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Baddog posted:I have a condo and cash in another country, and if a revolution was on the horizon I'd be moving a lot more. Thinking about buying land in a third country for my kids. just keep in mind that based on the above statements you're approaching this problem from a position of significantly more resources than most people in this thread can muster i am an american, i speak only english (essentially), and i am likely to live my whole life and die in the USA barring some kind of horrifying vacation accident. there are some things that are risks that are not worth hedging for.
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Mar 17, 2020 02:31
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Chanting "don't time the market" is an effective strategy though
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Mar 17, 2020 02:39
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Is there something like VTWAX with a more major allocation in Chinese equities instead of US equities?
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Mar 17, 2020 02:52
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Baddog posted:Yah, lets try to maintain focus and not get sidetracked on my analogy. The point was that just because everything has been cool your entire life up to this point, it's not a guarantee the market will always go up in a given thirty year period. Especially when we have poo poo like this happening. "poo poo like this happening" is a global virus outbreak that's ramped up to closed borders within a matter of weeks of the full crisis becoming evident. How is owning a condo in another country hedging against "poo poo like this happening"? The reason why people don't bother hedging against long-term crisis at the level you're talking about is because realistically you can't. There are far too many sweeping assumptions you have to make before you can come up with any hypothetically useful plan. You would be better off building a prepper shelter and stockpiling canned goods than anything you currently seem to have in mind. Leperflesh posted:Whooole lot of Jewish-Americans, including at least one of my recent ancestors, made the very smart decision to get out of eastern Europe in the early to mid 1930s. Just to secure the analogy here, this is the equivalent of calling the bottom of the market. If it were actually realistic to predict the future in this way, history would have turned out much differently. timn fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 03:01
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:Is there something like VTWAX with a more major allocation in Chinese equities instead of US equities? The major allocation to US equities in that fund is a side effect of US equities actually being 55% of world market cap. You would have to mix your own ratio to get the overweight you want.
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Mar 17, 2020 03:17
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I don't think emigrating from places with hundreds of years of persecution is "calling the bottom of a market" What changed was that people had somewhere to actually go. If it's a financial analogy it's like investors jumping to vanguard from all the lovely rip-off brokers that were the only option before. But equating investing with social persecution feels gross so probably no analogy should be made at all.
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Mar 17, 2020 03:30
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Dropping the analogy is fine, the point is just that as an example it's made entirely in hindsight. If people could actually both predict and respond to that level of crisis with any reliability, there wouldn't have been a death toll of 6 million+. Edit: lol it's literally survivorship bias timn fucked around with this message at 03:41 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 03:38
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And that’s why target retirement funds rule.
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Mar 17, 2020 03:50
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I peeked this morning. Down six figures across our accounts, but I’m honestly not that worried. I figure if the market doesn’t rebound over the next 30 years, we’ve got bigger issues. This is also a good check of my risk tolerance.
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Mar 17, 2020 12:42
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Kylaer posted:If you're wealthy enough, having an exit strategy to another nation isn't necessarily a terrible idea. It seems like a bad idea if it eats up a significant portion of funds that would otherwise be used in more traditional investment approaches but if you can swing it, why not? Having the choice of staying or going beats not having a choice. If you're wealthy enough, other countries will welcome you with open arms should the US fall to pieces. But assuming the US goes through a revolution and the markets tank so hard and for so long that escaping the US is your only choice, then consider that we're going to take other countries down with us. For the foreseeable future, the global economy is tied pretty tightly to the US economy. If we go, they go. So in this scenario, chances are your destination country will lock down its borders and your property will be seized long before you're able to arrange transport. If you're part of the group wealthy enough to avoid this fate, then you're not hanging around internet comedy forums discussing investment strategies. I mean sure if you're wealthy enough you probably own foreign vacation property anyhow. And I'm not saying don't buy foreign property as something to use or rent out, especially if you have the means to do so without sacrificing your normal retirement vehicles. But to blow your retirement savings on foreign property as a hedge against a US revolution/economic collapse? That's bonkers on a level I can't even put in to words. Leperflesh posted:Whooole lot of Jewish-Americans, including at least one of my recent ancestors, made the very smart decision to get out of eastern Europe in the early to mid 1930s. I strenuously disagree with Baddog's direct or implied call in this thread to engage in active trading as a hedge, but he's not wrong from a historical perspective that there have been times when the smart money was to prepare a soft landing in another country. You're not wrong of course, but you're talking about genocide. That is massively different than, "hey I think in 30 years the US economy will collapse so I'm going to buy a condo overseas instead of putting money in my 401(k) just in case."
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Mar 17, 2020 13:01
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Residency Evil posted:I peeked this morning. Down six figures across our accounts, but I’m honestly not that worried. I figure if the market doesn’t rebound over the next 30 years, we’ve got bigger issues. This is also a good check of my risk tolerance. It isn’t pretty I’m down a solid mid six figures, we are considering it practice for retirement.
