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Who is your first pick in the deputy leadership race? This poll is closed. |
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| R. Allin-Khan |
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6 | 1.60% |
| R. Burgon |
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80 | 21.33% |
| D. Butler |
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72 | 19.20% |
| A. Rayner |
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35 | 9.33% |
| I. Murray |
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5 | 1.33% |
| P. Flaps |
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177 | 47.20% |
| Total: | 375 votes | ||
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The scariest thing to me is that their idea to try and ride the wave and shut things down at just the right moment requires actually knowing what the rate of infections is. When you hit the steep part of the curve the differences in just a few days are huge. But they've cancelled testing except for people admitted to hospital. So all they can go by is hospital admissions which lag the date of infection by ~10 days (or deaths which lag even more), plus the time to return tests which is a day or two at the moment. It's not like they know what point we are at now since it sounds like they've been struggling to keep up with testing hospital admissions even at this level of infection. If the hospital admission rate the last few days was 20% higher in the last few days than have shown up in the tested numbers due to under-testing then that means levels among the general public were 20% higher 12 days ago. It's not like they even have any examples from other countries of what the community transmission rate is when you let the virus run rampant with no social distancing policies since every other country with higher numbers of cases has already implemented that (very drastically in the cases of places that are more than two weeks ahead of us). The science advisor pretty much admitted that we're on course to be where Italy is and that allowing it to get to that point without doing anything is part of their plan. I assume their idea that we're four weeks behind Italy is based on the death numbers since the infection numbers put us only something like 13 days behind. The number of deaths is small at the moment so it's difficult to use as a gauge: at the early stages it's going to be hugely affected by which people happened to get infected (avoid early infections in care homes and it will look like you are in a much better place than you are).
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Mar 13, 2020 08:47
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Judging by the fact I now feel like I’ve been run over by a bus, I reckon our elderly mental health site does in fact have covid-19 brewing. Our ‘response’ to the pandemic certainly represents a new and exciting way for the government to cull our patients. I feel so thoroughly sick of all this.
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Mar 13, 2020 08:54
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I'm not even a little bit able to understand the supposed logic of doing it this way. Even assuming perfect knowledge and timing, I don't understand the ostensible benefits of delaying a shutdown. I'm sure the real reason is number go down, but what is the fig leaf they are offering? If it was me and I had a few days I would spend the time drawing down what we could over those days, sorting out legislation and directives to deal with things like people's mortgages and small business payrolls, and helping distribute essential supplies equitably for an impending lockdown, while trying to get information out about what is being done and what a lockdown would entail. That's just me, a random slut, though. I'm sure the highly educated Oxbridge people in the government have much better plans.
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Mar 13, 2020 08:55
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They are presuming that the "people" won't like quarantine or strict measures, and will break them if they last too long. (also, that extending them too long will cause too much economic damage). Ignoring that people do actually take stuff like this seriously, and trust NHS health advice.
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Mar 13, 2020 09:02
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I watched this a few times and I'm still impressed by this punch. https://twitter.com/Deano60471958/status/1238010653924831234
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Mar 13, 2020 09:06
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They're going to deliberately let things get really bad so that lots of poor people die all at once from something they won't get blamed for. Then they're going to lock poo poo down really hard, get the army on the streets, pass some horrifying laws to control people's movement that will never be repealed, and probably pass a law requiring a blood test (which will conveniently test for drugs as well as COVID) to qualify for emergency benefits as well. As things start to get better they'll blame NHS inefficiencies for why we came out so much worse than other countries, and repeal a few more worker protections to 'jump-start' the economy again. There will be sob story articles about the poor landlords who've had almost all of their tenants die and are now burdened with dozens of unlet properties, and Suzanne Moore will write a 'hard truths' article in the Guardian confessing that she feels guilty but gosh, aren't city centres so much nicer now that all the homeless people have passed away?
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Mar 13, 2020 09:09
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Does anyone get really annoyed that if we didn't live under a brutal authoritarian dictatorship we could take control of our lives and make the best decisions for our health? In my office we have already had a manager self isolate because he's sick with the "flu", we have two immuniocompromised people in work who are at really serious risk if they are infected and despite the fact we work in a biomedical industry our company's response is to put up a laminated piece of paper that says "work from home at your managers discretion". The true nightmare timeline, anyone talking about self isolating in my team are immediately told we won't be paid sickleave (which I think is total bullshit they're just discouraging absences in our understaffed department). Like going into this office every day knowing we should be all working from home is so irritating, I loving hate this "business as usual" poo poo. This like the practice run for climate change and it's already a disaster. Going to stock up on wine.
