|
Also, loving FINALLY 
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:35
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 17, 2024 13:35 |
|
|
I'm holding May 205 puts on SPY. I strongly disagree with Greasyhands. We're looking at low 2400 S&P 500 pre-market, and I don't think we stop there. People will lose their minds about a lockdown and sell more. COVID-19, even with a bumbled response, is very unlikely to kill more than a few percent of the population; that is tragic, but it is not itself cause to evaporate most of equities prices. However it's not acting alone: - Oil didn't drop in a vacuum; it was an OPEC/Russia deal to fix prices falling apart. How long can Saudi Arabia operate below their price target / barrel? - Supply chains are still disrupted by China's bout with COVID-19. They're starting to refill the pipeline but that does not occur instantaneously, and they're refilling a pipeline just as the consumption side of the pipe is about to get hit, with a far less controlled response. (Effectiveness aside, China exerts more direct control over their populace than does the U.S.) How stable will that production be when U.S. purchasing slows or halts? How many companies that don't slow production from China can survive unmoved inventory? Walmart and Amazon will be fine. Everyone else? - Panic; we saw exactly how irrationally emotional the market was in Jan and early Feb about optimistic outcomes. Expect just as much overreaction the other way when news stories circulate about how poor Grandma Francine got turned away from the hospital because they literally have no ICU space for her. Italy has not yet arrived at, but is on the cusp of triage medical intervention. The US will get to that cusp, and may surmount it. This will cause widespread panic. - Speaking of which, what other country with a functioning stock market has sell pressure exerted on it by medical bills? Some amount of people will have to liquidate their poo poo to pay for the degenerate medical funding system in the U.S. This feels almost inconsequential to me. But I feel like it's worth mentioning. - Most importantly: TODAY, staring down another circuit breaking session, we are STILL at an average P/E of 20.38 for the S&P 500. We've had the steepest percentage decline in history, the biggest point losses in history, and have shed 28% off ATH AND STILL ARE AT P/E >20. We were jerking off for a bubble burst at loving 18. There's room for this to drop and still be a toasty market. So, I'm still bearish and still in my bearish positions, my portfolio is net negative delta for probably the first time since I've been aware enough to look at the beta-weighting of it. If you're bearish too: now is an important time to understand liquidity. I'm on the high end of options activity after learning and losing a lot. One thing you will not want too learn the expensive way is just how much liquidity is worth. As you go out in time (expirations further from today), and away from at the money, liquidity dries up, there are just fewer people trading those option contracts. This will impact a few things. Your bid/ask spreads will start looking like Jean Claude Van Damme. Your 'displayed value' in most brokers will become further off from where you can exit your position. And you might not even be able to find a buyer to fully close out your position. Understanding this, if you're holding puts you will likely have some that go ITM and then start going deep ITM. The nice part is that the more ITM they go, delta accelerates. A -.90 delta option gains $90 / contract / 1 point drop in the underlying. A -.95 delta option gains $95 / contract / 1 point drop in the underlying. Between the two, the second will get you more money faster! It will be the one further ITM! But it also will be the one harder to liquidate out of. Rolling to follow the market's movements can help you derisk by pulling your capital out of a winning position, but it can also help you preserve liquidity so that you can sell near the bottom. If you plan to hold to expiry and exercise it's irrelevant. But otherwise it's worth considering in evaluating a roll.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:35
|
|
|
gently caress this is depressing. I mean, honestly, how many people are nearing retirement? This is bleak as gently caress for them. Can't even move them into bonds or something you just need to hold that bag.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:35
|
|
|
We are now below Christmas 2018 with no signs of slowing down 
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:36
|
|
|
What are we going to do with ourselves when the markets eventually return to normal in a year? Take up base-jumping? Blind-folded motorcycle racing?jokes posted:gently caress this is depressing. I mean, honestly, how many people are nearing retirement? This is bleak as gently caress for them. Can't even move them into bonds or something you just need to hold that bag. They should have already been re-balancing things. You're supposed to do it on a schedule, not in response to the market. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:36
|
|
|
So pissed I wasn't able to buy more puts during that parade of CEOs on friday... but I'm sure the market will be back to 2700 before this is all over. someone remind me to buy more then.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:36
|
|
|
Buying puts in times like this feels ghoulish Mass hysteria and panic, people dying, others going to lose their jobs and then you're like "bet I could make another 30% easy"
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:37
|
|
|
Lol welp now we're back at 18 P/e haha took too long writing that post
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:37
|
|
|
FreelanceSocialist posted:What are we going to do with ourselves when the markets eventually return to normal in a year? Take up base-jumping? Blind-folded motorcycle racing? Weld spikes to our cars and shoulder pads and look menacingly at each other at stop lights while revving the engine.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:38
|
|
|
orange sky posted:It worked every. single. time. with the China deal, who's to say the first time it won't work? Trade war was a completely different beast. Worst case scenario there was trade getting more expensive, not the world economy making GBS threads its pants and coughing up its lungs. It might work, but I personally doubt it. Looking at Mar 20 SPY puts, it seems some trades went through and holy lol if this holds are some of you going to make a lot of money today
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:38
|
|
|
pixaal posted:Weld spikes to our cars and shoulder pads and look menacingly at each other at stop lights while revving the engine. I should reinstall Carmageddon 2.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:38
|
|
|
jokes posted:gently caress this is depressing. I mean, honestly, how many people are nearing retirement? This is bleak as gently caress for them. Can't even move them into bonds or something you just need to hold that bag. If you're near retirement you should have been doing that years ago just for such an occasion
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:38
|
|
|
My dad retired in January. I don't particularly feel like asking how this is effecting him. At least I'll make money with my puts? Lol at the instant cb though.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:38
|
|
|
Dwight Eisenhower posted:Fantastic insight While May might be a ways out (if you intend to exercise) there are some dark days looming. Liquidity and volume are important factors and are why you should probably still buy certain more popular options/strike price/expiry, just so you can have your sell order quickly filled. This is, of course, unless you intend to execute your options.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:38
|
|
|
Dwight Eisenhower posted:Lol welp now we're back at 18 P/e haha took too long writing that post what's a good web link to get the instantaneous number on that? edit: nvm this just updated https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:40
|
|
|
Moonshine Rhyme posted:My dad retired in January. I don't particularly feel like asking how this is effecting him. At least I'll make money with my puts? Lol at the instant cb though. Talked to my parents over the weekend. They both retired not too long ago. Their response was "Either COVID kills us or we live long enough that our portfolios recover...".
