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Anyone who lived through SARS could have assumed the market often discounts way too quickly, same thing happened with SARS both on the markets and even the governments started opening up travel restrictions. I fully expect cases in China to increase again as they open up, whether it will be a dramatic increase or slight amount is unknown. That being said at the same time the sell off was very quick and indiscrimate many software names that have 0 impact on their margins and revenue, possibly even positive increases on both accounts were also so sold off 10-15%, perhaps less than the overall market but still sold hard. The fact is that 3-4 weeks ago VIX was dead at 13, people here were talking about how random gaming streamers are becoming option traders overnight, SPCE/TSLA calls were an atm. I think Corona or no Corona we were due for a sell off but corona + opec trade war just exacerbated the situation.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 17:19 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 06:13 |
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Feels we gotta give back all of Friday's rip and more. The news was even worse this weekend then last weekend's. But maybe the rest of week can see some bounce with all the Gov./Fed. intervention
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 17:26 |
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Hit Man posted:Feels we gotta give back all of Friday's rip and more. The news was even worse this weekend then last weekend's. I hate to be contrarian in this of all threads, but the news we've gotten this weekend has been incremental and predictable. Sending us into another tailspin is going to require something else big and unpredictable.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 17:36 |
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I mean it was predictable that Trump would lie out his rear end, but the market rallied anyway so who the gently caress knows anymore?
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 17:42 |
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saintonan posted:I hate to be contrarian in this of all threads, but the news we've gotten this weekend has been incremental and predictable. Sending us into another tailspin is going to require something else big and unpredictable. Another tailspin, yeah. But it's not a stretch that we might see a quick reversal of the pump from Trump's speech imo
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 17:48 |
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Agronox posted:Nobody knows, but maybe? The S&P is already down 21%. Implied volatility is higher across the board, which makes opening options positions much more expensive. Is there a particular reason you prefer options that will be ITM, are you expecting to exercise them? I don't really have any style yet so I'm trying to see what people are doing and why. UnfurledSails posted:Another tailspin, yeah. But it's not a stretch that we might see a quick reversal of the pump from Trump's speech imo Ulio posted:Anyone who lived through SARS could have assumed the market often discounts way too quickly, same thing happened with SARS both on the markets and even the governments started opening up travel restrictions. I fully expect cases in China to increase again as they open up, whether it will be a dramatic increase or slight amount is unknown. While I think that's way too harsh, what kind of software company wouldn't actually be affected by this? We're b2b and if our customers are hosed, we are hosed too. Airlines, oil & gas, hospitality, retail, all are going to get hammered and won't spend on our poo poo. MS, Amazon makes a lot from cloud that could decline, Google's going to see less ad spending, etc.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 17:57 |
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https://twitter.com/fxhedgers/status/1239234687425368065?s=21 It’s happening. $CZR has like 25 casinos nationwide. The one in Maryland gets mostly Baltimore as they don’t have one closer to DC. Other big locations for them are New Orleans which reopened like a week after Katrina and I don’t think would close Atlantic City. A couple in PA. Indiana close to Chicago. Edit: also what is the time limit to exercise Friday expiring options? I’m thinking about that guy who had the SPY puts. It’s possible that they could exercise an out of the money option on Saturday right? Lote fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Mar 15, 2020 |
# ? Mar 15, 2020 18:07 |
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UnfurledSails posted:Another tailspin, yeah. But it's not a stretch that we might see a quick reversal of the pump from Trump's speech imo Not at all a stretch to see a reversal of the last hour. It's the "all of Friday's rip and more" that gives me pause. We were 4-5% up on Friday before Trump's pump and dump ever started. I don't know where market equilibrium is, but I wouldn't expect it to drop another 10-15% without significant news.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 18:09 |
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Weekend box office hit a 22 year low this weekend. https://deadline.com/2020/03/vin-diesel-bloodshot-i-still-believe-the-hunt-weekend-box-office-coronavirus-1202882333/ Gonna try to snag some DIS puts at open, wish me luck.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 18:11 |
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I mean, for me the main question is what about Friday's conference justified a massive stock buy-in other than for the companies directly mentioned (and even then, how much Target's revenue going to increase just because people can go get tested at their parking lot or whatever)? We live in a bizarre world, and the rational market is anything but, but I really don't see where market forces are going to drive stock prices up in the short term.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 18:14 |
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The trade this week is TLT calls.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 18:22 |
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Sepist posted:This looks good, it certainly hits a lot more correctly than before on the 5 minute chart. I'll have to mess around with the settings to see if it can be cleaned up. Collaborate and you shall receive! code:
- I think buy triggers more often, and signals smaller moves. - I think the buy signals is followed up with the movement starting in the next bar; it seems the sell signals have some latency and a short position will be a loser before it becomes a winner. - It seems like a dip threshold gives less information here; some of the questionable sells are 1.x% difference. Others are pretty big but still don't show a clear sell 3/10 5:55AM signals and you could catch an at most 13 point move before a following sell signal at 7:00 AM that actually gets a real move on. There's no huge peak there either but you'd have to sit through at least 3+ pts movement contrary to the position before it goes profitable. I have a hard time evaluating if this could be traded well since I got no seat time playing this. But what I do understand it seems p. useful in this high vol market.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 18:26 |
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fougera posted:The trade this week is TLT calls. Why do you expect treasury values to reverse and thus yields to go down?