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Mar 17, 2020 13:51
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Residency Evil posted:I peeked this morning. Down six figures across our accounts, but I’m honestly not that worried. I figure if the market doesn’t rebound over the next 30 years, we’ve got bigger issues. This is also a good check of my risk tolerance. I was curious as well. The S&P is down basically 30% from the high earlier this year. I am down 19%. Hooray diversification. Overall I am 33, super stable job, and I am not worried. The crash has not made me rethink my strategy. I jokingly made a "DOW 20000!" Hat for a guy I work with. He went completely to cash in his investments last June. I will be really curious to see if/when he gets back in. I am much more worried about small businesses. Having to close for 3-8 weeks, somehow having to maybe pay people (the government giving it to you next April doesn't solve cash flow problems today), and just being open after it all stops. Not sure how that works. My girlfriend is closing her dental office for 3 weeks (who knows if it is extended further). Trying to figure out how to keep her employees ok is her to priority but even then payroll alone is $15k every two weeks, maybe she can go a month or a bit more. Hard to say. She said last night "well, worse case I go bankrupt and start over", but then her employees are in trouble anyways. It is all weird stuff right now.
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Mar 17, 2020 14:06
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spwrozek posted:I was curious as well. The S&P is down basically 30% from the high earlier this year. I am down 19%. Hooray diversification. Overall I am 33, super stable job, and I am not worried. The crash has not made me rethink my strategy. I jokingly made a "DOW 20000!" Hat for a guy I work with. He went completely to cash in his investments last June. I will be really curious to see if/when he gets back in. Yeah, I'm worried about what happens if/when people stop missing paychecks in 1-2 weeks. That's gonna hurt.
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Mar 17, 2020 14:13
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Guys what's a good index fund that deals solely in Kalashnikov futures so I can hedge against the commies taking over?
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Mar 17, 2020 14:45
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:just keep in mind that based on the above statements you're approaching this problem from a position of significantly more resources than most people in this thread can muster Yep. Some of this poo poo gets ridiculous. There's a point at which people are putting a lot of mental energy into a question which would be better answered with, "Live your life, and when the time comes, pick a deep breath, flip a coin, and go with team pirate or team ninja, and if you die to a throwing star or blunderbuss charge, thems the breaks."
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Mar 17, 2020 15:22
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MJP posted:Guys what's a good index fund that deals solely in Kalashnikov futures so I can hedge against the commies taking over? I'm sure Vanguard has an etf for you Kyoon, thanks for baiting me into the "what would you do in a revolution then smart guy" sidetrack.
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Mar 17, 2020 15:41
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Baddog posted:I'm sure Vanguard has an etf for you edit: i took this out because i was being a dick KYOON GRIFFEY JR fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 15:44
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Baddog posted:I'm sure Vanguard has an etf for you You're not getting it. About the only reason that the US would NOT be OK in 30 years is if a revolution DID happen, or the US economy otherwise collapsed. If this happened, you would have WAY more urgent problems than the performance of your index funds. Yes it's possible, but it's not likely. You shouldn't be basing your investment strategies around extreme scenarios.
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Mar 17, 2020 16:26
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DaveSauce posted:You're not getting it. Also, by revolution, you have to be meaning, like a violent/bloody (probably workers') revolution and not like a Bernie Sanders "revolution". If anything, investing in the US would be better if they leaned a bit away from irresponsible corporate fiscal policy that's anti-worker in both effect and intent. I definitely think if there's ever going to be a revolution (and I don't think it'll ever really happen anyways) in the US it'll be a non-populist revolution like the Business Plot which miiiiiight be good for stockholders? Potentially?
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Mar 17, 2020 16:35
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Residency Evil posted:I peeked this morning. Down six figures across our accounts, but I’m honestly not that worried. I figure if the market doesn’t rebound over the next 30 years, we’ve got bigger issues. This is also a good check of my risk tolerance. I watch mine daily because I enjoy a good train wreck. I am so close to double that amount down as of close yesterday. 
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Mar 17, 2020 16:45
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H110Hawk posted:I watch mine daily because I enjoy a good train wreck. I am so close to double that amount down as of close yesterday. drat dude, you down 12 figgies?
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Mar 17, 2020 16:50
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Anyone having trouble logging into Vanguard? I can't even check ETF prices on their website (also VTI won't show up on Google Finance for me anymore).
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Mar 17, 2020 16:55
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Popete posted:Anyone having trouble logging into Vanguard? I can't even check ETF prices on their website (also VTI won't show up on Google Finance for me anymore). Worked for me this morning, but I wouldn’t be surprised if all companies like that were getting hit hard with people doing more transactions and just checking more often.
