videos, why would you want to set your own ratio? Wouldn't you always want to follow the actual world index so you aren't trying to outsmart the market?
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Mar 9, 2020 18:55
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Pollyanna posted:Also, sanity check: if I move my funds from VFIAX to VTSAX right now, does that count as adjustment/redistribution, or as timing the market/you-did-a-touchy? Moving from VFIAX to VTSAX is a reasonable move, since if you had known what you know now at the time you first invested, you'd presumably have bought into VTSAX instead of VFIAX.
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Mar 9, 2020 19:01
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Pollyanna posted:People are trying to bet on this being a sign that the market will go down and stay down for at least a decade or two. From all that I’ve read, it is impossible to see that coming. Correct. And there were a ton of people predicting the day Trump got elected was the start of a permanent down market. Also back in 2007/8, the housing market bubble burst and some banks folded and the american auto industry went bankrupt except Ford and that was also supposed to be the beginning of the permanent down market. People were out of work and suffering for a long time after that, but the actual market bottom was at the beginning of March 2009, and the runup of the S&P the two months following that bottom was huge. Tons of fearful investors missed that runup by trying and failing to time the bottom. Look at this 9-month chart:  If you missed calling the bottom by as little as 10 days, you missed out on 120 points of the S&P500's recovery. And on March 30th, 2009 you might have looked back at the previous 3 days' drop and said "well no I'm glad I'm still out of the market, look at that "dead cat bounce"' and been wildly wrong too. If you pulled all your money out of the S&P500 in late 2008, and then failed to get it back in by May 2009, you still broke even or lost money. If you waited a couple or three months later, you definitely lost money. People in this very thread who held firm through that downturn didn't lose money; yes, they missed an "opportunity" to move into cash and then back into the market, but that opportunity on the scale of a 30-year+ investment horizon wasn't very significant. Here's the thing: there's always something you can point at in the news to justify being out of the market. Always. Crisis in Syria. Collapse in Venezuela. Hottest year on record, again. Latest election cycle news. Bad news dominates the 24-hour news cycle, that's what people pay attention to. What doesn't dominate the news cycle is: global economic growth continues apace for another year, american corporations remain profitable this month, thousands of companies are still hiring employees this quarter, interest rates are low and inflation is low and unemployment is low, again, still; that kind of news. Maybe global civilization is doomed. Maybe we're just in for a 20-year depression. That could certainly happen. There is risk. Investing long-term for retirement is a bet, and we may all lose that bet. But the long-term bet allows us to sidestep our short-term biases and misperceptions and incapacity to acquire and analyze all the possible data and reach accurate conclusions about the short-term, an incapacity that we've firmly established via research and which is plainly evident in the collective failure of active managers to outperform random models. e. I would also like to take this moment to gloat slightly about being 30%+ in bonds. If you are 100% stocks because you're young, that's fine, but it's easier to stomach a downturn like the one we've had the last week when your bond holdings are still firm. 
Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Mar 9, 2020 |
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Mar 9, 2020 19:05
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Yeah but this time it's definitely got to be different. It's gotta be. Just gotta. Yup. Because... It's gotta.
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Mar 9, 2020 19:08
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Now hear me out: but what if I time the market. That's different so it would be okay, right?
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Mar 9, 2020 19:13
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FateFree posted:Coming from the Investing Demystified YouTube videos, why would you want to set your own ratio? Wouldn't you always want to follow the actual world index so you aren't trying to outsmart the market? The world index historically can be outsmarted. 80% of mutual funds underperform the S&P 500. On the other hand, I'd bet the majority outperform the international index. If you're primarily tracking the US market, then adding international isn't about tracking the world index, but about diversification.
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Mar 9, 2020 19:14
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Pollyanna posted:People are trying to bet on this being a sign that the market will go down and stay down for at least a decade or two. The ruh-roh 20s
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Mar 9, 2020 19:23
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acidx posted:The world index historically can be outsmarted. 80% of mutual funds underperform the S&P 500. On the other hand, I'd bet the majority outperform the international index. If you're primarily tracking the US market, then adding international isn't about tracking the world index, but about diversification. I don't get it.. The S&P500 has proportionate shares of the top 500 US companies, doesn't VTWAX have proportionate shares of the worlds biggest companies? How can it be outsmarted? I don't mean outperform I just mean owning exactly the proportionate share of each company.
