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Who is your first pick in the deputy leadership race?
This poll is closed.
R. Allin-Khan 6 1.60%
R. Burgon 80 21.33%
D. Butler 72 19.20%
A. Rayner 35 9.33%
I. Murray 5 1.33%
P. Flaps 177 47.20%
Total: 375 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Gonzo McFee
Jun 19, 2010
I swear if I'm ever within ten feet of Boris I'm going to make a heroic attempt to hit him so hard it reveals his comb over to the world.

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goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe
I've had a clear-as-day vision of the next Tory party political broadcast, and it goes "granny died because Labour spent all the money so we had to cut the NHS as well as all civil authorities that might have been of help in this epidemic".

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Gonzo McFee posted:

I swear if I'm ever within ten feet of Boris I'm going to make a heroic attempt to hit him so hard it reveals his comb over to the world.

If rumours are true Carrie Symonds beat you to it over the Christmas break, hence his non-appearance in public.

Drone_Fragger
May 9, 2007


No More Toast posted:

Not sure if it's paranoia talking, but it feels like I might be developing a fever. Also it looks like thermometers have gone the same way as loo rolls, as I can't find any that will arrive quickly online anywhere. I'm already coughing so seems like it'll be full steam ahead on the self-isolation train! Cannot wait to slowly go insane in my tiny flat.

When this first started feeling serious I thought Boris & Co would be able to swing this to their advantage. As each day goes by this seems less and less likely but even if this somehow does tank the Tories I'd rather it also didn't result in thousands of people dying needlessly.

Thousands? Sadly not. Even conservative estimates of a 1.2% death rate put that at 850 thousand, the more reasonable assessment (that china is fudging the figures to avoid a panic in china) put it at 3.4% which is 2.4 million. Basically. We're hosed.

The only upside is this might make people understand that cutting everything to the fuckin' chine just because it's working at this second in perfect conditions leads to an unstable system where the smallest problem results in the entire thing collapsing. Might result in people re-assessing if they really want to pay 2% less tax in order to have their parents and grandparents die of preventable lung complications.

Danger - Octopus!
Apr 20, 2008


Nap Ghost

No More Toast posted:

When this first started feeling serious I thought Boris & Co would be able to swing this to their advantage. As each day goes by this seems less and less likely but even if this somehow does tank the Tories I'd rather it also didn't result in thousands of people dying needlessly.

They're absolutely going to come out of this saying that EU regulations slowed down our response but since we've TAKEN BACK CONTROL it definitely won't happen again in future also no we need to leave all these infringements on civil liberties in place and people will still loving vote for them because they're terrified their house prices will go down.

sebzilla
Mar 17, 2009

Kid's blasting everything in sight with that new-fangled musket.


No More Toast posted:

Not sure if it's paranoia talking, but it feels like I might be developing a fever. Also it looks like thermometers have gone the same way as loo rolls, as I can't find any that will arrive quickly online anywhere. I'm already coughing so seems like it'll be full steam ahead on the self-isolation train! Cannot wait to slowly go insane in my tiny flat.

When this first started feeling serious I thought Boris & Co would be able to swing this to their advantage. As each day goes by this seems less and less likely but even if this somehow does tank the Tories I'd rather it also didn't result in thousands of people dying needlessly.

Buy a vets thermometer.

e: or go to a doctor I guess but something like this will be in stock and arrive quickly

sebzilla fucked around with this message at 23:54 on Mar 14, 2020

Drone_Fragger
May 9, 2007


Danger - Octopus! posted:

They're absolutely going to come out of this saying that EU regulations slowed down our response but since we've TAKEN BACK CONTROL it definitely won't happen again in future also no we need to leave all these infringements on civil liberties in place and people will still loving vote for them because they're terrified their house prices will go down.

Pretty much this, "Houses as an investment" was the greatest golden handcuff the world has ever known. Keep voting tory for life now you're a homeowner or corbynistas will break into your estate agent and take a 0 off the end of all the listings!!!!

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



goddamnedtwisto posted:

If rumours are true Carrie Symonds beat you to it over the Christmas break, hence his non-appearance in public.
and yet not hard enough to get any point across, what was the reason in the rumour anyway i've heard the black eye rumour a few times

Angrymog
Jan 30, 2012

Really Madcats

OwlFancier posted:

I got mine from Scan.co.uk and it's been rock solid, they probably have off the shelf models if you want them but it did take a little while for them to build mine.

I've bought two of my pre-constructed PCs from PC specialist; I like them because you can open them up and add things without voiding the warranty on the machine as a whole.