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Mar 17, 2020 17:30
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Popete posted:Anyone having trouble logging into Vanguard? I can't even check ETF prices on their website (also VTI won't show up on Google Finance for me anymore). I was just able to log in. (ouch)
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Mar 17, 2020 17:39
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Popete posted:Anyone having trouble logging into Vanguard? I can't even check ETF prices on their website (also VTI won't show up on Google Finance for me anymore). I had issues in Chrome today; at the same time, Firefox worked.
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Mar 17, 2020 17:52
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Residency Evil posted:drat dude, you down 12 figgies? You don't know my life. (But to your point, I assumed "six figures" meant "$100k" likely incorrectly.)
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Mar 17, 2020 17:54
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As things continue to get macro economically whacky and the government returns to QE again I can’t help but worry a bit about inflation and the US government being unable to service its debts actually becoming an issue. Aren’t the historically low interest rates of the past 20 years possibly indicative that we’ve inflated a massive bubble and this corona thing is only revealing fundamental underlying macroeconomic weakness? Is it possible these interest rates and massive QE since 2008 end up drastically undermining the dollar? I mean trump is talking about 1 trillion of stimulus. At what point are we just printing money? Maybe this isn’t the thread for this kind of chat. hobbez fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 17:56
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There’s a point at which worrying about your money becomes secondary to worrying about your life. If we end up in a situation where inflation kills all our savings, our 401ks get wiped out, the stock market doesn’t recover for 20 years, etc., then people won’t be rebalancing their portfolios. They’ll be at the barricades.
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Mar 17, 2020 18:06
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We'll all be too busy scavenging the bullets necessary to barter for canned beans.
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Mar 17, 2020 18:09
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hobbez posted:As things continue to get macro economically whacky and the government returns to QE again I can’t help but worry a bit about inflation and the US government being unable to service its debts actually becoming an issue. Aren’t the historically low interest rates of the past 20 years possibly indicative that we’ve inflated a massive bubble and this corona thing is only revealing fundamental underlying macroeconomic weakness? Is it possible these interest rates and massive QE since 2008 end up drastically undermining the dollar? You can talk about it but the thing is that literally nobody has any clue of how any of this stuff works. Soveriegn debt is a giant black box and the inside is an absolute mystery.
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Mar 17, 2020 18:23
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DaveSauce posted:You're not getting it. We had plenty of time to react to this event. Expert consensus for 6+ weeks has been that this was uncontainable and there would be widespread transmission in the US (and the world). We could see that China shutdown everything, and we know how that would impact the global economy. With a bit of foresight, we could also envision what would happen when the US needed to do the same thing. A couple weeks ago I popped in here to caution, and y'all were pig headed as gently caress. And still are.
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Mar 17, 2020 18:56
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Baddog posted:We had plenty of time to react to this event. Expert consensus for 6+ weeks has been that this was uncontainable and there would be widespread transmission in the US (and the world). We could see that China shutdown everything, and we know how that would impact the global economy. With a bit of foresight, we could also envision what would happen when the US needed to do the same thing. Don’t time the market.
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Mar 17, 2020 18:57
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How are folks approaching Rebalancing in these trying times? My historical approach has been, when I have a chunk of money to invest, I do rebalancing at that time. And I'm going to have a chunk coming up again in a few weeks, but I'm several % out of balance because of how stocks have gone down. Should I sell $10K of bonds + my new $$ to get my stocks back up to the right %?
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Mar 17, 2020 18:57
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Pollyanna posted:Don’t time the market.
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Mar 17, 2020 18:58
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Pollyanna posted:Don’t time the market. Seriously. Even if you manage to magically get out at the perfect time, you have to also time getting back in at the perfect time. If you miss getting back in by a day, or even a few hours, your not going to be better off. So if you can predict the future, more power to you, everyone else should not time the market.
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Mar 17, 2020 18:59
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Can we get gang tags that say "Pig Headed As gently caress"?
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Mar 17, 2020 19:02
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Baddog posted:We had plenty of time to react to this event. Expert consensus for 6+ weeks has been that this was uncontainable and there would be widespread transmission in the US (and the world). We could see that China shutdown everything, and we know how that would impact the global economy. With a bit of foresight, we could also envision what would happen when the US needed to do the same thing.
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Mar 17, 2020 19:02
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dexter6 posted:How are folks approaching Rebalancing in these trying times? Stick to your plan. If this is when you rebalance normally, then rebalance. Pollyanna posted:Don’t time the market.
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Mar 17, 2020 19:03
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Pollyanna posted:Don’t time the market.  Recent thread conversion / success story we managed to I am doing the crazy act of holding a small % of my vest until the next trading window. 
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Mar 17, 2020 19:07
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H110Hawk posted:
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Mar 17, 2020 19:08
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