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:40
|
|
|
Is anyone gonna try to take a short position in the few seconds before we hit -13%?
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:40
|
|
|
Some good news is the infection curve of South Korea is had really played out over a month. Peaking in two weeks and dropping. The bad news is our economy doesn't have an off switch. Also our response sucks Hit Man fucked around with this message at 14:43 on Mar 16, 2020 |
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:41
|
|
|
rip trump pump 3/13 15:00 to 3/16 09:30:30
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:41
|
|
|
KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:rip trump pump 3/13 15:00 to 3/16 09:30:30 It lived for about a minute lol. RIP
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:41
|
|
|
If the market shuts down completely at -20 then that'll prevent Trump from pumping it up this afternoon, right? That'd be prettt funny. Most of my automated sell orders kicked in during today's 1Ω second of trading but I've still got $1300 of MMM. Should that just be a long, now?
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:42
|
|
|
jokes posted:While May might be a ways out (if you intend to exercise) there are some dark days looming. FWIW I'm targeting early May as peak ICU residency. People are still in denial about this even being a problem. So long as they're still drawing breath, geographical spread is a certainty. pmchem posted:what's a good web link to get the instantaneous number on that? Yup, I use that source too. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month is good for perspective
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:43
|
|
|
Any bets on who Trump is going to blame for this dump after his pump? He can only say Do Nothing Democrats so many times before it loses all meaning.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:44
|
|
|
regular mike posted:If the market shuts down completely at -20 then that'll prevent Trump from pumping it up this afternoon, right? That'd be prettt funny. Despite me buying puts, I am constantly turning profit from betting against everything into stocks and today is no different. I don't like to sell non-meme stock ever, of course. Memes? Sell them the minute they turn green.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:44
|
|
|
Woop 11 down
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:45
|
|
|
If anything else, this crash is certainly proving gold to not be a safe haven at all.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:45
|
|
|
Dwight Eisenhower posted:And you might not even be able to find a buyer to fully close out your position. I've been starting to get worried about this w/ my now deep ITM puts, since volume is drying up. I need to call Etrade to see how they handle puts at expiration, I've never held all the way. Baddog fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Mar 16, 2020 |
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:45
|
|
|
 my company stock just dropped 36%
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:47
|
|
|
Pollyanna posted:If anything else, this crash is certainly proving gold to not be a safe haven at all. Gold is stable on the scale of centuries not years or decades.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:47
|
|
|
So $CZR and $ERI are merging as part of a stock and cash deal. $ERI was trading at 50-70 and had a market cap of 4-6 billion when they made the deal. The deal basically converts each $CZR share into 0.09 $ERI shares. However $ERI is now down to $14. Would they seriously go though with a deal that turns CZR and ERI into a <2b market cap company from a currently combined 5 billion? It’s possible that with all the debt ERI is insolvent or bankrupt when the deal goes through. Is there any recourse for the shareholders of $ERI right now?
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:47
|
|
|
I have 19 June SPY 210p and TSLA 180p helll yeahhhhh
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:48
|
|
|
Will Trump autograph this drop too?
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:48
|
|
|
pixaal posted:Gold is stable on the scale of centuries not years or decades.  why do people poo poo their pants and panic buy it then
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:48
|
|
|
Pollyanna posted:
They know it's good long term but don't realize how unstable it is short term people are stupid.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:49
|
|
|
pixaal posted:They know it's good long term but don't realize how unstable it is short term people are stupid. It's good long-long-long-long term which also doesn't make sense to me.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:49
|
|
|
Woooof, man
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:49
|
|
|
pixaal posted:Gold is stable on the scale of centuries not years or decades. I have some GLD, which I got with the idea of countering the Fed "Printer go brrr" tactics. This has obviously failed in the short term, and I'm wondering whether seeling it now while I'm still nominally ahead would make sense. And never touch the poop again.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:51
|
|
|
I was short ES 2567.5 last night before I closed it out because of Diablo. I was able to get short again at 9:45:05 at 2442 and grabbed 30 points. So not a complete loss but missing out on 125 points hurts when my portfolio as a whole is dying.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:51
|
|
|
small add to USO opened new BRZU position 
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:54
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 17, 2024 13:35 |
|
|
Freezer posted:I have some GLD, which I got with the idea of countering the Fed "Printer go brrr" tactics. In my opinion, gold is only a really good buy if you don't touch it and maybe your grandkids stumble upon your gold hoard when they're 50.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2020 14:55
|
|