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Mar 9, 2020 19:43
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because in the last like 50 years US equities have destroyed other market equities. so a random us focused mutual fund will outperform world index nosense
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Mar 9, 2020 20:26
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Motronic posted:Now hear me out: but what if I time the market. That's different so it would be okay, right? Freaking Merrill Lynch took a week to get me the proceeds from my stock sale, now Fidelity will only give me so much instant buying power from the ACH over from my savings account. Gonna have to dollar cost average today and tomorrow, assuming the mutual funds can buy today I don't know how that works.  Morbus posted:Regarding the market timing...put it this way. If someone had 100k sitting around and wanted to invest, would you seriously suggest that they buy today vs. waiting? I had a decent chunk of change land this morning, purely by chance, and bought in today. I will buy again tomorrow or wednesday when the rest of the money clears. So: Yes. I did it, you should too, if this is >=5-10 year horizon / retirement money. If it's money you need in the next year or two the advice remains "no." I held back some cash from the sale because I doubled my 401k % to try and max it out faster since the market took a dump. Oh no timing the market! Also my ESPP is maxed out for this purchase cycle freeing up far too much of my paycheck, last week I got more than $500 net!
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Mar 9, 2020 20:31
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im doin some buying today because my wife and i discussed rearranging some money to meet our strategic goals yesterday so we doin it
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Mar 9, 2020 20:39
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Doccykins posted:if you can beat this game 10 times in a row go ahead Congratulations, you outperformed the market by $31,228 Congratulations, you outperformed the market by $18,476 You underperformed the market by $24,273 You underperformed the market by $22,335 You underperformed the market by $52,158 You underperformed the market by $1,546 Fun game.
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Mar 9, 2020 20:41
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Kylaer posted:Moving from VFIAX to VTSAX is a reasonable move, since if you had known what you know now at the time you first invested, you'd presumably have bought into VTSAX instead of VFIAX. Sounds good. I’m now VTSAX, not VFIAX. v  v
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Mar 9, 2020 20:55
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Pollyanna posted:Sounds good. I’m now VTSAX, not VFIAX. v Can't get enough of those hot, hot sax.
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Mar 9, 2020 20:59
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obi_ant posted:Congratulations, you outperformed the market by $31,228 It's also fun to just randomly hit sell/buy and see if you can outperform the market  Edit: God this makes me depressed... 
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Mar 9, 2020 21:01
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re: International vs Domestic chat... 1. The Vanguard Target Date funds all hold 60/40 (domestic/international). If I’m using their allocations as mine, why should I buy two funds separately, why not just buy the 60/40 fund? 2. The Vanguard Target Date funds also hold a small amount of international bonds, but it seems like a lot of people just forgo the international bonds and just do domestic. Thoughts?
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Mar 9, 2020 21:04
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:January 2016 levels?! Gods help us! Leperflesh posted:Correct. And there were a ton of people predicting the day Trump got elected was the start of a permanent down market. 
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Mar 9, 2020 21:18
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dexter6 posted:re: International vs Domestic chat... This is what I'm trying to get a clear answer on. The expense ratio for VTWAX is cheaper than VTSAX + VTIAX separately. All the answers I'm hearing seem to be because people prefer choosing this ratio themselves. But I believe in the investing demystified strategy that says the markets are well informed, and I am too dumb to know any better, so I should simply buy the vtwax. By the way, this is the video I'm referring to. I've yet to hear any convincing argument as to why this is wrong: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwTHLtuToSY
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Mar 9, 2020 21:23
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| # ? May 23, 2024 06:53 |
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FateFree posted:This is what I'm trying to get a clear answer on. The expense ratio for VTWAX is cheaper than VTSAX + VTIAX separately. All the answers I'm hearing seem to be because people prefer choosing this ratio themselves. But I believe in the investing demystified strategy that says the markets are well informed, and I am too dumb to know any better, so I should simply buy the vtwax. By the way, this is the video I'm referring to. I've yet to hear any convincing argument as to why this is wrong: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwTHLtuToSY Tax efficiency is one reason you may want to do this, even if you keep the same percentages.
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Mar 9, 2020 21:45
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