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Today in "pants making GBS threads trading moments" for 5 seconds I thought I had accidentally clicked "Sell to Open" instead of "Buy to Open" on a put.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:45
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Today in "pants making GBS threads trading moments" for 5 seconds I thought I had accidentally clicked "Sell to Open" instead of "Buy to Open" on a put. Does your broker not highlight the net transaction in red if it costs you money and green if you will be getting money? I've still mentally gone oh poo poo even with that but it's a real nice safety.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:48
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Hit Man posted:20% unemployment is pretty horrifying. We hit 24.9% during The Great Depression. That number is a beyond worst case scenario designed to pressure politicians to do things. It's not a reasonable expectation in anything but an apocalyptic scenario.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:48
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greasyhands posted:I agree the big hotel operators have not been hit that hard, and could fall significantly further and as they get cheaper they just become better buys. Just like JD was a good buy at $30 and became a phenomenal buy at $19 (i was beating the drum as hard as i could at $19). I like some of the hotel REITs as they are getting cheaper and cheaper even as rates get lower and lower, which is a good thing for them. CPLG and CLDT are two good ones. I like MAR very soon, i think the other guys $60 target is a good start. This x1000. This is the time to be greedy per Buffett. I've been writing call and put spreads to set up iron condors with cautious but not exactly safe strikes. If you make it to expiration OTM then you got cash to buy stuff with. If you don't, but you wrote at good prices, you can lose 1/3 and still make money. Just remember to set an ambitious limit order and let the market come to you.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:48
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O is an incredibly well run company that is extremely hard to get at a discount, but here it is. Buffett is in STOR at $20 from like 3 years ago... its cheaper than that now
greasyhands fucked around with this message at 14:52 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 14:49
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PENN puts I bought already looking great this morning. Thanks Lote!
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Mar 18, 2020 14:51
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Starting a position in SYY today, gonna go 100 shares at a time till it bottoms out. They’re like, all the restaurants.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:54
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Can someone explain to my why people sell puts that have already met their strike? Like I was looking at Zillow which was sitting at 24 and there are puts for 25? Does that mean you just automatically make a profit for buying and selling it? Is this people who had old puts offers and forgot to remove it? I feel like there is something I fundamentally don't understand.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:55
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fougera posted:You are missing the point. Dodd Frank is currently prohibiting banks from lending and trading where lending and trading needs to happen. you're missing the point which was that this particular situation was not reasonably foreseeable at the time
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Mar 18, 2020 14:55
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pixaal posted:Does your broker not highlight the net transaction in red if it costs you money and green if you will be getting money? I've still mentally gone oh poo poo even with that but it's a real nice safety. I don't know, I think maybe yes, I'll check it out on my next trade, thanks for the tip.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:56
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Oh, i guess I own some MAR now. Incredible
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Mar 18, 2020 14:56
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Megasabin posted:Can someone explain to my why people sell puts that have already met their strike? Like I was looking at Zillow which was sitting at 24 and there are puts for 25? Does that mean you just automatically make a profit for buying and selling it? Is this people who had old puts offers and forgot to remove it? I feel like there is something I fundamentally don't understand. 1) You don't know if the strike will hold by the time you want to exercise the option so there's risk involved. 2) Some people will actually exercise the put at some point to get the underlying shares.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:58
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:you're missing the point which was that this particular situation was not reasonably foreseeable at the time which makes it all the more ironic, which was my original point. More constructive, I think the market is giving you a chance to raise cash here.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:58
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:This x1000. This is the time to be greedy per Buffett. I think we're getting there. But like you said earlier--on an absolute basis the market as a whole still isn't "cheap." And the E part of the P/E ratio is going to get whacked, HARD, in a lot of industries. I do agree that it's worth trying to figure out what you want to pick up, and roughly when you think you should. I was supposed to go to a big March Madness multi-day house party over the weekend... since that ain't happening, it will be time to read some 10-Ks. My first guess is to look at stuff like tobacco, office or resi REITs, financials, battered down tech names, and maybe some energy bonds. Actually I've already taken a nibble at some bank preferred shares. Still net short but I should probably start trimming back more.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:59
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How do you jobless claims will look tomorrow at 8:30am? Tomorrow's release will be for last week, and I don't think the layoffs really started happening in mass (in the restaurant industry especially) until this week.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:01
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Megasabin posted:Can someone explain to my why people sell puts that have already met their strike? Like I was looking at Zillow which was sitting at 24 and there are puts for 25? Does that mean you just automatically make a profit for buying and selling it? Is this people who had old puts offers and forgot to remove it? I feel like there is something I fundamentally don't understand. You are correct in that you are fundamentally misunderstanding something. If you buy a $25 put on an equity priced at $24, it will cost you $1.00 + some premium. Someone who sells a put at $25 is agreeing to buy shares at $25 so the $1 premium they are pocketing is immediately lost to the market price being $1 lower than their buy price. When a put reaches its strike price there is no requirement to execute it, you can just play it like a levered position. However a put seller always has what is called ‘assignment risk’, which i would recommend googling.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:02
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Today in "pants making GBS threads trading moments" for 5 seconds I thought I had accidentally clicked "Sell to Open" instead of "Buy to Open" on a put. Did it this morning as well and it lasts a few minutes of clicking tabs back and forth making sure the order filled because the position didn't disappear immediately when I sold my puts at open.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:03
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OIL noooooo 
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Mar 18, 2020 15:04
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China is reporting that a Japanese flu treatment, faviparivir ("Avigan") shows effectiveness at treating Coronavirus (better lung outcomes, 4 days versus 11 to test negative).
