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Cup Runneth Over posted:They're absolutely hosed. The service industry is about to get a hard reboot. It's going to be bad. As of now it is just county orders of "gently caress you, stay home without pay but keep paying the people who aren't actively providing a service to you"
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Mar 17, 2020 18:26
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What do ya'll think are the odds of the "shelter in place" order expanding to the Los Angeles/San Diego areas or whole state?
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Mar 17, 2020 19:52
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Chomp8645 posted:What do ya'll think are the odds of the "shelter in place" order expanding to the Los Angeles/San Diego areas or whole state? 100% lol That shouldn’t even be a question at this point. It’s just a matter of when (less than a week I’d say)
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Mar 17, 2020 19:54
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MarcusSA posted:100% lol Well shucks, if that's the case I'd rather they just do it now.
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Mar 17, 2020 19:55
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Chomp8645 posted:Well shucks, if that's the case I'd rather they just do it now. They should have already... We are well behind the curve on nearly everything.
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Mar 17, 2020 20:02
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Yeah the country is a full month behind reacting appropriately. The SF bay area just caught up by like, one week, with the six county shutdown. That's the level of shutdown we - the entire goddamn united states - should have been doing the day the first case showed up. Politically probably impossible, but if we'd done it then, we could have entire prevented the outbreak because finding individuals with the disease and tracking 100% of their contacts is still possible when there's only a hundred or two people with it in the country (and by the time you get ten positive tests, you've got at least a couple hundred loose in the country). Right now we are not going to get away with fewer than at least hundreds of thousands of cases. That's if everywhere shuts down today. And with that level of caseload, entirely eradicating the disease in this country is basically impossible; whenever we come off of full shutdown, there are going to be resurgences and new cases and a new curve. Our hopes now lay in keeping the curve low enough as to not totally overwhelm the hospitals; and, longer-term, some kind of greatly improved treatments that keep mortality low until we can get a vaccine. In a year or so.
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Mar 17, 2020 20:13
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TLDR; We are hosed.
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Mar 17, 2020 20:14
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I'm crossing my fingers that other communities follow the bay area's lead without needing an order to come down. Anecdotal, but my mom lives in Sacramento and she says it's eerily quiet today.
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Mar 17, 2020 20:14
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My brother lives in Tracy, works union construction (apprentice pipefitter) in the bay area, is now sent home from what was already just a couple-week job. Normally he drives Lyft between jobs, just to float the rent. But his car needs cleaning and oil change and registration and he's not sure it's worth putting $300 or so into it if he'll only be able to drive for a few days before San Joaquin county is shut down... and, most likely there's a glut of drivers right now as workers get sent home and try to find cash to make rent, while total ridership has fallen off a cliff. (Who wants to get into an enclosed car with a stranger that has carried a dozen other strangers today?) ...aand, of course, unemployment looks back exactly 6 months, he was not working exactly 6 months ago, so he can't make a claim. I love my brother but he's never been able to save money or make great financial decisions, so he's basically going to be broke inside of a couple of weeks most likely. He's not alone out there. This is gonna hurt a lot of people. Not everyone can make it on unemployment checks. And I think total shutdowns might have to carry on like this for months.
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Mar 17, 2020 20:20
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My employer has decided on the worst of both worlds and I am working from home every other day. They also sent a company-wide email from HR to remind us that they are VERY GENEROUS and that we SHOULDN'T TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS GENEROSITY... OR ELSE. Seems they're less concerned about us getting sick and more concerned that we'll enjoy working from home and start asking to do it more.
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Mar 17, 2020 20:25
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Rodenthar Drothman posted:Aerospace here - apparently we'd be considered national security "necessary work" or something and be expected to come in (L.A. county, so no shelter in place yet). I work for a company that makes loving hard drives who has been deemed "necessary work" and is exempt from the shelter in place order. What a joke.
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Mar 17, 2020 20:59
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La County update They will not test you unless you are so sick you might be admitted. We are so so hosed.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:05
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3 of my friends are small business owners and all 3 are going to lose their businesses unless the government does something. This is something like 16 people out of work with no healthcare, jesus christ. But let's bail out the loving CASINOS, hey-o!!!!