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Drone_Fragger posted:

Thousands? Sadly not. Even conservative estimates of a 1.2% death rate put that at 850 thousand, the more reasonable assessment (that china is fudging the figures to avoid a panic in china) put it at 3.4% which is 2.4 million. Basically. We're hosed.

The only upside is this might make people understand that cutting everything to the fuckin' chine just because it's working at this second in perfect conditions leads to an unstable system where the smallest problem results in the entire thing collapsing. Might result in people re-assessing if they really want to pay 2% less tax in order to have their parents and grandparents die of preventable lung complications.

About 14% of people who show symptoms need supplemental oxygen, and 6% need emergency ventilation assistance. If the NHS is overburdened than this ~20% of the people who get the disease and show symptoms don't get medical assistance then many, even most, if them will die.

CGI Stardust
Nov 7, 2010


Brexit is but a door,
election time is but a window.

I'll be back

jabby posted:

Journalists are also not helping by repeating essentially government propaganda. Like this:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1238882397124526080

This was shown on Newsnight with the green line representing the government's approach, and the blue line the potential consequences of the approach all other countries are taking. Where does it come from you ask?

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1238882902580092935

Eagle eyed viewers may note that in the original paper the green line actually represents "social distancing in place THROUGHOUT the epidemic" while the blue line is more stringent measures initially that are then lifted.

No line is drawn for the government's actual approach, which is no social distancing measures initially and then when they are introduced they remain for a limited time. Possibly because it's the worst of both the blue and red lines. But no, we are (according to journalists) the green line.

EDIT: Also important to note there are no numbers on the graph, because as the example from the US earlier shows as soon as you start using numbers it might become obvious that you'd have to spread the outbreak over an entire decade to prevent the health service collapsing. And we can't tell people that.
loving hell. didn't spot that.

Ash Crimson
Apr 4, 2010
Gonna start ramping up my efforts to stockpile stuff, food, water, medicine etc, Society is going to change and not for the better

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

sebzilla posted:

Buy a vets thermometer

Every vet I've seen just uses those Braun in-ear thermometers. Point one of these at your forehead and add 1 degree to it if you're feeling panicky - not quite as accurate but good enough for "fever yes/no".

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

Drone_Fragger posted:

Thousands? Sadly not. Even conservative estimates of a 1.2% death rate put that at 850 thousand, the more reasonable assessment (that china is fudging the figures to avoid a panic in china) put it at 3.4% which is 2.4 million. Basically. We're hosed.

The only upside is this might make people understand that cutting everything to the fuckin' chine just because it's working at this second in perfect conditions leads to an unstable system where the smallest problem results in the entire thing collapsing. Might result in people re-assessing if they really want to pay 2% less tax in order to have their parents and grandparents die of preventable lung complications.


Nitrousoxide posted:

About 14% of people who show symptoms need supplemental oxygen, and 6% need emergency ventilation assistance. If the NHS is overburdened than this ~20% of the people who get the disease and show symptoms don't get medical assistance then many, even most, if them will die.

Don't just hammer population numbers and death rates into a calculator, that's misleading. Taking the age determined CFRs from various places and a uniform 60% infection rate death toll is between 400,000 and 800,000. That's appalling but things have to go worse than Italy and China to start getting into the millions.

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



namesake posted:

Don't just hammer population numbers and death rates into a calculator, that's misleading. Taking the age determined CFRs from various places and a uniform 60% infection rate death toll is between 400,000 and 800,000. That's appalling but things have to go worse than Italy and China to start getting into the millions.
the naivety is a CFR is dependent on medical care being possible to everyone - that stops being possible as of next monday for the UK

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:

and yet not hard enough to get any point across, what was the reason in the rumour anyway i've heard the black eye rumour a few times

Version I've heard is that he was dragging his feet over the decree absolute with Marina Wheeler having promised he'd marry Symonds once the divorce was sorted. They'd been seeing each other certainly since the divorce started, and almost certainly before that. I mean it's probably all bollocks but there's sure as hell nothing about his character to disprove it.

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:

the naivety is a CFR is dependent on medical care being possible to everyone - that stops being possible as of next monday for the UK

Er I'm pretty Italy healthcare system is hardly functioning smoothly and that's including their CFRs.

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Italy's CFR is approaching 7% right?

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



namesake posted:

Er I'm pretty Italy healthcare system is hardly functioning smoothly and that's including their CFRs.
it's just hit the limit on ICUs and is due to skyrocket as per this lancet discussion: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext

quote:

Considering that the number of available beds in intensive care units in Italy is close to 5200, and assuming that half of these beds can be used for patients with COVID-19, the system will be at maximum capacity, according to this prediction, by March 14, 2020.