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Mar 13, 2020 09:19
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Shogi posted:Judging by the fact I now feel like I’ve been run over by a bus, I reckon our elderly mental health site does in fact have covid-19 brewing. Our ‘response’ to the pandemic certainly represents a new and exciting way for the government to cull our patients. I feel so thoroughly sick of all this. Sure it's not good old flu? Supposedly the fatigue/ache symptoms are less common with covid-19.
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Mar 13, 2020 09:22
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My commute into Manchester is dead today, more so than usual for a Friday.
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Mar 13, 2020 09:23
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https://twitter.com/Reunewal/status/1238222187422679040
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Mar 13, 2020 09:26
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Can't do it on a wet Wednesday night in Stoke. 
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Mar 13, 2020 09:59
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You'll never get infected alone
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Mar 13, 2020 10:02
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Jippa posted:I watched this a few times and I'm still impressed by this punch. Whats the context
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Mar 13, 2020 10:05
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Ash Crimson posted:Whats the context I looked into the twitter replies, and it seems that some kids stole a car and went for a joyride. They then abandoned the car, and then one went back to get his phone, and subsequently got Falcon punched. The dude that got out of the blue van was police (apparently).
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Mar 13, 2020 10:07
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Boris is trying to pretend everything is fine because the economy completely making GBS threads the bed and mass food shortages etc before he's started properly negotiating brexit undermine his sabre rattling but in particular will make every scared as gently caress of no deal brexit doing the same again. That's literally it
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Mar 13, 2020 10:09
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Ash Crimson posted:Whats the context https://twitter.com/rekabnoraa/status/1238099216100098048?s=19 It's a theory anyway. The slowmo of the punch is incredible tho
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Mar 13, 2020 10:09
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Maugrim posted:Sure it's not good old flu? Supposedly the fatigue/ache symptoms are less common with covid-19. I hope so for the wards' sake, yeah. A nurse got sent home with fever and a cough and it turned out she'd been right near an acute hosp patient with covid-19. I got the flu vaccine this season and in fact am a flu vaccinator myself...but it is a very long way from providing 100% protection. At the moment a pain in my back is linking hands with a weight on my chest - I've only had flu once and I had much more fatigue, a productive cough, night sweats and pain all over. This does feel pretty different. That punch is something. Lad broke that pillar off with his face.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:10
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That punch is one in a million. The wall coming off is the icing on the cake.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:10
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Jippa posted:That punch is one in a million. The wall coming off is the icing on the cake. Trying to imagine eating both that punch and 100lbs of bricks within 500msec, and how little brain function you would retain afterwards. No great loss there though
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Mar 13, 2020 10:16
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That wall must have really loving hurt. I'd sue.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:16
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Jippa posted:That punch is one in a million. The wall coming off is the icing on the cake. It was just a lovely wall. You could have knocked that pillar over by pushing it.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:25
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Jippa posted:That punch is one in a million. The wall coming off is the icing on the cake. Seriously: https://twitter.com/MurrinJohnny/status/1238138241301307392 With the pointing afterwards yer man is basically kenshiro.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:30
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Strong and stable (walls)
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Mar 13, 2020 10:31
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That video reminds me that I have got this biased view of Britain as a society with a high rate of petty crime. I am not sure if this is a true impression of just a false gut instinct based on the media I consume and what I read on the british forums that I am a member of. Not a lot of serious stuff like murder, but I get the impression street fights are common, as well burglariers and car thefts/break-ins and the like. But maybe it's skewed based on anecdotal evidence.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:35
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I did park up this morning to a bunch of people having a screaming match across a car park so I can't necessarily disagree with that 
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Mar 13, 2020 10:36
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I see Deano is up to their old tricks again.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:37
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OwlFancier posted:I actually was wondering what's the private hospital capacity of the UK like? All those bupa clinics would presumably be helpful for respiratory care? Be a real shame if someone expropriated them. I’ll have to try and track down the article I read on it so it’s not just hearsay, but the answer is, “not much”.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:37
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His Divine Shadow posted:That video reminds me that I have got this biased view of Britain as a society with a high rate of petty crime. I am not sure if this is a true impression of just a false gut instinct based on the media I consume and what I read on the british forums that I am a member of. Not a lot of serious stuff like murder, but I get the impression street fights are common, as well burglariers and car thefts/break-ins and the like. But maybe it's skewed based on anecdotal evidence. It's more people being general dickheads to each other. You see relatively few crimes in broad daylight. I live in East London and I don't think I've ever seen an actual full on street fight, even on match days.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:40
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Real Cool Catfish posted:I’ll have to try and track down the article I read on it so it’s not just hearsay, but the answer is, “not much”. You take those beds to maintain elective treatment capacity while allowing larger real hospitals to convert theirs to ICU beds for infected patients. Nurse friend of mine has had their elderly patient ward converted to covid 19 ward. They're expecting it to get worse from today.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:40
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Real Cool Catfish posted:I’ll have to try and track down the article I read on it so it’s not just hearsay, but the answer is, “not much”. Private hospitals in the UK have essentially 0 capacity for anything truly "serious" like ventilating someone with ARDS. They're more like places for some consultants to run a clinic 2 afternoons a week to earn some extra $$$. This is outside London. My own experience is that there aren't that many consultants who do purely private work, most have some NHS commitments and if the NHS goes on full war footing like what's happening in Italy you can be sure all of them are going to be drafted in by way of their NHS contract's emergency clause. Besides do you really want your ventilator managed by someone who's only there Tuesday and Thursday afternoons and alternate Fridays?