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Mar 17, 2020 21:11
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If I fully close I'll lose 50,000 a week. I have reserves to pay employees for 4 weeks. Right now my dilemma is pay everyone for 4 weeks then layoffs non critical staff to bring payroll to 10% so I can survive. I had buy a mega generator system months ago due to the fires. many small biz owners are going to be in the same position with no reserve. Layoffs will be bad. I have to basically split my personnel in half. 1 half lives with their parents the other half solo. So I'd layoff the home people first or send them home week 1 and say get unemployment till I can bring you back. Restraunts and many non corporate retail stores run on a day to day cash flow need. As in of your closed for 2 days you can't meet payroll.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:14
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What they need to do is suspend all rents, tell the banks they can't collect interest on the loans. Everything freezes for 3 months while we get into summer and this virus eats poo poo (and it will, it's struggling to transmit in 85+ degree weather). Direct pay everyone 1k a month + suspension of rent means that nobody goes hungry or gets evicted or shuts their business. Announce that we're going to spin everything back up in 3 months and life will go on. Then claw all the money back from the billionaires with a big tax. Anything less and this country is absolutely going to explode this summer.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:17
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e,f;b A general freeze on mortgage and rent payments (mainly residential, but with some provisions to include small businesses making under a certain threshold of revenue) coupled with a ban on evictions would be a strong first step. Banks and landlords are the ones most poised to absorb a temporary disruption in revenue, and it would free up a huge amount of money for people losing their jobs or at a minimum being unable to work and collect a regular paycheck. It would cause the banks to panic obviously, but oh no the horror the Fed will have to pump even more money into them. It would have some pretty nasty long term economic effects but there's no avoiding tanking the economy in the long run regardless at this point, and it would help people sure up their funds RIGHT NOW for necessary supplies.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:20
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Leperflesh posted:My brother lives in Tracy, works union construction (apprentice pipefitter) in the bay area, is now sent home from what was already just a couple-week job. Normally he drives Lyft between jobs, just to float the rent. But his car needs cleaning and oil change and registration and he's not sure it's worth putting $300 or so into it if he'll only be able to drive for a few days before San Joaquin county is shut down... and, most likely there's a glut of drivers right now as workers get sent home and try to find cash to make rent, while total ridership has fallen off a cliff. (Who wants to get into an enclosed car with a stranger that has carried a dozen other strangers today?) ...aand, of course, unemployment looks back exactly 6 months, he was not working exactly 6 months ago, so he can't make a claim. I love my brother but he's never been able to save money or make great financial decisions, so he's basically going to be broke inside of a couple of weeks most likely. Just updating this: my brother actually can re-open his previous unemployment case, and the EDD site even says they're waiving one week of the standard waiting period due to the COVID-19 situation. So, unemployment insurance is not the best, but it's drat well better than nothing at all.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:20
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:What they need to do is suspend all rents, tell the banks they can't collect interest on the loans. Everything freezes for 3 months while we get into summer and this virus eats poo poo (and it will, it's struggling to transmit in 85+ degree weather). Direct pay everyone 1k a month + suspension of rent means that nobody goes hungry or gets evicted or shuts their business. Announce that we're going to spin everything back up in 3 months and life will go on. Then claw all the money back from the billionaires with a big tax. Anything less and this country is absolutely going to explode this summer. This is a good plan, so I fully expect nothing even close to this happening.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:30
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Keep in mind that the finance industry is such a cash-soaked beast at this point that starving it of income for 3 months means the banker shitheads get a 15 million dollar bonus instead of a 20 million dollar bonus. gently caress them.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:31
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We care more about markets than lives in the country so unfortunately I don't think even half of that is going to get done. It's dumb as hell too because even if the $1K cash handout gets passed, it doesn't loving matter if your rent is $2K, you're out of the job, and your choices are lose you apartment or starve.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:33
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:What they need to do is suspend all rents, tell the banks they can't collect interest on the loans. Everything freezes for 3 months while we get into summer and this virus eats poo poo (and it will, it's struggling to transmit in 85+ degree weather). Direct pay everyone 1k a month + suspension of rent means that nobody goes hungry or gets evicted or shuts their business. Announce that we're going to spin everything back up in 3 months and life will go on. Then claw all the money back from the billionaires with a big tax. Anything less and this country is absolutely going to explode this summer. Okay but how about low interest loans to small businesses and entrepreneurs who offer 6 month internships to recent STEM graduates
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Mar 17, 2020 23:07
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Orange County kind of doing like the Bay Area now https://twitter.com/OrangeCountyEOC/status/1240036306022879232 
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Mar 17, 2020 23:47
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The Wiggly Wizard posted:Okay but how about low interest loans to small businesses and entrepreneurs who offer 6 month internships to recent STEM graduates An internship pressing HEAT on the automatic pizza machine
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Mar 18, 2020 00:08
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https://twitter.com/LondonBreed/status/1240057837822201856 God bless this dumbass city
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Mar 18, 2020 00:38
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The Glumslinger posted:https://twitter.com/LondonBreed/status/1240057837822201856 Lol
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Mar 18, 2020 00:44
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breed gave a family member a day 1 permit for the only dispensary in the upper haight. there's a lot of money in weed, and it has her private number.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:48
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https://twitter.com/mlevinreports/status/1240062054624407552 So are we just gonna dump them all back on the street once Coronavirus is gone? Because that isn't gonna go over well
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Mar 18, 2020 00:49
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The Glumslinger posted:https://twitter.com/LondonBreed/status/1240057837822201856 Well I no longer have to layoff half my staff so I'm stoked
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Mar 18, 2020 01:01
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The Wiggly Wizard posted:Okay but how about low interest loans to small businesses and entrepreneurs who offer 6 month internships to recent STEM graduates by the way how's this for a shot call? https://twitter.com/SenSchumer/status/1240022116797382656
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Mar 18, 2020 01:36
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Chuck Schumer is reading this thread!