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost

Nitrousoxide posted:

So I just heard the UK is trying to speedrun the coronavirus???

Is this right? You all can't seriously be actively trying to steepen the curve right?

i see you are not acquainted with the infinite brain power of prime minister johnson and actual prime minister dominic cummings

it's interesting though that it's more difficult than usual to apply hanlon's razor to this, since johnson & cummings are both very evil and very, very stupid

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
So, when do you think they will start closing big public places like museums and stuff?

Angepain
Jul 13, 2012

what keeps happening to my clothes

Josef bugman posted:

So, when do you think they will start closing big public places like museums and stuff?

2010

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:

it's just hit the limit on ICUs and is due to skyrocket as per this lancet discussion: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext

Okay that's interesting but it's calculating projected numbers of cases against total beds in Italy. Reports from Lombardy are suggesting the local system is in meltdown and causing highly focused stress on the performance in those areas so that's not necessarily saying they've been coping up to this point and are only now hitting the limit of their abilities.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Josef bugman posted:

So, when do you think they will start closing big public places like museums and stuff?

The peston article suggested mass gatherings would be banned in the next 5-25 days, I would expect sooner than later the way it's going.

Comrade Fakename
Feb 13, 2012


OwlFancier posted:

I got mine from Scan.co.uk and it's been rock solid, they probably have off the shelf models if you want them but it did take a little while for them to build mine.

That looks like a good site, thanks. Anyone got an opinion on this one?

https://www.scan.co.uk/products/scan-gamer-intel-core-i7-8700-coffee-lake-8gb-ddr4-6gb-evga-gtx-1660-ti-240gb-1tb-win-10

Seems like a decently powerful system that won’t break the bank. I’m going to be buying the new consoles when (if?) they come out later this year so they’ll be my big fancy graphics powerhouses for now. I’m not being gouged with this one, am I?

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Jose posted:

So jabby and I don't mean this as an insult maybe it's just the difference between reading posting and living with a doctor but my sister works in a hospital currently in intensive care so how likely is she to get it and me from her because she equally isn't too fussed right now but that might be because she is expecting to get it

One of her co-workers was in Egypt when mers was going around after all

No idea how I might have taken this question as an insult, I'm so confused.

The answer is nobody can put a figure on how likely, but her risk is higher than the population average. She might be clad in the best PPE, but all healthcare staff are going to be working in close proximity to Covid-19 patients soon and ITU staff do very high-risk procedures that generate a lot of aerosolised virus.

She's probably not too fussed because a) the death rate in people under 50 with no comorbidities is extremely low, so she knows she'd almost certainly be fine, and b) for most doctors two weeks off work with a virus is the stuff of dreams. And also c) we're very good at downplaying our own stress responses.

crispix
Mar 28, 2015

Grand-Maman m'a raconté
(Les éditions des amitiés franco-québécoises)

Hello, dear

The bloke's delivery of his first line had me ready to run for the bottom plat-form :laugh:

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

I think I might have broken something cos I've been awake like... 26-ish hours I think and I'm not feeling tired yet :/

No More Toast
May 11, 2013

Atheist! Imperialist!!

sebzilla posted:

Buy a vets thermometer.

e: or go to a doctor I guess but something like this will be in stock and arrive quickly

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Every vet I've seen just uses those Braun in-ear thermometers. Point one of these at your forehead and add 1 degree to it if you're feeling panicky - not quite as accurate but good enough for "fever yes/no".

Thanks for the thermometer advice! I didn't go for either of these but the outside the box thinking made me realise that some first aid kits will come with thermometers, so I ordered one of them.

I'm not particularly worried about my health at the moment as I'm not in a high-risk group and my health is (generally) pretty good. I am definitely ill with something but it's mild, the coughing is manageable and it's probably more likely to be some sort of seasonal affliction. It's the sort of thing I would usually take some lemsip tablets for and muddle through. Part of me thinks that self-isolating is being too cautious, but I'm privileged enough that it won't affect the pay from my job so I'm going to have a quick chat with some friends that work in healthcare and do what's necessary. To be honest if I do have a fever it'll probably make explaining this to work easier and will make me feel less like I'm overreacting but if I don't that's a positive sign so either outcome isn't bad!

Z the IVth
Jan 28, 2009

The trouble with your "expendable machines"
Fun Shoe

Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:

it's just hit the limit on ICUs and is due to skyrocket as per this lancet discussion: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext

They're already reporting 40% mortality in the over-80s and 30% in the 70s likely from rationing of ventilators to the younger population. Those rates aren't likely to change but there will be an uptick in mortality for the over 60s. They're probably going to keep reducing the age cutoff until they cope or the only criteria for a ventilator is age under 40 without co-morbidities.