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Mar 13, 2020 10:48
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His Divine Shadow posted:That video reminds me that I have got this biased view of Britain as a society with a high rate of petty crime. I am not sure if this is a true impression of just a false gut instinct based on the media I consume and what I read on the british forums that I am a member of. Not a lot of serious stuff like murder, but I get the impression street fights are common, as well burglariers and car thefts/break-ins and the like. But maybe it's skewed based on anecdotal evidence. It happens of course, but probably not at any more or less an alarming rate than anywhere else when taking into account societal and economic influences. Coverage is skewed because whenever it is gang/drug/race/poor place/chav related (or can be spun/lied about to be) the media are all over it and amplifying it like we just found an intelligent signal from space.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:52
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Here's something my socialist group has put out to try and push through union branches and CLPs but it's a list of the sorts of things that we should be thinking and doing in response rather than letting the Grey Death rampage through the streets: https://www.rs21.org.uk/2020/03/13/acting-on-covid-19/
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Mar 13, 2020 10:55
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Chris Cook, the guy who did those interesting Brexit articles on Tortoise, is not flattering about the budget.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:57
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Darth Walrus posted:Chris Cook, the guy who did those interesting Brexit articles on Tortoise, is not flattering about the budget. The per-capita spending graph in that is an elegant representation of the wasted decade we've just endured.
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Mar 13, 2020 11:04
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My fiancee is not an epidemiologist but is a medical doctor with a master's in public health from a very good school. Also possibly a sociopath, her read of the government response is: economic impact of letting this run rampant won't be major, even letting it go crazy will result in companies having half their staff infected and 20% will be asymptomatic so maximum 40% out of the office and most of them will be gone 2 weeks or less. The people dying will be economically unproductive so few actual workers will be casualties. The alternative of mass testing and imposing harsh quarantine measures would likely need to run for months before we could be confident infection rates would remain under control. This would have a noticeable economic impact as spending dropped off and companies dealt with a profitability reduction from people working from home, having greater caring responsibilities, etc. That's not saying she thinks it's a good choice but it seems more likely that's the thinking than the government seeing 0 problems with relying on behavioural economists being able to perfectly time an epidemiological model to implement stronger measures to ensure the greatest control of infection. They're timing it to ensure the smallest possible hit to economic productivity. At least that's her theory and it seems plausible in banality of evil acceptance that tens of thousands will die, let's try to keep the trains running 
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Mar 13, 2020 11:21
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I guess that's a good reason not to ask a doctor about economics.
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Mar 13, 2020 11:27
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Hundreds of thousands will die not tens, almost all of them over 60, however something like 600k people die normally every year in the UK and it's unlikely to double that. I pretty much agree with you in that they decided it is too expensive and disruptive to try and stop so are just leaning into it.
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Mar 13, 2020 11:27
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I asked the head of my department if I could work remotely effective immediately instead of from March 29th as the university has advised since I'm not teaching this semester and he wholeheartedly endorsed the idea, which is encouraging. My wife works for the local county council, and while they've been encouraging people to work from home, they've said that everyone needs to ask their managers first, so she just sent off an email today. Her manager has been relatively reasonable in the past, so with any luck we can both be at home hunkered down beginning tomorrow. I was talking to my friend in Canada and he only just realized that his trip to Oregon next month probably won't be possible and started complaining about how annoying that is. He also lamented that he went to the grocery store to stock up for the first time and a bunch of basics weren't available. Meanwhile my house has been fully stocked with all kinds of supplies for almost two weeks now. I guess me being extremely online and politically aware and my wife being paranoid about health stuff has actually been beneficial for once... MeinPanzer fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Mar 13, 2020 |
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Mar 13, 2020 11:27
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https://twitter.com/Sarklor/status/1236082413522112512
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Mar 13, 2020 11:30
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| # ? May 23, 2024 11:33 |
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My borough now has 3 confirmed cases, up from 1 
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Mar 13, 2020 11:33
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