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Mar 18, 2020 15:06
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Watching CNBC right now. Guy said Goldman predicts the S&P to be lowest at 2000, then back up to 3200 at the end of the year. Lmao
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Mar 18, 2020 15:07
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Are you a bad enough dude to buy NYMT?Bored As gently caress posted:Watching CNBC right now. Guy said Goldman predicts the S&P to be lowest at 2000, then back up to 3200 at the end of the year. If anyone can pump the markets before the election, it's Trump.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:12
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greasyhands posted:I feel like im in crazyland where you can clearly loving see what is about to happen well before it happens, which is very weird in this market. Im starting to develop a psychological bubble theory based around guys like Dalio adopting a “the market is smarter than me so i just go along with the market” attitude coupled with the explosion in passive “you cant pick stocks” mindset and we’ve ended up in an environment where you can see what is coming but everyone looks around and waits for everyone else to do something or just puts their head down and says “i stay invested no matter what” until the pain gets so great they are forced out- which is probably what is happening now. greasyhands posted:If you buy a stock 75% off of its high, and you assume the company is not going out of business or restructuring and will eventually recover. This is quite the assumption. Everyone do your due diligence and don’t buy companies that are heavily in debt with negative earnings/cash flow just because they are “cheap”. I know we haven’t seen it much in the recent bull market but bankruptcy is not some mythical fairy tale.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:14
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Bored As gently caress posted:Watching CNBC right now. Guy said Goldman predicts the S&P to be lowest at 2000, then back up to 3200 at the end of the year. Saying this sort of poo poo should be a crime, ffs. Edit: both of my OTM at open casino puts are now ITM or almost ITM. PENN is taking a massive beating even as the SP cuts losses a bit. Feeling real bad for casino workers right now. Edit 2: IV is still real high and VOL is kinda low, especially for BYD, so I think I'll have to wait till the stock falls for a few days before the put itself starts gaining some real value dpkg chopra fucked around with this message at 15:20 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 15:14
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This is bottom-ish right here, and we’ll be past corona panic in about a month. Mark it, dude. VIX headed down despite the market making GBS threads. Oil at $25, it will not get cheaper for anything more than a panic day or two. We’re there, boys. Buy some KSS, jesus christ it hasnt been this cheap since the 90s
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Mar 18, 2020 15:16
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Agronox posted:I think we're getting there. But like you said earlier--on an absolute basis the market as a whole still isn't "cheap." And the E part of the P/E ratio is going to get whacked, HARD, in a lot of industries. As of Friday I am also net short; today was the first day my account as a whole was green despite the red in the streets. Right now I'm looking at specific oversold things to buy and still not pulling the trigger. Right now I'm planning to hold onto all my shorts as they're doing well and I don't think we're at the end, and using a little bit of my margin to write verticals to leg into net iron condors with short expiry. Premiums are ridiculous and you can get positions open outside our current price trends at 20-50% of capital at risk, so I plan to do that to get some more bearish exposure and some liquidity without having to close up the bigger shorts.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:17
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nelson posted:This is quite the assumption. Everyone do your due diligence and don’t buy companies that are heavily in debt with negative earnings/cash flow just because they are “cheap”. I know we haven’t seen it much in the recent bull market but bankruptcy is not some mythical fairy tale. I almost put a whole aside about this but i got lazy. Assume 1 out of 3 companies go bankrupt, your returns are still exceptional. If you put $10k into 3 companies that are down 75% off ATH and one of them goes out of business while the other 2 take part in the next business cycle and eventually surpass previous ATH (this is what stocks do over time...) you still make $80k on a $30k investment which over 5 years annualizes out to over 20% per annum. This is the cool math on buying distressed stuff- there is room for failure! Now if you think 50%+ of these large established businesses are going out of business or restructuring then by all means short away as we are hosed (we are not hosed by coronavirus)
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Mar 18, 2020 15:23
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LLCoolJD posted:China is reporting that a Japanese flu treatment, faviparivir ("Avigan") shows effectiveness at treating Coronavirus (better lung outcomes, 4 days versus 11 to test negative). Got a link? Nvm. Found it
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Mar 18, 2020 15:24
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greasyhands posted:This is bottom-ish right here, and we’ll be past corona panic in about a month. Mark it, dude. VIX headed down despite the market making GBS threads. Oil at $25, it will not get cheaper for anything more than a panic day or two. We’re there, boys. Buy some KSS, jesus christ it hasnt been this cheap since the 90s
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Mar 18, 2020 15:28
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greasyhands posted:This is bottom-ish right here, and we’ll be past corona panic in about a month. Mark it, dude. VIX headed down despite the market making GBS threads. Oil at $25, it will not get cheaper for anything more than a panic day or two. We’re there, boys. Buy some KSS, jesus christ it hasnt been this cheap since the 90s idk man, nobody's going to be shopping for two months min. They have an online store? F'n USO in the 5s. Guzzoline will be cheap for our war rigs.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:29
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greasyhands posted:This is bottom-ish right here, and we’ll be past corona panic in about a month. Mark it, dude. Hopefully! Hit Man posted:Got a link? Sorry was reading from my desktop and posting from my phone. https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/18/japanese-flu-drug-appears-effective-in-coronavirus-treatment-in-chinese-clinical-trials/ quote:The tests showed a reduction in the period during which patients tested positive for the new coronavirus from 11 days down to just four, and showed improvements in the lung condition of around 91 percent of patients treated with favipiravir, compared to just 62 percent for those without among the trial participants.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:31
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Why the gently caress would Mnuchin come out and talk about 20% unemployment what the gently caress is wrong with these guys?