Fumble
Sep 4, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 16 days!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aox7CeOdmOY

My son linked that to me, I had never heard of him before.

TACD
Oct 27, 2000

OwlFancier posted:

I want to cut the pensions budget, but the pensions budget is what votes for me...

How can I chooooose!?
The Tories have been so indifferent if not actively hostile towards the elderly recently that I wonder if they’ve realised they can’t rely on the senior vote forever and have decided to just go all-in on fake news, vote rigging, and gerrymandering instead.

Gonzo McFee
Jun 19, 2010

Fumble posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aox7CeOdmOY

My son linked that to me, I had never heard of him before.

Sever ties with your son.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Josef bugman posted:

Is that an Opium reference?
Yes, and the more I read about the internal situation of the Chinese court, the more obvious it seems that the whole thing could have been legalized just by leaning on internal factions by a clever operator.

Of course, Britain did not have a clever operator, we had Henry John "I know how the Chinaman thinks, I went to Turkey once" Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston.

The other interesting thing is that neither prohibition nor Britain's enforced high speed legalization changed prices or consumption much, and China's silver deficit was more to do with pissing it away on their terrible military/vanity programs than the convenient to blame foreign drug men. The more things change...

Ash Crimson posted:

Gonna start ramping up my efforts to stockpile stuff, food, water, medicine etc, Society is going to change and not for the better
Yes, it's going to get worse because of a bunch of people stockpiling food, water, and medicine.

Nitrousoxide posted:

About 14% of people who show symptoms need supplemental oxygen, and 6% need emergency ventilation assistance. If the NHS is overburdened than this ~20% of the people who get the disease and show symptoms don't get medical assistance then many, even most, if them will die.
The above said, I'm tempted to gather supplies to cobble together an oxygen generator. I doubt they'll be things other people will be stockpiling though.

:sadclap:

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

Fumble posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aox7CeOdmOY

My son linked that to me, I had never heard of him before.

Pie is a bit poo poo, he's got a real FREE SPEECH FOR BIGOTS, CAN'T SAY ANYTHING THESE DAYS line to his comedy so while he's got some good bits I wouldn't universally recommend him as a 'thing'.

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



namesake posted:

Okay that's interesting but it's calculating projected numbers of cases against total beds in Italy. Reports from Lombardy are suggesting the local system is in meltdown and causing highly focused stress on the performance in those areas so that's not necessarily saying they've been coping up to this point and are only now hitting the limit of their abilities.
agreed entirely: the infection rates are focused on Lombardy. they're already ›200% capacity

i figure it's worth knowing the situation we'll be in by next week and that the lack of top-down social distancing solutions have on murdering hundreds of thousands of people. italy is a catastrophic test-bed and we need to learn from their actions yesterday

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

namesake posted:

Pie is a bit poo poo, he's got a real FREE SPEECH FOR BIGOTS, CAN'T SAY ANYTHING THESE DAYS line to his comedy so while he's got some good bits I wouldn't universally recommend him as a 'thing'.
He's also the 'comedy' arm of the RCP.

Ash Crimson
Apr 4, 2010
It's rational to stockpile when the advice being given is to self-isolate for 7-14 days, how else are you going to make sure you survive?

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:

agreed entirely: the infection rates are focused on Lombardy. they're already ›200% capacity

i figure it's worth knowing the situation we'll be in by next week and that the lack of top-down social distancing solutions have on murdering hundreds of thousands of people. italy is a catastrophic test-bed and we need to learn from their actions yesterday

Except our cases are (for now) more geographically dispersed. The NHS will be hit hard but each part of it will be hit less hard than Lombardy, we'll have more of our capacity able to contribute. Obviously we need to do things to not become Italy but it's not a like for like comparison.

Guavanaut posted:

He's also the 'comedy' arm of the RCP.

That's unhelpfully conspiratorial, having a Spiked! writer doing the scripts is bad enough without invoking the red scare of a defunct radical group.

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The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

So if this outbreak continues for months (and the science is pointing to that.) Then the Brexit negotiations are going to be on hold, right?
Because trying to do all the stuff involved in negotiations isn't possible when people are isolating or stuck in hospitals.

And that 31st of December deadline can't be extended because Boris put in place legislation saying it couldn't be extended, right?
Almost as if that was an act of extreme 'ubris* which never accounted for acts of God and has come back to bite him in the arse.


*= It's Greek for Hubris.
And a million nerds points if you can get that reference.

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