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 18:56 |
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Potentially relevant to CZR: https://twitter.com/CaesarsEnt/status/1239242719106494464
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 19:05 |
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Weekend Wallstreet CFD showing that ES should open another 1k down. Seems pretty close. https://twitter.com/aaljechin/status/1239237763591004160/photo/1
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 19:34 |
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pmchem posted:Why do you expect treasury values to reverse and thus yields to go down? The yield curve is not reflating until the market thinks the Fed is doing enough, and I don't think that will happen until the Fed cuts to zero and starts massive asset purchases. I base that primarily on the fact that overnight spreads barely budged after the latest emergency cut and Fed Repo activity. Meanwhile corporates are drawing down their credit lines in droves, so there is a bank run already going on. I just don't see how given these conditions, the flight to safety stops and the economic outlook improves anytime soon. Means the 10 year goes back to 50 bps and maybe lower. I also think the markets will freak out almost reflexively. Meaning the Fed will cut to zero, and when it doesn't immediately improve conditions, risk assets sell off because people now think the fed is out of ammo.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 19:42 |
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But even during the 2008 financial crisis the 10-year yield was 2x what it is now, so, might it be overbought? I am trying to imagine a scenario where treasury ETF values go higher this week and it's not obvious. Govt action may imply inflation which does not help. Honest question.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 20:02 |
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Its not comparable because the system is in a lot more debt and GDP has been growing at a slower rate.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 20:06 |
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I'm all for taking the coronavirus seriously, but I see some stocks out there that look like absolute bargains given the recent crash in the share prices.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 20:21 |
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fougera posted:Its not comparable because the system is in a lot more debt and GDP has been growing at a slower rate. Would cash (money markets) or gold be a more likely flight to safety than treasuries, though, given the low yields?
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 20:24 |
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The only safe place to be short term is cash or short term treasuries and on a 6-12 month horizon currency devaluation will be the solution so cash will be a loser (in terms of stuff you buy at a store, at least; might still outperform investments for awhile). Gold will be a good choice at some point but not particularly while everyone’s still liquidating. I’m insistent that no one needs to be trading right now but if you do long treasuries/short corporate credit should be safe. Junk and IG have both already started crashing (I sold out my LQD puts after like 6 hours, no position any more but will probably reestablish) but should have a lot further to fall. Gut feeling is the ETF liquidity mismatch problem should imo be more exciting on LQD than JNK when angels start falling but that could be exactly backward. The true opportunity upcoming will be when corporate credit crashes and you can get individual bond issues for dirt cheap. Try to keep your cash free for that, you’ll probably only have a few days.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 20:39 |
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pmchem posted:Would cash (money markets) or gold be a more likely flight to safety than treasuries, though, given the low yields? Have you seen Eurodollar futures? Its been a straight line up. Not saying this is wrong, but TLT at least had a pullback.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 20:56 |
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You know what the markets and hedge funds / investment banks hate? Volatility. Even though yes volatility goes down with market increases if we are constantly whipsawing back and forth companies are going to be losing a poo poo ton of money.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 21:14 |
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fougera posted:Have you seen Eurodollar futures? Its been a straight line up. Not saying this is wrong, but TLT at least had a pullback. No, haven't seen them, I legit am trying to understand treasuries better so I can figure out when and when not to invest in something like VGIT/VGLT/EDV ETFs (or corresponding mutual funds) as part of a larger portfolio. Treasuries are in uncharted territory.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 21:19 |
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Lote posted:You know what the markets and hedge funds / investment banks hate? Volatility. Even though yes volatility goes down with market increases if we are constantly whipsawing back and forth companies are going to be losing a poo poo ton of money. You know what markets, hedge funds and traders profit off the most? Volatility. Whipsaws are wonderful for trades. This is a target rich environment like I've not seen in years
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 21:42 |
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fougera posted:Have you seen Eurodollar futures? Its been a straight line up. Not saying this is wrong, but TLT at least had a pullback. They're going up because nobody can buy regular dollars anymore. e: whoops double post
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 21:44 |
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Thinking about buying some puts on Weyerhaeuser (WY). Housing starts began to decline in February, and I’m betting that will accelerate sharply. Lumber seems to live and die by the housing market.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 21:49 |