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Mar 18, 2020 15:33
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greasyhands posted:This is bottom-ish right here, and we’ll be past corona panic in about a month. I hope you're right, but really fear you're wrong. This corona poo poo is going to last 12 to 18 months, and the death toll at the end will be something that hasn't been seen in 100 years. I will be thrilled to be wrong, but I'm pessimistic.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:33
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Starting a position in SYY today, gonna go 100 shares at a time till it bottoms out. They’re like, all the restaurants. Interesting play, I like it. I'm in. edit, DD: my girlfriend's father & brother own 3 restaurants in lower CT near NYC - they just shut their doors yesterday for a tbd amount of time. GramCracker fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 15:35
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greasyhands posted:Why the gently caress would Mnuchin come out and talk about 20% unemployment what the gently caress is wrong with these guys? To scare fiscal conservative Senators (what few there are left) into voting for gigantic stimulus packages.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:35
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greasyhands posted:This is bottom-ish right here, and we’ll be past corona panic in about a month. Mark it, dude. VIX headed down despite the market making GBS threads. Oil at $25, it will not get cheaper for anything more than a panic day or two. We’re there, boys. Buy some KSS, jesus christ it hasnt been this cheap since the 90s Mark it down! We have a bottom(-ish) call for SPY at 2430 and oil at 25. I am nowhere near confident enough to make a prediction... I don't think you're right on this one, but I hope you are.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:35
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Agronox posted:Mark it down! We have a bottom(-ish) call for SPY at 2430 and oil at 25. I don't know where the bottom is, but I know that if oil stays at 24 for two months, 2400 ain't the bottom.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:37
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skipdogg posted:I hope you're right, but really fear you're wrong. This corona poo poo is going to last 12 to 18 months, and the death toll at the end will be something that hasn't been seen in 100 years. You are 100% already wrong. S. Korea established the real mortality rate with their thorough testing (i believe s korea is at about 0.6% mortality). China is already mostly past it. Its a severe cold, it isn’t what you perversely hope it to be. It will of course linger for a long time (maybe permanently, it may just be another of 100s of coronaviruses that are just part of our lives) but people are going to move on very quickly once the panic subsides. Lots of people i know (and people in this thread) already trying to figure out how to get w cheap vacation. This is generationally ludicrous panic
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Mar 18, 2020 15:38
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greasyhands posted:This is bottom-ish right here, and we’ll be past corona panic in about a month. Mark it, dude. VIX headed down despite the market making GBS threads. Oil at $25, it will not get cheaper for anything more than a panic day or two. We’re there, boys. Buy some KSS, jesus christ it hasnt been this cheap since the 90s I'm not a super smart investor, but KSS is now down to a 3.8x PE. That seems insanely cheap for a big footprint store. I can't imagine this is big sales time of year for them anyways. They could bounce back great in a year.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:39
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greasyhands posted:You are 100% already wrong. S. Korea established the real mortality rate with their thorough testing (i believe s korea is at about 0.6% mortality). China is already mostly past it. Its a severe cold, it isn’t what you perversely hope it to be. It will of course linger for a long time (maybe permanently, it may just be another of 100s of coronaviruses that are just part of our lives) but people are going to move on very quickly once the panic subsides My dude South Korea's numbers are low because there are still a lot of infected people who may still die, and because they're catching an unusually high number of asymptomatics cause their testing regime is so good. In fact the current as of today death rate in SK is .9%, which is still about 10x as deadly as an especially bad flu season, and there are still lots of hospitalizations in the future waffle fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 15:39
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greasyhands posted:You are 100% already wrong. S. Korea established the real mortality rate with their thorough testing (i believe s korea is at about 0.6% mortality). China is already mostly past it. Its a severe cold, it isn’t what you perversely hope it to be. It will of course linger for a long time (maybe permanently, it may just be another of 100s of coronaviruses that are just part of our lives) but people are going to move on very quickly once the panic subsides. Lots of people i know (and people in this thread) already trying to figure out how to get w cheap vacation. This is generationally ludicrous panic That is not the problem, the problem is hospitals are going to be 100% full, people that have a life threatening but livable with hospitalization are going to die. Heart attack? sorry no free bed you have to try and recover at home, and you're dead.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:40
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