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Mar 18, 2020 01:46
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"In this time of crisis we propose to pull out all the stops to help the poor and financially strained, by allowing them to incur even more debt!" - The "left-wing" American political party.
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Mar 18, 2020 01:53
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CopperHound posted:I hope we can offload as much of this bad as possible onto rent seekers. yeah. we should really be pushing for a rent strike if this isn't addressed
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Mar 18, 2020 05:19
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like, we could just all stop paying rent at any time. what are they going to do, evict millions of people? and yeah landlords will take a hit but it's ok: they can also stop paying the mortgages and property taxes on their rentals
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Mar 18, 2020 05:21
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chuck schumer defenestrate urself
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Mar 18, 2020 05:41
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OMGVBFLOL posted:like, we could just all stop paying rent at any time. what are they going to do, evict millions of people? I thought Newsom issued an order halting evictions until the end of May? My county has even shut down their unlawful detainer court to the public and is not doing any evictions. Yeah, renters will eventually have to pay back their landlords, which is going suck hard to catch up on, but at least no one is being thrown out onto the streets during the middle of a pandemic.
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Mar 18, 2020 06:15
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tmm3k posted:I thought Newsom issued an order halting evictions until the end of May? My county has even shut down their unlawful detainer court to the public and is not doing any evictions. No, he gave local governments permission to halt evictions through May.
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Mar 18, 2020 06:21
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Boredumb posted:Orange County kind of doing like the Bay Area now OC Health just reversed this order and said everyone read it the wrong way  https://twitter.com/orangecountyeoc/status/1240102073305194496?s=21
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Mar 18, 2020 06:22
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Wicked Them Beats posted:No, he gave local governments permission to halt evictions through May. Oh, I may have misunderstood. Well that's dumb, then. Glad my county is halting evictions, but it should be statewide.
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Mar 18, 2020 06:40
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lmao if we dont get socialism out of all this we deserve to die
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Mar 18, 2020 07:55
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The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team in the UK plugged the US and UK into a computer epidemiology model to predict what the course of COVID19 would be if we just treated it like the flu and did nothing. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf 4 million dead. 80 percent of the country would get the virus, and about 1 percent would die. Something like 15 percent of Americans over 70 will die. In about 3-4 months. With voluntary social distancing the death toll goes down to about 2 million, though. The only thing that really slows it down is quarantine procedures of the kind we're slowly adopting nationwide, which if they're implemented quickly enough mean we'll top out at a couple thousand dead in a couple months and then new cases will start to decline. Unfortunately, at that point it'll be endemic to the population. Which means if the quarantine is let up for too long, the death toll starts climbing again and we're back on the same exponential path to apocalypse. We basically have to be in lockdown mode until a vaccine is developed and we can get to herd immunity that way rather than just allowing a huge chunk of the population to die. Vaccine development will take 12-18 months if we RUSH, and if there's no further mutation of the virus to complicate things. We're kind of already behind the ball here because Trump initially rejected offers from abroad to collaborate on a vaccine in an effort to give the vaccine contract to a private company partially owned by Jared Kushner. Say whatever else you can say of him, the man is always on his grift. So yeah. If you think this is ending anytime soon, you're kidding yourself. What they're doing now is trying to hit a sweet spot where they shut things down fast enough to avoid the exponential part of the curve without spooking the markets so much that we go into The Great Depression 2. It's a very delicate dance, especially since we were already heading for a major recession in the next 6-12 months or so anyway, and they'd already been struggling increasingly vainly to keep it from happening before coronavirus accelerated the timetable. My assumption is that the new normal for at least the next year is going to be rolling quarantines where some cities go into lockdown for a period of time while others come out of it and it looks like we're sort of playing whack-a-mole with the virus. The economy can't withstand the true quarantine that we actually need so this is the needle we have to try to thread. And it goes without saying we're going to have a major recession anyway that everyone will try to downplay and pretend isn't happening, because panic will make it worse. If you have any sort of service sector job or anything that relies on international travel or supply chain logistics, you should assume you won't have it anymore this time next month and plan accordingly.
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Mar 18, 2020 08:26
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