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saintonan posted:I hate to be contrarian in this of all threads, but the news we've gotten this weekend has been incremental and predictable. Sending us into another tailspin is going to require something else big and unpredictable. I dunno, feels like a lot to me - this is what I have highlighted so far this weekend, and I've started to skip all the smaller country's reactions which might not have as much impact on our logistics or production. These are all quotes from news sources, sorry the links aren't gonna cut'n'paste. "President Donald Trump announced Saturday that the United States will broaden its European travel ban, adding the United Kingdom and Ireland to its list, and was considering imposing restrictions on travel within the U.S." "The German government is offering loans of unlimited size to all companies that want them in a radical step to keep the country's economy afloat" "Severe congestion at Chinese ports is easing, say officials and industry participants, although a logjam of refrigerated containers has disrupted supplies of fresh and frozen food, and pushed up freight rates outside China." <- the only somewhat positive news I've seen "Morrisons [UK Supermarket Chain] will make immediate payments to smaller businesses...will also re-classify a smaller supplier from those with turnover of £100,000 to those with £1m in business, meaning an extra 1,000 businesses will benefit from the new payment terms." "British Airways is to ground flights 'like never before' and lay off staff in response to the coronavirus." "So few shipping containers are coming from China that two Seattle marine cargo terminals shut their gates Friday, and one stopped all operations" "Iran said Friday the security forces will clear the streets nationwide within 24 hours so all citizens can be checked for coronavirus -- its toughest measure yet" "American Airlines Inc said Saturday it plans to cut 75% of its international flights through May 6 and ground nearly all its widebody fleet...Southwest, one of the few U.S. airlines still flying a full schedule, said it was “seriously considering” cutting flights." "Scandinavian airline SAS AB will temporarily lay off up to 10,000 employees, or 90% of its workforce...The airline will also cancel most of its flights from March 16, according to a statement on Sunday. SAS said it will maintain certain routes in order to enable flights to return from various destinations." "Spain and France have followed Italy in announcing emergency restrictions...In Spain, people are banned from leaving home except for buying essential supplies and medicines, or for work... In France, where 91 people have died, cafes, restaurants, cinemas and most shops are now shut... Australia says that from midnight on Sunday (13:00 GMT) anyone entering the country will be required to self-isolate for 14 days. It follows a similar move by New Zealand...Canada is urging all its citizens abroad to return home while they still can." "Philippine officials on Saturday announced a nighttime curfew in the capital and said people in the densely populated region should leave their homes during the daytime only for work or urgent errands...The measures include suspending domestic travel by land, air and sea to and from the capital region, home to more than 12 million people. Large gatherings like concerts and movies will be prohibited and most government work in executive department offices will be suspended in the metropolis. Suspensions of school classes at all levels were extended by a month." "Apple closing all retail stores outside of Greater China until March 27." And personally, I tried to use the Krogers pickup service for the first time - but just before it was due to be picked up they called and said they are out of "loving everything and as soon as we put anything out its gone". I expect that will just be a few days, but still, I don't think we are used to empty grocery stores.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 21:57 |
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Did stuff like this happen during the Great Recession? https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200315005041/en/ProShares-Announces-ETF-Lineup quote:BETHESDA, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ProShare Advisors and ProShare Capital Management announced today plans to liquidate and close six ProShares Trust ETFs and two ProShares Trust II ETFs, respectively, based on an ongoing review of ProShares product offerings. Specifically, the following ETFs will be liquidated and closed:
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:00 |
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Fed just cut rates to 0 and authorized 700b QE. That says to me that we are so hosed.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:01 |
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Lote posted:Fed just cut rates to 0 and authorized 700b QE.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:03 |
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Last bullet fired Throw the gun
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:03 |
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Stock market is only 20% off all-time highs and, well, let's do every last single thing the fed can do to save the market!
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:05 |
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Lote posted:Fed just cut rates to 0 and authorized 700b QE. Holy poo poo.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:05 |
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Lote posted:Fed just cut rates to 0 and authorized 700b QE. RIP independent central bank
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:08 |
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Rate cut will surely kill the virus Lmao all the answers we have are to give more money to banks
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:09 |
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Number go.....?
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:11 |
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orange sky posted:Rate cut will surely kill the virus It truly is the south park aids episode, just liquefy cash and inject it via IV
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:12 |
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gently caress me, I hope my puts still work out.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:12 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 06:13 |
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This'll look like the hourlong bump last week, then lookout below
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 22:13 |